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8 minutes ago, Gav said:

The government have said repeatedly that they never took the herd immunity approach.

The scientist who’s advice you repeatedly tell us they’re following did Gav. He’s been quoted on here a few times.

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31 minutes ago, Gav said:

As for strategy, Hancock made it clear last week that the government never adopted a herd immunity strategy despite rumbles in the media to contrary, was he lying? its possible, but if he is found to have been telling lies his political career will be over.

 

Hancock also promised 100000 tests a day by the end of April! I'm watching (and counting!).

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8 minutes ago, Gav said:

The government have said repeatedly that they never took the herd immunity approach.

There has been enough evidence posted here to show that's BS. But if you refuse to acknowledge that, that's fair enough. What more can people say? 

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As for strategy, Hancock made it clear last week that the government never adopted a herd immunity strategy despite rumbles in the media to contrary, was he lying? its possible, but if he is found to have been telling lies his political career will be over.

 

Since when has telling lies ended anyone's political career. When you have a serial liar as PM it's hard to imagine Hancock being sacked or ousted.

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7 minutes ago, Yoogo said:

Even if that's true, I haven't even mentioned it as part of my argument. We won't really know what was behind their thinking (it could have been purely economic, or it could have been to prevent panic, or it could have been something medical); my whole point is based on a lack of any action during that critical week.

 

1 minute ago, den said:

The scientist who’s advice you repeatedly tell us they’re following did Gav. He’s been quoted on here a few times.

 

Don't believe everything you read in the papers, Public Health have been working on this since the beginning on January and just for the record, herd immunity was never even mentioned as a policy, but by definition exists due to the numbers of people infected.

We are currently in a lock down situation, quite the opposite of herd immunity, Swedes are still allowed to gather in groups of 50 as they are taking the herd immunity route, which seems silly because we don't know if you become immune to Covid19 at the moment, watch this space.

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Not that I'm qualified in any way but have had a few thoughts throughout this whole crisis. 

1. Is it practical to be able to compare numbers between countries? Given different demographics, population densities, culture etc does comparing death rates between countries actually give you a decent comparison of how each country is performing? 

2. If we are comparing performance should we not wait till the crisis is over. As I understand it, until their is a vaccine there is going to be multiple outbreaks. At the moment it looks like our 1st wave is bad compared to other countries but if this means a higher % of the population has had it our second wave will surely not be as bad?

3. Im assuming that most economies can't handle a second lockdown so are we not best having as many cases in phase 1, provided we dont breach critical care capacity. I.e. is the critical care capacity more of a precise target than a limit? This unfortunately means more deaths initially with the hope of a reduced death rate later on. 

 

4. Lockdown can only go on so long. People keep saying 'who cares about the economy, this is about saving lives' without realising that the economy and life expectancy are so strongly linked. Yes we save lives now but long term this will have an adverse impact on life expectancy. 

 

5. Complete isolation for people like my grandparents is surely as bad for them as catching corona. I'm fairly sure at the age of 90 my grandad would rather take his chances than being shut off from his family for what is a significant portion of his remaining life. Chances are he wont be here in 18 months time and we're asking him and nana to stay inside staring at the TV for 3 months.

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20 minutes ago, Gav said:

 

 

Don't believe everything you read in the papers, Public Health have been working on this since the beginning on January and just for the record, herd immunity was never even mentioned as a policy, but by definition exists due to the numbers of people infected.

We are currently in a lock down situation, quite the opposite of herd immunity, Swedes are still allowed to gather in groups of 50 as they are taking the herd immunity route, which seems silly because we don't know if you become immune to Covid19 at the moment, watch this space.

I didn’t read it. I heard it from his own mouth. They locked down only when a much publicised report landed on their desks telling them they were heading towards a quarter of a million deaths.

Why are you so averse to accepting that the government were too slow in locking down Gav? 

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3 minutes ago, den said:

I didn’t read it. I heard it from his own mouth. They locked down only when a much publicised report landed on their desks telling them they were heading towards a quarter of a million deaths.

Why are you so averse to accepting that the government were too slow in locking down Gav? 

Because I know they weren't den, it was part of a strategy, timing/lock down was part of the model, Sage will provide further details next week on that model.

Nobody knows at this stage whats right and whats wrong, as RoverDom says above, performance should be examined once this crisis is over, but I still maintain that the UK is in good hands.

 

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29 minutes ago, Gav said:

 

 

 

We are currently in a lock down situation, quite the opposite of herd immunity, Swedes are still allowed to gather in groups of 50 as they are taking the herd immunity route, which seems silly because we don't know if you become immune to Covid19 at the moment, watch this space.

Sweden is difficult to fathom apparently the population has taken it upon themselves to work from home where possible with public transportation use down 50% and social distancing being practiced. Restaurants pubs etc are still open. Around 50% of households are single occupiers. The death rate has started to spike in the last few days which may cause a change of approach with around 8% death rate to confirmed cases unlike Norway and Denmark with 2%-4%.

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1 hour ago, Gav said:

The government have said repeatedly that they never took the herd immunity approach.

That'll be because they're all liars. I heard Fraser Nelson ( un-official Tory propagandist ) talking on the radio earlier. It's a shambles at the top, nobody has any real sense of where to go next with this. Apparently the government are really surprised the lock down has been so successful in terms of people observing it ! They were hoping more people would kick against it and carry on working. It's going to cost much more than what was anticipated.  Looks like the boy chancellor didn't get his sums right after all.

Edited by Tyrone Shoelaces
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9 minutes ago, Gav said:

Because I know they weren't den, it was part of a strategy, timing/lock down was part of the model, Sage will provide further details next week on that model.

Nobody knows at this stage whats right and whats wrong, as RoverDom says above, performance should be examined once this crisis is over, but I still maintain that the UK is in good hands.

 

Chief scientist didn’t say herd immunity was part of the plan? The letter telling them they were heading towards 250,000 deaths didn’t happen? The government didn’t change their strategy straight after that? Jeremy hunt hasn’t continually said in public that’s what the government were doing? He would know wouldn’t he? 
Just denying everything makes it difficult to discuss anything GV.

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2 minutes ago, den said:

Chief scientist didn’t say herd immunity was part of the plan? The letter telling them they were heading towards 250,000 deaths didn’t happen? The government didn’t change their strategy straight after that? Just denying everything makes it difficult to discuss anything GV.

In my opinion the on going lack of a serious testing strategy is just the " Herd Immunity " policy by the back door.

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2 minutes ago, den said:

Chief scientist didn’t say herd immunity was part of the plan? The letter telling them they were heading towards 250,000 deaths didn’t happen? The government didn’t change their strategy straight after that? Just denying everything makes it difficult to discuss anything GV.

Himself and Chaddy would be funny, if not for the situation. Quoting articles that suit them and then telling others not to believe everything they read in the papers. 

I suppose people are dealing with the situation differently. Some prefer to pull the national jersey on and refuse to hear criticism of their government. We have the same over here. 

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Just now, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

In my opinion the on going lack of a serious testing strategy is just the " Herd Immunity " policy by the back door.

I would say it's a lack of planning and preparation. What you suggest would be a conspiracy and I wouldn't say governments are on the ball enough for that across the board. Everyone seems to be struggling to get enough tests done, or more so, to test the right people. 

We had some amount of hypochondriacs clog the system early doors. 

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1 minute ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Himself and Chaddy would be funny, if not for the situation. Quoting articles that suit them and then telling others not to believe everything they read in the papers. 

I suppose people are dealing with the situation differently. Some prefer to pull the national jersey on and refuse to hear criticism of their government. We have the same over here. 

It's called " Wrapping yourself in the flag ". It usually ends in tears.

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Just now, Bigdoggsteel said:

I would say it's a lack of planning and preparation. What you suggest would be a conspiracy and I wouldn't say governments are on the ball enough for that across the board. Everyone seems to be struggling to get enough tests done, or more so, to test the right people. 

We had some amount of hypochondriacs clog the system early doors. 

They've had long enough to decide which way to jump yet they seem quite happy just to let things ride.

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18 minutes ago, den said:

Chief scientist didn’t say herd immunity was part of the plan? The letter telling them they were heading towards 250,000 deaths didn’t happen? The government didn’t change their strategy straight after that? Jeremy hunt hasn’t continually said in public that’s what the government were doing? He would know wouldn’t he? 
Just denying everything makes it difficult to discuss anything GV.

Jeremy Hunt eh? the man who decimated the NHS and has a rather sharp axe to grind.

Its interesting to note here that we've had some very strange bedfellows over the past couple of months, you putting Hunt forward as a credible source of information, Jim quoting the daily mail and Trump, fascinating :lol:

The government never changed strategy den, the health minister dealt with that last week on QT and the daily briefings, if he's lying he'll be sacked, I believe him, time will tell.

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South Korea, Germany and others provided the model on how to deal with the virus. Countries such as New Zealand followed but English exceptionalists thought they knew better and went for the herd immunity approach. When the crisis is over a public inquiry needs to be held as to why the government failed the nation and caused so many unnecessary deaths 

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39 minutes ago, den said:

They locked down only when a much publicised report landed on their desks telling them they were heading towards a quarter of a million deaths.

 

18 minutes ago, den said:

The letter telling them they were heading towards 250,000 deaths didn’t happen? The government didn’t change their strategy straight after that?

This is not how it happened. 

The report dropped on the Monday. 

Soft lockdown was then announced on the Friday, full lockdown finally came 1 week later the following Monday.

Now I appreciate that sounds a lot worse, but it is the true account of what occurred. 

That week delay seems far more important a factor to the timeline of events, but people do seem to enjoy repeating the term "herd immunity". It's a catchy soundbite.

The real issue is when should the Country have gone into full lockdown, and was it done too late. And it's a massively complex answer. And the rights and wrongs won't be evident for a while. 

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25 minutes ago, Silas said:

 

This is not how it happened. 

The report dropped on the Monday. 

Soft lockdown was then announced on the Friday, full lockdown finally came 1 week later the following Monday.

Now I appreciate that sounds a lot worse, but it is the true account of what occurred. 

That week delay seems far more important a factor to the timeline of events, but people do seem to enjoy repeating the term "herd immunity". It's a catchy soundbite.

The real issue is when should the Country have gone into full lockdown, and was it done too late. And it's a massively complex answer. And the rights and wrongs won't be evident for a while. 

I'll be honest I've been waiting for you to post this. I've drafted a similar post dozens of times now but just before posting always thought "what's the point"? You've been through this a few times now.

From what I can make out we were about a week behind some European countries. Did any lock down in January like is being claimed on this topic? Was it even in consideration for Western govts to lock down in that month? The WHO tweeted on the 14th January that "reports from China indicate there is no risk of human-to-human transmission". If this was the case why would we need to be locked down at that time? A serious, serious review needs to be undertaken of the WHO and Chinese input. Taiwan is often held up as a perfect system for handling the pandemic but the WHO refuses to acknowledge them. Chinese lobbying may have led to incorrect information being released. Certainly the world was put on a backfoot by the delaying of information and, ultimately, the covering up of truth by the Chinese Communist Party.

A hell of a lot of revisionism on this topic lately. It seems like the constant stream of information is confusing. It's not surprising. I don't know what to believe these days because it changes every day, so the only really sensible thing to do is listen to the daily briefings. In them briefings herd immunity has always been strenuously denied, although they have said that eventually it is the way to beat the virus. It seems like this has been construed into them planning for it all along.

Personally I am going to wait for this to end and a full review by people far more knowledgeable on the subject to be completed before I start to accuse the govt of under reacting / over reacting.

Incidentally New Zealand are a completely different animal to us so holding them up as a way to handle the crisis is disingenuous. We are a really densely populated country, which has proven links with increased severity of infection; we have an international hub airport bang in the middle of one of the busiest cities in Europe; we have a hell of a lot of tourists, chinese students, migrant workers which all increases the spread of infection.

New Zealand also have the capabilities to pursue the 'elimination' strategy. Themselves and Australia already have very very strict border controls in motion to carefully manage their own delicate ecosystems. All other European nations are pursuing the same strategy as us, despite some claiming they aren't. The only real difference between us and Germany is that Germany's healthcare system is better and they have tested more. Experts suggest that this is because of their devolved federal political system, which allowed state governments to act and implement changes rapidly as opposed to waiting for our big, centralised government to put together the advice and systems local councils needed to then understand, plan and implement. In my opinion the only thing Germany's reaction to covid-19 has taught us is that we need to decentralise the government and allow regional councils more power in health, education and transport.

Edited by Dreams of 1995
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18 minutes ago, Gav said:

 

The government never changed strategy den, the health minister dealt with that last week on QT and the daily briefings, if he's lying he'll be sacked, I believe him, time will tell.

They changed from saying it was too early to ask people to stay indoors because their behaviour scientist said people wouldn’t do that for any length of time, to ordering people to do just that with a couple of days of receiving the report that they were heading towards 250,000 deaths. That was a 180 degree turn Gav.

and yes Jeremy Hunt has said it all along. He should know shouldn’t he? 
 

 

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4 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

The only real difference between us and Germany is that Germany's healthcare system is better and they have tested more. Experts suggest that this is because of their devolved federal political system, which allowed state governments to act and implement changes rapidly as opposed to waiting for our big, centralised government to put together the advice and systems local councils needed to then understand, plan and implement. In my opinion the only thing Germany's reaction to covid-19 has taught us is that we need to decentralise the government and allow regional councils more power in health, education and transport.

Certainly Bavaria, with its rapid travel time to Austria and Italy, closed things down very quickly. Even small local areas seemed to be able to make quick choices about how stringently they imposed restrictions quickly

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18 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

The only real difference between us and Germany is that Germany's healthcare system is better and they have tested more. Experts suggest that this is because of their devolved federal political system, which allowed state governments to act and implement changes rapidly as opposed to waiting for our big, centralised government to put together the advice and systems local councils needed to then understand, plan and implement. In my opinion the only thing Germany's reaction to covid-19 has taught us is that we need to decentralise the government and allow regional councils more power in health, education and transport.

The USA has a strong state system and response here has been universally panned because of the mistakes made by the federal government.

States had to go it alone because they weren't getting the help they needed.

I can't see lockdown lasting long here either.

 

 

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