Jump to content

BRFCS

BY THE FANS, FOR THE FANS
SINCE 1996
Proudly partnered with TheTerraceStore.com

Brexit


Recommended Posts

24 minutes ago, Silas said:

 

Yeah, fair play, looks like it's turning into a right mess over there.

Was it covered in depth before the vote though? Genuinely can't remember as it's all turned into a blur now.

I fell like all the hard border/soft border, border in the friggin sea stuff came up between 2016-2020.

Can't remember much of it before the vote though, but happy to be corrected. 

That's why I was always an advocate of a 2nd deciding and final vote. So much more information and nuance came in the following years that it made sense to me to let the population vote then. 

There was plenty of discussion about it Silas, probably mostly after the vote when everyone sat down and started to work out how an agreement could be practically implemented and realised Northern Ireland would be between a rock and a hard place. I'm pretty sure it was referred to on here a few times.

Then the Conservatives got an agreement through by basically lying about the effect it would have and suggesting the EU wouldn't do what it said in the agreement.

You're absolutely right about a second vote.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Backroom
1 hour ago, only2garners said:

There was plenty of discussion about it Silas, probably mostly after the vote when everyone sat down and started to work out how an agreement could be practically implemented....

Yeah, no doubt it became THE topic of the conversation from about 2017 onwards. Just couldn't recall how much it was front and centre before. 

2 hours ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Thanks, just what I was looking for, excellent article, very informative. 

Mixed bag really. Some of it is quite damning in the warnings that were made pre 2016.

But some of it does back up my theory. In that it "seemed to go under the radar when it came to the Brexit national debate". That it wasn't "talked about enough".

And even that Kevin Maguire struggled to get articles on the matter published.

It's 2 million people out of 70 odd. So can't override the overall picture. Regardless, sad to see and no one wants a return to the old days after 2 decades of calm.

I will concede though that it appears to be one of Project Fear's doomsday scenarios that is most definitely becoming evident. 

I've had a feeling some may be using it as an excuse to reignite things, still do a bit tbh. But just listened to 30 mins on it with Nihal on 5Live and a few of the NI level headed guests say whilst that might be so, it's certainly Brexit that has been the trigger, so am happy to take their word and lived experiences at face value.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Silas said:

 

Yeah, fair play, looks like it's turning into a right mess over there.

Was it covered in depth before the vote though? Genuinely can't remember as it's all turned into a blur now.

I fell like all the hard border/soft border, border in the friggin sea stuff came up between 2016-2020.

Can't remember much of it before the vote though, but happy to be corrected. 

That's why I was always an advocate of a 2nd deciding and final vote. So much more information and nuance came in the following years that it made sense to me to let the population vote then. 

As hoochie bloochie and others have said, the border in NI and potential repercussions came up in the pre-brexit debate. In Northern Ireland it was considered a very serious issue, hence we had a majority vote against Brexit along with the Scots. 
 

I seem to remember a poll conducted on leave voters or Conservative party members that showed that they would be happy with a hard brexit even if that meant NI seceding from the UK. it looks like that might actually be on the cards now. 
 

Anyone who looked at Brexit logically could see that the land border in Ireland would be a hugely complicated and potentially destructive factor, which makes it mind boggling as to why the Unionist parties in NI would come out in support of it.
 

It’s a complete clusterfuck. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, The Hypnotic said:

Anyone who looked at Brexit logically could see that the land border in Ireland would be a hugely complicated and potentially destructive factor, which makes it mind boggling as to why the Unionist parties in NI would come out in support of it.

I suppose because they are now dealing with the alternative which is much worse for them...and they wouldn't be against a land border because it prevents a united Ireland. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

I suppose because they are now dealing with the alternative which is much worse for them...and they wouldn't be against a land border because it prevents a united Ireland. 

 

No, the problem is that a land border in Ireland is completely unworkable so it is not an option on the table. Aside from the fact that we’re only recently out of a bloody war which was settled by all parties agreeing to no border checks on the island of Ireland, too many businesses and communities depend on cross border trade. It would be political suicide to come out in support of a hard border, which is why the current agreement was passed by the main Unionist party in NI. 

The only feasible alternative is what we’ve gone with - NI is economically aligned with the EU which means that we have a new economic border between us and the rest of the UK running down the Irish Sea. Instead of a hard border that divides Ireland we’ve now got a soft border that divides NI from the rest of the UK. Predictably it’s been a disaster and has thrown politics back twenty years. That’s why we’re going through riots and instability now. 
 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Backroom
3 hours ago, The Hypnotic said:

... the border in NI and potential repercussions came up in the pre-brexit debate. In Northern Ireland it was considered a very serious issue....

Think that was my angle tbh, it "came up" here. Was not much more than that. 

It really gathered speed and was then covered in depth the last few years, and that's the recent bit most remember. The vote was way in the distance by then. 

Early on in this thread doesn't seem to be much time or effort dedicated to it. Although a tip of the hat to Philip below fairly nailing it considering recent events.

On 27/09/2016 at 13:50, philipl said:

How is the border with the Republic of Ireland dealt with? What impact will there be (if any) on the Good Friday Agreement? How much a risk of a return to the "troubles" and IRA bombing campaigns is Brexit worth?

 

Stumbled across this article from a Leaver quite passionately turned Remainer which is an interesting read on it all:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-brexiteers-forgot-about-the-border-1.3831635%3fmode=amp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

I suppose because they are now dealing with the alternative which is much worse for them...and they wouldn't be against a land border because it prevents a united Ireland. 

 

I pointed out months ago that the population of NI is much more sympathetic to the idea of a United Ireland than it has ever been.

The population  ratio between Catholics and Protestant has changed dramatically in recent decades. Growing up in the 60's and studying Irish history, you just accepted that Protestants out-numbered Catholics 2-1.

Now the numbers are very near equal. Moreover, many N Irish have come to accept frictionless borders and cooperation between north and south after 40 years being in the EU.

The younger the cohort, the greater the proportion of Catholics in NI. At school level for example, Catholic kids significantly out-number Protestants. I gave the numbers at the time but can't remember where I got them.

The point of this is that the Good Friday Agreement provides for a referendum when there is enough evidence that a majority of the NI people want one.

If everyone votes on sectarian lines, we are very near that position already and may even have reached it.

The hope is that once there is a United Ireland people will in time come to regard themselves as Irish first and foremost  and not define themselves by their religion. Ireland has assisted in this already by being less dominated by the Catholic Church. Abortion legislation is an obvious indication of a more secular society and unthinkable just a few years ago.

The hot heads will never reconcile to it but, with time, their numbers and influence will decline.

And that's how I see it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, 47er said:

I pointed out months ago that the population of NI is much more sympathetic to the idea of a United Ireland than it has ever been.

The population  ratio between Catholics and Protestant has changed dramatically in recent decades. Growing up in the 60's and studying Irish history, you just accepted that Protestants out-numbered Catholics 2-1.

Now the numbers are very near equal. Moreover, many N Irish have come to accept frictionless borders and cooperation between north and south after 40 years being in the EU.

The younger the cohort, the greater the proportion of Catholics in NI. At school level for example, Catholic kids significantly out-number Protestants. I gave the numbers at the time but can't remember where I got them.

The point of this is that the Good Friday Agreement provides for a referendum when there is enough evidence that a majority of the NI people want one.

If everyone votes on sectarian lines, we are very near that position already and may even have reached it.

The hope is that once there is a United Ireland people will in time come to regard themselves as Irish first and foremost  and not define themselves by their religion. Ireland has assisted in this already by being less dominated by the Catholic Church. Abortion legislation is an obvious indication of a more secular society and unthinkable just a few years ago.

The hot heads will never reconcile to it but, with time, their numbers and influence will decline.

And that's how I see it!

Here's hoping this all calms down very quickly, however positions tend to harden when one group of people feel they are being badly treated in comparison to others.

Anyway, the point I was making, perhaps badly, was that the Unionists on the whole still don't want a United Ireland - whether they are hotheads or not. They've also now been shafted by the UK govt. 

On the religious divide I found this which backs up your point on the political divide in N Ireland and how people see themselves. It will be interesting to see how Brexit reality changes those numbers.

NI survey suggests 50% neither unionist nor nationalist - BBC News

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Silas said:

Think that was my angle tbh, it "came up" here. Was not much more than that. 

It really gathered speed and was then covered in depth the last few years, and that's the recent bit most remember. The vote was way in the distance by then. 

Early on in this thread doesn't seem to be much time or effort dedicated to it. Although a tip of the hat to Philip below fairly nailing it considering recent events.

Sorry, when I posted my link in response to your question I didn't realise your 'angle' was that it wasn't discussed in length on here at the time. I thought you meant in politics generally. 

It seems an odd 'angle'. 

Edited by Hoochie Bloochie Mama
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was very little anywhere about NI in the run up to the referendum. I clearly remember watching the news one evening and saying to my husband 'Why is nobody paying any attention to the fact they need to sort out a border in Ireland?' The impossibility of a land border had struck me and nobody had said a word about what alternative arrangements would be put in place. I remember bringing the question up on here. If I could be bothered I could doubtless find my posts. It was yet another Brexit fudge. They hoped to get Brexit through before anyone really woke up to the issues it raised

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Sorry, when I posted my link in response to your question I didn't realise your 'angle' was that it wasn't discussed in length on here at the time. I thought you meant in politics generally. 

It seems an odd 'angle'. 

I think that was Silas responding to my post saying that it had been discussed on this thread although mostly only after the referendum.

I presume as The Hypnotic says that it was more of a story within Northern Ireland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

“In great detail”?  That’s a strange take. 
 

N.I. Was discussed everywhere, all the way through. it was a big issue. At the centre of it all was whether a hard border was inevitable. Remainers argued that where there was a border, there would have to be checks. Any border would be divisive and dangerous to the GFA. 
 

As usual, brexiteers argued that the technology to avoid checks was already available and already being used on the continent. As always they shouted “project fear”.

Im not going to check back through 600+ pages on here, but it was discussed. Whether it was before or after the referendum? Probably both, but it wouldn’t have mattered because brexiteers never accepted anything that suggested brexit might cause problems or losses.

Edited by den
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Backroom
57 minutes ago, gumboots said:

There was very little anywhere about NI in the run up to the referendum. I clearly remember watching the news one evening and saying to my husband 'Why is nobody paying any attention to the fact they need to sort out a border in Ireland?' 

Yeah, that's how I'm remembering it too. I mean, I've already quoted from the BBC article given to me as evidence how it went "under the radar" and "wasn't talked about enough". 

Feel a bit like I'm being gas lit.

I've also posted another article from a journalist stating how it was "excluded" from the Brexit debate. (Although admittedly he was on the Leave team so 🤷‍♂️)

40 minutes ago, only2garners said:

I think that was Silas responding to my post saying that it had been discussed on this thread although mostly only after the referendum.

I presume as The Hypnotic says that it was more of a story within Northern Ireland.

Sorry, for clarification "here" means England versus NI. I've just confused it by then going on to also mention it being posted in this thread.

24 minutes ago, den said:

Im not going to check back through 600+ pages on here, but it was discussed. Whether it was before or after the referendum? Probably both, but it wouldn’t have mattered because brexiteers never accepted anything that suggested brexit might cause problems or losses.

You don't have to trawl through pages Den, there's a search function. Takes 10 seconds to type in keywords like "border" and "Northern Ireland " which I assume is also what Jimbo has done and found Philip's post 3 months after the vote.

And come on, of course it matters if it was before or after. You're on thin ground shouting at people that the topic that was covered, yes "in great detail" in like 2018, should have factored in a vote they made 2 years earlier. You must see that. 

20 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

PhillipL first brought it up on page 4 of this thread - There may have been earlier references I missed though

Yeah, this thread only starts after the vote, so maybe there was some earlier stuff somewhere,  I'll admit that.

 

Summary: Look, I'm not saying this topic wasn't covered in the run up to the Brexit vote. It most certainly was. I just feel like it was very marginalised at the time.

And because we were pretty much bombarded with it for the last 3 years or so, that's the bit that is freshest in people's memories. Remember, it became THE final and most crucial point in finalising the deal with EU.

Just struggling a bit with people stating "I told you so!", when I feel really they did so in like 2019, which is not much use to me for a vote made in 2016. 

For the record, not saying any of it would change my vote. Maybe it would/will, maybe not. Will have to see still how it all pans out. 

It's certainly incredibly sad to see the scenes going on over in NI. And the worry I suppose is this is just the start. 

May sounds a bit callous, but NI only makes up about 3% of the UK population so in terms of bare numbers it can't be the be all and end all. 

It's all a bit odd that I've told people they were right, and the reaction is to circle the wagons. Yeah, I'm maybe querying the timescales, but take the win when it's given to you. (Although perhaps a poor term).

 

"Brexiteers will never admit it when things go wrong with it."

Brexiteer: "Yeah, looks like things are going wrong here."

"What are you on about idiot!"

🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️ I'm paraphrasing obviously. 😉

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Silas said:

May sounds a bit callous, but NI only makes up about 3% of the UK population so in terms of bare numbers it can't be the be all and end all. 

 

It'll matter if there's to be any trade agreement with the USA!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Backroom
1 minute ago, 47er said:

It'll matter if there's to be any trade agreement with the USA!

Can't argue with that.

Particularly with Joe in charge.

Yep, suppose that does make it an increasingly important factor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@silas

the first mention on this thread , was three weeks after it was opened.

I really don’t know what you’re trying to argue here. Are you saying it wasn’t discussed on here, or discussed anywhere before the referendum?

and also, what does it matter? Brexiteers argued throughout that there wouldn’t  be an EU/U.K. border after brexit. Remainers throughout argued that there would be.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Silas said:

May sounds a bit callous, but NI only makes up about 3% of the UK population so in terms of bare numbers it can't be the be all and end all. 

Can't believe you posted that, which is exactly the Johnson / Tory ERG attitude to N Ireland .......ie, that it doesn't matter and can be thrown under a bus, which is of course what they did in the Brexit agreement. It's also that sort of attitude by English people that gets up Irish people's noses.

Where is philipl by the way?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, 47er said:

I pointed out months ago that the population of NI is much more sympathetic to the idea of a United Ireland than it has ever been.

The population  ratio between Catholics and Protestant has changed dramatically in recent decades. Growing up in the 60's and studying Irish history, you just accepted that Protestants out-numbered Catholics 2-1.

Now the numbers are very near equal. Moreover, many N Irish have come to accept frictionless borders and cooperation between north and south after 40 years being in the EU.

The younger the cohort, the greater the proportion of Catholics in NI. At school level for example, Catholic kids significantly out-number Protestants. I gave the numbers at the time but can't remember where I got them.

The point of this is that the Good Friday Agreement provides for a referendum when there is enough evidence that a majority of the NI people want one.

If everyone votes on sectarian lines, we are very near that position already and may even have reached it.

The hope is that once there is a United Ireland people will in time come to regard themselves as Irish first and foremost  and not define themselves by their religion. Ireland has assisted in this already by being less dominated by the Catholic Church. Abortion legislation is an obvious indication of a more secular society and unthinkable just a few years ago.

The hot heads will never reconcile to it but, with time, their numbers and influence will decline.

And that's how I see it!

I don’t think there will be a referendum here for a while yet.

NI is very poor economically, there is very little industry here and we are heavily reliant on funding from Westminster and public sector jobs. Infrastructure is very poor and there are massive inefficiencies regarding the local health and education services. The Republic of Ireland hasn’t got the resources to support us and I don’t think there is much interest there in a United Ireland apart from on romantic or nationalistic lines.
 

The coronavirus crisis has shown a lot here how useful it is to be supported by the UK with the excellent NHS in comparison with “down south” where vaccinations are at a low level and GP appointments are not free. I think that Brexit will be a catalyst towards a United Ireland which will occur in my lifetime but on an economic basis we are not there yet. If the chaos continues and the economic situation here worsens then the process will speed up but at the minute I think even those traditionally considered strong supporters of Irish unification would vote against it in a referendum.

Lots here refer to themselves as “Northern Irish” now rather than British or Irish so I take your point but there are pockets in NI that are still incredibly bitter on both sides so I think it’ll be many many years before attitudes soften. Episodes like the recent rioting are very depressing as they show that the younger generation are not aware of what some of us had to live through, and as a society we haven’t really learned any lessons from the past. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Backroom
1 hour ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

 What else can you do but try to score points some other way?😉

I'm point scoring by chalking one up in the win column for your team. 

Tony Mowbray will be thrilled to hear someone has finally bought into his philosophy. 

 

1 hour ago, jim mk2 said:

 .......ie, that it doesn't matter and can be thrown under a bus, which is of course what they did in the Brexit agreement. 

Did I say they didn't matter or should be thrown under the bus?

You're just reading what you want to Jim. 

I'm just saying when making decisions for a large group of people you can't always be ruled by the 3%. 

1 hour ago, jim mk2 said:

Where is philipl by the way?  

Don't know, have you tried PM'ing him to ask?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.