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Agreed. I've been reading that he actually needs to win most of: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire.

Demographics are increasingly turning against the GOP in Florida, Colorado and Nevada, so he's going to have a tough job with those states.

Could have a chance in Iowa and Ohio. New Hampshire was a Republican state until fairly recently (Kerry and Obama have since won it for the Dems), can he win it back or will they continue to vote Democrat with the rest of New England?

He is definitely gaining traction in the 'rust belt' states, but this looks like this will be negated by his poor numbers with minorities in states like Florida.

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Who he picks as his running mate will be interesting and will say a lot about how much the GOP hierarchy is willing to back him. Is it true tonight he is going to reveal who that is going to be?

I think it would be dangerous to completely rule him out but it would take amazing set of circumstances to go all his way to pull it off. Clinton is going to have to have a spectacular meltdown or incident for it to happen. I know we have the email scandal/investigation but if it was a big enough smoking gun it surely would have happened by now.

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Who he picks as his running mate will be interesting and will say a lot about how much the GOP hierarchy is willing to back him. Is it true tonight he is going to reveal who that is going to be?

I haven't heard that. I have heard he wants to make a decision in the near term, that Ben Carson is on his selection committee, and that John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Jeff Sessions and Newt Gingrich are all on the short list.

I have read from various papers that he's earmarked Rudy Giuliani as homeland security, Chris Christie as Attorney General, and Ben Carson as health secretary.

All of those would be very good choices.

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House Speaker Paul Ryan has just said he can't endorse Trump right now...

A lot of people, including Speaker Paul Ryan, claim that Donald Trump is not a conservative and so they can't support him. On some issues that's true, depending on one's definition of conservatism.

But the GOPe in DC, such as Ryan, hold the exact same view as Hillary Clinton on issues such as trade, immigration and foreign policy. For that reason, the GOPe seems to actually prefer Hillary Clinton. Probably as that's where the real money is at.

What is the conservative position on trade, immigration and foreign policy?

I would suggest that trade deals are conservative if they put the interests of America, American citizens, American workers, first. Under that metric, Trump is conservative and Ryan (and Hillary) are not.

I would suggest that an immigration policy is conservative if it is one that controls our nation's borders. A nation without borders is no nation. Under that metric, Trump is conservative and Ryan (and Hillary) are not.

I would suggest that a foreign policy is conservative if it's first, foremost and primary objective is the national security of the USA. Military adventures to plant democracies in regions where they have never existed and are not culturally likely is not conservative. It's a drain on our Treasury, and has resulted in the loss of many young American lives for no discernible national gain. Under that metric, Trump is conservative and Ryan (and Hillary) are not.

It seems like the so-called conservative Republicans and all Democrats are not only in favor of free trade, the movement of goods globally, but are also in favor of the free movement of people (labor) on a global basis. I can see how this policy would be of great benefit to multi-national corporations. However, the consequence is the undermining of functional borders, environmental policies, and labor regulations (impacting our standards of living), which undermines the concept of the nation state acting for the betterment of it's people. I do not believe that unfettered globalism is a conservative principle. Under that metric, Trump is conservative and Ryan (and Hillary) are not.

Donald Trump's major sin, in the eyes of the GOPe, is that he offers an alternative to the accepted political and economic narrative that has been embraced by both parties. In many ways, the problem is not that Donald Trump is not a conservative (on these issues that's exactly what he is) but that the GOPe is not.

So Speaker Ryan's comments are more an indictment of the Republican Party and it's leadership (including Speaker Ryan) then they are of Donald Trump.

Edited by Steve Moss
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The most interesting bet is whether Trump can win more votes than Romney did.

Trump has lost a lot of the GOP base that is never going to vote for him, especially the women. But he will gain votes from blue collar males across the country. Now that's worth a bet.

President Clinton will do well.

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The most interesting bet is whether Trump can win more votes than Romney did.

Trump has lost a lot of the GOP base that is never going to vote for him, especially the women. But he will gain votes from blue collar males across the country. Now that's worth a bet.

President Clinton will do well.

Trump has already won more votes than Romney did in the entirety of the presidential primary, and Trump still has more states to go. This is a good sign.

Whether this will transfer to the general election, we'll find out.

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I have to say that if I did have a vote I would definitely vote for Trump - he says what most people really think and are too cowardly to say.

Also, as they say - better the devil you know that the one you don't......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IOpbj8ajZs :mellow:

I can't imagine anyone sane voting for that psychopathic wench. The land of the free insane. Go get my gun.

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Trump has already won more votes than Romney did in the entirety of the presidential primary, and Trump still has more states to go. This is a good sign.

Whether this will transfer to the general election, we'll find out.

This is an incredibly similar comment to saying Corbyn brought thousands mpre member to the Labour party.

Boosting your base does very little. Election are won by being persuasive across the ailse.

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Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, previously predicated many months ago that Trump would beat out his rivals for the GOP nomination.

He's now predicting that Trump will beat Hillary Clinton in November. His reasoning is not flattering towards Trump, but recognizes that Trump is a master manipulator.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-07/dilbert-creators-6-reasons-why-trump-will-win-landslide-november

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Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, previously predicated many months ago that Trump would beat out his rivals for the GOP nomination.

He's now predicting that Trump will beat Hillary Clinton in November. His reasoning is not flattering towards Trump, but recognizes that Trump is a master manipulator.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-07/dilbert-creators-6-reasons-why-trump-will-win-landslide-november

The analysis of Trump's method strike me as true, very funny, and a sad indictment of those who are wooed by his empty psychobabble.

Not sure Adam's diagnosis of victory is that strong though. In the primary he was playing to a gallery of primarily white males who have a penchant for authoritarian alpha leadership. The general election its a totally different crowd, majority women votes, a huge proportion of ethnic voters.

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People like Trump always look good when they're preaching to the converted. Then the election comes and the silent majority have their say.

Like the last UK election

;)

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I have to say that if I did have a vote I would definitely vote for Trump - he says what most people really think and are too cowardly to say.

He doesn't. He spouts bull after bull, then when he gets caught he starts with personal attacks followed with more bull, coupled with absolutely no concrete ideas on how to actually govern. He just comes out with tripe that suits him at whatever particular event he happens to be at.

Those following him are impenetrable. They'll vote for him no matter what. However, that number isn't big enough to win enough states to get him elected. Mattyblue, Joeybignose, Jim, and I are all saying the same thing; there are too many non-white, non-male, non-old voters who will cast their vote against him.

Mitt Romney is now thinking about running as a 3rd candidate. If he does it will all but guarantee a Democrat win. The Republican top brass are beginning to think about the future. Send in Romney as the sacrificial lamb this time. Regroup and fight on in 2020. They will have years to perfect their attacks and get their house in order.

Those Republicans lower down the ballot would love this as those in close races won't want to be aligned with Trump as it will lose them their seat.

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Those Republicans lower down the ballot would love this as those in close races won't want to be aligned with Trump as it will lose them their seat.

Even the oldest of the old guard are getting nervous. With Latino registration skyrocketing in Arizona, John McCain has said he is worried for his seat. Unthinkable in any other election cycle.

The thing is the GOP may want to retreat and regroup for 2020, but by then the Supreme Court may be lost to them for a generation. Exciting times for the more progressive amongst us.

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People like Trump always look good when they're preaching to the converted. Then the election comes and the silent majority have their say.

The problem is that the "silent" majority might actually favor Trump.

Two weeks ago, Clinton lead Trump by double digits. That gap is collapsing nationally. http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160505-20160510/type/day

It's a statistical tie in 3 swing states. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/trump-clinton-florida-ohio-pennsylvania-222994

More and more data is coming out that a significant number of Sanders supporters would prefer Trump over Hillary, mostly because Trump talks about bringing back jobs, something that neither the other Republicans nor Hillary (all globalists) seemed particularly focused on.

It was amusing to see Ted Cruz (who I preferred over Trump: Walker> Carson > Cruz > Trump > Hillary, was/is the path I charted) give a speech in the Senate hallway his first day back to work as a Senator. Half the lines it looks like he stole from Trump (mostly talking about jobs). I couldn't help but think that someone has learned and is preparing for 2020.

As some clever politician once said "It's the economy, stupid". And with a recession possible next year, I suspect that a majority of the public, even many of the minorities, will ultimately go with the businessman no matter how much they dislike him personally. http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-11/congrats-on-winning-the-white-house-here-s-your-recession

Edited by Steve Moss
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Like the UK, a few swing areas will decide the election.

I can imagine more liberal and/or states with high levels of non white voters will go heavily for the Dems, making safe states like California even more safe. But winning a state by a massive margin doesn't give you any more electoral college votes.

However, if Trump can pull off narrow wins in swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania (states with better demographics for Trump) then who knows what could happen. So I would imagine the Trump campaign will be pouring resources into those two states.

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In the course of three weeks, Clinton's double digit lead over Trump has been erased. He now leads her by three points.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/05/18/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-clinton-both-seen-as-deeply-flawed-candidates.html

It's to be expected somewhat seeing as Trump has won his party's nomination while the Dems battle on. By the way, that same Fox poll has Sanders beating Trump by 4 points. Once Clinton vs. Sanders is finally decided, the Dems will rally strongly behind their candidate, whoever it may be, and she will take back a healthy lead (around 8 points I reckon).

The bad news for Clinton is that she has put Ohio very much back in play.

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Trump +5.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

Edit:

I think this article is representative of the many reasons that Donald Trump will gain traction in even traditional Democrat strongholds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/05/17/you-can-be-fined-for-not-calling-people-ze-or-hir-if-thats-the-pronoun-they-demand-that-you-use/

Edited by Steve Moss
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That article boils down to saying you should address clients by their preferred pronoun. It doesn't seem difficult to me? It is why wjen you fill in forms when you put Mr Ms Mrs etc. I cant see this being a factor of any significance in deciding votes for urban populations used to diversity.

Much more of an issue for the Democrats imo is the Sanders campaign. He needs to down tools and get behind Hilary. Realistically he cannot win now, and if he is really going to try and drive Superdelegates to switch from Hilary to him it could get very messy and the only winner will be Trump.

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