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Mike E

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Haygrove raspberry and blueberry farm in Ledbury, Herefordshire is moving some of its growing to Yunnan province in China because of uncertainty over migrant labour. “It is one of many,” said Capper. “There are lots of businesses looking at other parts of Europe, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, China. We are disinvesting in British production which is just appalling.

 

See above from the Guardian article.

Presumably, food producers and farmers will follow manufacturing and services and shift production abroad, worsening the country's balance of payments and  throwing more people out of work. Just another example of the "benefits" of Brexit. 

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Why does dave insist on comparing the UK to Australia, like they're somehow similar? Did I miss Australia leaving the eu, and going on to be stronger for it? 

We didn't used to have a problem with farm labour, because we used people from Europe. Now they've left because of brexit and we have control, no bugger wants to do the job they did, and we will suffer economically for it. Doesn't seem too difficult to join the dots up

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15 hours ago, philipl said:

Of course Brexiters knew what they were voting for...

Only after two special sessions to thrash out what they are asking for, the British Cabinet still can't agree what it is 20 months later.

 

Rather more sinister, when considering that Farage is a Russian asset :

Doesn’t it strike everyone else as a bit weird that one extreme group of right-wingers holds more sway over the Government and the media than two Houses of Parliament and the electorate? It’s almost like there’s a bit more to it than most people think...

I’d suggest, in order to achieve that kind of influence you would to be not just rich but have bottomless pockets, you’d need the machinery of a state in terms of intelligence and hybrid operations and also to obtain and manage high level compliance through compromising material.

It strikes me that the ideal way to take over a state would be to compromise a group of ideologically similar people with bad habits, embed them in the government, and use them as sock puppets. But only, of course, with enough obfuscation to drop them and get away with it.

So, should such a situation unfold, hypothetically, I’d be looking beyond what’s findable, like groups or thinktanks. Looking at where the compromise exists, and establishing which state would be capable of harnessing that, tracking back from the method aspects on public display.

Because the key to good hybrid warfare isn’t anything more than information control. Control what people digest and discuss, you own their debate. Control information about them as individuals, their secrets, and you own them. Control both and you’ve got everything.

 

 

Heard this Russia thing, I'm not sure if totally credible or not (totally convinced on the russian twitter bots), however I'm sure a lot of noise was made by Farage and co about the suppressing of low wages due to migration - which I believe to be untrue. I've seen first hand and that people believe that. Had people walk into office within a few days of the vote asking for a payrise (sterling was tanking, so no way was it going to happen).

However this EU directive https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/company-tax/anti-tax-avoidance-package/anti-tax-avoidance-directive_en is probably a big driver in the governments brexit plans. 

Wouldn't it be nice if MPs where not allowed to vote on things they have a stake in, like pro-brexit Al Zahawi who earns £20k a month for a consultancy role in an Iraqi oil business that is based in London, but pays it's taxes in a tax haven. Rees-Mogg allegedly is due a personal windfall of millions if we exit the EU. 

 

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7 hours ago, broadsword said:

Why does dave insist on comparing the UK to Australia, like they're somehow similar? Did I miss Australia leaving the eu, and going on to be stronger for it? 

We didn't used to have a problem with farm labour, because we used people from Europe. Now they've left because of brexit and we have control, no bugger wants to do the job they did, and we will suffer economically for it. Doesn't seem too difficult to join the dots up

I'm not comparing countries, I'm comparing the problem both countries have.

Australia has gone some way to solving it, but it isn't enough. They have given residents of South Pacific Islands access to a special work visa that lets them come and work during the harvest seasons, (in some industries there are multiple harvests during the year)

This has a twofold benefit, it gets previously unemployed people on an Island working, and,

they send money back home to their families thus helping the Islands economy.

Much better than foreign aid, government to government.

As an afterthought, you've got to realise the effect on Australia when the UK joined the Common Market (remember that?). It caused a blip in our economy, and people were worried, but, with the benefit of hindsight, it was probably the best thing that could have happened.

It forced us to go out and find other markets and countries to trade with. That, along with some astute political decisions, pushed our economy along well. We haven't had a recession for 20 odd years or so, despite the ups and downs worldwide.

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I wouldn't pretend to understand Australia's problems, but I'm willing to bet they're not anything to do with walking away from the world's biggest free trading bloc that's right on their doorstep. In tennis, that's known ss an unforced error. 

How can you compare the problems both countries have without comparing the countries? This is just linguistic gymnastics. Clearly, you're comparing  the countries. 

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1 minute ago, broadsword said:

I wouldn't pretend to understand Australia's problems, but I'm willing to bet they're not anything to do with walking away from the world's biggest free trading bloc that's right on their doorstep. In tennis, that's known ss an unforced error. 

How can you compare the problems both countries have without comparing the countries? This is just linguistic gymnastics. Clearly, you're comparing  the countries. 

I'm comparing a particular problem that Paul brought up, got that?

It's a problem that we have in Australia as well (Paul acknowledged that). Our Government has tried to find a solution, no gymnastics involved.

Remember that the UK walked away from it's Commonwealth partners when they were finally accepted into the Common Market (remember that?). There was no financial assistance to those countries that lost out, it was a "sorry, see you later" attitude.

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It's a problem that the UK didn't have before brexit. The Australian government had responded to it by seemingly increasing the freedom of movement of people across its borders. Something the UK could achieve by starting in the eu. 

Thanks for clarifying that you're not comparing the UK with Australia in any way. 

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Must admit I like the term Mogglodytes.

New leader of Sinn Fein said yesterday that Brexit and the Good Friday Agreement are mutually incompatible.

Terrifying.

Today May's Cabinet try to come up with Schroedinger's Border- the Irish border which both exists and doesn't exist. At the very least level of damage, Derry market will be flooded with cheap knocked off vehicle recognition cameras!

 

Edited by philipl

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3 hours ago, philipl said:

Must admit I like the term Mogglodytes.

New leader of Sinn Fein said yesterday that Brexit and the Good Friday Agreement are mutually incompatible.

Terrifying.

Today May's Cabinet try to come up with Schroedinger's Border- the Irish border which both exists and doesn't exist. At the very least level of damage, Derry market will be flooded with cheap knocked off vehicle recognition cameras!

 

The EU paper on the NI problem. Some is aspirational, all outcomes will deliver more cost and delay to the process. Some can be applicable to the sea border between UK mainland and continental Europe. 

IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf

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8 hours ago, dave birch said:

I'm not comparing countries, I'm comparing the problem both countries have.

Australia has gone some way to solving it, but it isn't enough. They have given residents of South Pacific Islands access to a special work visa that lets them come and work during the harvest seasons, (in some industries there are multiple harvests during the year)

This has a twofold benefit, it gets previously unemployed people on an Island working, and,

they send money back home to their families thus helping the Islands economy.

Much better than foreign aid, government to government.

As an afterthought, you've got to realise the effect on Australia when the UK joined the Common Market (remember that?). It caused a blip in our economy, and people were worried, but, with the benefit of hindsight, it was probably the best thing that could have happened.

It forced us to go out and find other markets and countries to trade with. That, along with some astute political decisions, pushed our economy along well. We haven't had a recession for 20 odd years or so, despite the ups and downs worldwide.

Well our governments impact assessments tell us that if we were to go out and agree trade deals with every other EU country, we would still be far worse off. Add to that the multi billion pounds that it’s already cost. On top of that our own government tells us that immigration will go “ up and down”. The truth is we already have all the controls necessary to reduce immigration figures if we wanted to - and people still want to leave. Why?

Edited by den

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On 09/02/2018 at 08:00, philipl said:
Quote

Andrew NeilVerified account @afneil 18h18 hours ago

 
 

 

The comparison is irrelevant bordering on the absurd but, for the record, on the official figures published to date, Greece is not growing faster than UK. It might in 2018/19. But then it has a lot of ground to make up, having lost almost 30% of its gdp.

 

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Yes Greece has had an appalling time but even a Greek Government which has fundamentally failed to do anything in the face of such adversity is now seeing stronger economic growth than about-to-get-worse Brexit Britain.

How much more worse? Let's ask the Government to smuggle some impact assessment out of the "too terrifying to publish" locked room:

image.thumb.png.5919d20ac7747a628f965bce0d80c69f.png

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14 hours ago, philipl said:

Yes Greece has had an appalling time but even a Greek Government which has fundamentally failed to do anything in the face of such adversity is now seeing stronger economic growth than about-to-get-worse Brexit Britain.

 

I can't decide whether you're intentionally trying to mislead people or if you're so far out of your depth you don't know when to give up bluffing?  As the BBC's Andrew Neil succinctly pointed out in the quote, your point is factually incorrect, and it's comparing apples to oranges anyway.  Repeating the lie doesn't change anything... 

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16 hours ago, philipl said:

Yes Greece has had an appalling time but even a Greek Government which has fundamentally failed to do anything in the face of such adversity is now seeing stronger economic growth than about-to-get-worse Brexit Britain.

How much more worse? Let's ask the Government to smuggle some impact assessment out of the "too terrifying to publish" locked room:

 

Greece has been an economic basket case for years so its strong growth is coming from a very low base.  Comparing it to Britain isn't a fair really but it makes a good headline and is certainly embarrassing for the British government.  Of more interest is growth across eurozone which will overtake Britain's and is forecast to continue expanding at faster rate for years. Europe's stock markets and bond market have also left Britain trailling. We're not the "sick man of Europe" yet, but with the housing market in trouble, high street spending down, consumers reining in spending, uncertaintly in manufacturing and services, inflation rising and wage growth weak or stagnant, and the Japanese and others warning of the dangers of a no-deal or hard Brexit, the signs are not good. 

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What does an "8% fall in GDP" really mean?

The UK’s GDP in £2.7tn. 8% of this is £216bn.

Which is more than 20x what the UK pays for membership of the EU.

"Taking back control" will cost every man, woman and child in the UK £3,000.

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3 hours ago, philipl said:

What does an "8% fall in GDP" really mean?

The UK’s GDP in £2.7tn. 8% of this is £216bn.

Which is more than 20x what the UK pays for membership of the EU.

"Taking back control" will cost every man, woman and child in the UK £3,000.

They don't care Phillip. I've found this on Twitter. Most are deluded about immigration, racist (more often or not the ones who start with "I'm not racist but"), all hate facts, and only believe the ones someone once told them rather than provable ones.

There is still very little movement from leave to remain, but a surge from don't know to remain, and more young voters who are largely remain. 

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12 hours ago, philipl said:

What does an "8% fall in GDP" really mean?

The UK’s GDP in £2.7tn. 8% of this is £216bn.

Which is more than 20x what the UK pays for membership of the EU.

"Taking back control" will cost every man, woman and child in the UK £3,000.

So who do we make the cheque out to?    Despite the heightened interest in the economic health of the UK over the last 18 months, it seems remainers like yourself still haven't twigged that treating over-prudent doomsday forecasts as fact is self-defeating over time, as reality diverges from the predictions.  The alternative that you're comparing to will always remain theory, so the only certainty is that no one will feel better or worse off whatever happens.  

Is the big font an attempt to draw attention away from the fact that even one of the more ardent remainers on here just pointed out you're spouting ridiculous propaganda? 

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1 hour ago, Rover-the-Top said:

Is the big font an attempt to draw attention away from the fact that even one of the more ardent remainers on here just pointed out you're spouting ridiculous propaganda? 

Well - You could always show us the Government report that forecasts an increase in GDP post Brexit - There must be one, surely? Or is it that there haven't been any reports apart from the leaked one last week because all forecasts are pointing out that at best GDP will be down 2% for Brexit lite and 8% down for the swivel eyed version of it and May and her cronies are supressing them to prevent the bad news getting out ?

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53 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

Well - You could always show us the Government report that forecasts an increase in GDP post Brexit - There must be one, surely? Or is it that there haven't been any reports apart from the leaked one last week because all forecasts are pointing out that at best GDP will be down 2% for Brexit lite and 8% down for the swivel eyed version of it and May and her cronies are supressing them to prevent the bad news getting out ?

 

Johnson's been extolling the virtues of Brexit this morning, talking about not returning to a British menu of “spam and cabbage” and that the British fondness for taking “cheapo flights to stag parties in ancient cities” will continue.

He also once again brought up successful UK exports of Toblerone chocolate bar display cabinets to Saudi Arabia as evidence of the country’s global trade ambitions beyond the EU.

Yes really.

No mention of real issues such as the Irish border.

With leaders like this what is there to worry about?

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

Well - You could always show us the Government report that forecasts an increase in GDP post Brexit - There must be one, surely?

Why? That's a rather illogical conclusion. It would be an even more pointless exercise if they produced multiple forecasts covering all bases. 

 

But then if you'd have asked me to produce a government report from the time of the referendum showing small but consistent growth for the next 18 months, I wouldn't have been able to do it.  All I'd be able to get was the following, predicting immediate recession and rising unemployment following the vote:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf

With hindsight, we can say it's badly wrong. And therein should lie the lesson about using forecasts as facts.

 

 

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Ah, so their forecasted recession never happened in one report, therefor all reports are wrong.

The recession may not have happened but that is down to the global economic recovery which resulted in the EU economies steam on ahead of the UK. And the UK going from the best performing economy in the G7, pre-Brexit vote to the worst. If this recovery hadn't happened the UK economy would have been pushed into recession.

 

 

Edited by Jimbo
spelling

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Leavers are basically just about a warm wet feeling in the trousers with no sense of reality.

Remainers are fighting a real battle for livelihoods, keeping families together and ability to move where business takes us. Plus fundamental liberties and human rights.

Remainers have very real skin in this game and are vastly more motivated that the romantic la la land leavers.

One of many reasons why remain is going to prevail.

 

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1 hour ago, Rover-the-Top said:

Why? That's a rather illogical conclusion. It would be an even more pointless exercise if they produced multiple forecasts covering all bases. 

 

But then if you'd have asked me to produce a government report from the time of the referendum showing small but consistent growth for the next 18 months, I wouldn't have been able to do it.  All I'd be able to get was the following, predicting immediate recession and rising unemployment following the vote:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf

With hindsight, we can say it's badly wrong. And therein should lie the lesson about using forecasts as facts.

 

 

Detailed assessments have been done by various independent companies. The leave argument is that they are guesswork. Someone needs to explain to me that if they were just guesswork, why they all come to the same conclusion. 

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2 hours ago, jim mk2 said:

 

Johnson's been extolling the virtues of Brexit this morning, talking about not returning to a British menu of “spam and cabbage” and that the British fondness for taking “cheapo flights to stag parties in ancient cities” will continue.

He also once again brought up successful UK exports of Toblerone chocolate bar display cabinets to Saudi Arabia as evidence of the country’s global trade ambitions beyond the EU.

Yes really.

No mention of real issues such as the Irish border.

With leaders like this what is there to worry about?

 

 

 

This was the first speech on “the roadmap to brexit”. It told us nothing and there’s good reason why that is. It’s the same reason why there will be no roadmap to brexit laid down in any of the upcoming speeches. The government don’t have any idea of how to achieve this dream of higher prosperity.  Indeed they know there will be no such thing. They can’t give us detail, because they know detail works against leaving the biggest free trading, frictionless trading block in the world. That can’t be replaced anywhere else and they have been told that and they’ve been told why it works against it.

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