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Posted (edited)

THe head of the ONS nick stripe

Lots of comment about the UK having the highest death toll in Europe. International comparisons are incredibly difficult to do and will be for some time to come.

UK death registrations data is the fastest, most frequent and most in depth than any other stats agency.

1/n

But death registrations data is what will eventually allow us to compare

e.g. ISTAT (Italian stats agency) yesterday brought out data for deaths in March. It showed 25k excess deaths and almost double those attributed to COVID previously

We've just reported up to 24 April

2/n

He also confirms that of those who have been recorded as dying of Covid 19. 85% of them actually died from the disease. As this early days, the information is inaccurate it is likely imo to get rounded down. As we have been woeful in comparison to Germany in determinang true cause of death.

After reading his posts they are based on facts they do not have an agenda and keep to the point. It's realy baffling why so many people would sooner read a journalists prediction. Which is been pulled from the ons results Why not just read the ONS? 

Edited by Bazzanotsogreat

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I am willing to consider, although with caution, that this virus is far more virulent than we are being told.  Similarly, and also with caution, I am willing to consider that the position is far worse than we are being told.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Bazzanotsogreat said:

THe head of the ONS nick stripe

Lots of comment about the UK having the highest death toll in Europe. International comparisons are incredibly difficult to do and will be for some time to come.

UK death registrations data is the fastest, most frequent and most in depth than any other stats agency.

1/n

But death registrations data is what will eventually allow us to compare

e.g. ISTAT (Italian stats agency) yesterday brought out data for deaths in March. It showed 25k excess deaths and almost double those attributed to COVID previously

We've just reported up to 24 April

2/n

He also confirms that of those who have been recorded as dying of Covid 19. 85% of them actually died from the disease. As this early days, the information is inaccurate it is likely imo to get rounded down. As we have been woeful in comparison to Germany in determinang true cause of death.

After reading his posts they are based on facts they do not have an agenda and keep to the point. It's realy baffling why so many people would sooner read a journalists prediction. Which is been pulled from the ons results Why not just read the ONS? 

Bunkem,  you should read the foreword paragraph 6 on Dame Diedre Hinds 2009 Flu report for the government.  

Not prepared but forewarned by lots of learned people. Just been on newsnight calling the government slow and unprepared despite having plenty of notice.

 

the2009influenzapandemic-review.pdf

Edited by Sparks Rover

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

Bunkem,  you should read the foreword paragraph 6 on Dame Diedre Hinds 2009 Flu report for the government.  

Not prepared but forewarned by lots of learned people. Just been on newsnight calling the government slow and unprepared despite having plenty of notice.

 

the2009influenzapandemic-review.pdf

Its actually Bunkum - Copyright den 2012'ish

Edited by Gav

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Posted (edited)

Hancock rightly given a hammering on HIGNFY tonight - the video of him criticising Labour health minister and A&E doctor Rosena Allin-Khan in the Commons showing him for the lying swine he is.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-health-secretary-criticises-tone-of-labour-mp-and-a-e-doctor-rosena-allin-khan-11983649

Who the F does Hancock think he is, a low grade here-today gone-tomorrow politician lecturing a senior healthcare professional when she asked a perfectly reasonable question in a perfectly reasonable manner? 

 

 

Edited by jim mk2

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Posted (edited)
The Boris cheerleading press went into a wholly predictable "lockdown is over" frenzy yesterday after Johnson's signalling about Sunday.
 
Unlike Trump, Johnson rowed back which is good.
Edited by philipl

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More bad news for the NHS coronavirus tracing app which is shaping up to be a scandal as big as PPE and  herd immunity.

Parliamentary Committee on Human Rights says it is "not reassured" the app protects privacy, and that if the app doesn't prove effective, the level of data gathered may actually break the law.

Then add to that the nepotism involved in selecting the contractor.

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There is a detailed examination of how Britain ended up unprepared in the FT this morning.

Key paragraphs are:

image.png.5174782b4b8ea6c69e6f01136fea1130.png  

image.png.9bcd8c445d74e86605f46413ba51e7a7.png

image.png.8f66e139da6456e974ef7b3cb8736237.png 

image.png.d975b468392e370541a85a73233824db.png 

image.png.78217fed9e5afb09b1c832a1dc0b6c53.png

image.png.1d7ffe24bb64d0493575a675f4b914e8.png 

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9 hours ago, DanLad said:

I am willing to consider, although with caution, that this virus is far more virulent than we are being told.  Similarly, and also with caution, I am willing to consider that the position is far worse than we are being told.

I believe quite the opposite 

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32 minutes ago, philipl said:

 

image.png.d975b468392e370541a85a73233824db.png 

Genuine question  does anyone know why preparations for flu is different to covid? I understand they are a different virus but in terms of how they spread, symptoms etc surely the preparations are very similar? 

I used to think it was a politicians grasping at straws answer but now a professor of medicine is saying it so I'm genuinely curious. 

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15 hours ago, jim mk2 said:

"All the data we are looking at shows the success of social distancing"

Would that be the data that shows the highest number of deaths in Europe?

Ian Diamond and Boris Johnson must think the public are stupid if they want us to think this catastrophic failure has been a "success". 

Jacinda Ardern,  "I will not tolerate tens of thousands New Zealanders dying to gain herd immunity before a vaccine."

Sir Patrick Vallance:, "20,000 deaths would be a good outcome for the UK"

We are at 30,000+ and growing. What a 'success' 

 

This highlights our utter failure from start to finish. 

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The difference betrween a NZ prime minister putting the public health first and a UK prime minister hiding behind pseudo-scientifc "herd immunity" mumbo-jumbo when in reality it was corporate billionaires and city speculators telling Johnson not to lock down because of the damage it would wreak on their businesses and profits. 

Working people have always been exploited so if a few tens of thousands died what would it matter to them ?

 

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5 hours ago, philipl said:

More bad news for the NHS coronavirus tracing app which is shaping up to be a scandal as big as PPE and  herd immunity.

Parliamentary Committee on Human Rights says it is "not reassured" the app protects privacy, and that if the app doesn't prove effective, the level of data gathered may actually break the law.

Then add to that the nepotism involved in selecting the contractor.

Another huge cock-up in the making

The UK has  wasted a huge number of critical weeks building an app that both Apple and Google publicly said right at the start would not work due to inherent flaws in the model proposed. 

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5 hours ago, philipl said:

More bad news for the NHS coronavirus tracing app which is shaping up to be a scandal as big as PPE and  herd immunity.

Parliamentary Committee on Human Rights says it is "not reassured" the app protects privacy, and that if the app doesn't prove effective, the level of data gathered may actually break the law.

Then add to that the nepotism involved in selecting the contractor.

Large portions of the population will gladly handover all sorts of data to allow them to play candy crush. It's no excuse for poor security in the app but I'm predicting there could be a bit of hypocritical outrage at this one (not suggesting you are one of them)

Also i wonder how much data it needs to collect? Surely very basic contact details. Give each user a unique reference number and then track location. Then with the location data there is surely a lot of useless data that can be instantly discarded or maybe not even recorded. If I go out and my app detects another phone close by only then should it start sending my location. Then after X days when neither person reports symptoms data is deleted. Its surely a case of data collection / retention policies rather than technical issues? 

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So to summarise:

Highest death toll in Europe (or one of). 

Perhaps more significantly a target of under 20k deaths missed by miles. 

A PPE crisis taking weeks to get up to speed with. 

Incidents regarding PPE such as "not being emailed" over the EU procurement scheme and the Turkey PPE fiasco. 

Being far too late with testing. 

Setting a testing target and then only getting it due to statistical manipulation, before constantly missing that target. Then adding in another overly ambitious target of double that number. 

The care home crisis and lack of PPE/thought for carers. 

The premature lockdown is ending announcements from the PM. 

The delay in going into lockdown. 

Shutting down of any criticism. 

Am sure I may have missed a few things but when we consider all this how can anyone say they are doing a good job? 

Mind you if the government keeps throwing the word. success into each briefing I am sure that will be the accepted narrative. 

There were always going to be mistakes, and no government is infallible, but there just seem to be far too many to be par for the course, even in the challenging circumstances of a pandemic. 

 

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1 hour ago, Sparks Rover said:

Jacinda Ardern,  "I will not tolerate tens of thousands New Zealanders dying to gain herd immunity before a vaccine."

Sir Patrick Vallance:, "20,000 deaths would be a good outcome for the UK"

We are at 30,000+ and growing. What a 'success' 

 

This highlights our utter failure from start to finish. 

I was waiting for NZ to creep into this conversation. NZ Population 4.8 million, UK 66 million. NZ area is around 20% larger

NZ is possibly better placed that any nation in the world to fight coronavirus as social distancing is so much easier for them. There cities are relatively small and density in their cities makes it easier to social distance. 

NZ economy is also not commerce and finance based. They are blessed with lots of fertile land and export lots of products. In this country we don't the ability to close the borders for sustained periods. NZ can be self sufficient for a long period both economically and in terms of foods. We are somewhat the opposite due to the overpopulation of our Isles and over reliance on imports and international commerece

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

Working people have always been exploited so if a few tens of thousands died what would it matter to them ?

 

The party of working people is now the Conservative Party Jim and has been for many many years now, killing off tens of thousands of them simply makes no sense at all, they're Tory voters.

Sadly the days of the Labour party supporting the working man/woman have long gone in many peoples eyes.

Edited by Gav

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7 minutes ago, Bazzanotsogreat said:

I was waiting for NZ to creep into this conversation. NZ Population 4.8 million, UK 66 million. NZ area is around 20% larger

NZ is possibly better placed that any nation in the world to fight coronavirus as social distancing is so much easier for them. There cities are relatively small and density in their cities makes it easier to social distance. 

NZ economy is also not commerce and finance based. They are blessed with lots of fertile land and export lots of products. In this country we don't the ability to close the borders for sustained periods. NZ can be self sufficient for a long period both economically and in terms of foods. We are somewhat the opposite due to the overpopulation of our Isles and over reliance on imports and international commerece

I find nz a ludicrous comparison to anything . Having lived there the jokes in flight of the conchords so close to the truth . Eg toothbrush fence 

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15 minutes ago, Bazzanotsogreat said:

I was waiting for NZ to creep into this conversation. NZ Population 4.8 million, UK 66 million. NZ area is around 20% larger

NZ is possibly better placed that any nation in the world to fight coronavirus as social distancing is so much easier for them. There cities are relatively small and density in their cities makes it easier to social distance. 

NZ economy is also not commerce and finance based. They are blessed with lots of fertile land and export lots of products. In this country we don't the ability to close the borders for sustained periods. NZ can be self sufficient for a long period both economically and in terms of foods. We are somewhat the opposite due to the overpopulation of our Isles and over reliance on imports and international commerece

Perhaps Australia might be a better comparison banning all international and interstate flights they cracked down on this quickly and are now emerging on the other side. Are we expected to accept around 500 deaths a day moving forward as having to be normal to allow flights to continue into the country with resultant risk of importation which is clearly demonstrated as a driver of this. You would have expected after seven weeks of a lockdown more significant progress would have been made in reducing the death toll

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2 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

 

Sir Patrick Vallance:, "20,000 deaths would be a good outcome for the UK"

 

And what was the worst outcome if we didnt bring in the lockdown measures, social distancing rules and other things? Plus Bazzanotsogreat has posted a number of different things which would affect our death rate more severely than other countries. 

Wasnt 500,000 deaths?

  1 hour ago, RoverDom said:

Large portions of the population will gladly handover all sorts of data to allow them to play candy crush. It's no excuse for poor security in the app but I'm predicting there could be a bit of hypocritical outrage at this one (not suggesting you are one of them)

 

The NHS already has my details as I used the MyGP app for doctors appointments and Pharmacy orders. Plus my hospital. So there is no difference in my opinion. 

  41 minutes ago, Gav said:

The party of working people is now the Conservative Party Jim and has been for many many years now, killing off tens of thousands of them simply makes no sense at all, they're Tory voters.

Sadly the days of the Labour party supporting the working man/woman have long gone in many peoples eyes.

You are correct Gav. 

The current government has protect jobs with the furlough system which is a good success. Loans and grants for small and medium businesses. 

 

 

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I would say its absolutely obvious that UK made 3 huge errors

-Failed to adequately stockpile PPE and prepare an effective pandemic response 

-Chose a very poor testing strategy (only using 2 PHE labs) and failed to ramp up testing anywhere near quick enough until late March / April

- Went into lockdown 2 weeks too late. 

All of those are clear errors easily visible in the data, and will be amongst the conclusions of the (I hope) inevitable Public Inquiry. 

What isn't clear yet is if UK is the worst in Europe on deaths. It's quite possible under reporting means Italy or Spain will end uahead. But it certainly seems like we will be right at the top of the table. We could have been on a similar footing to Germany if we had got the above 3 items right, with the testing by far the most important piece.

I'm not particularly interested in apportioning blame. What I do want is this situation, or similar situations, not happening again, and that does require proper sustained investment in public services and preparedness.

 

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1 minute ago, joey_big_nose said:

 

I'm not particularly interested in apportioning blame. What I do want is this situation, or similar situations, not happening again, and that does require proper sustained investment in public services and preparedness.

 

Bang on. 

Some people will want an inquiry that concludes e.g. PPE was inadequate, sack hancock, bash the tories, job done. What I'm more interested in is the changes to infrastructure that means we can quickly ramp up procurement and distribution of PPE in the event of another pandemic. 

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