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1 minute ago, 47er said:

Given the pressure the NHS is under i'd be waiting for the actual number of infections to go down very significantly.

This "hoax' has cost over 80000 lives already.

We may never get back to "normal" it depends on how effective the vaccines are in both the short and long terms.

Scientists are urging the government to toughen the "lockdown" not relax it.

Ok agree that pressure needs to be off the NHS but I'd tweak it to say number of hospitalizations rather than infections. If all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and its circulating amongst the young and healthy with high cases low hospitalizations then I dont see any reason to not be lifting restrictions. 

We're going to have to get back to some sort of normal at some point (even if its later than I would like) it may not be like before the virus but we're going to have to get back to people being able to socialise, go to school / college, see their family members do recreational activities. It's not feasible to be under house arrest for the rest of our lives. 

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3 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

Ok agree that pressure needs to be off the NHS but I'd tweak it to say number of hospitalizations rather than infections. If all the vulnerable have been vaccinated and its circulating amongst the young and healthy with high cases low hospitalizations then I dont see any reason to not be lifting restrictions. 

We're going to have to get back to some sort of normal at some point (even if its later than I would like) it may not be like before the virus but we're going to have to get back to people being able to socialise, go to school / college, see their family members do recreational activities. It's not feasible to be under house arrest for the rest of our lives. 

My point is that you would have to wait and see the outcomes of mass immunisation first.

For a start, how many people will refuse to the jab?

Going back to normal still seems a long way ahead even being optimistic.

I'm going with the experts.

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8 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

We're going to have to get back to some sort of normal at some point (even if its later than I would like) it may not be like before the virus but we're going to have to get back to people being able to socialise, go to school / college, see their family members do recreational activities. It's not feasible to be under house arrest for the rest of our lives. 

I'm working on the assumption it will be Easter weekend before that happens. 

So, a 3 month stretch ahead.

But as long as these vaccines still cover the mutations, from then onwards we'll be on the road to normality.

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11 minutes ago, 47er said:

Going back to normal still seems a long way ahead even being optimistic.

Surely by summer? (and not just cos that's when my wedding is meant to be). I know the experts are warning there could be restrictions next December but Boris will always go earlier I reckon, just look at his track record. Assuming we get this wave under control soon, I think the combination of the number of people who have already had it, those with some sort of immunity already, the vaccination of the most at risk and summer conditions means we'll be back to a reasonably free way of life. If I still have to wear a mask in shops and try and give a 2m berth to others then I can live with that. 

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19 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

Assuming we get this wave under control soon,

Sadly that's a huge assumption. Who knows what twists and turns will occur before this nightmare is over?

A variant or mutation which is immune to current vaccines is surely possible?

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1 hour ago, 47er said:

Sadly that's a huge assumption. Who knows what twists and turns will occur before this nightmare is over?

A variant or mutation which is immune to current vaccines is surely possible?

Variants are a concern. But with the assumption that we don't get a vaccine resistent varient I would say "normality" will be back around end of April. By then around half the population should have been jabbed once, the 15M vulnerable should have all be jabbed and had six weeks to work up immunity, the weather's getting a lot better, and hospitalisations should have dropped off significantly.

I put "normality" in brackets as things like restaurants, cinemaa and pubs should be open. But I can see government advice to still be to wear a mask, avoid crowds, work from home if possible. Mass events like music festivals and things I can see not being allowed.

I know to some the above seems like an incredibly over optimistic scenario. All I can say is we will be able to tell by end of Jan. By then we will have had a significant amount of the vulnerable population jabbed and we will be able to see if their hospitalisations are dropping off as expected. If so (vaccine resistent varient risk excluding) things will look positive.

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A few experts doing the rounds this morning on Marr/Ridge. Still expecting some form of social distancing will be needed next winter and for the virus to be with us for many years/indefinitely. 

Also, t'experts reckon a lot more people than just the most vulnerable will have to be vaccinated before a semblance of normality can be achieved. That will take until next Autumn according to Hancock. 

Pragmatism over false optimism every time. 

Edited by Hoochie Bloochie Mama
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Also on Marr is Hancock saying all adults will be offered vaccine by autumn. He sounds like he knows there is a lack of compliance to the rules but doesn't want to go into detail until additional rules are made. He should have been on my road about 1am this morning if he has any doubts!

Essential for the vaccine to be out quicker but got to say the decision to have Blackburn Cathedral as a central hub is a mistake. The building may tick boxes for disabled access but lacks parking, building size and general access as it is in town centre which also means many will have to negotiate the ridiculous oneway traffic system designs (at a distance!!!) by the Council's partners. 

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16 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Also, t'experts reckon a lot more people than just the most vulnerable will have to be vaccinated before a semblance of normality can be achieved

Did they say why that is the case? Surely if we've protected the vast majority of people who would have otherwise ended up in hospital and / or die we'll be in a good place? 

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Hardly leading the way Gav, as we have been vaccinating for a month now and she clearly qualifies for the first group. I assume they have waited to give her the Oxford vaccine rather than making her travel to a local centre to have the Pfizer one. I can't help thinking it would have had much more effect had she gone down to her local GP in Windsor to have it a couple of weeks ago.

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9 minutes ago, only2garners said:

Hardly leading the way Gav, as we have been vaccinating for a month now and she clearly qualifies for the first group. I assume they have waited to give her the Oxford vaccine rather than making her travel to a local centre to have the Pfizer one. I can't help thinking it would have had much more effect had she gone down to her local GP in Windsor to have it a couple of weeks ago.

Incorrect.

The Queen and the Duke were in the 2nd priority group behind care home residents and staff, they never waited for Oxford vaccine at all, they stood in line like everyone else.

But the wider message here is that this sends a clear message to the nation that all the conspiracy theories, misinformation, mostly peddled on social media, simply isn't true, everyone should have the vaccine.

As I said, proper leadership, a great woman leading from the front.  

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Technically they are in the second group but practically the first, as most care home residents have not yet been vaccinated. This is because the Pfizer vaccine is not practical for them.

On the other hand in many areas all the over 80s group have had at least their first jab. My wife's old surgery are already dealing with patients in the 75-79 group and they have only been up and running for two weeks. And none of them have had to queue beyond a few seconds.

Den - she would only have been cold if there was a draught inside Windsor Castle.

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27 minutes ago, only2garners said:

My wife's old surgery are already dealing with patients in the 75-79 group and they have only been up and running for two weeks. And none of them have had to queue beyond a few seconds.

Ribble Valley seems to be running a bit behind then. No vax for the over 75's I know who live there. Where are you?

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1 hour ago, den said:

Hope she didn’t get cold queueing Gav.

 

And behind Murdoch and Johnson in the queue

Edited by Jimbo
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2 hours ago, den said:

Hope she didn’t get cold queueing Gav.

The symbolic impact of the Queen/Prince Philip having the vaccine and the support to public health teams across the country shouldn't be underestimated or ever be taken for granted. 

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1 hour ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Ribble Valley seems to be running a bit behind then. No vax for the over 75's I know who live there. Where are you?

The centre is in Bamber Bridge covering 3 practices in Bamber Bridge and Walton-le-Dale. They have only just started on the under 80s yesterday and have now got through two lots of Pfizer jabs, so around 2,000.

It does depend on where your GP surgery is in the plan. I know my wife's was in Phase 3 snd started on 29th December. The site in Penwortham close to where we live started the week before sdo I assume is further ahead. What I don't know is if there are any phases after 3.

I suppose it's quite likely that there are more over 80s in Ribble Valley.

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9 minutes ago, Gav said:

The symbolic impact of the Queen/Prince Philip having the vaccine and the support to public health teams across the country shouldn't be underestimated or ever be taken for granted. 

Absolutely Gav, but I think it would have been even better had she gone out to a centre to have the jab two weeks ago and had a photo op with a few other old dears - much more powerful.

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10 minutes ago, only2garners said:

The centre is in Bamber Bridge covering 3 practices in Bamber Bridge and Walton-le-Dale. They have only just started on the under 80s yesterday and have now got through two lots of Pfizer jabs, so around 2,000.

It does depend on where your GP surgery is in the plan. I know my wife's was in Phase 3 snd started on 29th December. The site in Penwortham close to where we live started the week before sdo I assume is further ahead. What I don't know is if there are any phases after 3.

I suppose it's quite likely that there are more over 80s in Ribble Valley.

There definitely are lots of over 80s in the Ribble Valley and most of those i know have had the first jab. The GP practices did care homes this week too, going out and vaccinating residents and carers. Photos on Facebook. 

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Sadly, while there are those who continue to ignore advice/the law, cases will continue. As I walked the dog in Witton Park earlier, I heard a loud bellow. Looking around for a fall injury (be careful there's a deadly amount of ice down there) or a loose, aggressive dog, I saw 6 or 7 teenage lads with plenty of provisions. They were actually taking turns to shout caveman-style right in the middle of the field for all to see. No thought of others. No thought of their own families. No thought.

Short of police actually fining such people many thousands, what would ever reach those Neanderthal skulls?

Edited by Riverside under the drip
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4 hours ago, Gav said:

Incorrect.

The Queen and the Duke were in the 2nd priority group behind care home residents and staff, they never waited for Oxford vaccine at all, they stood in line like everyone else.

But the wider message here is that this sends a clear message to the nation that all the conspiracy theories, misinformation, mostly peddled on social media, simply isn't true, everyone should have the vaccine.

As I said, proper leadership, a great woman leading from the front.  

Proper leadership?! She’s done the minimum expected of her. Nothing wrong with that but stop suggesting that it’s anything more than it is. 

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