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Fiddling with the numbers by creative accounting.

As before, the only reliable figure is excess deaths which is currently more than 65,000.

World beating dishonesty

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7 hours ago, philipl said:

Having a very close affinity with the Baltic States I am sticking to my guns on this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Museum_of_Occupations_and_Freedom_Fights

My ex-wife was imprisoned there.

i don't know what we're meant to be disagreeing about Philip! I'm not denying the Baltic states wanted to join western groupings and did so of their own volition. I'm talking about the way and when of it and promises broken.

If Russia hadn't been humiliated and had been assisted economically and politically through that transition period to democracy then the world would now be a better and safer place.

But we did it the triumphalist way and look where its got us.

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7 hours ago, Ewood Ace said:

Yes of course just before Russia was about to host the biggest sporting event in the world where the eyes of the world would be on Russia. President Putin decided to try to kill a swapped spy in Salisbury, who no one had ever heard of and who had been swapped a full 8 years previous.

 

That's totally circumstantial though. Perhaps good old ex-KGB man Putin is trying the double bluff on us---cunning plan eh?

Whatever, it falls far short of the level of proof you've been demanding of others.

The only way to truly test the matter is for there to be a trial but those 2 will never be seen anywhere again will they? Couple of bunglers probably getting their "reward".

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Posted (edited)

The fact that they were traced and identified, and their targets survived, suggests that their 'reward' might not be so pleasant.

 

 

EDIT: A re-read suggests we're making the same point...

Edited by Dreyski

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8 hours ago, Mike E said:

But there hasn't been 28 days in August yet? Or am I being thick?

So someone who died yesterday, if their Covid test was more than 28 days ago e.g. June, they wouldn't be classed as a covid death but if their covid test was 5 days ago it would be. 

8 hours ago, jim mk2 said:

As before, the only reliable figure is excess deaths which is currently more than 65,000.

Only if the question is what's the best way to bash the government for its incompetence over the past few months. 

I've not seen the excess deaths for a few weeks but last time I checked they were back to normal (or even negative?). So by your logic (and a few others on here) with that being the only figure that matters we should just get back to normal and crack on.

Theres no perfect one size fits all number in all this, we need a range of indicators as they're all flawed in some way. 

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Just now, RoverDom said:

So someone who died yesterday, if their Covid test was more than 28 days ago e.g. June, they wouldn't be classed as a covid death but if their covid test was 5 days ago it would be. 

Only if the question is what's the best way to bash the government for its incompetence over the past few months. 

I've not seen the excess deaths for a few weeks but last time I checked they were back to normal (or even negative?). So by your logic (and a few others on here) with that being the only figure that matters we should just get back to normal and crack on.

Theres no perfect one size fits all number in all this, we need a range of indicators as they're all flawed in some way. 

Ah makes sense.

I'd ask though, if someone's problems are known to be caused/triggered by Covid-19, but they die more than 28 days after their positive test, would they count?

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16 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

 

I've not seen the excess deaths for a few weeks but last time I checked they were back to normal (or even negative?). So by your logic (and a few others on here) with that being the only figure that matters we should just get back to normal and crack on.

Theres no perfect one size fits all number in all this, we need a range of indicators as they're all flawed in some way. 

There’s a huge lack of understanding there.

The best method of calculating deaths is excess deaths. As I showed earlier, the governments figures missed 20,000 deaths. 

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Excess deaths shows the deaths associated with the duration of the pandemic. It doesn't necessarily tell us the actual true figure of Covid-19 related deaths. It is the best method of calculating the effect Covid-19 had on our health, but not the mortality rate associated with Covid-19.

Been repeated until some of us are blue in the face that line.

Bottom line is though that 65k died and are continuing to die because of Covid-19, whether it be through the coronavirus itself or because of a lack of access to health services or whatever.

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24 minutes ago, den said:

There’s a huge lack of understanding there.

The best method of calculating deaths is excess deaths. As I showed earlier, the governments figures missed 20,000 deaths. 

Where? I understand there has been 65k excess deaths. But week on week the number of deaths had now reduced back down and was broadly inline with the 5 year average (as I said I've not looked at it for a few weeks so this may have changed). 

Besides the excess deaths figure is soon going to become skewed with a whole host of other factors as a result if NHS focus being elsewhere. 

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I don't think it's unreasonable to consider the deaths that have almost certainly been caused by the fact the NHS has put the treatment of other serious illnesses on the back burner for the last 5 months.

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16 hours ago, Dreyski said:

image.thumb.png.91494e6631fed727ebb63ad3863103ca.png

 

image.png.ee429ebc9954f40bc8fe9734d91ba4cd.png

 

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/12/07/fsb-colonel-girkin-tells-details-of-how-russia-invaded-ukraine-in-twice-censored-interview/

 

I'm quite interested in your view on the Belarussian situation, given there are reports the police are attacking Russian news crews, and Lukashenko's fractious relationship with Putin.

With all due respect that aerial photograph could have come from almost anywhere.

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8 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

I don't think it's unreasonable to consider the deaths that have almost certainly been caused by the fact the NHS has put the treatment of other serious illnesses on the back burner for the last 5 months.

When assessing the overall impact of the virus and how well the government has responded then absolutely I'd agree.

But in terms of, is it safe yet can we come outside, then the fact that there MAY be people at home dying of untreated cancer is irrelevant. 

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2 hours ago, RoverDom said:

Theres no perfect one size fits all number in all this, we need a range of indicators as they're all flawed in some way. 

Excess deaths would seem the best indicator by far. It covers those who die directly from the virus and those who are indirectly affected.

Can't see any argument against it.

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22 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

 the fact that there MAY be people at home dying of untreated cancer is irrelevant. 

If there are more people dying of cancer than normal, at home or anywhere else, then they are indirect victims of coronavirus.

Same goes for anyone who dies because the hospital system couldn't provide normal service during a Coronavirus pandemic.

And that's how they should be counted.

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Posted (edited)

So we're saying that if 10,000 people died this week of cancer that wouldnt normally have died, then we should go into lockdown to prevent the spread of covid19? 

 

Excess deaths IS the best indicator for the overall impact of the virus. It however does not answer every single question you may have.

Edited by RoverDom

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If 10000 people died of cancer who wouldn't normally have died, then the reason they died is Coronavirus (as I pointed out above).

So what is the response? Surely to take the measures necessary to combat Coronavirus? Yes?

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25 minutes ago, 47er said:

If 10000 people died of cancer who wouldn't normally have died, then the reason they died is Coronavirus (as I pointed out above).

So what is the response? Surely to take the measures necessary to combat Coronavirus? Yes?

Hypothetically 10,000 die of cancer and 5 die of covid. The risk of dying of covid is therefore relatively low and we should therefore prioritise getting the cancer crisis under control. 

However using the "excess deaths is the only important figure" methodology 10,005 people have died because of coronvirus let's lockdown for even longer and potentially make the situation worse. 

We absolutely cant use excess deaths in isolation. 

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4 hours ago, Mike E said:

Ah makes sense.

I'd ask though, if someone's problems are known to be caused/triggered by Covid-19, but they die more than 28 days after their positive test, would they count?

I'm not sure is the honest answer, is it  not the case that if you're that bad you're constantly being retested? In which case itd be unlikely to go more than 28 days? 

I think the flip side is that those who died within 28 days may have been run over crossing the road coming out of the test centre so I think there will be inaccuracies both ways, not a clue whether it balances out mind. 

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2 hours ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

I don't think it's unreasonable to consider the deaths that have almost certainly been caused by the fact the NHS has put the treatment of other serious illnesses on the back burner for the last 5 months.

Just to be clear , you don’t mean that you think those deaths are Covid deaths ? Or am I reading this wrong ?

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1 hour ago, 47er said:

If 10000 people died of cancer who wouldn't normally have died, then the reason they died is Coronavirus (as I pointed out above).

So what is the response? Surely to take the measures necessary to combat Coronavirus? Yes?

If you die of cancer you die of cancer end of 

if Covid wasn’t a thing and someone’s cancer treatment was delayed and they subsequently died of cancer it would be a cancer death . 
 

excess death , another concept that has been put out there in the last 12 months as if it’s always been something we have been experts on but really it’s just used to suit an argument 

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4 hours ago, RoverDom said:

Only if the question is what's the best way to bash the government for its incompetence over the past few months. 

 

Johnson proudly bragged at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak that he was going to show the silly Johnny Foreigners a thing or two about crisis management, by completely ignoring the global pandemic protocols, allowing the virus to spread, and trying to continue business as usual, leading to the UK having the worst death toll in Europe and the worst economic damage.

Many people think the government should be accountable for this shitshow. The Tory cultists don't. 

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5 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

Johnson proudly bragged at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak that he was going to show the silly Johnny Foreigners a thing or two about crisis management, by completely ignoring the global pandemic protocols, allowing the virus to spread, and trying to continue business as usual, leading to the UK having the worst death toll in Europe and the worst economic damage.

Many people think the government should be accountable for this shitshow. The Tory cultists don't. 

Totally agree and they should be held to account and the excess death figure does that perfectly. 

But the data doesnt exist purely to hold Johnson to account. It has some other uses. 

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The only thing that matters in terms of Covid19 today is the infection rates across the country, people should stick to guidelines, use your brain and avoid crowds, its the only way the infection rate will come down and lockdown restrictions relaxed. 

In Blackburn with Darwen the rate has fallen from 83.5 to 73.5, with 110 new cases.

In Pendle, the rate has risen from 66.2 to 82.5, with 76 new cases and in Burnley the rate has risen from 29.2 to 45 with 40 new cases.

Oldham sees the highest rate, jumping from 62 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to August 2 to 104.6 in the seven days to August 9

Rochdale (up from 31 to 44.5, with 99 new cases)

Preston (up from 30 to 43.3, with 62 new cases)

Tameside (up from 28.3 to 38, with 86 new cases)

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34 minutes ago, Inglorious basturk said:

Just to be clear , you don’t mean that you think those deaths are Covid deaths ? Or am I reading this wrong ?

There will be people who will die in the future because their cancer diagnosis/treatment was delayed by 5 months because the NHS was re-directed to concentrate on the virus. This time last year their prognosis would have been much better because their diagnosis/treatment would have been more less right away.  Therefore although they may have cancer on the death certificate the virus dramatically reduced their chances of survival.

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