As a general matter, for the 2010-2011 season we have won 45% of our home PL matches, drawn 27% and lost 27%. And before anyone asks, I have no idea as to where the odd percentage point might be located. My math sucks, which is why I am not a doctor.* That and I get queasy at the sight of blood.
As to West Brom specifically, over the entire history of English league football, when playing at home Rovers have won 33 matches, drawn 10 and lost 11 against West Brom. Since 2002 we have played them four times at home in league matches, winning once and drawing three times. We have not lost to them at home in a league match since 1991. Based on past performance (which is not a guarantee of future results, per my financial planner) we have a high probability of getting a win or draw from this match. And a win would place us nine points from safety, with 14 matches left until the end of the season.
As an indication of the overall quality of our respective squads, Blackburn has an (alleged) 1 in 2000 chance of winning the PL. By contrast, West Brom has an (probably accurate) 1 in 5000 chance of winning the PL. Now I personally think that the Rovers chances of winning it all have been vastly underrated (have the odds makers seen our thrashing of Liverpool? We should be at least 1 in 100), but in seriousness I would agree that we are at least 2 1/2 times better a squad than West Brom. More so with the recent additions of RSC and Jermaine Jones.**
As an additional point in comparison, we are 10th in the league at home, based on an 11th on attack (averaging 1.36 goals) and a very good 6th at defense (conceding .91 goals) for home games. By contrast, West Brom is 16th in the PL for away matches, based on a surprising 8th on attack (scoring an average of 1.18) but a terrible 18th on defense (conceding an average of 2.18) for away games. So I vote we go at them and exploit their lousy defense.****
So Mr. Kean, a win would not only be greatly appreciated but is expected. No pressure.
And as a newly minted football pundit*****, my predition is a 3-1 win for the Rovers, as the above stats don't, in my view, take into account our addition of RSC or Jones, or the (alleged) imminient arrival of the (alleged) footballing genius and (alleged) motivator extraordinaire Maradona, or the (alleged) any day now arrival of an (alleged) marquee signing. I hope there is enough alleges in there to protect myself from any potential suit for defamation as (alleged) persons (allegedly) speaking (allegedly) lack free speech rights in the (alleged) country (allegedly) known as England. Though you folks did get the best (no alleged necessary) football league in the world, so perhaps its a fair trade.
* Disclaimer: All data presented herein is based: 1) on league home matches only, not cups; and, 2) my perhaps flawed reading of tables and charts, which is yet another reason I am not a doctor. Though I did sleep in a Holiday Inn once or twice.
** In the spirit of show business (and football is close enough as fans demand that they be "entertained"), here's hoping that Jermaine Jones breaks a leg on his Rovers debut. Preferably one of the opposition's.*** Though it is to be hoped that EHD makes appropriately contrite and sympathetic noises, and perhaps even considers sending chocolates and flowers to the poor unfortunate who forgot that football is (allegedly) a contact sport.
*** Thankfully Steven Reid is out injured, per West Brom's website, as he would have been a prime candidate. I like the man's heart and am sorry his fitness problems precluded extending his contract with the Rovers.
**** Of course, my ineptitude at football tactics is one of many reasons I am not a PL manager. But if I can win just one tournament with my U10 girls, I'm sure West Ham might hire me.
Or perhaps I would be better off pursuing a career as agent. I have two 9 year old girls who are natural athletes and would doubtless improve West Ham's attacking options.
***** What can I say. I'm exploring career opportunities. This is a test round as I would like to someday do a Newcastle match as: 1) I hate Newcastle; 2) I know a Newcastle fan who might answer questions (though he only speaks in an intoxicated state); and, 3) the only other PL fans I know like either ManU (which poses a problem as I consider myself a gentleman and refuse to associate with that sort) or Blackpool (and he's age 6, so he might have to answer in crayon).
Edited by Steve Moss, 19 January 2011 - 05:29 AM.