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Looks like another terrorist attack in France after a machete-wielding nut was gunned down trying to get into the Louvre. It's funny how with all the terrorist attacks we've seen in Europe, they

Have to say one of my favourite bits of the Inauguration was seeing Eugene Goodman. He was the Capitol Police officer who was being chased upstairs towards the Senate chambers, glanced and saw th

I've tried to behave myself of late but cheeto stained manchild? You are a total disgrace. Your malignant, fascist, sinister, dangerous left-wing horse-**** is everything that's wrong with modern soci

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So its the Indiana primary today and Trump kicks off proceedings by repeating unsubstantiated claims from a National Enquirer story that said Ted Cruz's father, Rafael Cruz, had links to John F. Kennedy's assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald!

Only in the USA!

Looks like Trumps going to walk this, if he does thats game over for Cruz, Trumps won the race to be the candidate for president of the USA, absolutely bonkers.

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My money would be on Clinton still. I think some of the republican base won't vote for Trump and would rather have four years of Clinton than Trump so they can rebuild and try again in four years time.

I would also put money on Trump coming out with something highly controversial in a debate towards Clinton, probably something highly sexist or seen as bullying that drives women voters to Clinton. Clinton does have a problem with women voters but it's not as bad as Trump's problem with that demographic.

If Trump gets in he will IMO be a one term President and will go down as a one of the worst.

Edited by RibbleValleyRover
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I've posted before on this, but there's not a chance he will 'crush' Hillary Clinton.

The Republicans have got weaker in states they used to expect to win and are now seen as semi- safe Democrat- Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, plus the big population states that the Dems have sewn up- California, New York, New Jersey, the New England block.

That means Trump MUST win Florida and Ohio just to scrape over the line and the changing demographics in Florida aren't good for the Republicans.

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I think some are completely misjudging the mood in the USA.

The U.K. Prime Minister now has to contemplate an apology to Trump, as a few months ago a Trump victory was uninmangeable. http://heatst.com/politics/cameron-cringing-over-trump-insult/

Now some are claiming that Trump can't possibly win against Hillary, basically repeating their fantastical denials and ignoring that he's beating her in the most recent poll.

There is a very real prospect of a President Trump come November.

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I think some are completely misjudging the mood in the USA.

The U.K. Prime Minister now has to contemplate an apology to Trump, as a few months ago a Trump victory was uninmangeable. http://heatst.com/politics/cameron-cringing-over-trump-insult/

Now some are claiming that Trump can't possibly win against Hillary, basically repeating their fantastical denials and ignoring that he's beating her in the most recent poll.

There is a very real prospect of a President Trump come November.

I live in the USA and I'm not misjudging the mood. The Republican party with Trump as its nominee will not win the presidential election in 2016.

Mitt Romney lost to a vulnerable Obama in 2012. The post mortem from that defeat was that Republicans need to be more inclusive of women, Hispanic, and black voters. Trump has done the exact opposite and will continue to do so. The Republicans need to win all the red states they won in 2012, and take some of the blue ones away from the Democrats. This will not happen. If anything the 2016 will be more blue.

Electoral+College+Map+2012.PNG

Edited by speeeeeeedie
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I think some are completely misjudging the mood in the USA.

The U.K. Prime Minister now has to contemplate an apology to Trump, as a few months ago a Trump victory was uninmangeable. http://heatst.com/politics/cameron-cringing-over-trump-insult/

Now some are claiming that Trump can't possibly win against Hillary, basically repeating their fantastical denials and ignoring that he's beating her in the most recent poll.

There is a very real prospect of a President Trump come November.

Then the American people will deserve what they get.

I haven't seen anything that suggests Trump is going to be anything other than a car crash of a President. Even if he does a Bush and surrounds himself with highly talented people he's going to make Bush become revered with his antics.

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I'm a bit of an amateur psephologist and the most important factor in elections is demographics. Why is London the only region of the UK where the Labour Party is massively increasing its vote, for example?

The Republican party NEEDS non white voters if it is going to win, even Texas is becoming less safe for them at each election as it becomes more Hispanic.

Romney cleaned up with white males in 2012 and still lost heavily, Trumps's problem with women of all races is another hurdle.

I'm not in the States so can't judge the atmosphere and there is no doubt that Trump has a sizeable constituency, but purely looking at the stats I doubt it can be enough as he won't win most large states that have the majority of the electoral college votes and is too heavily reliant on white males.

This may change over the campaign but he has a hell of a lot to do.

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He'd be a blond Berlosconi, and 'Murica would be a joke country. It will be interesting to see what the GOP Congress people would do if he won. Go along with him, or reject every policy and shut down govenment again because they're bad losers. We know what's going to happen if Clinton won and had a Republican Congress.

The US political/economic aristocracy can be very vindictive.

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I've posted before on this, but there's not a chance he will 'crush' Hillary Clinton.

The Republicans have got weaker in states they used to expect to win and are now seen as semi- safe Democrat- Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, plus the big population states that the Dems have sewn up- California, New York, New Jersey, the New England block.

That means Trump MUST win Florida and Ohio just to scrape over the line and the changing demographics in Florida aren't good for the Republicans.

I think some are completely misjudging the mood in the USA.

The U.K. Prime Minister now has to contemplate an apology to Trump, as a few months ago a Trump victory was uninmangeable. http://heatst.com/politics/cameron-cringing-over-trump-insult/

Now some are claiming that Trump can't possibly win against Hillary, basically repeating their fantastical denials and ignoring that he's beating her in the most recent poll.

There is a very real prospect of a President Trump come November.

Which poll is that? All the polls i have seen have Hillary absolutely destroying Trump.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/05/04/hillary-clinton-widens-lead-over-donald-trump-in-poll/?_r=0

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Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And for those of you who are shocked, I'd bet a $1 that he crushes Hillary Clinton in the general election.

I see you backing up your views with the princely sum of $1 which is probably actually wise as Trump is a ridiculous choice by the GOP and deserves to be handed the biggest election defeat of all time. I'd love to know how you expect him to win when he's already insulted 50 per cent or more of the population (women) and is fighting a woman for the presidency.

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The American people put Obama in the white house, no way are they going to put Trump in, far to many sensible voters to allow that to happen.

He's done tremendously well to get this far, got to give him respect for that, reminds me a bit of Farage, speaks his mind, says what a lot of people are thinking, stuff that mainstream politicians just can't say.

Hillary all the way, shes a good woman, experienced and would make a good president in my book.

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Female vote could be huge, first female president and all that.

Yup. She has played a tight game and is electable by everyone except strong conservatives.

Trump on the other hand has managed to alienate Latinos, Blacks, Women and even some of his conservative base. I am intrigued to see what strategy he unveils to win them back over.

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I live in the USA and I'm not misjudging the mood. The Republican party with Trump as its nominee will not win the presidential election in 2016.

Which state? And I'll also bet you a $1 you are wrong, donated to a charity of the winners choice.

As a starting point, people were saying the exact same thing about Trump's chances to take the Republican nomination 9 months ago. And Trump has already received more votes in the Republican primary than any other candidate in modern history, despite the number of opponents he has faced. Republican energy is high, Democrat energy is low; millions more Republicans have voted so far than Democrats. Hillary's negatives are as high as Trump's. Despite this, Hillary is deadlocked with Bernie, and people are voting for Trump despite his negatives (unlike Hillary) as his personality is considered secondary to other issues. The polls average Hillary winning by 7-8% follow Trump being savaged by every Republican out there ($750 million in negative ads have aired against him already), and that internal savaging is coming to an end. David Plouffe, President Obama's campaign manager, has been consistently sounding the alarm that Trump is a far more credible than they're willing to acknowledge and is quite capable of cutting into the Democrat base. Nate Silver has admitted he got the Republican race completely wrong as variables are at play which have not been present in any modern election. Continetti has been warning that Trump is the only candidate who can attack Hillary from both the left and the right, and that Trump is fully capable of capturing a majority of union members support. Smiley is warning that Trump could significantly cut into the black vote.

The May 2 Rasmussen poll shows Trump beating Clinton by 2, the first reversal in the prior poll trend that Clinton beats Trump. In fairness, however, a recent CNN poll shows Clinton winning by 13.

I, for one, am looking forward to this election cycle. I believe Trump will only get stronger and Clinton weaker, especially when; 1) Trump begins to talk to Independents and Democrats (now that the Republican primary is over); 2) they begin to debate; and, 3) the Obamacare premium increase notices go out this fall.

I see you backing up your views with the princely sum of $1 which is probably actually wise as Trump is a ridiculous choice by the GOP and deserves to be handed the biggest election defeat of all time. I'd love to know how you expect him to win when he's already insulted 50 per cent or more of the population (women) and is fighting a woman for the presidency.

Sorry, Jim. I'm not much of a gambler. The most I'll bet on any issue is a $1.

And at the end of the day if you think women will vote for Hillary because of their reproductive organs, then I think that's awfully sexist of you.

Yup. She has played a tight game and is electable by everyone except strong conservatives.

Trump on the other hand has managed to alienate Latinos, Blacks, Women and even some of his conservative base. I am intrigued to see what strategy he unveils to win them back over.

We will see. :tu:

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  • Moderation Lead

I just don't feel he's anywhere near moderate enough to win an election, though obviously I could be very wrong, I've not been to America for 8 years now and the mood could well have changed significantly.

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As I said, he's got a sizeable vote, but will he win Ohio and Florida? Because all this is moot if he can't.

Agreed. I've been reading that he actually needs to win most of: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire.

But one thing Trump does is scramble the electoral map. How it ends, I don't know but I suspect some party stalwarts on both sides are due for a shock.

The two living former GOP presidents won't be voting for Trump. Many of his own party hate him so I don't see how he can win over the wider electorate.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3920674e-121a-11e6-839f-2922947098f0.html#slide0

I think your working under the same assumptions Nate Silver did. And he admits he got it absolutely wrong for three reasons.

First, Trump does not operate along a left to right spectrum. He is all over the place ideologically, everything is negotiable. He operates along a cultural spectrum. That could play havoc among the Democratic base, just as it did with the Republican base.

Second, Trump doesn't run away from controversy. Unlike most politicians, he'll actually create it for the free air time. Once created, he doesn't back down and pushes through it. Rinse and repeat. Modern politicians tend to steer clear of controversy but Trump seems to court it. This tactic is actually a throwback to old school politics of the "I don't care what you say about me, just spell my name right" variety.

Third, while his creating chaos modus operandi contributes to his high negatives, it also demonstrates time and again that he is a fighter. And people will vote for someone they have a negative opinion of, if they think he's got a brain and spine and will get them some of what they want. Both Democrat and Republican voters are cynical and jaded. They have no faith in the elected class. If Trump can deliver half a loaf, well that's better than the none they've been getting.

And that's why statisticians like Nate Silver have been getting it wrong as someone with high negatives like Trump shouldn't be winning.

Camille Paglia has written a new article voicing the opinion that Trump may well crush Hillary. She hasn't really been tested this primary as: 1) she spent a of of effort keeping the high end competitors out; and, 2) the Democrat candidates have taken the position that it would be counter-productive to challenge the basic competency of a woman. Despite these advantages, she can't put away an avowed socialist. She can't energize the base. She's viewed as a bitter, angry woman who hates men. This will hurt her among both men and women in the general election, regardless of political affiliation. As Trump is not a wall flower and will dare anything and challenge anyone, he'll come across as the strong (even if distasteful leader) and Hillary will come across as the out of touch, incompetent shrew. People will be upset with Trump's rude behavior toward Hillary, but they'll vote for him anyway.

She actually ran this ad against Trump, without any clue as to how it would be received in middle America. She's living in a bubble and it shows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQfdbWGmqjM

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We will see. :tu:

We will Steve. No need for a bet, you can save your $1.

The media wants the race to be close so people will tune in. Therefore they'll keep pumping out stories promoting a tight race, and giving Trump and his idiocy airtime. They did it in 2008 when a blind man on a galloping horse could see that Obama was going to trounce McCain and crazy lady. There maybe $4 billion spent between now and election day in November. That's a massive pay day for lots of media types.

I will say again that Trump has no chance. He will get lots of votes, but he won't win enough states. Look at the map I posted yesterday. Those colours will not change. They may even get more blue.

Downstream candidates won't touch him. Who will be his running mate? Racism, sexism, and isolationism will win votes within the Republican party but not with the USA as a whole. The Republicans have been doing a good job with Senate, House, and Statewide offices. They aren't going to let Trump ruin their hopes of keeping those in their corner.

They'll end up running 2 separate campaigns. They'll let Trump get hammered, and put their money into Senate, House, and Governors races to keep the balance when the Democrats win.

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First, Trump does not operate along a left to right spectrum. He is all over the place ideologically, everything is negotiable. He operates along a cultural spectrum. That could play havoc among the Democratic base, just as it did with the Republican base.

Trump isn't really a Republican in that he eschews many GOP principles and policies but I think you're forgetting how tribal people when it comes to politics (like sport). There are people who will always vote Labour or Conservative here no matter the state of the party or the leader and I think it's true in the US too.

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