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False dichotomy alert. I don't quite see how the two are related. I mean it's not an either or is it? Given the furlough and mortgage schemes (both excellent btw) are already in place before Cumm

Have spent a couple of days thinking what to write on here as I am utterly bewildered as to what this so called government is up to regarding schools. Firstly, before Christmas my school had seve

as you know i dont post on here anymore but i will this once just to wish everyone the best and hope everyone stays safe and comes thru at the other side  of this sad mess.  i would also like to

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35 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

 

Credit where credits due, Johnson calling for the world to be vaccinated by end 2022 is just fantastic.

This will put the conversation on G7 timetable next week and hopefully, between them, they’ll come up with a plan to ensure this happens. 

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Just had to hide a load of posts, can we get the Corona virus thread back to talking about that and not people’s jobs please?

This post doesn’t require any quoting, just compliance. 
Thanks:

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The Delta variant is continuing to spread across England, data suggests, with a growing area of the north west among locations affected by the virus.

The Delta variant, also known as B.1.617.2, was first identified in India but is now driving a rise in Covid cases in parts of the UK. On Friday the UK reported 6,238 daily Covid cases, the highest figure since March, while hospitalisations have also begun to rise.

The Delta variant is believed to be both more transmissible than the Alpha variant, B.1.1.7 – first detected in Kent – and somewhat more resistant to Covid vaccines, particularly after just one dose. Early data from Public Health England has also suggested it may also be linked to a greater risk of hospitalisation.

Newly released data from the Wellcome Sanger Institute, which tracks the variants detected in Covid-positive samples through genome sequencing – excluding cases linked to travel – not only confirms the Delta variant dominates in large parts of England, but it suggests cases are growing, particularly in areas neighbouring early hotspots.

According to the Sanger data, in the two weeks to 24 April none of the Covid-positive samples in Chorley or Manchester were found to contain the Delta variant, with 1 instance detected in Stockport and 43 in Bolton over that period.

But in the two weeks to 22 May the situation had changed: 814.50 Covid-positive samples per week were found to contain the Delta variant in Bolton, compared with 28 in nearby Chorley, 104.5 in Manchester and 18 in Stockport.

In the two weeks to 29 May the situation further evolved, with 837 Covid-positive samples per week containing the Delta variant in Bolton, compared with 41 in Chorley, 246.5 in Manchester and 85.5 in Stockport.

Prof Rowland Kao of the University of Edinburgh, who is also a Spi-M member said it was likely many of the Delta infections were seeded before any specific measures were put into place.

I would note that, even if they had managed to catch it before it has spread beyond the previous core areas, its very hard indeed to stop it from spreading unless you completely lock off travel between locations – especially with the knowledge that its potentially so much more transmissible. All eyes will be on the hospitalisations as those new rises take hold, ICU occupancy and death rates. But the current data would reinforce the importance of caution right now.

Dr Jeffrey Barrett, the director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, told the Guardian:

I think we are past the point at which local measures can contain the Delta variant to just some areas in the country. That isn’t to say the intense public health response didn’t help – early hotspots like Bolton look like cases are declining now. It’s probably not feasible to deploy those measures [such as surge testing] at a national level, so it’s now a race to get two doses of vaccine into as many people as possible as fast as possible.

(1) Coronavirus live news: Indian PM Modi announces free jabs for all over-18s; Norway to shorten vaccine interval | World news | The Guardian

 

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I had a meeting today where a colleague told us that his niece, 43yrs old, no underlying health conditions, died last week from Covid 19.

Stunned silence.....

This isn’t over, don’t let your guard down, stay vigilant. 

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44 minutes ago, Gav said:

I had a meeting today where a colleague told us that his niece, 43yrs old, no underlying health conditions, died last week from Covid 19.

Stunned silence.....

This isn’t over, don’t let your guard down, stay vigilant. 

Do you know if she had been vaccinated?

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33 minutes ago, J*B said:

Do you know if she had been vaccinated?

Didn’t feel it was right to ask, same chap lost his wife last summer, not Covid related, 3 kids, poor guy. 

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Posted (edited)

The lab leak theory is really becoming mainstream. Just shows the media manipulation when it was fairly obvious this was a realistic scenario at the start. I suppose when Trump says something,  the media's (including social) reaction is to immediately go against it. Very ,very dangerous times we live in. 

I wonder do some still think the Chinese government are poor ,innocent and ignorant bystanders in all of this. Probably 

Edited by Bigdoggsteel
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Posted (edited)

Early signs that Blackburn like Bolton may be topping out. Only 35 infections recorded yesterday.

It may be the pattern is a quick rise followed by a drop off. Seen in Bolton, Bedford, Leicester etc.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn with Darwen

That said - I can't really see any sensible decision on 14th June but to push back by at least 2 weeks, with options of further push backs. Need more data on both cases and how they convert to Hosptialisations.

Edited by joey_big_nose
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7 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

The lab leak theory is really becoming mainstream. Just shows the media manipulation when it was fairly obvious this was a realistic scenario at the start. I suppose when Trump says something,  the media's (including social) reaction is to immediately go against it. Very ,very dangerous times we live in. 

I wonder do some still think the Chinese government are poor ,innocent and ignorant bystanders in all of this. Probably 

Trouble is that theories need more evidence than supposition.

The evidence has so far been weighted towards a natural viral evolution, hence why consensus has moved that way. Until evidence of lab interference is confirmed by multiple studies I'm still going with the evolution side for now.

A theory 'becoming mainstream' is in itself meaningless. What's popular isn't always right, but what's right isn't always popular etc.

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1 hour ago, Mike E said:

Trouble is that theories need more evidence than supposition.

The evidence has so far been weighted towards a natural viral evolution, hence why consensus has moved that way. Until evidence of lab interference is confirmed by multiple studies I'm still going with the evolution side for now.

A theory 'becoming mainstream' is in itself meaningless. What's popular isn't always right, but what's right isn't always popular etc.

There has been a supression of information. Big tech were removing content even discussing it. The mainstream media over here has been shying away from the issue. It will be interesting to see if there is an increased flow of info now that it's suddenly ok to discuss it rationally 

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Posted (edited)

You’d think the government had learnt lessons over the past 18 months and I think in some cases they have, but.....

Local teams wanted to push out press releases last week to warn the public in Northern towns and cities that the delta variant was running wild, please be vigilant and follow the rules.

Hancocks team argued that they must not trump the secretary of states announcement scheduled for Monday in parliament, bollox to the infection and danger to the public over the sunny weekend,  Matt needs to talk about surge testing etc first......

Local teams pushed back and did release a statement, but this lot will never learn, they’ve learnt nothing, it’s all about saving face, often at that cost of many peoples lives....

Edited by Gav
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1 hour ago, Gav said:

You’d think the government had learnt lessons over the past 18 months and I think in some cases they have, but.....

 

Talking of not learning lessons, Dido Harding is applying for the Head of NHS job! God help us!

The Toryification of everything continues.

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10 hours ago, 47er said:

Talking of not learning lessons, Dido Harding is applying for the Head of NHS job! God help us!

The Toryification of everything continues.

Well after the massive success story “ track and trace “ has been is it any wonder.

My step son’s fiancée flew over from America last Tuesday. They’re getting married over here in July. Last Tuesday morning at 8.00 am my wife got a phone call. The “ track and trace “ people were near by and they were asking to make face to face contact with his fiancée. My wife said - “ Well she’s in mid air at the moment, her plane doesn’t land at Manchester until 11.00am.

” Track and trace “ man replied - “ Nobody told us that !”

That’s inspite of her filling out all the necessary documents giving her time of arrival.

She struck lucky with the weather for her 10 day quarantine, at least she can sit out side.

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10 hours ago, 47er said:

Dido Harding is applying for the Head of NHS job!

I wonder what the application process looks like for her in comparison to other candidates? Either way I'm sure she will go through a fair and transparent recruitment process that will take into account her skills and experience....

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Looking at the slow moving nature of the info, I can't really see any likelihood remove the big remaining restrictions (masks, night clubs, festivals, unlimited indoor gatherings) for at least another month. Maybe outdoor weddings will get a larger allocation of people. It's going to take that amount of time for the data to get more solid on hosptialisations which will drive everything.

If anyone's got anything planned I would start looking into plan B if you haven't already.

As far as I can see there are 2  scenarios that's seem most likely

1) the drop off seen in Bolton, Bedford, Leicester (Zoe also forecasts Blackburn to drop off soon) is maintained and replicated generally - opens up possibility of removal of restrictions but that will need to be proved out over the next 4 weeks as the Delta varient spreads. I can't see how they can just be confident to open on those few data points 

2) cases do continue to rise and we are locked in current situation till around mid July when schools finish and vaccinations up to 75% double dose. Then the fundamentals have shifted a bit and maybe opening completely is possible.

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I think a 2 week delay would be more sensible and reassess then. At that point if hospitalisations are still bobbling around as they are now I cant see much justification for not lifting restrictions. 

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2 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

I think a 2 week delay would be more sensible and reassess then. At that point if hospitalisations are still bobbling around as they are now I cant see much justification for not lifting restrictions. 

Maybe, but I think in 2 weeks we will only be seeing it really taking off in London and Birmingham, and will need to wait another 2 weeks for hosptialisations... Just a gut feel based on what I see. It's such a big move to unlock everything I just can't see it happening without a lot more data.

Im sure they will announce 2 or 3 weeks on 14th with a review at some point on extension.

 

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19 hours ago, 47er said:

Talking of not learning lessons, Dido Harding is applying for the Head of NHS job! God help us!

The Toryification of everything continues.

God help us indeed 47er, disgraceful if that happens.

She didn’t see the Autumn wave of Covid coming for goodness sake.....

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Call me kill you but seeing 20,000 cricket fans without masks packed into Edgbaston doesn't look healthy. All attending needed to show a self administered negative lateral flow test.

Maybe living in Blackburn's getting me down.

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7 minutes ago, Cherry Blue said:

Call me kill you but seeing 20,000 cricket fans without masks packed into Edgbaston doesn't look healthy. All attending needed to show a self administered negative lateral flow test.

Maybe living in Blackburn's getting me down.

Its pilot test event. 

It's time we start unlocking our country and economy now and get back to normality. 

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1 hour ago, chaddyrovers said:

Its pilot test event. 

It's time we start unlocking our country and economy now and get back to normality. 

AGREED

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48 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Every other country is just being so mean 

 

 

 

Not mean just jealous of the continuing phenomenon that is The People's Republic of China which at just 72 years young continues to go from strength to strength.

Also I think you've posted this in the wrong thread.

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