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27 minutes ago, Gav said:

Very stark message from Patrick Vallance:

UK could face 49,000 new cases a day by October 13th and 200 deaths a day by November if we continue down the same track. 

The virus is now doubling every 7 days, like we saw earlier in the year, and this isn’t regional, it’s on the increase across the country. 

Anything to do with reopening the schools?

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Do they still want us to get back to the workplace, travel on public transport and go in coffee shops? Thought not. So the unions were right all along and there were dangers in reopening schools

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4 minutes ago, 47er said:

Anything to do with reopening the schools?

Chris Whitty actually said we haven’t seen any increase in that age range at all.

 

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45 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

The politicians need to remember what the UK taxpayer footed in the 2008 financial crisis on the basis of the 'consequences of not bailing out the banks would be far worse than imaginable' or similar.

I think we were committed at one point to over £1 trillion, with losses running into the billions. Did the government ever make a profit on the shares they bought? Doubt it.

Slightly different scenario with the banks pledging to 'pay back' (if they do) but if money is there when their banker friends require it then it should be there for when the country genuinely needs a bailout. 

The population of the UK never caused the financial crisis, nor did they cause the pandemic, but as is always the case it seems as though the working man will pay the biggest price.

I think the government did make money on RBS but it was the exception rather than the rule.

The vast eye boggling increases we will see globally on national debts will change how people think of national debt fundamentally imo.

Those debts are never going to be repaid except by printing cash ("quantative easing" to use the euphemism) and everyone is going to ask "should we just do more of that?"

The key will be if we are printing cash we need to ensure it is creating and sustaining jobs that do useful things for the economy.

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Just now, Gav said:

Chris Whitty actually said we haven’t seen any increase in that age range at all.

 

Kids go back to school, parents go back to work? Travel by public transport? Sandwich at lunch time?

I'm just thinking aloud really---the timing could be just coincidental.

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5 minutes ago, 47er said:

Kids go back to school, parents go back to work? Travel by public transport? Sandwich at lunch time?

I'm just thinking aloud really---the timing could be just coincidental.

Cases are rising across the country, I'm sure thats no coincidence for the reasons you state above.

Universities are now back also, the age range that are most likely to flout the rules.

Winter will probably benefit the virus, its not weakened as some on twitter will have is believe. 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, Gav said:

Very stark message from Patrick Vallance:

UK could face 49,000 new cases a day by October 13th and 200 deaths a day by November if we continue down the same track. 

The virus is now doubling every 7 days, like we saw earlier in the year, and this isn’t regional, it’s on the increase across the country. 

Didnt watch the briefing but is this a worst case scenario they're presenting. 

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13 minutes ago, joey_big_nose said:

I think the government did make money on RBS but it was the exception rather than the rule.

The vast eye boggling increases we will see globally on national debts will change how people think of national debt fundamentally imo.

Those debts are never going to be repaid except by printing cash ("quantative easing" to use the euphemism) and everyone is going to ask "should we just do more of that?"

The key will be if we are printing cash we need to ensure it is creating and sustaining jobs that do useful things for the economy.

Isnt QE basically debt as well? I.e BOE prints money and buys government bonds. 

Read an article a few weeks ago saying  that the new school of thought is that the level of debt is maybe not that relevant as long as it's in your own currency and you can keep inflation under control. Haven't given it a huge amount of thought but you wonder if it's kicking the can down the road somewhat. 

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17 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

Didnt watch the briefing but is this a worst case scenario they're presenting. 

Its not presenting a worse case scenario, its using the data from the initial outbreak and looking at the current data modelling, that is again showing a doubling ever 7 days.

Hospital in patient cases since beginning of September have risen significantly, still only small numbers (200) but if we continue this trend every 7 days 400, 800, 1600 etc.

Flu usually kills around 7000, but in a bad year 20,000 and Covid19 is much more deadly than flu and we have no defence from it currently. 

 

Edited by Gav

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3 hours ago, philipl said:

I had a traumatic weekend when I was 21. 

Friday- told I had failed my medical but would have to wait to Monday to find out why

Saturday while trying to take my mind of things stepped on a wall paper scrape and went to hospital to get patched up

Sunday bitten by an Alsatian on the other ankle so back to A&E for tetanus jab

Monday back at the hospital again to have the report read to me  and was told I had a small TB scar on my lung, almost certainly inactive but needed a blood test to confirm and I would then be passed fit. 

Passed out (I guess relief at the news played a part) when they were taking blood. 

Came to shaking involuntary and looked up at six nurses giving me a good shaking. For a moment thought I'd died and gone to heaven! Then realised if I had gone to heaven they would be better looking...

I had to have a tooth out when I was about 18. I'd noticed the receptionist was a Marilyn Monroe look a like when I booked in. When I was sat in the chair she came in and sat down in a chair alongside my chair. As the guy put the gas mask on me and " Start counting down slowly from 10 " she hitched up her skirt and swivelled around and straddled me. All in one very quick movement ! I was crushed back into the chair by her body. I was desperately trying to stay awake but the gas won when I got to about 4 ! When I came around she was back behind the desk. I think it was to stop me thrashing around as he was pulling out my tooth.

I did consider going back to have another good tooth out, it would have been worth it !

Edited by Tyrone Shoelaces

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1 hour ago, RoverDom said:

Isnt QE basically debt as well? I.e BOE prints money and buys government bonds. 

Read an article a few weeks ago saying  that the new school of thought is that the level of debt is maybe not that relevant as long as it's in your own currency and you can keep inflation under control. Haven't given it a huge amount of thought but you wonder if it's kicking the can down the road somewhat. 

QE isn't debt because the government created the money. They buy back government debt with printed money.

On the second point that's something called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). It's a revolutionary recasting of Keynsian economics. No one really disputes the economic fundamentals of it, but many traditional economists do think what it asks for (big government intervention in the economy) is dangerous because government might spend irresponsibly beyond the capacity of the economy and drive up inflation. "The Deficit Myth'" by Stephanie Kelton is a good primer.

I would say one way or another we will find out as a few countries are bound to dabble with MMT to try and stimulate the economy in a COVID world.

I really think the whole way we think about economics is going to change. Really the point of economics is to most efficiently and effectively utilise labour and resources. When that breaks down, as we are seeing with COVID, radical options are bound to come onto the table.

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4 hours ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

The population of the UK never caused the financial crisis, nor did they cause the pandemic, but as is always the case it seems as though the working man will pay the biggest price.

It's always been the same. The poor take the worst of it. 

 

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11 minutes ago, broadsword said:

It's always been the same. The poor take the worst of it. 

 

The working poor especially.

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1 hour ago, LeftWinger said:

Except again, it doesnt really make sense. I understand you need it to happen, but to allow it makes yet again no sense if you're stopping other things.

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7 hours ago, Gav said:

The government need to get on and increase the furlough scheme whilst they're at it, Germany has increased if for 2yrs to protect workers and jobs.

The Tories never blinked first time around when it came to furlough, they need to stop listening to millionaire backbenchers and get it extended into New Year.

And who's going to pay for it long term?..you can damn well bet it won't be the Landed gentry and your Lords n Lady's.

Can the Country afford it?.....

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6 hours ago, Gav said:

Very stark message from Patrick Vallance:

UK could face 49,000 new cases a day by October 13th and 200 deaths a day by November if we continue down the same track. 

The virus is now doubling every 7 days, like we saw earlier in the year, and this isn’t regional, it’s on the increase across the country. 

You should’ve be on that stage today with those two numptys telling everyone the world was going to end unless we submit to the state controlling our every move. And it has nothing to do with schools opening again.

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40 minutes ago, gumboots said:

Except again, it doesnt really make sense. I understand you need it to happen, but to allow it makes yet again no sense if you're stopping other things.

I don’t care if it makes sense. I can’t be in two places at once.

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2 hours ago, Bohinen 22 said:

You should’ve be on that stage today with those two numptys telling everyone the world was going to end unless we submit to the state controlling our every move. And it has nothing to do with schools opening again.

Two numptys- one of the leading scientists in the country is a numpty. Okay then.

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20 minutes ago, Bohinen 22 said:

You should’ve be on that stage today with those two numptys telling everyone the world was going to end unless we submit to the state controlling our every move. And it has nothing to do with schools opening again.

As I said to Inglorious - you think it's fake?  businesses and govts doing all these measures and taking an economic hit - even draconian government's who are way ahead in control with no need for this - might suggest it is real and not a control issue. 

But excluding them as a reliable source what about all the scientists and healthcare people. Knowing a number of people across various strata of healthcare all of whom have been up close to the virus - I'm not sure on what grounds or evidence you say it doesn't exist or it's a mountain out of a molehill. It's clearly neither such case. 

Of course there are all sorts of questions on what measures are appropriate but to deny it or think it's a hoax - well, there's no evidence for that whatsoever. 

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1 hour ago, A Northern Horde... said:

And who's going to pay for it long term?..you can damn well bet it won't be the Landed gentry and your Lords n Lady's.

Can the Country afford it?.....

We either see millions join the dole queue and pay for it that way or we try to save people’s jobs and businesses. 

Either way we pay for it, I know which one I’d choose. 

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1 hour ago, Bohinen 22 said:

You should’ve be on that stage today with those two numptys.

I’d rather share a stage with Whitty and Vallance than with Bohinen, David Icke and Piers Corbyn :tu:

 

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1 hour ago, Blue blood said:

As I said to Inglorious - you think it's fake?  businesses and govts doing all these measures and taking an economic hit - even draconian government's who are way ahead in control with no need for this - might suggest it is real and not a control issue. 

But excluding them as a reliable source what about all the scientists and healthcare people. Knowing a number of people across various strata of healthcare all of whom have been up close to the virus - I'm not sure on what grounds or evidence you say it doesn't exist or it's a mountain out of a molehill. It's clearly neither such case. 

Of course there are all sorts of questions on what measures are appropriate but to deny it or think it's a hoax - well, there's no evidence for that whatsoever. 

When did I say hoax or denied it existed? This is what anyone who questions the draconian measures gets labelled, a covid denier. 
Just think it’s being manipulated and exploited to push a certain deep state agenda where our every move is controlled and tracked. There are seven times more people dying of flu than covid. The figures that the doomsday brothers trotted out today were way beyond the trajectory of Spain and France and way beyond worst case scenario. They want to frighten people. The vast majority of the mainstream media like the bbc are complicit. You can disagree and that’s fine. Put your mask on, stay inside and follow the rules. Meanwhile, the economy is going to sh!t, jobs are being lost, people are suffering mental illness, not able to see loved ones, people are being buried without their loved ones able to see it. For what? Smoking causes cancer but you can still buy cigarettes. Let people get on with their lives. 

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11 minutes ago, Gav said:

I’d rather share a stage with Whitty and Vallance than with Bohinen, David Icke and Piers Corbyn :tu:

 

Good to know.

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