Jump to content

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 16.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • jim mk2

    1677

  • philipl

    1677

  • den

    1284

  • 47er

    1120

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Simply put, without the NHS: I'd never have been born (I'm an IVF baby). I'd have died in the womb (as did the triplets I was supposed to be part of). I'd have died at some point immedi

And I’m going to have a Spanish beer from a Belgian glass, wearing an Italian band t-shirt ordered from a German website, and listening to some Bulgarian europop. You and the rest can stick Brexi

The Tories didn't drag us out of the EU to strengthen workers rights for gods sake - What planet are you on ?

Posted Images

It’s not a bad thing to have had the following realities vividly illustrated:

1) EU/UK trade is, by far, our most important trading partnership.

2) Around 30% of all food consumed in the UK is imported from the EU.
 
3) UK is very reliant on just-in-time supply chains.
 
 
 
Image
 
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tomphil said:

The lorry park caused soley by the French presidents knee jerk to a new corona strain.

 

Not quite. A lot of stockpiling been going on by British companies in anticipation of No Deal. The Covid thing added to the perfect storm. I feel sorry for the poor bastards who'll be stuck here when they should be at home with their families at Christmas. People really are just cattle to the Establishment. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, philipl said:

Too pathetic a comment to be worth a response.

No just better to lie about it in pictures instead.

Like i said you're doing this for a living you've been rumbled. Anti Brexit payroll, 

Brexit brass...

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Not quite. A lot of stockpiling been going on by British companies in anticipation of No Deal. The Covid thing added to the perfect storm. I feel sorry for the poor bastards who'll be stuck here when they should be at home with their families at Christmas. People really are just cattle to the Establishment. 

Daily Express headline this morning referred to "our" lorries blocked by Macron. Never occurred to the numbskulls that the majority are EU-registered and owned with European drivers. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Not quite. A lot of stockpiling been going on by British companies in anticipation of No Deal. The Covid thing added to the perfect storm. I feel sorry for the poor bastards who'll be stuck here when they should be at home with their families at Christmas. People really are just cattle to the Establishment. 

Sadly yes but around half those are just EU drivers on their way back, plenty of them French as well.

2020s Little Napoleon strikes again. Such a French thing to do blocking your own drivers.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, jim mk2 said:

Daily Express headline this morning referred to "our" lorries blocked by Macron. Never occurred to the numbskulls that the majority are EU-registered and owned with European drivers. 

Its just culture wars now. Pick a side, entrench your view and stick your head in the sand. All the while poor people will suffer. Its disgusting really. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, tomphil said:

What's a Star Chamber when it's at home ?

A court used in Tudor times to suppress anything the monarch of the time wanted suppressing. No jury.

Back to today, its a group of lawyers convened by the ERG to scrutinise any deal.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Downing St press conference Thursday morning to announce the deal

Deal includes a transition period of five-and-a-half years during which EU fishing boats will have guaranteed access to UK fishing waters. The EU’s fishing rights will be reduced by 25 per cent compared to now, with the knock on effect of boosting how much British boats can catch.

British officials say the deal is expected to see Britain’s share of the catch in its own waters increase from around a half today to about two-thirds during the transition.

Access to waters after the transition period expires — around the tenth anniversary of the June 2016 Brexit vote — will depend on regular negotiations.

So not quite "paved with gold"

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

Seeing as you are quoting this, can you explain in what way it will be easier and harder.? Cheers

Compared with No Deal, a Trade Agreement lowers the sovereignty of the countries participating in it.

So the WTO wall of tariffs the UK and the EU would have been obliged to put up against each other are reduced.

But much more importantly, by agreeing to adopt to EU standards, the UK deal reduces non-tariff barriers which in practise are far more important than tariffs. So if UK made goods conform to EU standards, nobody in the 27 countries will have any right under EU law to refuse UK goods for non-conformance. That primarily is what makes Trade in the items covered by the Deal easier and indeed possible where No deal wouldn't have done.

Now because the UK is a third country, there are schedules attached to the 600 page EU deal document the EU wrote a year ago which is essentially the deal to be announced today. Be very clear that this is the EU's deal, not a British deal.

Those 1,400 pages of schedules (meaning it is now 2,000 pages long)  list the items which are covered by the deal and how they qualify and are practically dealt with. Because the EU doesn't trust Johnson after the UK attempted to draft legislation to ignore Britain's treaty obligations and break international law, these Schedules will be very specific.

Again remember the British side has been excruciatingly lazy and has written few detailed proposals so these will have been drafted in Brussels. The UK side couldn't write details because the extreme Brexiters would have screamed betrayal so politically the UK shifted all the work and therefore the initiative to Brussels.

 

THE CATCH

The British have also been lazy in the deciding what has been included in the deal.

Let me give you an example. 

Eating potatoes are in the Deal. Selling potatoes for human consumption becomes easier than under No Deal because there is an expectation through legally enforced regulations from Brussels  they conform to EU standards on pest control, age since extraction etc etc

BUT 

The British forgot to include seed potatoes in the Deal.

Scotland grows seed potatoes for planting.

Under No Deal yes there would be tariffs on these items but as a non-food item. They wouldn't have found themselves as they are on 1 January, specifically not in the Schedules- a very different and far worse place to be (or not to be).

With a deal, seed potatoes are not included so will be assumed to have been specifically excluded. This will mean while other goods pass more easily into the EU, the EU will in effect ban seed potatoes because they will be singled out for inspection and WTO tariffs and might even be excluded by a catch all clause within the Deal if the deal is intended to be universal. The Scottish farmers growing seed potatoes will collapse as a result.

That is why a Deal coming into existence makes items outside the Deal more difficult to trade.

Services which are outside the Deal in many respects are therefore excluded and are probably going to be more difficult to sell from the UK to the EU in some respects as a result. From what I know, it will become easier to trade services from within the EU- so British degrees and professional qualifications will be recognised, but individuals and businesses will need in many cases to be physically located within the EU and therefore located inside the EU 27. 

This works the other way of course.

Services sold in the UK by EU companies will have to be domiciled in the UK and will become more difficult to sell in the UK because of the deal.

As the post I quoted explains, the Deal helps the EU in things they have massive advantage in and harms the UK in things the UK has a massive advantage in. However, Brexit voters and Mail headline writers understand tangible things like fish but have no clue about the insurance contract or the financing which enable the boats to go to sea.

So for instance, yesterday Ryanair cut all its UK domestic flights because of a dispute over how domestic its UK operating subsidiary is. You are increasing seeing EasyJet aircraft not having G on their registration because they cannot operate intra EU as British Aircraft.

 

In practise, British commercial and political life now becomes Norwegian with a Deal.

It will be dominated by perpetual negotiations with the EU to amend and extend the Schedules to the Deal. These are now the most important aspect of British life as they are for the Norwegians. But the Norwegians have a Sovereign Wealth Fund whereas the Brits squandered all their oil wealth immediately.

So it is not difficult to foresee Scottish seed potatoes being the first item on the agenda when the perpetual negotiations begin and the EU agreeing. Conversely, the EU see a huge opportunity to move financial services to EU States. What will certainly happen is that growth which would have happened in the UK will happen in the EU.

BUT in every negotiation, the UK will be begging and have no say in the EU decision making which of course will always be for the benefit of EU Member States. The British Government's presence will paradoxically grow in Brussels because of the need to lobby the decision makers.

 

Again once this is moved outside the political domain, all the commercial pressure in the UK will be towards conformance with EU standards in order to access that huge market.

The UK will only diverge if it sees a very specific advantage in trading outside the EU which will happen in certain limited circumstances. The threat to the UK is those circumstances will be mostly in lowering health and safety standards and reducing taxation which of course means the burden on British taxpayers will go up in other areas to make up the difference.

 

In effect the Deal is the first step towards the UK rejoining the EU. It locks the UK into a perpetual EU harmonisation and very quickly we will want to be on the other side making the decisions instead of begging.

Edited by philipl
Link to post
Share on other sites

I must say that I'd been rather sceptical of Johnson and 1922 mates pulling any sort of deal off and whilst the ink isn't quite on the 2000 page document just yet, it does appear like a deal is going to get done, which is great news and major relief for business I'm sure.

Much of the detail is still unclear, but it seems it will be zero tariffs, which is a major concession by EU after all the rhetoric over the past 4yrs.

The European Court of Justice will have no say in UK matters moving forward, that will please the vote leave side, many of whom voted for British sovereignty.

Security - No doubt about it we're less safe with the current deal, access to some EU databases has been removed, that only makes us less safe.

Fishing - UK fishermen are rejoicing this morning after EU agreed to give back 25% of its fishing quota. This will quite rightly be phased in over the next few years, currently EU catches more fish in UK water than UK does, by 2026 UK will catch two thirds of fish in UK waters, a good deal for UK fishermen.

I'm sure more detail will emerge in the next few days, but thank god we got a deal, the option of no deal must have been terrifying for businesses especially. 

 

Edited by Gav
Link to post
Share on other sites

"The European Court of Justice will have no say in UK matters moving forward, that will please the vote leave side, many of whom voted for British sovereignty."

Whisper it but that ain't true.

"Much of the detail is still unclear, but it seems it will be zero tariffs, which is a major concession by EU after all the rhetoric over the past 4yrs."

That bit is true only on items in the schedules and subject to ultimate European Court of Justice jurisdiction. There is language hiding that hard fact but that is the reality.

I would argue it is not rhetoric, it is common practise- it is what exists for third parties without EU trade deals. That is why the EU now will have 91 trade deals. Also works the other way round ie

"Much of the detail is still unclear, but it seems it will be zero tariffs, which is a major concession by  UK on EU goods after all the rhetoric over the past 4yrs."

Yes that was rhetorical.. 

Edited by philipl
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.