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7 hours ago, joey_big_nose said:

I think the vaccine will continue to be highly effective against SA varient in terms of reducing spread.

This may sound strange JBN, but believe it or not, the Kent variant is the biggest weapon we have at the moment to fight the SA variant. The Kent variant is so infectious that the SA one is struggling to take hold, but obviously that could change overtime.

 

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1 hour ago, Gav said:

This may sound strange JBN, but believe it or not, the Kent variant is the biggest weapon we have at the moment to fight the SA variant. The Kent variant is so infectious that the SA one is struggling to take hold, but obviously that could change overtime.

 

Yes it's crowding it out. 

I think the key point though is that the only thing we can test for is whether someone has Covid or not, not how much viral load people have. So we have to assume that any test positive is someone who can spread the disease - which logically makes sense. But is almost certainly not true.

So it's possible all of our modelling around the SA varient is way too pessimistic, and it may not really be able to spread amongst vaccinated people. So it's still going to get ultimately blocked by the vaccinations.

Will be interesting to see the results of studies.

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32,570,300 people in UK have now been vaccinated - A tremendous effort by everyone concerned

One in six UK adults are now fully vaccinated against Covid, with more than two million second doses given in the past week, according to the latest figures.

More than 8.9 million people have now received both doses - the equivalent of 17.0% of the adult population.

Breaking that down by nation, Wales is estimated to have given two doses to nearly a quarter of adults at 22.8%. In Northern Ireland it stands at 17.2%, in England it's 16.8% and in Scotland it's 15.5%.

 

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12 hours ago, joey_big_nose said:

Yes it's crowding it out. 

I think the key point though is that the only thing we can test for is whether someone has Covid or not, not how much viral load people have. So we have to assume that any test positive is someone who can spread the disease - which logically makes sense. But is almost certainly not true.

So it's possible all of our modelling around the SA varient is way too pessimistic, and it may not really be able to spread amongst vaccinated people. So it's still going to get ultimately blocked by the vaccinations.

Will be interesting to see the results of studies.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v1

 

Here's the data you are looking for ;-). It's not peer-reviewed and wasn't designed to test the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccines against the SA variant. 

The data suggests that a higher than expected proportion of vaccinated people who were infected had the SA variant. This suggests that the vaccine is less efficient. Similar results were shown for the Oxford-AZ vaccine, however both vaccines will prevent severe illness, hospitalisations and deaths.

Further better designed studies are ongoing.

Edited by Hannoverover
Spelling, sorry reading back it doesn't fully answer your question. Still interesting (for me) results nonetheless
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The Government are acting with their usual glacial way with respect to Coronavirus. Too little too late, they never learn

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/india-covid-variant-travel-ban-b1832904.html

 

India should be placed on the government’s “red list” of hotel quarantine countries due to the “terribly concerning” variant of coronavirus first discovered in the South Asian country, an expert has warned.

Professor Danny Altmann, a professor of immunology at Imperial College, said on Friday that he was worried that the variant could “scupper” Boris Johnson’s roadmap out of lockdown.

Public Health England (PHE) has reported that 73 cases of the B.1.617 variant, first detected in India, have been found in England, as well as four cases in Scotland.

It is currently designated as a “variant under investigation” (VUI) rather than a “variant of concern” (VOC), such as the Manaus (Brazil) or South Africa Covid-19 variants.

 

Bozo is obviously for a favouable Brexit deal from Modi so doesn't want to upset India

 

No 10 also insisted that the prime minister’s planned trip to India later this month would still go ahead, despite concerns about the variant.

“We have said that the programme will be slightly shorter than it will have been, and you can expect the main body of his programme to take place on Monday 26 April,” a Downing Street spokesperson told reporters.

“As you would expect, safety is obviously important and is a priority for us on this trip, which is why we will make sure that all elements of the visit are Covid-secure.”

 

Edited by Jimbo
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19 hours ago, Hannoverover said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v1

 

Here's the data you are looking for ;-). It's not peer-reviewed and wasn't designed to test the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccines against the SA variant. 

The data suggests that a higher than expected proportion of vaccinated people who were infected had the SA variant. This suggests that the vaccine is less efficient. Similar results were shown for the Oxford-AZ vaccine, however both vaccines will prevent severe illness, hospitalisations and deaths.

Further better designed studies are ongoing.

Ah but the key data is did those vaccinated people then pass it onto others which I don't believe we have good data on yet (but I suspect will be very rare).

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Dr Tim Spector of Kings College and the ZOE symptom study app thinks we've probably hit herd immunity.

He knows what he's talking about being an expert epidemiologist and having monitored data from 4.5M+ users for over a year.

Think we could be coming out of this now (all normal caveats apply - new varients could undermine things etc)

https://youtu.be/pD7V26exJuE

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The Indian variant seems to be causing a little more concern than the SA variant did at the same stage.

Why or why have we persisted with this bonkers open border policy for god knows how long?

Incompetence of the highest order, we can only hope this new variant doesn't throw us any curve balls.  

 

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On 06/05/2020 at 16:48, Silas said:

None of the figures match up in any way, shape, or form. It's all over the spot. 

You say I want to kick it down the road,  it works both ways. I say, why are some people so desperate to jump to conclusions and judgements in such a short space of time? It's pretty much universally accepted that the figures between countries are muddled at best at the moment.  

 

On 06/05/2020 at 17:27, Silas said:

I'm happy to plant my flag in the sand. There's 2 sets of data I'm interested in. That's excess deaths. I agree with Den that it will be an accurate reflection of performance. (I just don't agree with it being compared to other Countries right now, as the data isn't accurate.)

And also deaths per million. As economies of scale have to be relevant.

But if an analysis of excess deaths, reflected per million of population,  shows we are the worst in Europe (even the World) then that will indeed be a disgrace. Particularly as we had a head start on everyone else.

Just my own personal framework to judge this crisis by. Others, will criticise and choose their own route, that's up to them.

But I'm confident in those benchmarks as a fair reflection of the big picture. 

 

Well, it's coming up to a year since me and many others were getting lambasted in this thread for trying to inject a bit of reason and common sense into the death chart doom-mongering that was rampant on a pretty much daily basis.

Anyone that claimed we needed to wait a reasonable amount of time to judge and correlate all the data of the brand new and unknown pandemic that was sweeping across the World was basically rounded on, patronised, talked down to, and in the worst instances called idiots and disingenuous. 

Well, this month Britian has dropped out the top 20 in the World (21st), and is showing as 15th in Europe:

 https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

 

Now, that doesn't change the fact that major mistakes were made during this pandemic, particularly in the early days, and no doubt many thousands more lives could, and should, have been saved. And I'm sure it will be argued that with our infrastructure and timeline, why are we even near the top 20 and not down with Germany who are only just into the top 50. Fair enough and valid points. 

And there is no doubt that investigations still need to be done and people held to account, particularly regarding the cronyism imo. 

And I am not trying to paint this as a success story, it isn't! There's no winners here. And tbh these figures and this Government have been bailed out bigtime by the vaccine rollout. 

But regardless, I'd be lying if I didn't say it sticks in the throat having endured months of people screaming at me about how we were the worst nation in the World, and why was every other Country dealing with this issue so well whilst we were the odd one out suffering, and any sensible alternative views were ignored or shouted down. And by "people" I most definitely mean the media of all forms who couldn't wait to spread their headlines/bulletins of gloom to an already terrified nation. Strangely, those same outlets don't appear to be so fervent in spreading good news during these recent months. 

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Still no sign of any increase in rates due to varients, Kent, SA or Indian.

I am increasingly of the opinion the varients won't make much of an impact to vaccinated people. Seems like the immunity from the vaccine is sufficient to suppress the spread.

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Unbelievable live pictures from Delhi on Sky news. Reporting from outside the hospital, it showed victims lieing on the ground severely ill, waiting maybe 5 or 6 hours hoping for a bed. Many of those people were dieing before they got seen. 
 

Behind the reporter were people unable to stand being brought in by taxi or any available transport. At the same time, again live on TV, 3 covered, but dead bodies were being wheeled out.

 

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1 hour ago, den said:

Unbelievable live pictures from Delhi on Sky news. Reporting from outside the hospital, it showed victims lieing on the ground severely ill, waiting maybe 5 or 6 hours hoping for a bed. Many of those people were dieing before they got seen. 
 

Behind the reporter were people unable to stand being brought in by taxi or any available transport. At the same time, again live on TV, 3 covered, but dead bodies were being wheeled out.

 

Its awful den.

The troubles in India are going to hit our supply chain for the vaccine, if posters are eligible, get booked in.

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2 hours ago, Gav said:

Its awful den.

The troubles in India are going to hit our supply chain for the vaccine, if posters are eligible, get booked in.

Got my first one booked in for Sunday now I'm in the eligible age group.

Don't forget folks, even if you've not had a letter, all over 45s are now eligible & you can book in online.

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21 hours ago, den said:

Unbelievable live pictures from Delhi on Sky news. Reporting from outside the hospital, it showed victims lieing on the ground severely ill, waiting maybe 5 or 6 hours hoping for a bed. Many of those people were dieing before they got seen. 
 

Behind the reporter were people unable to stand being brought in by taxi or any available transport. At the same time, again live on TV, 3 covered, but dead bodies were being wheeled out.

 

When I saw the images of full grounds during the recent test match series I thought “ The Indians aren’t taking this seriously “.

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Ok, so I had my vaccine at around half 2 this afternoon. Got given the Moderna one at the vaccine centre in St John's in Preston.

All went without fuss, well organised etc. However, my arm now feels like a dead weight & like someone has smothered it in deep heat! Can't wait til tomorrow! 🥺😆

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Our 30-40yr olds don’t need the vaccine right now, send the stock to India for goodness sake, they’re not even at the peak yet, it’s heartbreaking the numbers dying. 
 

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1 hour ago, Gav said:

Our 30-40yr olds don’t need the vaccine right now, send the stock to India for goodness sake, they’re not even at the peak yet, it’s heartbreaking the numbers dying. 
 

Makes you wonder if football will be on the venkys radar at all with the way it is there.....free pass for mogadon I tell.you.  they will sign anything of within reason.

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12 hours ago, Gav said:

Our 30-40yr olds don’t need the vaccine right now, send the stock to India for goodness sake, they’re not even at the peak yet, it’s heartbreaking the numbers dying. 
 

You're right that now we should be diverting vaccines from places like the UK to the developing world - we really have to get the most vulnerable vaccinated right across the world asap to cut down the risk of really dangerous variants developing which have the possibility of putting everyone back to the start.

But there's no point in sending them to India, which has more capacity to produce vaccines than anywhere else. that's not what they need - right now they need oxygen, medicines and hospital capacity and they are all more difficult to just fly out.

In the meantime if you're 44 you can now book a vaccination.

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1 hour ago, only2garners said:

You're right that now we should be diverting vaccines from places like the UK to the developing world - we really have to get the most vulnerable vaccinated right across the world asap to cut down the risk of really dangerous variants developing which have the possibility of putting everyone back to the start.

But there's no point in sending them to India, which has more capacity to produce vaccines than anywhere else. that's not what they need - right now they need oxygen, medicines and hospital capacity and they are all more difficult to just fly out.

In the meantime if you're 44 you can now book a vaccination.

Indias vaccine production has been decimated by the latest wave o2g - We are going to feel that impact shortly, hence why we need to help provide vaccines along with all the vital equipment you suggest above. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Gav said:

Indias vaccine production has been decimated by the latest wave o2g - We are going to feel that impact shortly, hence why we need to help provide vaccines along with all the vital equipment you suggest above. 

 

Maybe it has been temporarily but it is still better to get any spare vaccines we have out elsewhere where virtually no vaccinations have been done to date. What India needs now immediately is any help we can give them to cope with the sick. Their vaccine production will come back soon enough but vaccinating those in the queues outside the hospitals won't help.

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1 hour ago, Gav said:

Indias vaccine production has been decimated by the latest wave o2g - We are going to feel that impact shortly, hence why we need to help provide vaccines along with all the vital equipment you suggest above. 

 

You vaccinated people who have Covid-19 4 weeks prior to getting a vaccine I believe 

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