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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, den said:

Guess what? Using all cause deaths as a method to evaluate the effects of a virus does only take into account deaths.

its the same system that’s used to work out figures for Flu.

upscale deaths? No idea what that means.

You have in the past drawn comparisons from the official nations statistics and compared them with Giles uplifted U.K. death rates. That is purposely misleading. 
 

Likewise when considering excess mortality you have to wait until the time is right to compare. If you want me to listen to Whitty and Giles then you can’t cherry pick what you want me to listen to and not listen to. Whitty himself has said it’s too early, and discussed the “harvesting” situation I’ve explained....but you ignore that. 
 

Forget it though. You won’t acknowledge that more thought has to go into the data comparisons than what you are willing to put into it. You’ve got your stick, proceed to try and convince the handful of posters on here that it’s big enough to beat the govt with. You’ll only be fighting a losing battle however. 

Edited by Dreams of 1995

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22 minutes ago, den said:

No Chaddy, I don’t. I mean the figures from the National office of statistics.

so, do you accept that number could well be around 53,000 now?

then post the ONS date on the forum then? but you haven't. You have posted the Chris Giles info on excess deaths who isn't a scientist or medical reporter but a Economic editor for Financial times. So which data are you using or is it just whichever suits your argument at the time. 

I will use the official info from the government that it present at the daily press conference each day. That's the official data I will used from now on.

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Then it'll be wrong. The data is always behind the facts. You cant register deaths at the weekend normally and you have to have an appointment with a registrar to do so, so deaths look low at the weekend and on Monday but spike on Tuesday when everyone has had chance to get an appointment from over the weekend 

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

then post the ONS date on the forum then? but you haven't. You have posted the Chris Giles info on excess deaths who isn't a scientist or medical reporter but a Economic editor for Financial times. So which data are you using or is it just whichever suits your argument at the time. 

I will use the official info from the government that it present at the daily press conference each day. That's the official data I will used from now on.

One of many links Chaddy

"No country reports on death registrations data as fast, frequently, or to such breadth and depth as we can in the UK," Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at the ONS, stated on Twitter.

Crisis in nursing homes

Britain's virus death toll has risen dramatically as the extent of the pandemic's impact on care homes has emerged.

Nearly 6,400 people with coronavirus have died in care homes in England alone, with numbers still rising even as the wider outbreak slows, according to the ONS figures.

More than 2,000 of those were reported in the last week of April -- when Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Britain was "past the peak".

Stripe said the ONS had recorded a total of around 42,000 "excess deaths" -- how many more people have died in total than would normally be expected -- in the past five weeks.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-covid-19-deaths-top-170243736.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANvKzvzh02Z62kr49FF528IOygGXvXH0k8ho9NXvlLilrhBFh2y56zxF1l9vOMYGktFkA-yzk-N-z2MTLqRI2RGVSVf_n0BwjWjVRSn4N2R9iBohsjiFF3Msd7kydMdTMiYywI3vqKah6Ud0JEBTybDPcoyku3gMngpJrS7OuVm5
 

you’re obviously arguing something you haven’t even checked out.

so now we’ve settled the “fact” that there were 42,000 excess deaths by March, do you think  that number will be higher now? Chris Giles will be pretty close with his figure of 53,000 excess deaths now don’t you think?

Edited by den

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, den said:

That’s like saying George Best was a bloke who kicked a ball about.

Chris Giles is the economics editor for the Financial Times. Andy Bayes is a journalist.

Funnily enough I know who Chris Giles is... Amazing how us non socialists can read

I don't see anywhere within his CV his qualifications in data mapping or statistical recording?? I tend to stick to ons figures or figures produced by John Hopkins. Which is non partial and provide me with all the raw data I need. 

I realy don't need any newspaper or media outlet to put a spin on numbers in order to keep readership or viewership up. 

I reiterate my Op, which it seems is unanswerable (without going down the same old dogmatic argument). We are so keen on comparisons. Yet nobody is keen to make comparisons to the two countries we have most demographic comparison with. Belgium and The Netherlands. I wonder why this is? 

Edited by Bazzanotsogreat

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17 minutes ago, den said:

One of many links Chaddy

"No country reports on death registrations data as fast, frequently, or to such breadth and depth as we can in the UK," 

So out of all excess mortality rates, the UKs could be higher than other countries simply because we're better at capturing the data? 

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2 hours ago, den said:

Where have I compared 53,000 deaths with the rest of the world? 

Well, here.

Or comparing with Europe anyway.

16 hours ago, den said:

Not so. Lewis Goodall illustrated on newsnight that when we compare excess deaths against excess deaths in other European countries we still  do very badly.

Germany has a very low rate of excess deaths.
 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e32ddbf7-0826-4cf7-9a73-18611eb29c23

And this FT article from 2 days ago says:

Comparisons of excess deaths between the UK and Italy are difficult because like-for-like data only exist up to the end of March.

 

Which is why some of us are saying let's just wait till some accurate and sensible like for like figures are available, and make judgments from there. 

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7 minutes ago, Silas said:

Which is why some of us are saying let's just wait till some accurate and sensible like for like figures are available, and make judgments from there. 

You mean, let's kick this down the road and hope something turns up because these figures are a reflection of failure....

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, den said:

One of many links Chaddy

"No country reports on death registrations data as fast, frequently, or to such breadth and depth as we can in the UK," Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at the ONS, stated on Twitter.

Crisis in nursing homes

Britain's virus death toll has risen dramatically as the extent of the pandemic's impact on care homes has emerged.

Nearly 6,400 people with coronavirus have died in care homes in England alone, with numbers still rising even as the wider outbreak slows, according to the ONS figures.

More than 2,000 of those were reported in the last week of April -- when Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Britain was "past the peak".

Stripe said the ONS had recorded a total of around 42,000 "excess deaths" -- how many more people have died in total than would normally be expected -- in the past five weeks.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-covid-19-deaths-top-170243736.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANvKzvzh02Z62kr49FF528IOygGXvXH0k8ho9NXvlLilrhBFh2y56zxF1l9vOMYGktFkA-yzk-N-z2MTLqRI2RGVSVf_n0BwjWjVRSn4N2R9iBohsjiFF3Msd7kydMdTMiYywI3vqKah6Ud0JEBTybDPcoyku3gMngpJrS7OuVm5
 

you’re obviously arguing something you haven’t even checked out.

so now we’ve settled the “fact” that there were 42,000 excess deaths by March, do you think  that number will be higher now? Chris Giles will be pretty close with his figure of 53,000 excess deaths now don’t you think?

Says nothing by mid March at all in your link which you said originally 42k by mid March. 

Your original post said "42000 excess deaths by mid March - fact or fiction?"

Which was wrong. He said to quote

"We've now seen in the last five registration weeks 38,500 excess deaths across England and Wales," he told BBC television.

"If you add in the latest figures from Scotland and Northern Ireland, that's about 42,000 deaths above average in the last five-week period."

Last five weeks which probably started last week and half in March and ended 24th April. 

Spain and Italy only include Deaths in their figures released and not them outside that setting. So you see why I keep repeating myself about listening the Cheif Medical officer Chris Whitty about waiting before over analysing the figures till all countries actually reported their true figures. 

What in Chris Giles background and skills suggest he is qualify to judge and analyse the data from the Government? Is he expert or qualified in data reading or recording and analysing statistics? 

I rather get my figures from the official government website or from office of national statistics not from a FT journalist. 

@den any response to this? 

https://www.brfcs.com/mb/index.php?/forums/topic/34356-coronavirus/&do=findComment&comment=2057756

 

Edited by chaddyrovers

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4 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

You mean, let's kick this down the road and hope something turns up because these figures are a reflection of failure....

Nope. It means let's actually properly evaluate the data available and not make judgements based on half-baked assessments and a clear bias.

It may be hard for some to believe but not everyone has a thirst to find fault. Some just want the truth. 

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7 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

You mean, let's kick this down the road and hope something turns up because these figures are a reflection of failure....

Or on the flip side we could absolutely batter johnson and co now before something turns up to show it's not been as big a failure as it seems. 

 

Dont get me wrong I'm not a johnson fan, I thought his behaviour since becoming PM is atrocious from closing parliament to the shocking election campaign to filling his cabinet with talentless brexit yes men so I'm by no means defending him because I'm a tory loyalist. I was genunienly gutted when they won a landslide in the last election. I just think if we're going to hang people out to dry it needs to be based on fact rather than an emotionally charged death rate figure which at this stage does not paint the full picture and is not like for like with other countries. 

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9 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

You mean, let's kick this down the road and hope something turns up because these figures are a reflection of failure....

.........after an inquiry lasting years, which is likely to be headed by a government-appointed lackey promised a peerage for his troubles, and will remain unpublished for several more years in the "national" (Conservative party) interest, is likely to be a whitewash anyway with fingers of blame pointed at people who have long retired or died, and certainly not at politicians, and which no one will care about anyway because it will be history and people's lives will have moved on.

Hopefully, the country's best journalists will get to the truth. Some would say it's out there already

 

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16 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

You mean, let's kick this down the road and hope something turns up because these figures are a reflection of failure....

"....these figures..."    Which figures? 

That's the while point. None of the figures match up in any way, shape, or form. It's all over the spot. 

I assume the April like for like excess deaths will be out in next few weeks. Will be interesting to see them. Still won't tell the full story, as we were a month behind rest of Europe.  

I'd say end May figures will be the ones. Get 3 full months of data Mar, Apr , May. That's how company's judge their business performances, by the quarter. Seems totally reasonable to me.

I couldn't give a toss who gets reflected in failure.  You say I want to kick it down the road,  it works both ways. I say, why are some people so desperate to jump to conclusions and judgements in such a short space of time? It's pretty much universally accepted that the figures between countries are muddled at best at the moment. Plus the different timelines (which is likely to make UK look worse in the end). 

Folk saying this will be swept under the carpet. C'mon, get real. This is here to stay in some form for a year or so. Not going to disappear is it? Don't think anyone's saying wait till 2021 to do a analysis.  But equally, we don't even have data for 1 full month of lockdown yet (April). There's a sensible middle ground no? 

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1 minute ago, Silas said:

"....these figures..."    Which figures? 

That's the while point. None of the figures match up in any way, shape, or form. It's all over the spot. 

I assume the April like for like excess deaths will be out in next few weeks. Will be interesting to see them. Still won't tell the full story, as we were a month behind rest of Europe.  

I'd say end May figures will be the ones. Get 3 full months of data Mar, Apr , May. That's how company's judge their business performances, by the quarter. Seems totally reasonable to me.

I couldn't give a toss who gets reflected in failure.  You say I want to kick it down the road,  it works both ways. I say, why are some people so desperate to jump to conclusions and judgements in such a short space of time? It's pretty much universally accepted that the figures between countries are muddled at best at the moment. Plus the different timelines (which is likely to make UK look worse in the end). 

Folk saying this will be swept under the carpet. C'mon, get real. This is here to stay in some form for a year or so. Not going to disappear is it? Don't think anyone's saying wait till 2021 to do a analysis.  But equally, we don't even have data for 1 full month of lockdown yet (April). There's a sensible middle ground no? 

All makes perfect sense although I feel that in May if it turns out the UK is the worst in europe by far, people will come back to this type of post in a perversely gloating manner to say they were right and you were wrong despite you just arguing to get proper facts. 

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3 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

 

.........after an inquiry lasting years, which is likely to be headed by a government-appointed lackey promised a peerage for his troubles, and will remain unpublished for several more years in the "national" (Conservative party) interest, is likely to be a whitewash anyway with fingers of blame pointed at people who have long retired or died, and certainly not at politicians, and which no one will care about anyway because it will be history and people's lives will have moved on.

Hopefully, the country's best journalists will get to the truth. Some would say it's out there already

 

Yeah.

Hopefully we have learned lessons from the Chilcott Report and the dangers of trying to cover up MPs roles in controversy. 

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2 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

Yeah.

Hopefully we have learned lessons from the Chilcott Report and the dangers of trying to cover up MPs roles in controversy. 

I'm not sure the MPs will care as long as they stay in position. Like Jim says, it will all come out in the wash in about 10 years when all the players are long gone.

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11 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

I'm not sure the MPs will care as long as they stay in position. Like Jim says, it will all come out in the wash in about 10 years when all the players are long gone.

Happens with every inquiry into politicians. Will probably happen to this one too. That doesn't mean we should rush to a judgement though.

MPs have never, ever stood up to their responsibilities and the ones that do usually end up worming their way back into the public domain eventually anyway.

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

You mean, let's kick this down the road and hope something turns up because these figures are a reflection of failure....

So you want to compare a non specialist, journalists figures to other countries, that record deaths in a completely different manner. I. E only recording hospital deaths

Sounds sensible.... 

Edited by Bazzanotsogreat

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14 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

All makes perfect sense although I feel that in May if it turns out the UK is the worst in europe by far, people will come back to this type of post in a perversely gloating manner to say they were right and you were wrong despite you just arguing to get proper facts. 

Not sure gloating is the best term to go with Dom, but if the stats read out that message, then I'll take it on the chin, and be the first criticising those responsible. 

I'm happy to plant my flag in the sand. There's 2 sets of data I'm interested in. That's excess deaths. I agree with Den that it will be an accurate reflection of performance. (I just don't agree with it being compared to other Countries right now, as the data isn't accurate.)

And also deaths per million. As economies of scale have to be relevant.

But if an analysis of excess deaths, reflected per million of population,  shows we are the worst in Europe (even the World) then that will indeed be a disgrace. Particularly as we had a head start on everyone else.

And 3 months figures feels a fair starting point, then 6 months, 9, etc etc. 

Just my own personal framework to judge this crisis by. Others, will criticise and choose their own route, that's up to them.

But I'm confident in those benchmarks as a fair reflection of the big picture. And we're talking maybe 6/7 weeks till those figures will be available. Not an eternity really. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, chaddyrovers said:

Says nothing by mid March at all in your link which you said originally 42k by mid March. 

Your original post said "42000 excess deaths by mid March - fact or fiction?"

Which was wrong. He said to quote

"We've now seen in the last five registration weeks 38,500 excess deaths across England and Wales," he told BBC television.

"If you add in the latest figures from Scotland and Northern Ireland, that's about 42,000 deaths above average in the last five-week period."

Last five weeks which probably started last week and half in March and ended 24th April. 

Spain and Italy only include Deaths in their figures released and not them outside that setting. So you see why I keep repeating myself about listening the Cheif Medical officer Chris Whitty about waiting before over analysing the figures till all countries actually reported their true figures. 

What in Chris Giles background and skills suggest he is qualify to judge and analyse the data from the Government? Is he expert or qualified in data reading or recording and analysing statistics? 

I rather get my figures from the official government website or from office of national statistics not from a FT journalist. 

@den any response to this? 

https://www.brfcs.com/mb/index.php?/forums/topic/34356-coronavirus/&do=findComment&comment=2057756

 

Sidestepping again. You said 42000 deaths wasn’t correct. It was - and in fact it’s already out of date.

Here are some more FACTS for you to deny. 42,700 excess deaths up to 6th May. You don’t need to wait and see these figures.

you still haven’t told me what they could possibly caused by?

That’s 42,700 confirmed excess deaths Chaddy. That in itself is huge and way above anything this government would admit to. It’s also a “cautiously” estimated 54,300 deaths over and above the average. Huge.

Edited by den

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3 minutes ago, den said:

Sidestepping again. You said 42000 deaths wasn’t correct. It was - and in fact it’s already out of date.

Here are some more FACTS for you to deny. 42,700 excess deaths up to 6th May.

you still haven’t told me what they could possibly caused by?

 

Den, talk about sidestepping issues. You have sidestepped every post I have asked specific questions like Chris Giles background and experience in data reading or recording and analysing statistics? You have already the good points by 4 posters have made already on this like Silas and Bazzanotsogreat. 

Why wont you listened to experts in the field like Chris Whitty, Jonathon Van Tam, David Speigelhalter in analysing data and stats instead of using an Chris Giles who is not expert in this field? Are you expert in the data recording or analysing statistics? 

ONS figures are up 24th April cos there is 2 weeks gap in ONS figures as always. So you are wrong on the 6th of May. Also you said 42k deaths by Mid March which was wrong cos The ONS on the 42k excess death are 5 weeks period finishing on 24th April. 

 Your are using different stats from different people to suit you own argument. 

 

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Just now, chaddyrovers said:

Chris Giles who is not expert in this field? 

He's economic editor of the world's leading financial newspaper, which is read by presidents, prime ministers and captains of industry around the world.

He likely knows more about it than any of the government's "experts"

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Posted (edited)

I’ll just leave Chaddy with this fact then I’ll give up.
 

42,700 excess deaths so far. That’s 42,500 people that have died above the average. 
 

not from Chris Giles, from the ONS.
 

 

 

 

Edited by den

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Posted (edited)

If one expert says one thing and another expert says another then who's right ?  The er....expert ?

That's how crazy this thing is and it seems no one is throwing a straight bat over numbers or rather the way they present them. 

And if the Chinese lied, the Yanks downplayed theirs, Russia never tells the truth and Italy & our lot are accused of massaging numbers what makes us so sure Germany are telling it straight ?

Edited by tomphil

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, tomphil said:

If one expert says one thing and another expert says another then who's right ?  The er....expert ?

That's how crazy this thing is and it seems no one is throwing a straight bat over numbers or rather the way they present them. 

And if the Chinese lied, the Yanks downplayed theirs, Russia never tells the truth and Italy & our lot are accused of massaging numbers what makes us so sure Germany are telling it straight ?

It’s straight forward. 42500 excess deaths during the coronavirus outbreak. It’s a fact.

Edited by den

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