Four wins in a row mean we go into the final game with momentum, but over six games Millwall have a slightly better return than us (15/18 compared to 13/18). Millwall have also won their last two, so are going into the final day with the wind in their sails as well. Boro's form continues to be erratic, and they go into the final day having lost and drawn their last two games.
Should Bristol City lose on Monday, then both themselves and Coventry go into the final day having lost their last two matches, both stumbling badly at the finish line. They could conceivably both fall out of the playoffs with Millwall, Rovers or Boro replacing them.
If Bristol City lose on Monday against Leeds then it leaves two spots open on the final day to be contested between themselves, us, Coventry, Millwall and Boro. If they draw then Rovers and Millwall could still overtake them, but they'd be out of Boro's reach. If they win then 5th is theirs no matter what. Their final game is Preston at home, and with Preston in dire form (1 win in 14) it's hard to see anything other than a home win. Pressure can do funny things to a team, though.
Taking a win against Leeds on Monday out of the equation - if Bristol draw against Leeds then another draw against Preston would almost certainly be enough for them to get a playoff place. Neither Rovers nor Boro could catch them at that point, and it would take a Millwall beating Burnley by 8 or 9 goals for them to overtake Bristol, as both would be on 69 points. A loss would give both Millwall and Rovers the opportunity to overtake if both win their matches, but Rovers would need to overcome a -3 GD - so if Bristol lose 1-0, Rovers would need to win 3-0 (not sure what would happen if we both finished on the same GD).
Should Bristol lose against Leeds, not much changes in terms of the above outcomes, but a Rovers victory alongside a Preston victory could see us leapfrog Bristol without needing to overcome GD, as we'd be a point ahead of them.
Coventry face Boro. A win for Coventry sees them in the playoffs no matter what (unless Millwall absolutely wreck Bumley). A draw means Boro miss out, but Coventry would be overtaken if Rovers or Millwall win (there are theoreticals around Bristol City losing badly in their last two games, meaning they'd go below Coventry on GD, but let's leave that as unlikely).
A loss would mean Coventry drop out of the playoffs. Boro would get into 6th if both Rovers and Millwall fail to win. Boro have far superior GD to Millwall, so if Millwall drew they would fall behind Boro, whilst Rovers would be a point behind them.
Millwall play the six-fingered ones away. A win would see them into the playoffs if Coventry draw or lose (with Bristol it would depend on their result against Leeds on Monday). A draw is unlikely to see them jump above Bristol, unless Bristol get majorly hammered by Leeds and/or Preston. It would put them above Coventry if Coventry lost, however, as Coventry would have lost to Boro, that would put Boro ahead of Millwall on GD and therefore Millwall would miss out.
So basically, a draw is highly unlikely to get Millwall into the playoffs, as it would require Bristol City to get their GD annihilated in their last two matches. A loss will end their chances, as even if a ridiculous goal swing happened (eg Millwall losing 1-0 but Coventry losing 6-0), Boro would jump ahead of them into 6th.
As far as Rovers are concerned - we play Sheffield United away. A nothing match for Sheff Utd, who may rest some players in preparation for the playoffs. If we win and both Coventry and Millwall fail to win, then we're in the playoffs.
If one of Coventry or Millwall win, then we would only get into the playoffs if Bristol City at the very least lose and draw their last two matches. Lose and draw means it would come down to GD between us and them, two losses for Bristol would mean we'd go above them.
Again, though, their last game is Preston, so... very low chances of this happening. A draw would see us miss out. Why? Because it would require Coventry to lose - and Coventry play Boro. If Boro win, they go above us by one point. Goes without saying if we lose then we miss out, but can only drop as low as 9th (if Boro win or draw).
For Boro, playing Coventry away, only a win will sneak them into the playoffs. They'd also be relying on Rovers and Millwall failing to win. If both Rovers and Millwall draw, then a Boro win would take them into 6th on account of their superior GD. If either Millwall or Rovers win, then Boro can only get into the playoffs if Bristol City lose their last two games against Leeds and Preston, as they would overtake Bristol on GD, and the final table would read either Millwall or Rovers in 5th, and Boro in 6th. This is a an unlikely outcome, but technically possible.
I think I've got that all correct. Possible I've miscalculated somewhere though, in which case I have just wasted 30 minutes of my life.
Roll on next weekend…
