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14 minutes ago, den said:

Chris Giles says we will hit 100,000 excess deaths by Saturday.

We wouldn’t have believed that 12 months ago.

There's plenty on here that won';t belive that today either though!

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1 hour ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

There's another letter in todays Guardian on this subject.. The gist of it is -  A woman in Wales has had both injections. She asked a nurse if it's OK to visit her daughter in three weeks time. The nurse replies " The Government advice is no ". When the woman asked why, the nurse said " Well, the vaccine may not work for you ".

Where does that leave us all ?

When they say the vaccine is 90% effective, what do you think happens to the other 10% ?

Very simplistically, the woman currently has a 1 in 10 chance of still being able to catch and become ill by the virus from her daughter who ( presuming she hasn't already had it), has a 100% chance of being able to catch it from someone else. Therefore there is still a risk there.

This time next year, hopefully the woman will have a 1 in 10 chance of catching the virus from her daughter, and the daughter will also only have a 1 in 10 chance of having the virus anyway because she has also been vaccinated. Therefore, whilst the risk is still there, it is now a lot, lot smaller.

If you can still be contagious after having the vaccine it gives a bigger risk. Either way, it will ultimately still lead to far less deaths.

I'm sure there are scientific and mathematical flaws in that, but that will be the general gist I presume.

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4 minutes ago, Hasta said:

When they say the vaccine is 90% effective, what do you think happens to the other 10% ?

Very simplistically, the woman currently has a 1 in 10 chance of still being able to catch the virus from her daughter who, presuming she doesn't have it, has a 100% chance of being able to catch it from someone else. Therefore there is still a risk there.

This time next year, hopefully the woman will have a 1 in 10 chance of catching the virus from her daughter, and the daughter will also only have a 1 in 10 chance of having the virus anyway because she has also been vaccinated. Therefore, whilst the risk is still there, it is now a lot, lot smaller.

No one can guarantee 100% that when they leave the house they wont die but you assess the risks and act accordingly. 

Its estimated that 1 in 50 (2%) have covid. So there is a 2% chance her daughter has it. 10% chance that the vaccine doesnt work. They're quite small percentages to be locking her away. Mitigate it further by getting these 30 min tests to care homes. 

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17 minutes ago, Hasta said:

When they say the vaccine is 90% effective, what do you think happens to the other 10% ?

Very simplistically, the woman currently has a 1 in 10 chance of still being able to catch and become ill by the virus from her daughter who ( presuming she hasn't already had it), has a 100% chance of being able to catch it from someone else. Therefore there is still a risk there.

This time next year, hopefully the woman will have a 1 in 10 chance of catching the virus from her daughter, and the daughter will also only have a 1 in 10 chance of having the virus anyway because she has also been vaccinated. Therefore, whilst the risk is still there, it is now a lot, lot smaller.

If you can still be contagious after having the vaccine it gives a bigger risk. Either way, it will ultimately still lead to far less deaths.

I'm sure there are scientific and mathematical flaws in that, but that will be the general gist I presume.

Yes, I understand all that but I can't see how we can wait for another year for even a semblance of " normality ".

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23 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

 

Want to back that up with some kind of supporting evidence or viewpoint?

I mean people think all sorts of things about all sorts of things.

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21 minutes ago, den said:

Want to back that up with some kind of supporting evidence or viewpoint?

I mean people think all sorts of things about all sorts of things.

Exactly!

I carried out a similar survey of men, women & children (over 14) and 100% of respondents actually said that they believed that the Government was to blame due to the haphazard & confusing way in which restrictions & lockdown had been handled.

(Granted it was only me, the missus and the 2 kids still living at home but I don't have to tell you those exact details in my publicised data)

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48 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

No one can guarantee 100% that when they leave the house they wont die but you assess the risks and act accordingly. 

Its estimated that 1 in 50 (2%) have covid. So there is a 2% chance her daughter has it. 10% chance that the vaccine doesnt work. They're quite small percentages to be locking her away. Mitigate it further by getting these 30 min tests to care homes. 

 

37 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

Yes, I understand all that but I can't see how we can wait for another year for even a semblance of " normality ".

I don't disagree at all with either of you. I'm just pointing out the supposed 'logic' behind why the nurse has given that answer.

I presume the rule-makers think compliance to the guidelines will be even lower if people who have had it and people who are vaccinated can go and see whoever they want, and yet the rest of the population can't.

Plus they haven't announced whether someone who has been vaccinated can still catch and transmit the virus (I'm presuming the early signs are "no" as they have tested the vaccine on 1000's of people over the last few months and gained approval, and surely this was one of the results they were looking for. Mutations may be the fly in the ointment).

The question we are asking is what is the magic combination of people vaccinated / number of cases / number of deaths that will allow the handbrake to be lifted.

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21 minutes ago, den said:

Want to back that up with some kind of supporting evidence or viewpoint?

I mean people think all sorts of things about all sorts of things.

Well it can't be the government's fault can it? I mean if a person can't even acknowledge that a 24 hour turn around on schools is a poor do - whilst blaming the teachers for it - then the government are hardly going to be to blamed for a pandemic are they? 

 

The government have been feeding the public to blame narrative the whole time. Advice but not rules (e.g. early on don't go in pubs but we won't close them down) vague pieces of advice (stay alert), advice that is impossible to follow (act as if you have the virus). 

Factor in they haven't taken responsibility for the GCSE fiasco, breaking the parliamentary code, their mates breaking curfew, corruption in and out of pandemic - the meal vouchers being the latest shameful act - and something a tad less tangible in the form of a pandemic is going to have no chance at landing on their doorstep. 

Fwiw I think the public are in part to blame through non compliance albeit 80-90% imo is the government's terrible handling of it. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

There's another letter in todays Guardian on this subject.. The gist of it is -  A woman in Wales has had both injections. She asked a nurse if it's OK to visit her daughter in three weeks time. The nurse replies " The Government advice is no ". When the woman asked why, the nurse said " Well, the vaccine may not work for you ".

Where does that leave us all ?

A good question. I presume she's had two shots of the Pfizer vaccine and so it should be 95% effective i.e. 95 out of a 100 people will not catch or not get ill from Covid after their 2 jabs (still uncertainty about how the vaccine works). So that nurse is right, you could be in the 5% of people who will still get ill or catch it. 

It's only really when the vaccine (and virus) induced herd-immunity is generated that things can go back to normal-ish. But that will probably require booster vaccines. 

 

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1 hour ago, den said:

Want to back that up with some kind of supporting evidence or viewpoint?

I mean people think all sorts of things about all sorts of things.

Well the poll was done by YouGov and a good simple size of 2743 people from different regions, politics background, gender and age..

Tbh Den,I think the poll is very self explanatory to be fair. What more do you want? 

 

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I was being told earlier that Isle of White is now enlisting the help of the military to helicopter people to local hospitals on the mainland, due to a massive spike in infections, the local hospital has been over run.

This has possibly been triggered by Christmas mixing and second homes? (never been so I'm guessing on 2nd homes)

Must be extremely frightening for local people.

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34 minutes ago, Gav said:

I was being told earlier that Isle of White is now enlisting the help of the military to helicopter people to local hospitals on the mainland, due to a massive spike in infections, the local hospital has been over run.

This has possibly been triggered by Christmas mixing and second homes? (never been so I'm guessing on 2nd homes)

Must be extremely frightening for local people.

It will be from before the lockdown. So mixing over Christmas + new mutant variant spreading. Really only seeing the impact of that in hospitalisations now.

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33 minutes ago, Gav said:

I was being told earlier that Isle of White is now enlisting the help of the military to helicopter people to local hospitals on the mainland, due to a massive spike in infections, the local hospital has been over run.

This has possibly been triggered by Christmas mixing and second homes? (never been so I'm guessing on 2nd homes)

Must be extremely frightening for local people.

Military helicopters may be sent to evacuate Covid patients from Isle of Wight | World news | The Guardian

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1 hour ago, chaddyrovers said:

Well the poll was done by YouGov and a good simple size of 2743 people from different regions, politics background, gender and age..

Tbh Den,I think the poll is very self explanatory to be fair. What more do you want? 

 

The reason why you posted it? It’s completely meaningless in my opinion.

Edit. It’s obvious why you posted it.

Edited by den
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17 minutes ago, den said:

The reason why you posted it? It’s completely meaningless in my opinion.

Edit. It’s obvious why you posted it.

Read the poll and their views. Just like when people post similar polls support the lockdown measures you dont complain then. Wonder why? 

Just like you post Chris Giles numbers. Why? 

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3 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Read the poll and their views. Just like when people post similar polls support the lockdown measures you dont complain then. Wonder why? 

Just like you post Chris Giles numbers. Why? 

Chris Giles publishes facts Chaddy. Not even close to that.

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2 minutes ago, den said:

Chris Giles publishes facts Chaddy. Not even close to that.

The poll is people opinion when asked specific questions. You dont like the poll results so Den throws his toys out of pram yet again 

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1 minute ago, chaddyrovers said:

The poll is people opinion when asked specific questions. You dont like the poll results so Den throws his toys out of pram yet again 

Likewise I have seen you post loads of polls that support your viewpoint/argument/political leanings, but not a single one that goes against it. Therefore you only seem to like the poll results that you agree with as well.

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20 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

The poll is people opinion when asked specific questions. You dont like the poll results so Den throws his toys out of pram yet again 

I’ve thrown nothing out of anywhere Chaddy. I was asking you why you posted such a meaningless poll without even giving your views on it. 
 

You still haven’t, so it’s obvious the only reason, once again, is that you blindly post anything that defends your Tory party.

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First question tonight from a guy from Preston. If the new strain of the virus is more contagious than that in March, why then are the restrictions currently more relaxed (or words to that effect). Completely ignored by the Home Secretary. Continued to waffle for several minutes without addressing the question. As I type this, same question asked again by another guy. More waffle and, again, ignored.

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31 minutes ago, den said:

I’ve thrown nothing out of anywhere Chaddy. I was asking you why you posted such a meaningless poll without even giving your views on it. 
 

You still haven’t, so it’s obvious the only reason, once again, is that you blindly post anything that defends your Tory party.

Now Den that the public opinion really matters and is an indication of the true reality. Apart from when the polls says things like most people think Cummings had broken the rules.

I'm not really sure you get this game at all... 

Edit or when teachers say that 12 hours isn't a fair turn around for moving to online learning. That bunch of lazy work shy slackers know nothing. Public opinion doesn't count then either. 

Edited by Blue blood
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26 minutes ago, Claytons Left Boot said:

First question tonight from a guy from Preston. If the new strain of the virus is more contagious than that in March, why then are the restrictions currently more relaxed (or words to that effect). Completely ignored by the Home Secretary. Continued to waffle for several minutes without addressing the question. As I type this, same question asked again by another guy. More waffle and, again, ignored.

Blame game CLB. 
 

By Saturday 100,000 people will have died from covid related deaths. That falls at the feet of the government.

They can do something about that any time they like.

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