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Mike E

Brexit Thread

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Listening to the lunchtime news today it's becoming apparent that "Project Fear" was in fact Project Reality, Brexit is not going to be a walk in the park the Brexiteers think and Britain cannot have its cake and eat it.

Compromises will have to be made, the NHS isn't going to get £350m as promised by the Leave camp, there will be no immediate end to immigration or even an Australian style points system, there will no trade deals unless we agree to a free movement within the EU and there will be no "taking back control".

What a nonsensical farce the Leave camp in and outside of government has bestowed upon the electorate. None of the key promises will be delivered and the government as always will agree a fudge that allows it to save face but unlikely to change anything of substance at all.

There is a silver lining however. The Conservative party will be split even further.

Edited by jim mk2
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No, project fear is still just that. No one currently knows (unfortunately including the Government) what form any of this is going to take so its all just rhetoric and fear mongering.

Theresa May has indeed ruled out points based immigration due to the fact it doesn't really work. i.e. it still allows in anyone scoring over the minimum points. I think it was shown that Australia actually have a high level of immigration even though they have points. Another solution needs to be looked at and hopefully all options will be looked at sensibly in time.

The Conservative party will be split even further.

Yet still more cohesive than the Labour party for the foreseeable future.
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No mudslinging and no ridiculous picture-cropping, children.

I am sure China State Television feels duly parentally admonished

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You should know better than to borrow from China state TV :P that being said, if China cropped May out deliberately it makes one think about why.

Whether it's Brexit or not, I don't know.

I'm still of the view that the financial ups and downs that people are discussing are down to the ongoing uncertainty rather than Brexit itself. I feel that once a plan is formulated (a politically tricky task), we'll start to see nerves settle.

We may even have a short-term decline, but I believe (as do many people I know) that once this finally levels out when I'm 40 or so, Britain will be fine.

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I'm still of the view that the financial ups and downs that people are discussing

It's a discussion? I thought it was just jim and Philip posting 2-3 news articles per day until someone snaps. Kind of a pointless, unasked for, brfcc branch of the Guardian.

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You should know better than to borrow from China state TV :P that being said, if China cropped May out deliberately it makes one think about why.

Whether it's Brexit or not, I don't know.

I'm still of the view that the financial ups and downs that people are discussing are down to the ongoing uncertainty rather than Brexit itself. I feel that once a plan is formulated (a politically tricky task), we'll start to see nerves settle.

We may even have a short-term decline, but I believe (as do many people I know) that once this finally levels out when I'm 40 or so, Britain will be fine.

A plan Mike? There is no plan. There can't be a plan. Absolutely no one knows what to do next. It's suck it and see - and hope everything is Ok. Telling people "everything WILL BE fine" means nothing. Within the EU we were fine. The countries finances were good and immigration could have been reduced by cutting numbers of non EU immigrants.

At the best, we might get close to that situation again. At worst, we'll all be a lot worse off IMO. Why people wanted to gamble that I still don't know.

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You know why, Den. To the Brexiteers, it's all about "taking control" - particularly immigration. Never mind that GDP will be hit and the country will be poorer, as long as the Poles are stopped at Calais the little Englanders will be happy. And that's not mudslinging - it's an observation.

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You know why, Den. To the Brexiteers, it's all about "taking control" - particularly immigration. Never mind that GDP will be hit and the country will be poorer, as long as the Poles are stopped at Calais the little Englanders will be happy. And that's not mudslinging - it's an observation.

But jim, your persistent need to attach a negative label to groups of people you don't know IS mudslinging.

Nowhere near as many Brexit voters are xenophobic as you think. For a start the immigration argument doesn't even work because most illegal immigration (the most concerning) is of nationals from outside the EU.

Most people I've spoken to about it (whether leave or remain voters) agree that the only logical reason to Leave would be economical, in that we can trade to suit our needs instead of being forced to trade with deals that must benefit more than 25 other countries. So everything is the same in all but name, we pay a little more to the EU overall for the same benefits, but we gain trade elsewhere. Even some remain voters have argued that narrative to me, but voted remain because of a wide variety of reasons (some simply because they liked Cameron more than Farage - rather like a choice between watching Citizen Khan or the Crazy Frog).

The other 3 were racists, with whom I no longer converse.

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Nowhere near as many Brexit voters are xenophobic as you think. For a start the immigration argument doesn't even work because most illegal immigration (the most concerning) is of nationals from outside the EU.

Immigration was the single biggest reason for people voting Leave according to most stats on it, closely followed by sovereignty and then a bit of a gap to other reasons.

Personally I've been appalled by the resurgence of this "fact" that concern about immigration = racism (but just dressed up with the word xenophobia now instead). It's like the worst excesses of politically correct opinion-silencing have come roaring back onto the main political stage. It's pretty dark and sinister, not to mention juvenile if you ask me. Don't get your own way, well play the race card. P.C. fascism has returned.

I voted Leave because of immigration. Because I think overpopulation of a country causes a vast multitude of problems. Because integration doesn't work with fast-paced, large scale immigration. And because the huge imbalance in immigrant demographics (towards males) will cause it's own intrinsic, natural problem in any society.

I've been shedding friends as quickly as you since Brexit by the sounds of it, basically everyone with the left-wing stupidity to accuse me of xenophobia/racism simply on the basis of the above. It's been depressingly more than I thought it would be, the P.C. brainwashers have been busy in the background this last 10 years or so.

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You know why, Den. To the Brexiteers, it's all about "taking control" - particularly immigration. Never mind that GDP will be hit and the country will be poorer, as long as the Poles are stopped at Calais the little Englanders will be happy. And that's not mudslinging - it's an observation.

Is there any danger of you posting without digs or insults at people you disagree with? Just once?
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The more I see of the repercussions of Brexit, the more I am convinced it won't happen.

The Japanese might only employ 140,000 directly in the UK but the 15 page memo their Government wrote on Brexit simply expresses what every private sector and non-British employer and business is considering.

The flood of enquiries for those looking to at least cover their risks on Brexit by moving business and assets outside the UK is steadily becoming a torrent.

In the final analysis, the vote was 48.1 to 51.9- the 48.1 is not going away but the 51.9 is soft and fractured.

51.9% will not survive if, we have a soft exit and remain in the single market as the hard Brexiters will bring down the Government

51.9% will not survive if, we have a hard exit and leave the single market and trigger the inevitable mass unemployment

51.9% will not survive if, people from Europe have to pay £110 send in their passport and wait six weeks to get a visa to visit the UK

51.9% will not survive if, Britons find their passports are pretty useless and have to apply for visas to visit places where they don't at present

51.9% will not survive if, the EU and the rest of the world treats the UK with such disdain that we get the message that the UK outside of the EU doesn't add up to very much.

Lord Ashcroft's latest polling shows that more Britons want to control migration than remain in the single market and that the public actually do not understand or believe that there is a trade off between the two.

There are three other myths implicit in the Brexit vote.

1. There is somehow a method for pre existing non British EU citizens in the UK to be treated differently from future arrivals on any practical basis

2. That future restrictions on EU citizens in the UK will not be reciprocately applied to British citizens also

3. That the British market for other European nations is so important that we will be given a free pass on trade

The reality is the pound's devaluation by 10%+ is a dry run for seeing how British consumers react to the future imposition of tariffs. My guess is that the UK consumer will carry on buying German cars regardless which means that the Germans will be indifferent if another 10% import tax gets put on top as well.

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Really? You read the Daily Mail?

Yes - I read all the newspapers. Just because you don't agree with a viewpoint doesn't mean you shouldn't read it. It's also called "knowing your enemy". Perhaps you'd learn something if you read views opposite to your own?

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Yes - I read all the newspapers. Just because you don't agree with a viewpoint doesn't mean you shouldn't read it. It's also called "knowing your enemy". Perhaps you'd learn something if you read views opposite to your own?

So, I guess that would be a no re posting without insults or digs, then?

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Lord Ashcroft's latest polling shows that more Britons want to control migration than remain in the single market and that the public actually do not understand or believe that there is a trade off between the two.

The reality is the pound's devaluation by 10%+ is a dry run for seeing how British consumers react to the future imposition of tariffs. My guess is that the UK consumer will carry on buying German cars regardless which means that the Germans will be indifferent if another 10% import tax gets put on top as well.

The public by and large never understood the wider economic arguments because they weren't interested. They blamed Brussels for the rise in immigration and saw the vote as their chance to hit back at the Poles who they saw as taking their jobs or keeping their wages down or blocking the waiting list at the doctors' surgery

A weak currency shows markets have given their verdict on Britain's status in the world. It's given a short term boost to exports and tourism but will cause inflation to rise by making imported goods and foods more expensive to buy - hitting everyone.

We've chose to leave the EU club. Why do the Brexiteers think we can still be a part of that club on the same favourable terms? It doesn't make sense - and Barnier will make sure we suffer when the negotiations on Brexit begin.

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Yes - I read all the newspapers. Just because you don't agree with a viewpoint doesn't mean you shouldn't read it. It's also called "knowing your enemy". Perhaps you'd learn something if you read views opposite to your own?

You just can't help yourself can you?
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Just so you're all aware, from the outside looking in this is one of the best threads on the forum and you're all a credit to yourselves. Terrific reading.

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No, project fear is still just that. No one currently knows (unfortunately including the Government) what form any of this is going to take so its all just rhetoric and fear mongering. Theresa May has indeed ruled out points based immigration due to the fact it doesn't really work. i.e. it still allows in anyone scoring over the minimum points. I think it was shown that Australia actually have a high level of immigration even though they have points. Another solution needs to be looked at and hopefully all options will be looked at sensibly in time.

The fact that the government still doesn't know what's going to happen, is surely more proof that the in/out referendum had little to do with giving the electorate their say - and more to do with Cameron appeasing his his own right wingers. Mays position on immigration at the moment is that she believes we will have "some" control? We could pay a heavy economical price for "some" control. No one voted for that did they?

Edited by den

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