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46 minutes ago, Silas said:

 

This is not how it happened. 

The report dropped on the Monday. 

Soft lockdown was then announced on the Friday, full lockdown finally came 1 week later the following Monday.

Now I appreciate that sounds a lot worse, but it is the true account of what occurred. 

That week delay seems far more important a factor to the timeline of events, but people do seem to enjoy repeating the term "herd immunity". It's a catchy soundbite.

The real issue is when should the Country have gone into full lockdown, and was it done too late. And it's a massively complex answer. And the rights and wrongs won't be evident for a while. 

How would going into lockdown earlier have been in any way bad in relation to saving more lives? 

I take the economic arguments and even ones about the mental health effects (to a point ,because we still were going to end up in lockdown anyway) but I don't see how the earlier ,was not the best approach. It's is what has worked in other countries. 

The less contact people have, the better. I don't see a debate on this. Apart from the herd immunity stuff, which was real. There is enough evidence to prove that all day. Some just don't want to see it. 

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26 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

A hell of a lot of revisionism on this topic lately. It seems like the constant stream of information is confusing. It's not surprising. I don't know what to believe these days because it changes every day, so the only really sensible thing to do is listen to the daily briefings. In them briefings herd immunity has always been strenuously denied, although they have said that eventually it is the way to beat the virus. It seems like this has been construed into them planning for it all along.

Couldn't agree more with this. I remember watching one of the first briefings with johnson Vallance and whitty, before they started the daily briefings. In it they basically said (paraphrased) was:

- We will lockdown when the time is right, locking down for too long will cause compliance fatigue

- when then time is right we will ask the elderly /vulnerable to stay inside 

- most young healthy people will experience mild symptoms so we ideally want a bit of spread among this demographic to build up a degree of herd immunity otherwise when we lift lockdown it there will just be another outbreak. 

 

I thought it all sounded quite reasonable and calculated and at the time it filled me with confidence. In the recent weeks this plan, as you said, seems to have morphed into the 'do nothing' approach in which 250,000 will die.  

Ultimately which even decision is taken will cost lives in some way shape or form so I dont envy those in charge of making the choices and I'm not going to pretend they've got every decision spot on but I beleive a degree of slack should be given. Afterwards, yes, have an inquiry led by medical experts so long as its a constructive lessons learnt exercise rather than setting out to hang someone out to dry from the off. 

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29 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

 The only real difference between us and Germany is that Germany's healthcare system is better and they have tested more. 

The testing thing does seem to be a ball drop.

Regardless of whatever strategy you are going down, without the testing you are effectively working blind. 

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4 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

How would going into lockdown earlier have been in any way bad in relation to saving more lives? 

I take the economic arguments and even ones about the mental health effects (to a point ,because we still were going to end up in lockdown anyway) but I don't see how the earlier ,was not the best approach. 

You've answered your own question.

I think the 1st virus case in UK was 31st Jan and there's people out there shouting about how we should have locked down immediately. That's extremely naive. No way our economy could deal with that. We'd end up killing more than we saved.

There is a magic number somewhere between 31st Jan and 23rd March. No one will ever know what it was as it isn't an exact science. 

For the record I think we probably should and could have gone a week or two earlier. 

But the flip side is we can't stay in lockdown forever. My personal opinion is anything over 3 months and we've got serious problems. The negatives will start outweighing the positives. Here's hoping that the figures start tracking better in the next month. 

4 minutes ago, Yoogo said:

Just to remind everyone who claims that government-bashers are rolling out the catchy "herd immunity" phrase, these are the words of Sir Patrick Vallance:

"We think this virus is likely to be one that comes year on year, becomes like a seasonal virus," he told Sky News.

"Communities will become immune to it and that's going to be an important part of controlling this longer term.

"About 60% is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity."

The point is that every single Country in the World is trying to achieve "herd immunity".

Whether that be through a vaccine eventually,  or by weathering the storm and making it past "the curve" etc. as China may have done. 

Every single strategy is ultimately working towards herd immunity. It's just the methods that differ.

Yes, originally the UK were looking at tackling the thing too aggressively and that was a mistake.

But the comments of "that ridiculous herd immunity" or the "stupid herd immunity strategy" are missing the point. 

It's basically saying - yeah, you know that thing that everyone in the World desperately wants in order to beat this thing, how moronic is that?!

The UK's method of trying to pass through this phase as quick as possible and reach the end goal sooner was shown by scientists to be catastrophic for death rate numbers. And we've since tried to slow everything down. (If we slow it down too much, the damage to the economy could become a bigger problem).

But "herd immunity" is still without doubt the final destination. 

Suppose that's why I struggle with it getting bandied about as a buzzword. And a negative one at that. It's nonsensical. 

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Incidentally is anyone listening to the Coronavirus podcast by BBC? Imo its great. Been going since Brexit days as Brexitcast but switched over.

Anyhoo it's a daily update on Corona with a really varied take - look at stats, situation in hospitals, how people are coping in lockdown. It's pretty funny as well. Which is weird but relieving.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05299nl

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3 hours ago, Gav said:

What absolute cock-ups are you referring to?

As for strategy, Hancock made it clear last week that the government never adopted a herd immunity strategy despite rumbles in the media to contrary, was he lying? its possible, but if he is found to have been telling lies his political career will be over.

Also who is to say that herd immunity is right or wrong? Sweden still haven't locked down, they're adopting that approach and time will tell if that was the correct approach or not.

As I've said many times, we don't have a rule book for dealing with pandemics, we've not had one in most peoples lifetimes, I think the government and more importantly the scientists are doing a tremendous job under extremely difficult circumstances. 

 

I don't think the herd immunity was the overall strategy but the government and advisors point was that some people would develop a immunity to it depending on people age, etc

I do agree with your last point about government but I do enjoy certain people on being do like being an experts 

2 hours ago, den said:

The scientist who’s advice you repeatedly tell us they’re following did Gav. He’s been quoted on here a few times.

you mean Sir Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty?

1 hour ago, Gav said:

Because I know they weren't den, it was part of a strategy, timing/lock down was part of the model, Sage will provide further details next week on that model.

Nobody knows at this stage whats right and whats wrong, as RoverDom says above, performance should be examined once this crisis is over, but I still maintain that the UK is in good hands.

 

yes full update will happen when the data is there. 

RoverDom's comments were good points

47 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

I'll be honest I've been waiting for you to post this. I've drafted a similar post dozens of times now but just before posting always thought "what's the point"? You've been through this a few times now.

From what I can make out we were about a week behind some European countries. Did any lock down in January like is being claimed on this topic? Was it even in consideration for Western govts to lock down in that month? The WHO tweeted on the 14th January that "reports from China indicate there is no risk of human-to-human transmission". If this was the case why would we need to be locked down at that time? A serious, serious review needs to be undertaken of the WHO and Chinese input. Taiwan is often held up as a perfect system for handling the pandemic but the WHO refuses to acknowledge them. Chinese lobbying may have led to incorrect information being released. Certainly the world was put on a backfoot by the delaying of information and, ultimately, the covering up of truth by the Chinese Communist Party.

 

Personally I am going to wait for this to end and a full review by people far more knowledgeable on the subject to be completed before I start to accuse the govt of under reacting / over reacting.

 

The Chinese government have alot to answer about this coronavirus and how it was started and why the cover up. 

I think your approach of waiting before judging is the correct one but sadly some people will always going to judge far too early and act like experts in the science and medical world.  

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4 minutes ago, Yoogo said:

I'm beginning to believe that they at least owe it to the world an explanation, but given that nobody fully trusts whatever they say, it would just be a token gesture, methinks.

What about the UK government? Do you think that they have a responsibility to answer (to an inquiry, to Parliament, and/or to the people) for its response to the crisis, particularly when there are questions hanging over the speed of it (which, in turn, relates to the strategy or strategies)?

Not to answer for Chaddy but you’ve hit the nail on the head with that one already: all governments should have to answer to an inquiry into its response. No one is immune to criticism, or else we are living in a state like China. 

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13 minutes ago, Yoogo said:

Right, but herd immunity is a by-product of a virus running its course, and of course that's what we all aim for, but herd immunity is not a strategy in itself. Herd immunity is the end result of a virus running its course. What Vallance openly stated seemed to suggest (and I use that word emphatically) that the initial strategy appeared to be doing not much at all in order to reach herd immunity quicker. I said some time ago that I can understand that thinking, but I didn't realise that it would mean a quarter of a million deaths. What concerns is me is that either the medical advisers didn't realise this, or (and I suspect more likely), that they thought that this was acceptable. Until word got out and it sent the public into a frenzied panic.

The irony is that MAYBE getting to her immunity as quickly as possible involves doing nothing, and would thus save lives in the long-run. Maybe the doubt is if the public would accept that price in the shorter term.

None of us truly knows what goes on behind the scenes, and nobody can say with any certainty how it works - at least not until there is evidence of a process. The government claims that herd immunity was never a strategy. Well, it ISN'T a strategy! It's a goal. The strategy is how you achieve that goal. All we can do is opine based on what is in front of us, and it seems to me that the government wanted to take one approach, and went with it for a week until a seismic shift occurred in which we saw a huge change in direction.

Some people think that the government is a mess and has unequivocally handled this badly. Some people think some parts are good, and some parts are bad. Some people think the Sun shines out of the government's arse and will call it a "good job" regardless of what they do. Within all of that, you're absolutely going to get real phrases/words that get turned into buzzwords. "Immigration". "Brussels". Etc. It's normal, if annoying!

The same day the results of that particular modelling came out the government applied tougher sanctions if I remember correctly. That 250,000 figure wasn’t known by the date of Vallances press that you are quoting. 
 

I may stand to be corrected though because dates are one big blur at the moment!

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13 minutes ago, Yoogo said:

 Some people think the Sun shines out of the government's arse and will call it a "good job" regardless of what they do. 

I presume you didnt mean to capitalise the word sun? Or perhaps you did

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17 minutes ago, Yoogo said:

I'm beginning to believe that they at least owe it to the world an explanation, but given that nobody fully trusts whatever they say, it would just be a token gesture, methinks.

What about the UK government? Do you think that they have a responsibility to answer (to an inquiry, to Parliament, and/or to the people) for its response to the crisis, particularly when there are questions hanging over the speed of it (which, in turn, relates to the strategy or strategies)?

 Exactly so. If the Chinese have a case to answer for causing the virus , then the UK government does too for unleashing such a devastating tsunami of suffering and death.

Nadine Dorries is even cracking sick jokes about the country being able to "breathe again" as thousands of people struggle and die due to the respiratory illness that her government allowed to spread like wildfire through the UK population.

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3 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

 Exactly so. If the Chinese have a case to answer for the causes and initial , then the UK government does too for unleashing such a devastating tsunami of suffering and death.

Nadine Dorries is even cracking sick jokes about the country being able to "breathe again" as thousands of people struggle and die due to the respiratory illness that her government allowed to spread like wildfire through the UK population.

They didn’t unleash it. It is a virus who’s origins is up for debate still. Ridiculous wording there but no surprise. 
 

You spread faux-disgust at the words of some Tory MPs but you do the same with your sensationalising. There’s been two posters on here scoring points for each political party: you are the one on the red side. Save it for Twitter will you, this is a largely balanced discussion. 

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Just now, Dreams of 1995 said:

They didn’t unleash it. It was a virus who’s origins is up for debate still. Ridiculous wording there but no surprise. 
 

You spread faux-disgust at the words of some Tory MPs but you do the same with your sensationalising. There’s been two posters on here scoring points for each political party: you are the one on the red side. Save it for Twitter will you, this is a largely balanced discussion topic. 

You always do seem over emotional. 

 

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16 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

Not to answer for Chaddy but you’ve hit the nail on the head with that one already: all governments should have to answer to an inquiry into its response. No one is immune to criticism, or else we are living in a state like China. 

Bang on. I think it should be the norm that there is some sort of review after a major crisis whether we had done everything perfectly or not. There will be learning points to take from this through the good stuff done and the bad stuff. I just hope it's done constructively, a genuine "how do we do it better next time" exercise. I'm not interested in a witch hunt or to have people branded as criminals as I think all decisions have been made with good intent on the data available. Unless of course it transpires that there was genuine negligence like "aww screw em who needs PPE we'll pretend it's a priority and just do it when we can."

 

Like testing is a weakspot but I dont think its through lack of trying. Let a review find how we can improve the process in the future rather than sending Hancock to the stocks if he doesnt hit 100k per day. 

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Just now, jim mk2 said:

You always do seem over emotional. 

 

It’s just not really the subject to be posting some of the over the top things you are. And you know it. No qualms with the way you describe the Tories in the political thread but to be accusing them of “unleashing the virus on the U.K.” is plainly wrong.

Id say your reaction to this has been very emotional. Unable to separate fact and instead looking for a stick to beat at any opportunity isn’t rational. 

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12 minutes ago, Yoogo said:

 

The government claims that herd immunity was never a strategy. Well, it ISN'T a strategy! It's a goal. The strategy is how you achieve that goal.

This...exactly this....is what's irking me.

It fudges the debate.

Did the Government delay a bit too long? IMO, yes.

Did they get all flustered, panic, and tie themselves in knots briefly over strategies? Yes.

Should they have spent all February stocking up on PPE, test kits, ventilators etc? Or at the very least putting the orders in? Yes, yes,  yes.

Are all these missteps going to dramatically increase the effect the coronavirus has on our population? I'm undecided on the extent to date. We'll know more in the next 2-4 weeks. 

When all this is over, will there be a full enquiry and assessment of what went on? 100% yes there will. And I've no doubt heads will roll if needs be. These aren't minor clerical or accounting errors, unfortunately 10's of thousands are likely to die.

But until we're at least more than half the way through this crisis, I think it's best to hold counsel, before starting with the recriminations. Firstly, because it's unhelpful, and more importantly,  because none of us have the full story yet. 

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Just now, RoverDom said:

Bang on. I think it should be the norm that there is some sort of review after a major crisis whether we had done everything perfectly or not. There will be learning points to take from this through the good stuff done and the bad stuff. I just hope it's done constructively, a genuine "how do we do it better next time" exercise. I'm not interested in a witch hunt or to have people branded as criminals as I think all decisions have been made with good intent on the data available. Unless of course it transpires that there was genuine negligence like "aww screw em who needs PPE we'll pretend it's a priority and just do it when we can."

 

Like testing is a weakspot but I dont think its through lack of trying. Let a review find how we can improve the process in the future rather than sending Hancock to the stocks if he doesnt hit 100k per day. 

A senior physician said that one of the reasons resting capability can’t be ramped up is due to the reagents Public Health England deem as accurate enough are unavailable. There are alternative available but it takes time to change PHEs regulation apparently. There already is one finding that needs to be addressed for next time. 
 

The bad thing is that quite often reviews become two things: swept under the carpet or a witch hunt. Maybe I’m a bit of a sceptic but I struggle to trust reviews into governments these days. 

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5 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

A senior physician said that one of the reasons resting capability can’t be ramped up is due to the reagents Public Health England deem as accurate enough are unavailable. There are alternative available but it takes time to change PHEs regulation apparently. There already is one finding that needs to be addressed for next time. 
 

The bad thing is that quite often reviews become two things: swept under the carpet or a witch hunt. Maybe I’m a bit of a sceptic but I struggle to trust reviews into governments these days. 

Defo agree with that. Where I work (coming up 5 years) ballsed up a major procurement before I started and then ballsed up the actually contract costing the taxpayer around £100m. Naturally full public inquiry ordered in 2017(I think) but it was set up as a witch hunt, as a result it heavily criticised a number of people so it's now been held up in bureaucracy and judicial reviews. By the time its published it will have zero impact, the senior team has completely changed (through natural means) and the business has evolved so much the report will be irrelevant. Slightly swerving off topic but basically i agree that id be surprised if any public inquiry would be of any use even though if done properly could add some serious value. My only up is that the scientific community is big on its peer review so hopefully that aspect will be kicked about. However the other elements around economy, logistics, process etc I dont think will. 

 

 

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Talking of the Sun, this front page today page beggars belief.

On a day when another 900 plus died to take the total to almost 9,000 because of this bungling government which caused this crisis to be so much worse than it needed to be by wasting the crucial early weeks, this excuse for a newspaper has the gall to call it a "Good Friday"!

borisss.jpg

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1 hour ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

It’s just not really the subject to be posting some of the over the top things you are. And you know it. No qualms with the way you describe the Tories in the political thread but to be accusing them of “unleashing the virus on the U.K.” is plainly wrong.

Id say your reaction to this has been very emotional. Unable to separate fact and instead looking for a stick to beat at any opportunity isn’t rational. 

Calm down. It's a messageboard.

If you don't like the message Guido Fawkes might suit you better

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16 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

980 dead today; Italy's worse day has been 971. 

And Hancock is still  making excuses.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52239925

Of course the UK is going to be amongst the worst hit in the western hemisphere. Our diet is generally poor, obesity rates are the highest in Europe. As are heart, lung diseases and I believe one of the highest rates of diet related diabetes. 

As for PPE it is shocking. However when the richest city in the richest nation has the exact same issues. You know its a worldwide issue. Funnily enough the only nation that hasnt struggled is China where the stuff is produced... But our reliance on China is another matter. 

Tbh I find yours and fellow members whole attitude towards this quite disturbing. This isn't some socialist knock about session. Its got to the point where nurses who cared for the PM have been heavily critized for holding up a banner. Saying get well boris... Very sad

Edited by Bazzanotsogreat
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2 minutes ago, Bazzanotsogreat said:

Of course the UK is going to be amongst the worst hit in the western hemisphere.

Rubbish, we are an island and should have pulled the drawbridge up straight away.  Still flights are coming in.

Many people will die because of incompetence.

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