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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, EgyptianPete said:

Sorry i should have added mainly Labour councils are stopping kids from going to school, all getting too political now.

Lancashire County Council is conservative for one, I think you'll find its about safety not politics mostly Pete, but I do take the point.

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/18479166.coronavirus-county-council-changes-advice-schools-saying-its-not-safe-open-yet/ 

Edited by Gav

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7 minutes ago, EgyptianPete said:

Gav, some scientists are saying its best to be outside as the virus like closed areas, which is exactly what lockdown is, staying in enclosed spaces, track and trace will help immensely if they can get it right.

I think most of your posts are wildlt inaccurate, especially the education one but this post seems to have some bigger holes in. 

Lockdown is staying away from other people, lockdown on your own/in your household, therefore minimal risks to passing on the disease. This means limited transmission. 

Non lockdown means meeting other people and whilst the risks are lower being outside, there are more people to transmit the disease across. 

Transmission factors include being in close quarters with people but also people to pass it on to. Without both it can't transmit. And mingling does increase the chances of the spread much more. 

For example if I got it in lockdown only my household would have got it. If i'm not in lockdown I have more people I could pass it onto. 

Your enclosed spaces point isn't totally invalid though. Imagine being in close quarters with say 15 other people who could all transmit it to their households even if they themselves aren't as much at risk. Plus say the couple of professionals who are with them at the time.

I agree with you on this point that lots of people in a confined area isn't good, hence why schools shouldn't be open. But you say it's political? Bit of a contradiction given the science you are using strongly suggests schools shouldn't be back. 

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13 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

No, everybody dies, eventually. . At the moment too many people are dying before their time.

I’m not convinced that’s exactly the case , I don’t know for sure not will I ever . 
It’s a strange game we started playing without ever asking to 

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16 minutes ago, den said:

He’s not following anyone’s advice now from what I see.

he said throughout that he’d relax restrictions as the threat level fell - which he isn’t doing. Sage members saying it’s too early. Who’s advice is he following Cummings?

The SAGE committee has around 50 members I believe, but if one things is clear in all of this the scientists can't agree if its night or day mostly!

But the facts as we have them today are, the R number is between 0.7 and 0.9 - Thats in the danger zone for me, unlocking is a mistake, I won't be doing so. 

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Just now, Inglorious basturk said:

I’m not convinced that’s exactly the case , I don’t know for sure not will I ever . 
It’s a strange game we started playing without ever asking to 

You'll know when you look at the average figure for deaths in this period over say the last five or ten years and then compare that figure with the deaths over the same period this year.

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4 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

You'll know when you look at the average figure for deaths in this period over say the last five or ten years and then compare that figure with the deaths over the same period this year.

Well maybe retrospectively that could be true but at the moment there is a lot of other things to look at . There are too many questions 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Gav said:

The SAGE committee has around 50 members I believe, but if one things is clear in all of this the scientists can't agree if its night or day mostly!

But the facts as we have them today are, the R number is between 0.7 and 0.9 - Thats in the danger zone for me, unlocking is a mistake, I won't be doing so. 

I agree Gav. That just illustrates even more that the govts  contiunal references to following the science is just a way of transferring any wrong decisions elsewhere. There isn’t a consensus among scientists and never has been. The final decisions, as hard as it is, belong to the government.

Johnson is going out on a limb now, I’m not sure he’s got the backing of anyone.

Edited by den

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7 minutes ago, Gav said:

The SAGE committee has around 50 members I believe, but if one things is clear in all of this the scientists can't agree if its night or day mostly!

But the facts as we have them today are, the R number is between 0.7 and 0.9 - Thats in the danger zone for me, unlocking is a mistake, I won't be doing so. 

Thing is , the r number , that’s their number . It could be whatever they bloody like 

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This is from the Professor of Public Health at Edinburgh University.

Note the dates. 

Mongolia locked down 16 January and has had no local transmission and no deaths.

Britain...

For me, the pivotal moment was reading Jan 24th Lancet paper on clinical profile of patients infected with #SARSCoV2 (this was not just the flu). By Jan 16th, clear it would become a global problem. All pointed to need to treat COVID-19 like SARS or MERS event.

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23 minutes ago, philipl said:

This kind of post really gets me wound up, using a former gov adviser,  all his advice is in retrospect, and C4 which is totally anti government, we can all do this,  why did we allow chelthham why did we allow Liverpool to play their euro cup match, why did we allow people to fly in, and it goes on and on and on. We are where we are, and need to be positive moving forward and not keep harboring on with could have should have.

And you will definatley not like this last comment but the people like this guy above is totally against Brexit and the last week has shown what lengths they will go to to try and stop it happening. 

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3 hours ago, den said:

Yep, 3 SAGE scientists prepared to speak out. 3 reasons why the easing of restrictions is very dangerous....

1) the R number is only just below 1.

2) We are still having around 8000 new infections every day in England alone and that’s in the community. There are infections in other places ie care homes that aren’t included.

3)  track and trace has only been in place for 2 days and is unproven.

As I posted earlier add on the fact that the threat level won’t be reduced even though Johnson said it would. So, try to work out what Johnson is up to. It might be that he’s feeling public support is slipping and he’s trying  to get people behind him - or maybe the pressure from Sunak is pushing his decision making, but it looks to me that he’s playing a very dangerous game. As one of the SAGE scientists says today, he’s risking people’s lives.

 

3 scientists from nearly 60 people on main Sage committee then you have other sub groups. Is it a really surprise that they cant agree and different opinion. 

Johnson is no win situation in this situation. The country need the economy to get going away whilst we want the infection rate down and new cases down. Not an easy situation. One I wouldn't want to be in. 

2 hours ago, Gav said:

As I mentioned yesterday the government have been pretty consistent on the lock down advice, this despite pressures from business/back benchers to open up sooner. We are following most other countries in Europe with our timelines and we are following the SAGE advice, which was to keep the R under 1, I believe it currently stands at 0.7 -  0.9. Some scientists believe its even lowers outside of hospitals, more like 0.5 in the community but thats slicing and dicing the data and not confirmed or the way its calculated routinely. 

All that said I won't be rushing out on Monday to have BBQ's with family, I won't be rushing to shops to buy cr@p that can wait and I'll continue to live my life the way I have been doing since the lock down came into effect.

I despair for people who are living in crowded accommodation with no outdoor space, its must be horrendous, but the message for me is you stay in lock down until that R rate goes down still further, use your common sense, but I fear that will fall of deaf ears and judging by the traffic yesterday whilst going to pickup the weekly shop, it already has done.

MP's like Iain Duncan Smith and Greg Clark want Johnson to move on the 2 metre social distancing guideline. He hasn't so far. 

Yes I posted a link yesterday about scientists saying the R rate is like 0.5 outside Care Homes and Hospitals. I would say in my local area the R rate is even lower. The official Covid-19 deaths from the ONS is 45 people. 

I wont be rushing outside my house or garden even tho the lockdown has been slight adjustable. Went to town centre today buying some fresh veg and fruit plus some Chicken kebabs from butchers. Everyone is following the social distancing rules and the directions you must follow. Good to see this morning. 

2 hours ago, den said:

He’s not following anyone’s advice now from what I see.

he said throughout that he’d relax restrictions as the threat level fell - which he isn’t doing. Sage members saying it’s too early. 

but Den, we don't know what all the members have said on the committee. Would you really expect 60 people agree? Some might agree with Unlocking and some wont. 

1 hour ago, Gav said:

The SAGE committee has around 50 members I believe, but if one things is clear in all of this the scientists can't agree if its night or day mostly!

But the facts as we have them today are, the R number is between 0.7 and 0.9 - Thats in the danger zone for me, unlocking is a mistake, I won't be doing so. 

Think the sage committee is nearly 60 members so I would expect them not to always agree. do you agree Gav?

 

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24 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

3 scientists from nearly 60 people on main Sage committee then you have other sub groups. Is it a really surprise that they cant agree and different opinion. 

MP's like Iain Duncan Smith and Greg Clark want Johnson to move on the 2 metre social distancing guideline. He hasn't so far. 

Yes I posted a link yesterday about scientists saying the R rate is like 0.5 outside Care Homes and Hospitals. I would say in my local area the R rate is even lower. The official Covid-19 deaths from the ONS is 45 people. 

I wont be rushing outside my house or garden even tho the lockdown has been slight adjustable. Went to town centre today buying some fresh veg and fruit plus some Chicken kebabs from butchers. Everyone is following the social distancing rules and the directions you must follow. Good to see this morning. 

Think the sage committee is nearly 60 members so I would expect them not to always agree. do you agree Gav?

 

IDS wanted to open weeks ago and he wasn't alone on the Tory back benches, Boris has done well to keep us closed down for as long as he has in my book. 

The SAGE committee won't agree on everything chaddy thats for sure, but it is one of the first times sitting members have made their feelings public, they must feel very strongly about it. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, philipl said:

This is from the Professor of Public Health at Edinburgh University.

Note the dates. 

Mongolia locked down 16 January and has had no local transmission and no deaths.

Britain...

For me, the pivotal moment was reading Jan 24th Lancet paper on clinical profile of patients infected with #SARSCoV2 (this was not just the flu). By Jan 16th, clear it would become a global problem. All pointed to need to treat COVID-19 like SARS or MERS event.

Pity the WHO and China tried to keep it a secret. Had either been open and transparent thousands of lives could have been saved.

Edited by Gav

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Posted (edited)

@chaddyrovers good to see you’ve finally moved from defending everything the govt did because “they were following the science “. 
as some of us always argued, scientists are divided on the direction to go. However the government holds the sole responsibility for the decisions it takes.

The advice from scientists and governments that had experienced this pandemic around the world before we did, was “test, test, test and lock down immediately. Most of them did that and are in good positions now. 
johnson didn’t do that. He was talking about our options (like taking the hit), going around bragging about shaking hands with people and allowing mass gatherings.

we have paid for that with 64,000 deaths and counting.

BYW, there are more than three sage scientists speaking out and plenty of scientists outside sage doing the same 

Edited by den

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16 minutes ago, Gav said:

Pity the WHO and China tried to keep it a secret. Had either been open and transparent thousands of lives could have been saved.

Spot on!

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1 hour ago, chaddyrovers said:

Yes I posted a link yesterday about scientists saying the R rate is like 0.5 outside Care Homes and Hospitals. I would say in my local area the R rate is even lower.

Do you live in Mongolia,  Chaddy?

What makes your area so special?

Cheers

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Gav said:

Pity the WHO and China tried to keep it a secret. Had either been open and transparent thousands of lives could have been saved.

The Lancet is not China Daily.

That post is utterly irrelevant- the Chinese had RNA sequenced it and made the findings open-sourced in early January and that is what The Lancet papers were based upon. 

In other words the science was there and the scientific advisors the UK Government relied on were either wrong or nobbled.

Some countries got it right. As usual these days, the UK screwed up.

Edited by philipl

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1 minute ago, philipl said:

The Lancet is not China Daily.

That post is utterly irrelevant- the Chinese had RNA sequenced it and made the findings open-sourced in early January and that is what The Lancet papers were based upon. 

If China and WTO had told the world in November/December nobody would have needed to rely on an article in The Lancet, that’s my point. 

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31 minutes ago, Gav said:

IDS wanted to open weeks ago and he wasn't alone on the Tory back benches, Boris has done well to keep us closed down for as long as he has in my book. 

The SAGE committee won't agree on everything chaddy thats for sure, but it is one of the first times sitting members have made their feelings public, they must feel very strongly about it. 

Johnson needs to keep the 2 metre guidelines

We had other SAGE committee members over the last couple 

16 minutes ago, den said:

@chaddyrovers good to see you’ve finally moved from defending everything the govt did because “they were following the science “. 
as some of us always argued, scientists are divided on the direction to go. However the government holds the sole responsibility for the decisions it takes.

The advice from scientists and governments that had experienced this pandemic around the world before we did, was “test, test, test and lock down immediately. Most of them did that and are in good positions now. 
johnson didn’t do that. He was talking about our options (like taking the hit), going around bragging about shaking hands with people and allowing mass gatherings.

 

Maybe some scientists think one way and other. I wouldn't expect everyone to agree. 

We didnt have test centres or facilities at the start. Why would we? We never had anything this before. South Korea and China have experiences over there and more stricter rules on lockdown than we have. People in this country arent used to lockdown so I think the majority of country as adhere to the lock down rules and guidelines 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

Do you live in Mongolia,  Chaddy?

What makes your area so special?

Cheers

Only 45 deaths in the Hyndburn area according to Office of National Statistics. Plus people following the guidelines and social distancing when I've been out. 

Edited by chaddyrovers

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5 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Johnson needs to keep the 2 metre guidelines

We had other SAGE committee members over the last couple 

Maybe some scientists think one way and other. I wouldn't expect everyone to agree. 

We didnt have test centres or facilities at the start. Why would we? We never had anything this before. South Korea and China have experiences over there and more stricter rules on lockdown than we have. People in this country arent used to lockdown so I think the majority of country as adhere to the lock down rules and guidelines 

What’s happening now is that scientists are prepared to go public.

its obvious that they too are losing/have lost confidence.

no wonder when Johnson is now ignoring them.

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14 minutes ago, Gav said:

If China and WTO had told the world in November/December nobody would have needed to rely on an article in The Lancet, that’s my point. 

Nobody is denying that 28 December to 12 January were two critically lost weeks caused by Chinese cover up.

From that point on the World was alerted by China.

The first known case was in Wuhan on 1 December

The first Wuhan hospital admission was 16 December

The first lab analysis in Wuhan was 24 December

Wuhan alerted the Chinese Government 31 December who informed the WHO the same day.

The Lancet is the official journal of British Medicine and as such is the official vehicle through which medical scientists communicate. Articles are peer-reviewed and so this is where British science and Civil Service look for authoritive assessments and guidance. The European Commission liberally make use of it too and Governments around the world acted on its findings. 

The British Government didn't.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Only 45 deaths in the Hyndburn area according to Office of National Statistics. Plus people following the guidelines and social distancing when I've been out. 

There is a large Asian part of Accrington  from what I remember,  is that the case still.  ?  

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