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32 minutes ago, Baz said:

It's scary, because I think this is the fourth time the government has put this deal on the table, and the fourth time it's been rejected.

It's obvious from my postings that I don't want Brexit at all, but a WTO rules hard Brexit is by far the riskiest proposal on the table.

In my opinion, we need to go and rescind A50 and give ourselves time to put a logical deal together, or go back to the public and say we haven't managed to secure a trade deal, should we a) Proceed on WTO rules, b) Stop Brexit, c) go back to EU and get the best deal we can (based probably very similar to Norway).  

It isn't a deal - it;s an offer. 

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14 hours ago, Baz said:

No one said it's never happened before, but increased fuel prices are due in large to the drop in value of the pound a consequence of Brexit.

 

Sounds a good argument.  But one problem - the big price hike came in April and May (from £1.19 to £1.28), when the pound had been at it's strongest post referendum.  Oops.

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There are other factors that affect the spot price of oil, in this case the ramping back of production by the Saudi's - but the underlying argument is we are paying 20% more for petrol that we need to because of the crash in Sterling. Oil is priced in $ and the £ is over 20% weaker against the $ because of Brexit, Our GDP is the 2nd worst in the whole of the Eurozone, because of Brexit, The Euro exchange rate is the weakest it has been since the 2008 banking crisis, because of Brexit - Stick your head in the sand all you want, but we are screwed economically, because of Brexit

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39 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

There are other factors that affect the spot price of oil, in this case the ramping back of production by the Saudi's - but the underlying argument is we are paying 20% more for petrol that we need to because of the crash in Sterling. Oil is priced in $ and the £ is over 20% weaker against the $ because of Brexit, Our GDP is the 2nd worst in the whole of the Eurozone, because of Brexit, The Euro exchange rate is the weakest it has been since the 2008 banking crisis, because of Brexit - Stick your head in the sand all you want, but we are screwed economically, because of Brexit

All you're doing is proving that if you want to blame Brexit, you will do even when you know the facts don't fit.   Sterling is not more than 20% down against the dollar since the referendum.  The rate in June 2016 was mid 1.40s, it's been around 1.28 for the past month. More to the point, it was up around 1.40, almost back at pre-referendum levels, when the big increase in petrol prices started in April.  And fuel prices did not jump up by 20% in the period after the vote.   So contrary to what was being claimed in this thread, Brexit has had negligble impact on petrol prices - the other factors you mention are far more significant.

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24 minutes ago, Rover-the-Top said:

All you're doing is proving that if you want to blame Brexit, you will do even when you know the facts don't fit.   Sterling is not more than 20% down against the dollar since the referendum.  The rate in June 2016 was mid 1.40s, it's been around 1.28 for the past month. More to the point, it was up around 1.40, almost back at pre-referendum levels, when the big increase in petrol prices started in April.  And fuel prices did not jump up by 20% in the period after the vote.   So contrary to what was being claimed in this thread, Brexit has had negligble impact on petrol prices - the other factors you mention are far more significant.

As has been pointed out many times before, currency movements affect the oil price, and sterling has been hit by the Brexit uncertainty. To claim therefore that "Brexit has had negligible impact on petrol prices" is patently untrue. 

Many people would love to know how we are going to be better off post-March 2019.  Perhaps you could explain

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2 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

As has been pointed out many times before, currency movements affect the oil price, and sterling has been hit by the Brexit uncertainty. To claim therefore that "Brexit has had negligible impact on petrol prices" is patently untrue. 

 

You can point it out as many times as you want Jim. It's a reasonable theory, Sterling goes down, oil price goes up - Sterling goes up, oil price must go down.  But dig into the actual facts, and you'll find what I am saying is true, there's no correlation to back that theory up.  Petrol prices rose during the first half of 2016 despite a fairly constant rate against the dollar.   They stayed pretty much the same for a few months straight after the referendum and the initial big dip in the value of the pound. There was then a rise over the turn of the year and a fall as Sterling started to recover, as you might expect.  But then petrol prices started to rise again despite the pound still getting stronger.  And as I've said, a rapid rise during this year after Sterling reached it's strongest for two years. It might not suit what you want to believe, but these are facts. The other factors that determine petrol prices have a far greater impact than the exchange rate, and therefore any impact from voting to leave.

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It's crazy that the UK keeps on putting the same deal on the table. It's brinkmanship, hoping that the eu will crack at the last minute. Of course they won't. So we'll crash out without any sort of deal at all. The consequences will be punitive and will be felt by all but the very rich, who have been the drivers of brexit from the very beginning and have used the press and social media to brain wash people. 

It's tragic that people will only realise that they've been had after irreversible damage has been done

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Yes sorry I overstated the 20% that was for the most of 2017 post Brexit Vote,, today we're only 15% down - You are correct there are may factors affecting the price of Petrol and a 15% drop in the value of sterling is one of them  - Caused by Brexit - trying to correlate today's price on what Sterling is doing today is never going to happen, today's oil was bought 6 months ago

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11 hours ago, Rover-the-Top said:

Sounds a good argument.  But one problem - the big price hike came in April and May (from £1.19 to £1.28), when the pound had been at it's strongest post referendum.  Oops.

The increase in April and May was when Trump was having his spat with Iran, pushing the price of oil up.

Oops.

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12 hours ago, Baz said:

The increase in April and May was when Trump was having his spat with Iran, pushing the price of oil up.

Oops.

So you agree then, not a result of Brexit.  There, that wasn't so bad was it?

 

 

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11 hours ago, Rover-the-Top said:

So you agree then, not a result of Brexit.  There, that wasn't so bad was it?

 

 

You really think Brexit has had zero impact on the value of the pound? 

 

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On 04/09/2018 at 19:20, Jimbo said:

Yes sorry I overstated the 20% that was for the most of 2017 post Brexit Vote,, today we're only 15% down - You are correct there are may factors affecting the price of Petrol and a 15% drop in the value of sterling is one of them  - Caused by Brexit - trying to correlate today's price on what Sterling is doing today is never going to happen, today's oil was bought 6 months ago

Petrol also gone up in Australia at a alarming rate over the past couple of years, chocolate bars have gotten smaller as well as quantities in other food packaging whilst  prices have remained the same or increased, , cost of services up, house prices down , currency up and down , companies conveniently moving to lower waged and cost areas of the world with varied bs excuses,  just like the the UK, but with  no Ausxit in sight

A lot of the same global parent companies responsible for profiteering, despite sourcing from other parts of the world to supply the AU market compared to the UK market. 

There are a lot of reasons why it is happening , just convenient to blame Brexit in the UK and companies taking advantage of it to increase profit.

That is not to say the knock on effect of Brexit as some small part to play (in the UK)

 

Edited by perthblue02

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11 hours ago, Baz said:

You really think Brexit has had zero impact on the value of the pound? 

 

That wasn't what I was disputing, was it?   The pound has gone down, back up and then down again since the referendum.  But we were talking about petrol pump prices, and how they've risen this year.  And where all you remainers who think you know it all because you read an opinion piece in the Guardian fall down is, those fluctuations in exchange rates aren't necessarily passed on to the consumer.  Other factors have a more significant impact, such as as you pointed out, an international row leading to the price of oil itself increasing. You're all looking to blame Brexit for everything because you want it to be true, but it's not the case.

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10 hours ago, Rover-the-Top said:

That wasn't what I was disputing, was it?   The pound has gone down, back up and then down again since the referendum.  But we were talking about petrol pump prices, and how they've risen this year.  And where all you remainers who think you know it all because you read an opinion piece in the Guardian fall down is, those fluctuations in exchange rates aren't necessarily passed on to the consumer.  Other factors have a more significant impact, such as as you pointed out, an international row leading to the price of oil itself increasing. You're all looking to blame Brexit for everything because you want it to be true, but it's not the case.

I think you may need to look in the mirror before accusing others of thinking they know it all.

Feel free to live in your fantasy land where Brexit is not already causing major problems for this country, before we even leave. 

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12 hours ago, Baz said:

I think you may need to look in the mirror before accusing others of thinking they know it all.

 

I don't know it all but I do know when I'm right and when to back down... 😁What you should be  thinking is why you're still trying to argue when you disproved your own argument yourself a couple of posts ago.  Obviously you know you've got no comeback, that's why you're suddenly avoiding the points I've made and getting personal instead.     There are and will be negative impacts in some areas because of Brexit. If and when they're raised, I won't argue because there won't be a credible argument to put forward.  But when you're all taking the stance that every single thing is bad because of Brexit, it just makes it easy to pick the moments you're talking nonsense. Like with petrol prices...

Edited by Rover-the-Top

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Petrol prices are affected by Brexit - It's not the only factor, but it is a factor. It is undeniable that the weakness in the Pound against the US Dollar caused by Brexit affects the price of oil which is priced in Dollars. You obviously don't know when your are wrong, only when you are right, which seems to be a common fallacy among the Brexiteers !

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59 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

 It is undeniable that the weakness in the Pound against the US Dollar caused by Brexit affects the price of oil which is priced in Dollars.

That's true - BUT you're then making the assumption that those exchange rate fluctuations are passed onto consumers at the pumps.  When you look at the data, that assumption doesn't fit.

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And you're making assumptions that the historically benevolent Oil companies have not passed on a 15% increase in the price of Oil - I fully expect them to - From the PDF linked here

http://www.ukpia.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/ukpia-briefing-paper-understanding-pump-prices-2017.pdf

"Historically, crude prices have worked through to product prices and, as an indication, a $2 per barrel change in the price of crude oil has, on average, translated to approximately 1p per litre in the pump price, at a constant $/£ exchange rate."

On a 15% increase in Barrel price @ $60 because of exchange rate fluctuations,  would give a 4.5p increase

Now I can't see that change because I don't have the technical expertise to sift the data from all the other noise associated with the pump price of petrol, but I'm sure you can offer evidence that disproves me.

Edited by Jimbo

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9 hours ago, Rover-the-Top said:

I don't know it all but I do know when I'm right and when to back down... 😁What you should be  thinking is why you're still trying to argue when you disproved your own argument yourself a couple of posts ago.  Obviously you know you've got no comeback, that's why you're suddenly avoiding the points I've made and getting personal instead.     There are and will be negative impacts in some areas because of Brexit. If and when they're raised, I won't argue because there won't be a credible argument to put forward.  But when you're all taking the stance that every single thing is bad because of Brexit, it just makes it easy to pick the moments you're talking nonsense. Like with petrol prices...

Fuel prices have increased because there has been a fall in the value of the pound - which is related to market uncertainty around Brexit; yes other factors are also at play like we discussed. Saying prices don't always follow the value of the pound, therefore your whole hypothesis is wrong is wrong in itself. Both things can be true at the same time.

As for the getting personal part, I think you should read back. It's you who started with the guardian reading know it all stuff, and telling me I have no comeback. I could have called you a daily mail reading bigot, but chose not to, as I don't know you, and wouldn't want to insult you.

However, if you can't accept that the value of the pound has an affect on imports of fuel, then I'd call into question your impartiality when looking at the effects of Brexit, negative or positive.

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Land Rover Jaguar chief telling it as it is. If there’s friction at the ports, he won’t be able to run his business. Tens of thousands of jobs at risk. 

This guy isn’t a politician, he’s a businessman. I worked in the vehicle manufacturing business. Mark my words - the moment they can’t work and produce vehicles at full capacity, they WILL lay workers off and if it lasts any length of time, they WILL close their factories. They certainly won’t take huge losses for long.

Time to stop this unnecessary madness now.

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We are heading for a crisis which, outside of war, very few people in the UK have experienced. If there is no agreement there can be no rules and suddenly we end up with an unregulated free for all.

The only upside being if we crash out of the EU it should destroy the Tories for a generation. Sadly though we don't have anyone competent to replace them!

Edited by Paul

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On 07/09/2018 at 15:05, Jimbo said:

Now I can't see that change because I don't have the technical expertise to sift the data from all the other noise associated with the pump price of petrol, but I'm sure you can offer evidence that disproves me.

So that's two of you who've now adopted the same point I'm making in an attempt to argue with me.  It's an unusually approach, but I'm not going to even attempt to disprove myself...😂Obviously on a day-to-day basis, imports priced in dollars are affected by fluctuations in the exchange rate.  But we weren't talking about if oil is more expensive for the petrol companies to buy.  The question was whether the big rise in pump prices this year was down to Brexit. As you say, the effect of the exchange rate is lost in the "noise" from other factors - that was my point.  And as Baz pointed out, the rise was actually to do with a more permanent oil price rise which was nothing to do with Brexit.   Between the two of you, you've explained why Brexit isn't the reason why petrol prices have gone up...

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No, you're twisting things - What I said was there has been at least a 4.5p increase in the pump price of fuel directly attributable to Brexit, what you are saying is Brexit has had no effect. I never insisted other factors don't have an affect on pump prices, just that Brexit has already cost me money directly.

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8 hours ago, Rover-the-Top said:

So that's two of you who've now adopted the same point I'm making in an attempt to argue with me.  It's an unusually approach, but I'm not going to even attempt to disprove myself...😂Obviously on a day-to-day basis, imports priced in dollars are affected by fluctuations in the exchange rate.  But we weren't talking about if oil is more expensive for the petrol companies to buy.  The question was whether the big rise in pump prices this year was down to Brexit. As you say, the effect of the exchange rate is lost in the "noise" from other factors - that was my point.  And as Baz pointed out, the rise was actually to do with a more permanent oil price rise which was nothing to do with Brexit.   Between the two of you, you've explained why Brexit isn't the reason why petrol prices have gone up...

Yawn.

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On 12/09/2018 at 07:07, Paul said:

We are heading for a crisis which, outside of war, very few people in the UK have experienced. If there is no agreement there can be no rules and suddenly we end up with an unregulated free for all.

The only upside being if we crash out of the EU it should destroy the Tories for a generation. Sadly though we don't have anyone competent to replace them!

potd-corbyn_3457949b.jpg

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