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Had No-Deal been ruled out first, do we think May’s deal might have garnered more support?

Also, am I reading correctly that May voted against herself?

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Can he do that legally. Anything done to halt Brexit has to be 100%legally watertight

 

Sorry I didn't notice we'd gone to the next page. Would have quoted otherwise 

Edited by gumboots

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7 hours ago, Husky said:

Does this mean that those that don't have residency will have to rush to get it before 29th March?

And what exactly will happen to those that don't? Will they be rounded up by the EU Stazi?

 

I'd be more afraid of the UK Stasi---remember Windrush? Its this automatic assumption that UK processes are always superior to the EU's that has helped lead to this shambles.

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51 minutes ago, Mike E said:

Also, am I reading correctly that May voted against herself?

I didn't realise that there were two votes related to no-deal.

The first was to rule out no-deal Brexit at any point in the future - which I think is what May whipped to vote against, but was rebelled by 17, including abstainers. This has a tiny majority of 4.

The second was to rule out no-deal Brexit on 29th March, which I think was a free vote. This had a larger majority of 43.

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11 hours ago, den said:

I wouldn’t assume anything TBH.

Hopefully no deal will be ruled out tonight - well the signs are that it definitely will be. The hard right wing brexitting ERG are obviously fiercely against it, but I think their argument that it weakens our negotiating position has rightly been pushed away. Rightly pushed away because their argument misrepresents their position. They are in reality very comfortable with crashing out. They don’t care about the costs to jobs or the economy. 

Apart from that, no deal will be ruled out because absolutely nobody trusts May any more. I don’t think anyone believes a word she says. Look at her proposal for tonight, she just couldn’t put a simple leave with no deal in front of the commons even though she promised she would. She had to add her own “default position” to it. In normal negotiations of course you would want to keep walking away as an option - with the knowledge that you won’t do that. For May though, nobody trusts her because from day one she has aligned herself with the ERG. She could quite possibly push the U.K. over the cliff edge, so rightly Parliament is trying to stop her. They might fail because the law will need to be changed. One ERG member has said he will fight hard against the law being changed - that’s how tough these particular cookies are. 

This entire mess is because of one person, the PM. She laid down her red lines in the belief she could negotiate this unicorn deal where we could move totally away from the EU, yet still have access to everything she required from them. She didn’t even consider the problem with the Irish Border. 

If she’d have gone for a softer brexit right at the beginning I believe we would be leaving the EU in 16 days time. She took this thing on herself, aligned herself to the wrong people, listened to absolutely nobody else - and still isn’t doing. She is to blame.

In her defence if she went for the soft brexit which would have retained freedom of movement, inability to make trade deals and have the EU's laws still applied to us she would have got absolutely torn to pieces by most of her own party.

She's not handled it well, but the cards she got were terrible. 

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2 hours ago, gumboots said:

Don't think anyone has a clue. They reckon she'll bring her deal back

I just read about that. Staggering really. But then I suppose what other option does she have?

I'm just wondering how, at what point, and to whom the buck will be passed. But that buck certainly needs to be passed, as May cannot take us any further.

Someone will need to be put in charge willing to kick off the second referendum process.

Maybe Phillip Hammond?

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I think that we are at the Brexit end game.  I can see the ERG now faced with Brexit not happening falling in line to vote through May's deal within the next week, then we get a article 50 extension to push through all of the technical requirements.  Then Tories will push out May.

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18 minutes ago, Kamy100 said:

I think that we are at the Brexit end game.  I can see the ERG now faced with Brexit not happening falling in line to vote through May's deal within the next week, then we get a article 50 extension to push through all of the technical requirements.  Then Tories will push out May.

That's the way I see it, too. The ERG and hard Brexiters' insane dream of no deal is over. May's deal is the best they can hope for, but I think May still needs the support of the DUP, as some Tories vote in line with their support - and I'm not sure that the DUP could ever vote for the possibility of a border between them and Britain.

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Surely they will have to have a re-vote on the no deal vote?

312 v 308. That's not a majority. That's 50.3% to 49.7%. Basically 50-50 when rounded up/down.  😋

We demand another referendumb!!

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56 minutes ago, Kamy100 said:

I think that we are at the Brexit end game.  I can see the ERG now faced with Brexit not happening falling in line to vote through May's deal within the next week, then we get a article 50 extension to push through all of the technical requirements.  Then Tories will push out May.

I can't really see why ERG or DUP will change their position. They hate Mays deal as much as staying in the EU.

Seemingly bizarre - but logically sensible - is that their best chance of getting the deal they want is another referendum, and getting no deal on the ballot.

I imagine they are already planning for this.

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1 hour ago, Kamy100 said:

I think that we are at the Brexit end game.  I can see the ERG now faced with Brexit not happening falling in line to vote through May's deal within the next week, then we get a article 50 extension to push through all of the technical requirements.  Then Tories will push out May.

That's what I fear although Baker was stridently anti-May's deal tonight.

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49 minutes ago, Husky said:

Surely they will have to have a re-vote on the no deal vote?

312 v 308. That's not a majority. That's 50.3% to 49.7%. Basically 50-50 when rounded up/down.  😋

We demand another referendumb!!

Only that close because Tories put on a three-line whip. Several ministers abstained to save their jobs including 4 cabinet ministers.

What happened to the "free vote" promised the night before?

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Doubt whether UK voters could cope with Preferred Voting without an intensive TV ad programme and several mini trials. This would take months.

If you think I'm being condescending, people were questioned about how they voted in the EU referendum and a not uncommon response was "What's the EU?"

If there is to be a second vote it'll be between Remain or leave on Theresa May's deal.

The basis for that is that the EU would accept either outcome.

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7 hours ago, joey_big_nose said:

I can't really see why ERG or DUP will change their position. They hate Mays deal as much as staying in the EU.

Seemingly bizarre - but logically sensible - is that their best chance of getting the deal they want is another referendum, and getting no deal on the ballot.

I imagine they are already planning for this.

I just think that ERG in particular would rather have a bad deal then run the risk of a softer brexit or a second referendum.

The DUP spent much of yesterday talking to the Attorney General the speculation is that he is going to clarify some of his legal advice which would then allow the DUP to change their position.

All of that said, what happened yesterday was astonishing, we had ministers ignoring their Prime Minister who has now lost control, yet she still carries on.  Some of the narrative in the press is that May is a trooper and is doing this out of a sense of duty.  I don't buy it, this is a politician who has made so many bad decisions, just look at what she left behind in the home office (windrush etc), then she took over botched the biggest negotiations that our country has faced in a lifetime and managed to reduce her majority by having an ill advised election.

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59 minutes ago, 47er said:

Doubt whether UK voters could cope with Preferred Voting without an intensive TV ad programme and several mini trials. This would take months.

If you think I'm being condescending, people were questioned about how they voted in the EU referendum and a not uncommon response was "What's the EU?"

If there is to be a second vote it'll be between Remain or leave on Theresa May's deal.

The basis for that is that the EU would accept either outcome.

Yes, this is exactly right. As far as I'm aware we don't use Single Transferable Vote in this country and people will struggle with it. The other issue is the danger of skewing the result. Deal, no deal and remain heavily biases the potential vote towards leave.

Remain or May's deal should be the choice.

Edited by Paul

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14 minutes ago, MCMC1875 said:

A majority voted to leave. There is never complete knowledge of the future in any election. The remainers should accept the result and move on. The ballot paper did not say 'Do you want to leave the EU with a deal?' , it said 'leave the EU'. Many trying to fudge the exit with a deal are wanting to split the exit camp and remain. The government is plainly failing to carry out the will of the people.

I understand and even as a remainer have sympathy with this view though I don't agree.

The difficulty is the country is now fully aware of the likely damage leave will do. An informed decision is now the correct way forward with a second referendum.

There is a view this this would be anti-democratic but the last few weeks have proved equally undemocratic. May has been convincingly defeated by Parliament at every turn. Yet she keeps returning with vote after vote and is now rumoured to be returning to Parliament before March 20th.

May should accept the will of Parliament.

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Just now, MCMC1875 said:

Why?

Because this is as close to the original question as we can realistically get and reflects the actual position. To simply repeat the original question will not solve the problem.

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One question occurred to me. The ERG, what is it exactly they have researched? They have yet to put forward sound arguments as to the benefits of leaving.

Surely the ERG has "researched" this?

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32 minutes ago, MCMC1875 said:

A majority voted to leave. There is never complete knowledge of the future in any election. The remainers should accept the result and move on. The ballot paper did not say 'Do you want to leave the EU with a deal?' , it said 'leave the EU'. Many trying to fudge the exit with a deal are wanting to split the exit camp and remain. The government is plainly failing to carry out the will of the people.

Been a while since anyone has brought this old chestnut out! I voted remain and know we are leaving the EU, no arguments from me!

But then, what are we moving onto? If things look like they're going to hell in a handcart, are people not allowed a comment on that? Isn't that our democratic right?.....

Edited by K-Hod

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Everyone has accepted the result, it's just they're discussing potential outcomes as far as I can see! A second referendum isn't impossible, to be fair!

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Just now, MCMC1875 said:

That's not accepting the result of the first though. You're just like those who won't accept the result!

I've accepted the result, 100%, believe me!

I'm not out there campaigning for a second referendum, I'd rather we didn't have one! 

All I'm saying though, is that it may well be that there is another referendum again! 

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Has anyone noticed how Theresa May having multiple votes in Parliament on the same deal is Parliamentary Democracy in action yet having another referendum would be to undermine the democratic process? 🤔

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I accepted the result and was not for a second referendum.  However, I did not forsee the situation that we are in now, in that the negotiations being so badly handled by May et al. If they can still come to some agreement then good but if they cannot then surely they have to go back to the people and say you voted for this and now here are the options because we your elected representatives cannot agree on the way forward so you decide.

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3 minutes ago, oldjamfan1 said:

Has anyone noticed how Theresa May having multiple votes in Parliament on the same deal is Parliamentary Democracy in action yet having another referendum would be to undermine the democratic process? 🤔

Yes, see my earlier post. You are in my view absolutely correct.

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Tory sources saying the ERG are furious with abstaining ministers and could well abstain from any future confidence votes.

They say they would rather topple the government, confident that they'd still win their seats in a General Election, than to stop Brexit from happening.

 

 

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