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20 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

What is sizeable minority?

I went for a walk yesterday afternoon for 30 mins and barely anyone was out. Our streets have no one on them. Sky News went to 3 different parks within the birmingham area. A few people out exercising but that's was it. The vast majority are listening and doing the right thing. You are never going to get 100% people listening but I would say 95% of people are. 

Parks are often policed at the moment hence why people aren't flouting rules there. but plenty of hanging out on streets and the like. Evidenced by numerous people. 

Also the article I posted on number of parties alone shows.it is a significant minority and more of a problem then you are acknowledgeing. 

20 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Alot of footballers are training on their own. So it's like their hour of exercise which is allow. 

I was referring the Spurs training. And the incidents involving Walker and Grelish. 

20 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

 

 

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I go for a walk every day. Mostly to a quiet beauty spot near where I live. By and large people are behaving sensibly, dogs on leads, maintaining a good distance between strangers etc.

You do get the thoughtless ones though. On my way back I passed the end of a row of small cottages. Half way down the row a group of about 6 bikers/ tattoo models were having a party. The barby was on the go as was the ale.

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9 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

Apologists for this lamentable government might want to comment on the latest news on sky from the medical experts who they love quoting who are now saying Britain is on course to be the worst affected country in Europe.

And after her despicable comment s yesterday perhaps they might like to explain why Cruella de Patel is still in a job that she was never qualified for in the first place

I've always said judge at the end. There will be multiple outbreaks of this thing. As soon as lockdown is lifted it will spread again, in every country. We're approaching the first peak, there will be multiple peaks and yes our first peak might end up being the worst in Europe but if we've had more spread during the first wave our following peaks might not be as bad. As long as critical car capacity isnt breached then I dont think a higher spread in wave 1 is a significant issue. 

I dont yet have a view on whether the governments approach is good or bad but I dont think anyone can judge until the very end I.e. when a vaccine starts getting rolled out. 

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4 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

I go for a walk every day. Mostly to a quiet beauty spot near where I live. By and large people are behaving sensibly, dogs on leads, maintaining a good distance between strangers etc.

You do get the thoughtless ones though. On my way back I passed the end of a row of small cottages. Half way down the row a group of about 6 bikers/ tattoo models were having a party. The barby was on the go as was the ale.

I'd agree with this, I do a lot of running and the past few weeks have been confined to routes starting at my front door so I think I've covered most of the blueprint of the town in the last month or so. People on the whole are behaving and everyone gives each other a wide berth. I was out for about 90 minutes yesterday and out of the many people I saw, i only saw one group of 2 people who clearly weren't from the same household. 

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3 hours ago, OldEwoodBlue said:

I am not disagreeing but at this point mass testing isn't much benefit imo. It's a short term complete waste of resource. Operational testing for front line is all that is needed.

The only test that matters and gives us a medium to long term benefit to the population, is the antibody test... which doesn't exist yet. i.e. Germany, Malta & the UK will all need to see who had it before we can consider "normality".

I hope my government are focussing and investing resources (which ultimately I will have to pay for) on something which will give value for money.

I am not an epidemiologist but

The proven way Covid 19 is controlled is:

Test, Trace, Isolate

South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Malta  are proving this works. By mass testing, you get to know where the virus is and can trace then isolate carriers. 

UK and US are showing what happens when in effect you do next to no testing.  

Chris Whitty finally admited the UK should have started mass testing weeks ago. FFS why are these so called experts so slow to grasp the bleeding obvious.

Sadly, Hong Kong and Singapore are showing antibody testing might well not work. Horrifically evidence is beginning to point to Covid 19 striking twice.

 

 

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There's a huge outcry regarding PPE availability and the amount required seems to be beyond the worlds manufacturing capability at the moment.

Surely there must be 'reusable' PPE that can be washed / sterilised as required, or if there isn't, it should be high on the list of 'to be developed' after we get through this.

I'm certainly not insinuating that it isn't required or that it's being used incorrectly, but to supply a 'single use' item with the current, unprecedented demand would appear to be unachievable.

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3 minutes ago, Silas said:

 

 

And to add to this I wish people (journalists/piers Morgan) would have a basic grasp of statistics when talking about death rates. Hypothetically if the daily death rate went 920, 921, 922, 923. Each day they would be spouting '"record number of deaths, this is a disgrace, nothing is working." When actually although each death being tragic, that sort of trend is an encouraging sign at this stage that things are starting to level off. 

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19 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

The right type of PPE? As in complying with WHO guidelines and in date. I very much doubt that from the evidence I have heard and seen (photographically) from a number of sources. From the numerous complaints on social media and in the news from NHS staff I doubt it highly. 

Well I would imagine that if senior doctors was wearing it it was the right PPE. Did I ask them? Nope!

Do we need to keep buying PPE kits? Yes of course. 

20 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

Well that may be an isolated incident as, like.i said above, most NHS staff would say they haven't. One might say that's a bit of propoganda...

They were asked the question and answered the question. 

Most NHS staff? 

 

17 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

Parks are often policed at the moment hence why people aren't flouting rules there. but plenty of hanging out on streets and the like. Evidenced by numerous people. 

Also the article I posted on number of parties alone shows.it is a significant minority and more of a problem then you are acknowledgeing. 

What is significant minority? 

Like the Police chiefs around all counties have said the vast majority of people are following the rules. Like I keep saying you arent going 100% people following the rules. 

17 minutes ago, Blue blood said:

 

I was referring the Spurs training. And the incidents involving Walker and Grelish. 

 

Spurs was condemned for Mourinho's actions. 

Grealish and Walker were both stupid, foolish and irresponsible for their actions. What more do you want me to say? 

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2 hours ago, chaddyrovers said:

Malta doing a 1,000 test a day is nothing compare to our country given our population total to Malta. 

We are doing more than 10k test per day. Hopefully we will hit 100,000 test by end of the month. I posted a link last night saying we should have the tests ready to meet these targets. 

I posted that when the UK was testing 1,500 per day and Malta 1,000 per day.

UK population is 67 million, Malta population 0.5 million.

Even at 10,000 tests, the UK is running at one test per 6,700 population. In Malta it is one test per 500 population. 

Never mind Chaddy, you got it the wrong way round.

Typically, one patient requires at least 3 tests on themselves and can generate 10 to 20 tests on people traced as having been contacted by them.

In Malta, we have 319 cases which at an average of 15 tests per case requires 4,785 tests or in other words, everybody - patient and contacts is tested in Malta in under 5 days.

Germany running at 500,000 tests per day is getting round its 125,452 cases and contacts in just under 4 days.

In the UK, there are 78,991 cases which at an average of 15 tests per case require 1,184,865 tests or in other words, everybody - patient and contacts are tested in the UK in over 120 days.

Or to put it another way 96% of the people who should be tested in the UK are not being when they should be.

Absent all other data I think this explains the following death rates from Covid 19

Malta 1 per 167,000

Germany 1 per 33,000

UK 1 per 6,785 head of population.

 

Edited by philipl
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13 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Grealish and Walker were both stupid, foolish and irresponsible for their actions. What more do you want me to say? 

Chaddy, therein lies the rub, they are not the only foolish and irresponsible ones.

They live and move amongst us, spreading their virus. It's a bit like compound interest, it gets bigger quicker.

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Just now, Yoogo said:

Patient zero was in Wuhan, and so we all know that it originated in China - that makes them responsible, and they should answer to the world when all of this is over. I just find it curious as to why the Express is saying with certainty that he virus originated in a bat cave, when the rest of media outlets appear to be suggesting without certainty that it originated in a seafood market. No major issue. Just wondering.

It certainly isn't a seafood market.

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37 minutes ago, Silas said:

 

 

You absolutely get the feeling that several posters on this very site would be happy to see the death rate increase to score a point or two, it actually makes me sick to post this but it’s quite clear.

There are no winners in this current crisis, only losers, thousands of families have lost loved ones yet we have a small faceless minority rubbing their hands at the numbers increasing, absolutely disgusting. 

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2 minutes ago, Gav said:

You absolutely get the feeling that several posters on this very site would be happy to see the death rate increase to score a point or two, it actually makes me sick to post this but it’s quite clear.

That is utterly unfair and uncalled for.

Apologise.

It is a hard fact that the British are dying of covid 19 at 5 times the rate Germans are and 20 times the rate people in Malta are.

It is a tragedy and a political failure of monumental proportions.

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17 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Well I would imagine that if senior doctors was wearing it it was the right PPE. Did I ask them? Nope!

How about the nurses and care workers? See this is the thing. It may look ok but actually when compared to WHO standards and the best before date (or whatever it is) is checked, it may not actually be adequate protection. No way you could know that - or me.for that matter - unless told by NHS staff and those in the know. Sadly the reports from.the NHS - including photographic evidence- is that best before dates and WHO standards are being missed.

17 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Do we need to keep buying PPE kits? Yes of course. 

No, no, no, no that is not the question, very cleverly diverted. My issue is: was/ is there enough PPE and is it at the right level- the answer to which is a resounding no. Nice change of question though 

17 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

They were asked the question and answered the question. 

Most NHS staff? 

From all the hospitals and communities I know of. From the vast outpourings on social media and by the nursing and doctor reps. So yeah I think that is representative of most of the NHS. 

17 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

 

What is significant minority? 

Like the Police chiefs around all counties have said the vast majority of people are following the rules. Like I keep saying you arent going 100% people following the rules. 

A significant minority - as I agree not everyone will keep the rules - is a level at which it purpetuates and spreads the virus. This is clearly the case as it's not just one or two, it's thousands. Now given the impact this has on multiplying the virus and spreading it those are unacceptable numbers and affects innocent lives too. 

17 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Spurs was condemned for Mourinho's actions. 

Grealish and Walker were both stupid, foolish and irresponsible for their actions. What more do you want me to say? 

The point of it was that it shows across society there is a significant level of disregard for the isolation. From street parties to footballers the point of mentioning it was to show evidence that there is real issues with people not obeying the lockdown. 

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Just now, philipl said:

I am not going to give details but the sourcing of PPE in the UK is far far more shambolic than I think anybody posting on here could imagine.

It's hardly surprising Phillip given the evidence we see from NHS staff every evening on our TV screens. For students of history there are a lot of parallels with this PPE crisis and the " Shell Shortage " crisis of the early years of WW 1. That eventually brought down the Liberal government of the day and led to the formation of a Coalition government.

If there really is no immunity to this virus the whole World is in very big trouble.

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Just now, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

If there really is no immunity to this virus the whole World is in very big trouble.

 
Some increasing evidence that the virus could be biphasic. This means people could catch it twice, with different symptoms in each phase. An example of another virus that does this is varicella, that causes chickenpox in the first bout and shingles later on after lying dormant in the individual for years. Should this be confirmed, we cannot rely on natural immunity but only possibly on a vaccine. It is also not clear whether recovered persons continue to remain infectious or whether they can become infectious again later. This virus is a nasty POS. 
 
Hopefully this will not be the case, but we cannot assume anything at this stage.
 
There is more than one study pointing in the direction of the 91 cases of re-infection in South Korea. The problem is that in a chaotic epidemic situation, quality control of tests is impossible. There have certainly been many false positives and false negatives. Accuracy rate of current tests is not higher than 70%.
 
There have been cases of patients testing negative twice or more using swabs, but testing positive when taking fluid from the lungs. But that required extraction of fluid under general anaesthesia.
 
 
This is from the guy co-ordinating the EU response to Covid 19.
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9 minutes ago, Gav said:

You absolutely get the feeling that several posters on this very site would be happy to see the death rate increase to score a point or two, it actually makes me sick to post this but it’s quite clear.

There are no winners in this current crisis, only losers, thousands of families have lost loved ones yet we have a small faceless minority rubbing their hands at the numbers increasing, absolutely disgusting. 

What a ridiculous post Gav. 
 

the arguments on here have pretty much consistently been about whether the government was too slow off the mark and following the wrong advice early on. In my opinion that is gradually becoming the thinking of a lot of people around the country And Europe including other scientists here and abroad. 
for some reason you seem to want to stop that debate, while insisting your own view that the government has always been correct in everything it’s done. 

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13 minutes ago, Gav said:

You absolutely get the feeling that several posters on this very site would be happy to see the death rate increase to score a point or two, it actually makes me sick to post this but it’s quite clear.

There are no winners in this current crisis, only losers, thousands of families have lost loved ones yet we have a small faceless minority rubbing their hands at the numbers increasing, absolutely disgusting. 

I think that's out of order. It's just been on the radio news that we're heading to be the worst affected country in Europe in terms of deaths. Should we pretend that this isn't happening ? 

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11 minutes ago, philipl said:

That is utterly unfair and uncalled for.

Apologise.

It is a hard fact that the British are dying of covid 19 at 5 times the rate Germans are and 20 times the rate people in Malta are.

It is a tragedy and a political failure of monumental proportions.

Coming from someone who claimed Public Health was working on a different social distancing approach for joggers and has consistently posted fake news on this very thread, you've got more front than Blackpool.

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Just now, Gav said:

Coming from someone who claimed Public Health was working on a different social distancing approach for joggers and has consistently posted fake news on this very thread, you've got more front than Blackpool.

Joggers generate a far bigger aura of aerosols than walkers and Belgian and Dutch studies have recommended doubling the social distancing behind people running.

 

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18 minutes ago, Gav said:

You absolutely get the feeling that several posters on this very site would be happy to see the death rate increase to score a point or two, it actually makes me sick to post this but it’s quite clear.

There are no winners in this current crisis, only losers, thousands of families have lost loved ones yet we have a small faceless minority rubbing their hands at the numbers increasing, absolutely disgusting. 

No mate. I think it's because my loved ones, friends and family are at risk, because people are dying, that I'm so critical.  

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