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33 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

I bet Jason Lowe had a higher percentage pass rate than many, but he wasnt a good passer. Mathematical proof on its own, not quite so much.

That’s why stats like Forward Passes P90, Forward Pass % Accuracy, Passes To Final 3rd p90, Passes To Final 3rd % Accuracy and Passes To Penalty Area P90 exist.

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Honestly I'm at a point where I just can't get excited about new signings as long as Mowbray is in charge. Even if the signee appears impressive I already know his impact will be neutered by Mowbray's

Hi all. Would like to thank anyone and everyone who has given my work a read over the last few days. As you can probably tell it took a very long time to do and a lot of late nights around my full tim

Fast forwards 12 months.... 'We lost the quality of Holtby and the goals of Armstrong last summer along with the regular right back and the experience of Johnson.  It's a sad day for the club but

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14 hours ago, chaddyrovers said:

Do you not think we would have decent budget to improve the team overall and good replacement for Armstrong if we sold him? 

I do understand your point about improve team and getting more goals from our wide players and midfield. 

How much would Peterborough sell him for? 

Not a clue, just scored two in the first nine minutes. 

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7 hours ago, JoeH said:

It's not rubbish. Clubs do almost all of their initial work on computers. Do you know how many opposition & recruitment analysts we have at Rovers?

Do you know how many we have? Do you have names? Do you know how many scouts we have and who they are? 

 

From the Rovers official website

Stuart Harvey who is Head of Club Talent Identification & Player Analysis   

Stewart Heppinstall who is Head of Performance Analysis

Ben Smith Who is First Team Performance Analyst

Rachel Hindle Who is First Team Performance Analyst

6 hours ago, JoeH said:

To add on to my proposal that we try and get goals out of Gallagher, there's a clinical striker who'd be great alongside him in Jordan Rhodes available on a free. Find a few crossing wingers and try and mould Gally into the aerial partner for JR. Could work as a great plan B or even a Plan A.

I agree on the Gallagher part. Not sure on Rhodes tbh

6 hours ago, Mattyblue said:

Using data? No problem. However, we do have a problem when the manager goes over the heads of the set up to bring in the likes of Ayala and Pears from Boro on lengthy deals.

One saving grace is this nepotism mat be the thing that actually sees him on his bike...

I would like to know why Mowbray wanted to sign Ayala and why the club allow him to sign him based on his fitness and injury record? 

Also did the Club scouting, recruitment and data analysis department recommend signing Pears or Ayala or Douglas? or did they recommend other signings and who was they? 

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2 hours ago, roversfan99 said:

And @Hoochie Bloochie Mama again I would suggest that as I mentioned, that makes sense in that the data may help narrow down their shortlist to players who can fit their style of play. So it is a time efficient way of narrowing down shortlists of targets. I dont think that data is useless, far from it. But I also think that much of it is unavoidably flawed, has to be taken with a pinch of salt and only as a tool rather than instead of watching players, and I think there has been a sudden surge of people not involved with football clubs using it as factual proof when in fact due to its flaws it is not objective in proving opinions.

You said you shouldn't make key football/transfer decisions based on data. I linked an article saying that at Barnsley that's exactly what they do. In your response above you've totally ignored that.

You're just repeating the same point that in your opinion it can only be used as a tool. Nobody is saying players shouldn't be watched, but data dictates the players they sign, it isn't merely a 'tool' to improve time efficiency and whittle down those available!

And your last sentence is completely inaccurate. Data is absolutely objective in proving opinions, that's it's main selling point. It removes subjectivity. If Barnsley want a bloke who can press for 90 mins they look at the data. They don't ask the scout whose opinion may in some way be unconsciously biased, or just plain wrong. The scout is just the tool, the data is absolute and very, very specifically targeted. 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

You said you shouldn't make key football/transfer decisions based on data. I linked an article saying that at Barnsley that's exactly what they do. In your response above you've totally ignored that.

You're just repeating the same point that in your opinion it can only be used as a tool. Nobody is saying players shouldn't be watched, but data dictates the players they sign, it isn't merely a 'tool' to improve time efficiency and whittle down those available!

And your last sentence is completely inaccurate. Data is absolutely objective in proving opinions, that's it's main selling point. It removes subjectivity. If Barnsley want a bloke who can press for 90 mins they look at the data. They don't ask the scout whose opinion may in some way be unconsciously biased, or just plain wrong. The scout is just the tool, the data is absolute and very, very specifically targeted. 

 

 

 

Obviously the specifics are objective but it depends on the interpretation. My points are more about discussions about players rather than speculating how clubs may use data anyway, we dont know for sure how reliant clubs are on data, whether its used to whittle down players to a shortlist that fit the parameters needed, for example Barnsley need strikers who can press so maybe they whittle down a shortlist based on strikers with particularly high distance covered per game, then watch those 3 or 4 strikers and pick from there. In which case, the data whilst not fool proof does massively help to make a decision that then comes down to opinion again.

I dont think for example that anyone could say that one player is better than another based solely on data. Just take a singular stat, whether it is number of crosses, cross success rate, "progressive" runs, whatever, my point is that in isolation it doesnt prove anything. If you was to say that player x has a better cross percentage or puts in more crosses per game, that would be objectively true, but means little. If you was to say that player x is better than player y proved by his cross percentage and number of crosses, that would then be subjective, the stats would only support that opinion to an extent.

An example is the ongoing debate as to who is a better right back, Rankin Costello or Nyambe. The former seems to come out on top on most "metrics" yet some aspects are more difficult to prove or indeed disprove via data. For example, I think Nyambe positionally and one on one defensively is far better at right back, and also I do feel to collaborate with the data that he is a much poorer crosser but he is a totally different player, he has the pace and power to get to the byline where it may require a simple pull back rather than an inch perfect cross, so whilst he is a poorer crosser in my opinion, I dont feel like he is less of an attacking threat.

Data can also be used to window dress and supposedly prove an already held opinion, so thats when its objectiveness falls down too.

I also have an issue with certain stats and how impossible they are to be totally reliable, xG being a perfect example.

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1 minute ago, roversfan99 said:

My points are more about discussions about players rather than speculating how clubs may use data anyway, we dont know for sure how reliant clubs are on data,

Which was the point of linking you the article. Clubs like Barnsley are clearly highly reliant on data. Again, you just ignore the facts that are presented to you. 

 

3 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

I dont think for example that anyone could say that one player is better than another based solely on data. 

Again, the article is telling you something different. Did you read it?

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5 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

Which was the point of linking you the article. Clubs like Barnsley are clearly highly reliant on data. Again, you just ignore the facts that are presented to you. 

 

Again, the article is telling you something different. Did you read it?

I did, but it doesnt specify from what I can see how much if any reliance is placed on watching the players that the data initially has flagged up, I found the following quote interesting and in regards to using data, which I have never totally dismissed, it seems a sensible mantra:

"data is the first thing that wipes out the noise for us.”

Like I said though, I was talking less about the usage within clubs and more on places like here purely as a discussion topic. I stand by the second quote you have quoted from me, and that has nothing to do with the article. I explained why in the rest of that second paragraph in my last post. If you was to marry my statement up with Barnsley and that article, even then, no club can guarantee perfect recruitment with or without data and there is an element of subjectivity in who they choose.

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19 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

I did, but it doesnt specify from what I can see how much if any reliance is placed on watching the players that the data initially has flagged up,

You've shifted your position again, Very tiresome. What you actually said was "we dont know for sure how reliant clubs are on data".

The data is everything to Barnsley . That's the point. From the article:-

“If we look at a player who is extremely talented, and his goals and assists are through the roof but he is not able to sustain an element of pressing and defending high up the field for 90 minutes, that is a red flag for us,”

Watching the player won't change the data. Do you understand?

26 minutes ago, roversfan99 said:

I stand by the second quote you have quoted from me, and that has nothing to do with the article.

But Barnsley are saying one player is better for them based solely on the data...because they are basing it on very specific data. 

Anyway, I'm done. It's like arguing with Chaddy!

 

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4 minutes ago, Hoochie Bloochie Mama said:

You've shifted your position again, Very tiresome. What you actually said was "we dont know for sure how reliant clubs are on data".

The data is everything to Barnsley . That's the point. From the article:-

“If we look at a player who is extremely talented, and his goals and assists are through the roof but he is not able to sustain an element of pressing and defending high up the field for 90 minutes, that is a red flag for us,”

Watching the player won't change the data. Do you understand?

But Barnsley are saying one player is better for them based solely on the data...because they are basing it on very specific data. 

Anyway, I'm done. It's like arguing with Chaddy!

 

By that, I appreciate the reliance on data, im saying that I dont know and havent ascertained from the article whether the players they eventually sign are done so with or without being watched in full prior. If that is the case, the data would still be key in highlighting that player, where it becomes dangerous is if a signing is made solely on data without seeing the person in full. The difference between clubs and people doing it from home as a hobby is that the latter might then give opinions as fact on who they think we should sign in the absence of seeing that player play. Clubs will have the time and people to be able to scout the players that top the specific metrics that they are looking for, in your case, Barnsley want attackers that will get through a lot of physical mileage.

Barnsleys specific use of and reliance upon data is miles away from my initial point regarding my own personal opinion on its limitations and how whilst individual aspects of it are obviously true, its only objective to a certain point. But anyway, as you say, no point arguing.

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I don't think there's anyone out there who's claiming clubs should be (or are) using data and data alone in their opposition, performance and recruitment analysis. Of course opinion, video and scouting are still relevant. 

I think almost all data, when used in the right way, can be extremely helpful.

On the Ryan Nyambe point you make @roversfan99 about one on one defending and positioning, I think there's plenty of data out there that would back up your point. 

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Someone mentioned Jonson Clarke Harris of Peterborough earlier in the thread. I like him, think he's capable of a step up at least one level but, for me, not as good as his strike partner Smodicz. He's a better all round player for me but weighs in with his fair share of goals too.

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On 25/03/2021 at 09:26, Sparks Rover said:

For someone slagging league 1 players off not 6 months ago you've proper done a 180 haven't you mate.....? 🙄

It's cos we've been linked with a league one player so quickly changes opinion.

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On 26/03/2021 at 17:20, JoeH said:

1. How do you objectify a chance? Well that's what an xG model is. It takes into account all the variables such as shot type, pass quality, position of defenders, distance from goal, goalkeeper position, placement of shot etc etc etc.. 

2. It certainly does in most models

3. Yes it shows you the evidence as to how much further forward a team perhaps looked to play once behind. If you look at the xG diagrams over 90 minutes for your upcoming oppositions last five games and see that they always spike once trailing, you'd perhaps tailor your approach to the next game with that knowledge in mind.


If a team has a high xG value but a low G value you can determine whether they are wasting big chances, or perhaps often looking to shoot from range. I think personally you can see when Rovers have played well when you look at our xG. The win over Millwall, which is one of our most convincing wins since the early push against Wycombe/Derby etc.. had us with an xG value right around the 2-2.5 mark, where we got 2 goals. We've scraped wins over sides like Rotherham and our xG was lower than our actual G value, which shows we didn't actually play too well at all.

It's not the defining data point, we could survive without it but I think it tells us a lot of information that would otherwise take a long time to decipher manually.

Mate was a data analyst for a big club. Did a master's in sports analysis and said XG is a load of absolute rubbish and pointless.

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1 hour ago, RoversClitheroe said:

It's cos we've been linked with a league one player so quickly changes opinion.

Wrong again as per usual.

It was the player he wanted us to sign who I didnt want. 

I suggested us signing Crewe Left Back Pickering last summer. Clearly you missed that suggestion again!

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1 hour ago, chaddyrovers said:

Wrong again as per usual.

It was the player he wanted us to sign who I didnt want. 

I suggested us signing Crewe Left Back Pickering last summer. Clearly you missed that suggestion again!

yeah cos you suggest about 300 players every summer lol. Even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut

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2 hours ago, tomphil said:

So where's it going wrong at Ewood then, the culture and feel or the data ?

How much of those do you need to see people like Holtby and Ayala are unlikely to feature often enough.  Or that Evans has been on a joyride for years ?

Does the manager change his mind every game and several times per game or are stat sheets telling him he should do that ?  Are the recruitment dept and stats depts pulling in different directions than the manager and what we see is a result of this ?

The balance isn't right at this club on or off the pitch and we don't need a team of number crunchers to confirm that.

True. For me I’d say the youth team recruitment shows that we have the right elements to make it work. Our 23’s continuously find gems. Anyone’s guess as to why it doesn’t work at first team level, but I think we need a new manager, let’s see if that changes anything hopefully

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6 hours ago, JoeH said:

True. For me I’d say the youth team recruitment shows that we have the right elements to make it work. Our 23’s continuously find gems. Anyone’s guess as to why it doesn’t work at first team level, but I think we need a new manager, let’s see if that changes anything hopefully

Gems? Valuable assets.  Name one?

We do well in that league because the top teams kids are all on loan playing league football.  I could play in a 23s game...piss poor.  Bring back the old ressies. 

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3 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

Gems? Valuable assets.  Name one?

We do well in that league because the top teams kids are all on loan playing league football.  I could play in a 23s game...piss poor.  Bring back the old ressies. 

Tyrhys Dolan - Preston - Free
Lewis Travis - Liverpool - Free
Joe Rankin-Costello - Man Utd - Free

All Three now first teamers. Quality recruitment.

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4 minutes ago, JoeH said:

Tyrhys Dolan - Preston - Free
Lewis Travis - Liverpool - Free
Joe Rankin-Costello - Man Utd - Free

All Three now first teamers. Quality recruitment.

All are worthless on the market, so not gems.  Tyrhys wasn't difficult to do and the jury is well and truly still out. In fact, what does it say about the rest of the 23s if he comes in as an U19 and goes straight in.....they must all be bang average.

Travis looks a shadow and the other one is unproven aswell.

Hardly gems and hardly through our academy.....

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13 minutes ago, Wovers said:

probably has something to do with you having a ‘deal’ with the club. Is that fella on the books with the name Harvey a family member of yours?

Poor do. Choose your words very carefully.

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