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Surely the point of vaccines isnt to stop transmission but to stop people dying / getting seriously ill from the virus? If we have vaccinated the group most likely to get seriously ill/ die and hospital capacity is at a more manageable level is there really any reason why we cant start loosening restrictions whilst keeping less onerous measures in place (masks 2m etc)? 

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2 hours ago, philipl said:

As the article points out the numbers are to be taken with a big pinch of salt. 

That said if the population is really down by 700k (nearly 10% of London's population) over the next year the property market is going to take an absolute beating.

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1 hour ago, RoverDom said:

Surely the point of vaccines isnt to stop transmission but to stop people dying / getting seriously ill from the virus? If we have vaccinated the group most likely to get seriously ill/ die and hospital capacity is at a more manageable level is there really any reason why we cant start loosening restrictions whilst keeping less onerous measures in place (masks 2m etc)? 

I agree with you - if the most at risk have been vaccinated by mid Feb, and had time to work up immunity (3 weeks, so around mid March) I would say in my totally uneducated opinion that things will open up. 

The reason we are in lockdown is to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. If the at risk groups are vaccinated - and all the vaccines give a 100% immunity of getting seriously ill as I understand it once immunity is worked up - then there shouldn't really be a significant risk of the NHS being overwhelmed again.  

I don't think we will be able to totally open up as it is not zero risk for people outside the risk groups yet to be innoculated - still a very small % could get very sick so some level of control will be needed. But pubs/restaurants etc should be able to open. High density stuff like public transport, music festivals etc maybe not possible. 

Only thing I can see that would break this is the risk of a variant which could evade the vaccine? (And I suppose if a lot of people in the risk groups choose to not have the vaccine you do have the issue of essentially opening them up to the virus... but then I suppose what can you do about that except stay in lockdown forever? )

What's your view @only2garners? Do you think once the risk groups are inoculated and have time to work up immunity we are able to significantly open up? Or does a larger part of the population need to be vaccinated?

Edited by joey_big_nose
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9 hours ago, joey_big_nose said:

I don't think we will be able to totally open up as it is not zero risk for people outside the risk groups yet to be innoculated - still a very small % could get very sick so some level of control will be needed. But pubs/restaurants etc should be able to open. High density stuff like public transport, music festivals etc maybe not possible

You might be right that this is how it pans out. I dont think it should though. I appreciate that there is a risk I could die from Covid but for me and many others the risk of dying in a car crash is far higher so I think that by the time the vulnerable are protected theres no reason we cant open up fully. Support should be given to those who want to remove themselves from society for a few more weeks until they get their vaccine. 

 

The thing about risk is you cant really 100% eliminate it, just mitigate it to a sufficiently low level. In this case as long as Covid and the human race are around there will be a risk. So essentially it's where you draw the line and what level of risk you accept. However I know there will be any across society who will want to keep  asymptoting towards zero risk. 

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7 hours ago, chaddyrovers said:

Britain's nimble vaccine taskforce puts EU bureaucracy to shame – and shows how Brexit can succeed

Britain was successful in securing jabs because we could pursue the interests of one country, not 28

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/15/britains-nimble-vaccine-taskforce-puts-eu-bureaucracy-shame/amp/ 

 

The numbers don't lie, the EU are way behind on the vaccine front, its been managed terribly with PFizer vaccines not reaching EU countries in numbers expected.

Finally we have something world leading after 10 months, lets hope it continues and we get everyone vaccinated. 

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1 hour ago, RoverDom said:

You might be right that this is how it pans out. I dont think it should though. I appreciate that there is a risk I could die from Covid but for me and many others the risk of dying in a car crash is far higher so I think that by the time the vulnerable are protected theres no reason we cant open up fully. Support should be given to those who want to remove themselves from society for a few more weeks until they get their vaccine. 

 

The thing about risk is you cant really 100% eliminate it, just mitigate it to a sufficiently low level. In this case as long as Covid and the human race are around there will be a risk. So essentially it's where you draw the line and what level of risk you accept. However I know there will be any across society who will want to keep  asymptoting towards zero risk. 

I guess it will be about whether it really is a similar risk as dying in a car crash or of it is substantially greater than that. I am not sure on say the over 50s for example who are outside the 15M risk groups. 

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Now we have the coronavirus vaccine, how soon can we get back to normal life? | World news | The Guardian

Probably worth reading. 

Interesting listening to someone on the TV yesterday. Apparently Boris was told last July that unless he reduced Covid numbers significantly over the summer that not only would it come back with a vengeance in winter, but it would also produce mutant versions. Both those things have happened. Boris ignored this advice. 

Vaccinating 15m and expecting life to return to normal is naïve for those very reasons. Mutations can still happen, possibly to the extent they stop vaccines working. Listening to someone in ICU last night he was saying that this wave is making people far more ill than last Spring, and is affecting younger people a lot more. Letting the virus rip again from mid-Feb amongst the 40m people who haven't had the vaccine would seem foolhardy to say the least. Then again, some people never learn. 

Edited by Hoochie Bloochie Mama
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18 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Now we have the coronavirus vaccine, how soon can we get back to normal life? | World news | The Guardian

Probably worth reading. 

Interesting listening to someone on the TV yesterday. Apparently Boris was told last July that unless he reduced Covid numbers significantly over the summer that not only would it come back with a vengeance in winter, but it would also produce mutant versions. Both those things have happened. Boris ignored this advice. 

Vaccinating 15m and expecting life to return to normal is naïve for those very reasons. Mutations can still happen, possibly to the extent they stop vaccines working. Listening to someone in ICU last night he was saying that this wave is making people far more ill than last Spring, and is affecting younger people a lot more. Letting the virus rip again from mid-Feb amongst the 40m people who haven't had the vaccine would seem foolhardy to say the least. Then again, some people never learn. 

We were all told in Summer that the chances of second and third waves were pretty high. We were also told the virus would probably mutate very much like the flu virus does. It wasn't a state secret, it was being discussed openly in the press.

Johnson and his pal in No11 ignored all that and just went their own sweet way and now we're all paying for it.

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43 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Got a link? 

The weakest performing one so far in the Chinese developed vaccine with only 50.4% prevention of any illness at all which is the bit the media and most people are drawn to.

However the key bit is this "But Butantan stressed that the vaccine is 78% effective in preventing mild cases that needed treatment and 100% effective in staving off moderate to serious cases." That is the same for all vaccines released.

That means, as I understand it, people are incredibly unlikely to end up in hospital. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-latin-america-55642648

Edited by joey_big_nose
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1 minute ago, joey_big_nose said:

The weakest performing one so far in the Chinese developed vaccine with only 58% prevention of any illness at all which is the bit the media and most people are drawn to.

However the key bit is this "But Butantan stressed that the vaccine is 78% effective in preventing mild cases that needed treatment and 100% effective in staving off moderate to serious cases." That is the same for all vaccines released.

That means, as I understand it, people are incredibly unlikely to end up in hospital. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-latin-america-55642648

That data looks incredibly sketchy! They look to be making it up as they go along. 

Other vaccines have been sold as 100% effective against severe illness so hopefully true. 

Edited by Hoochie Bloochie Mama
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1 minute ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

That data looks incredibly sketchy! They look to be making it up as they go along. 

In what way?

Findings of Oxford, Pfizer etc are the same? All the vaccines stop serious illness in 100% of cases as I understand it.

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2 minutes ago, joey_big_nose said:

In what way?

from the article:

Last week researchers at the Butantan Institute, which has been conducting the trials in Brazil, announced that the vaccine had a 78% efficacy against "mild-to-severe" Covid-19 cases.

But on Tuesday they revealed that calculations for this figure did not include data from a group of "very mild infections" among those who received the vaccine that did not require clinical assistance.

With the inclusion of this data, the efficacy rate is now 50.4%, said researchers.

But Butantan stressed that the vaccine is 78% effective in preventing mild cases that needed treatment and 100% effective in staving off moderate to serious cases.

Seems very confused. 

Findings of Oxford, Pfizer etc are the same? All the vaccines stop serious illness in 100% of cases as I understand it.

They all seem very hopeful this is the case. I suppose it depends on the age group it's been tested on. AZ left out over 55's in one of their trials which was why they had to do it again.

 

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2 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

 

The way I understand it is if the vaccines allowed any % to become seriously ill they would not be approved.

Anyway we've vaccinated 3m odd now so we will soon see in the next couple of months if any do get seriously ill from catching the virus post vaccinstion. I think the expectation is even a tiny amount of those vaccinated ending up in intensive care would be a huge (and very worrying!) surprise.  

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8 hours ago, Gav said:

The numbers don't lie, the EU are way behind on the vaccine front, its been managed terribly with PFizer vaccines not reaching EU countries in numbers expected.

Finally we have something world leading after 10 months, lets hope it continues and we get everyone vaccinated. 

The UK Government and the Vaccination task force have delivered on getting access to vast amount of Vaccines. 

Plus the roll out of them and getting the top 4 groups vaccinate by 15th February 

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18 hours ago, joey_big_nose said:

I agree with you - if the most at risk have been vaccinated by mid Feb, and had time to work up immunity (3 weeks, so around mid March) I would say in my totally uneducated opinion that things will open up. 

The reason we are in lockdown is to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed. If the at risk groups are vaccinated - and all the vaccines give a 100% immunity of getting seriously ill as I understand it once immunity is worked up - then there shouldn't really be a significant risk of the NHS being overwhelmed again.  

I don't think we will be able to totally open up as it is not zero risk for people outside the risk groups yet to be innoculated - still a very small % could get very sick so some level of control will be needed. But pubs/restaurants etc should be able to open. High density stuff like public transport, music festivals etc maybe not possible. 

Only thing I can see that would break this is the risk of a variant which could evade the vaccine? (And I suppose if a lot of people in the risk groups choose to not have the vaccine you do have the issue of essentially opening them up to the virus... but then I suppose what can you do about that except stay in lockdown forever? )

What's your view @only2garners? Do you think once the risk groups are inoculated and have time to work up immunity we are able to significantly open up? Or does a larger part of the population need to be vaccinated?

Firstly I should point out I have no medical experience at all - in fact I haven't even got a Science O level apart from Geology. I do however know a fair bit about what's happening with the vaccine programme from my wife's involvement. So my word on the effect of mass vaccination allowing opening up is no more informed than most others.

I do think it will be quite a while before anything approaching normality will return. No doubt we should be able to get out of the level of lockdown we have now by March/April but social distancing and face masks are going to be around for a long time yet. Pubs will probably open but it might still be on the basis of having a meal. We're a mile away from anyone being able to go to a Rovers game and have beers in crowded pubs before and after the game. Although I suspect that at least some of us will get to watch live football sooner than that.

I can see that UK travel might be on the cards this Summer but I doubt there will be much in the way of International travel. And full normality will never come until we have the great majority of the world's population vaccinated. It's no good everyone in the UK being vaccinated if there are many other countries well behind us.

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11 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

The UK Government and the Vaccination task force have delivered on getting access to vast amount of Vaccines. 

Plus the roll out of them and getting the top 4 groups vaccinate by 15th February 

No they haven't, not yet anyway. The success of the vaccination programme so far has been down to excellent planning and delivery by the NHS - it's been planned since late Summer. The Government so far has made a few wrong steps with its mass vaccination centres. I heard on FiveLive this afternoon that the centre at Ashton Gate was bigging up it's wonderful performance today on the basis of managing 700 vaccinations a day this week. That's only a few more than the local GP practice centres are doing on a fraction of the resources. Yet the mass centres are being prioritised for vaccine delivery.

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15 minutes ago, only2garners said:

 The Government so far has made a few wrong steps with its mass vaccination centres. 

Over 2.3m vaccines have been given out so far, way above anyone else in Europe. The military have played a major role, it wouldn’t be the anywhere near those numbers without military support.

Its a phenomenal effort by all concerned and no amount of government bashing can hide that fact.

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You're right Gav that it is an excellent start. But it's got bugger all to do with central Government so far. Their fixation with prioritising grandiose centralised schemes needs to stop or it will just slow everything down.

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18 minutes ago, Gav said:

Over 2.3m vaccines have been given out so far, way above anyone else in Europe. The military have played a major role, it wouldn’t be the anywhere near those numbers without military support.

Its a phenomenal effort by all concerned and no amount of government bashing can hide that fact.

3.6M first doses as of yesterday. Doing about 320k a day. Basically on target to hit mid Feb.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?_ga=2.81886737.625431594.1610562987-1433914007.1609422585

 

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