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Montyburns

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2 hours ago, Inglorious basturk said:

Exactly this . I do think there is an element of conspiracy to it all and I suppose it’s fair discussion 

but that’s all it is so let’s just act together for each other and get things back to normal and get pathetic  things like final hurrahs at the pub out of our systems . It’s not a time for point scoring either 

I do think there is no element of conspiracy at all. I'm certain of it. Almost always cock-up.

Not like this is all that unexpected is it? You have live reptiles, wolves, monkeys and all the rest of the world's endangered species  in cages in a public meat market. 

Their blood inter-mingles when they are killed because there are little or no hygiene protocols. The virus has built and spread often via bats and from them to wild and domestic animals.

I agree we should all act together now but we should never forgive or forget where and why this happened. We had the warning with SARS and a further one with MERS but have done nothing to ensure it wouldn't happen again.

China is simply too powerful to criticise.

 

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11 minutes ago, Claytons Left Boot said:

The 11% figure is only based on the ‘Closed Cases,’ Mike and presumably only on those who have been tested. In reality, you could probably multiply the figure, of those who have it, by ten. Those people (my son is one) who have had the exact symptoms but have not been tested because they are simply at home isolating. That would bring the percentage down to around 0.5%.

Sorry, I don't ignore stats in favour of suppositions. Especially based on a number plucked from the air because you know an unconfirmed case.

Of the confirmed, closed cases, 11% have died.

I'm not going to pretend the mortality rate is randomly 20x lower than that.

Edited by Mike E

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11 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

But still totally annihilated the totally shyte Labour party by the largest majority in living memory. 

 

Meanwhile back to planet earth

Let's see what happens when the dust settles and the blame for allowing the countries vital services to fall into such a sorry state of repair gets apportioned. Churchill got thrown out on his ear because the electorate realised things had to change after the war. Carrying on with more of the same just wasn't going to happen. In my opinion the aftermath of this crisis will bring a similar change of mood in the country. The " Dog Eat Dog " style of modern Conservatism has brought us to this point, it's time it was thrown into the dustbin of history.

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5 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

Let's see what happens when the dust settles and the blame for allowing the countries vital services to fall into such a sorry state of repair gets apportioned. Churchill got thrown out on his ear because the electorate realised things had to change after the war. Carrying on with more of the same just wasn't going to happen. In my opinion the aftermath of this crisis will bring a similar change of mood in the country. The " Dog Eat Dog " style of modern Conservatism has brought us to this point, it's time it was thrown into the dustbin of history.

I would say Labour getting in is more to do with who they select themselves than anything the conservatives do. The general public is sick of the conservatives, they've got an awful record in office, low approval ratings and all sorts, but Labour have not capitalised is they haven't presented an effective candidate. If they found one it would only be matter of time till they win,as is the way with a two party political system.

Since Blair and Brown left they have really struggled to look professional to be honest, although saying that the cons have been an absolute circus the last three or four years.

Edit - The cons have also done admirable work in stealing Labours clothes on a number of different fronts, most recently with yesterday's huge welfare package. Sure it's forced because of COVID 19, but it does a huge amount to undermine the "selfish insular" narrative about the conservatives. Labour need to show similar ideological flexibility to be competitive.

Edited by joey_big_nose

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6 minutes ago, Mike E said:

Sorry, I don't ignore stats in favour of suppositions. Especially based on a number plucked from the air because you know an unconfirmed case.

Of the confirmed, closed cases, 11% have died.

I'm not going to pretend the mortality rate is randomly 20x lower than that.

The experts are doing, Mike. 
 

They take into consideration the suspected amounts of undiagnosed cases when putting forward their assessment of the virus. Maybe you should. 11% death rate is disingenuous and probably fuelling fear when doing the rounds on social media.

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16 minutes ago, joey_big_nose said:

. The general public is sick of the conservatives,

Can you explain the landslide in the election then?  

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44 minutes ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

The experts are doing, Mike. 
 

They take into consideration the suspected amounts of undiagnosed cases when putting forward their assessment of the virus. Maybe you should. 11% death rate is disingenuous and probably fuelling fear when doing the rounds on social media.

The most recent estimate by WHO was 3.4% on 3rd March, based on the same data available on that site. That was after an initial prediction of 2%. It's not disingenuous when it's the only figure we have based on confirmed, closed cases.

Based on all who have it, not just closed cases, it's still higher than the initial estimate, at 3.87%.

It is assuming people never tested have 'recovered from coronavirus' that is disingenuous imo. The same sort of people who say 'I had that before Christmas, Benolyn sorted me out' :P

But I admit, I'm biased in being overly concerned. As I keep saying, I believe it's safer to overreact, particularly when we still don't know if those who recover are immune or can contract it again. If fears are fuelled by a supposedly exaggerated figure on social media and it makes people wash their hands and self-isolate because of ambiguous symptoms, that's fine by me.

Edited by Mike E

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43 minutes ago, joey_big_nose said:

The general public is sick of the conservatives, they've got an awful record in office, low approval ratings and all sorts, but Labour have not capitalised is they haven't presented an effective candidate. If they found one it would only be matter of time till they win,as is the way with a two party political system.

 

Well there needs to be another surprise candidate in the leadership race to make that happen as none of the current lot will make any waves.

Since the war labour have had 16 leaders and only 3 have actually won elections (Attlee, Wilson and Blair). The Torys have had 13 leaders and only 3 have failed to win elections. The 3 that didn’t win were Hague, Smith and Howard were all in opposition to Tony the Tory. So like it or not other than a blip in the mid 60s-mid 70s which was a proper labour govt a we are a conservative nation by any large. 

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40 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

Can you explain the landslide in the election then?  

Brexit fatigue massively coloured the election outcome. People voted for it to happen, even remainers,  because they were worn out by the debate The Tories promised to end the pain even though they knew that was just the phoney war and the real war would be beginning. Given the vagaries of our electoral system it was a landslide only in terms of MP's elected not in terms of votes cast. Swings like that can be reversed. I've got news for Brexiteers, all that fuss and it still won't be happening any time soon. 

Edited by Tyrone Shoelaces

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1 hour ago, 47er said:

I do think there is no element of conspiracy at all. I'm certain of it. Almost always cock-up.

Not like this is all that unexpected is it? You have live reptiles, wolves, monkeys and all the rest of the world's endangered species  in cages in a public meat market. 

Their blood inter-mingles when they are killed because there are little or no hygiene protocols. The virus has built and spread often via bats and from them to wild and domestic animals.

I agree we should all act together now but we should never forgive or forget where and why this happened. We had the warning with SARS and a further one with MERS but have done nothing to ensure it wouldn't happen again.

China is simply too powerful to criticise.

 

That’s not all to irrational either , I’ve seen the wet markets with my own eyes . Disgraceful .
This could be a shaming of China . Who will ever know ? 
let’s be responsible  

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16 minutes ago, Mike E said:

The most recent estimate by WHO was 3.4% on 3rd March, based on the same data available on that site. That was after an initial prediction of 2%. It's not disingenuous when it's the only figure we have based on confirmed, closed cases.

Based on all who have it, not just closed cases, it's still higher than the initial estimate, at 3.87%.

It is assuming people never tested have 'recovered from coronavirus' that is disingenuous imo. The same sort of people who say 'I had that before Christmas, Benolyn sorted me out' :P

But I admit, I'm biased in being overly concerned. As I keep saying, I believe it's safer to overreact, particularly when we still don't know if those who recover are immune or can contract it again. If fears are fuelled by a supposedly exaggerated figure on social media and it makes people wash their hands and self-isolate because of ambiguous symptoms, that's fine by me.

Just asking since you know folk ... how were they tested ?  Were they already in hospital ? 
can you actually go get a test somewhere as when you suspect symptoms you are told to self isolate and no more unless you are Idris Elba etc . 
not Barbed questions by the way 

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11 minutes ago, Inglorious basturk said:

Just asking since you know folk ... how were they tested ?  Were they already in hospital ? 
can you actually go get a test somewhere as when you suspect symptoms you are told to self isolate and no more unless you are Idris Elba etc . 
not Barbed questions by the way 

My dad's friend got admitted with tight chest and breathing difficulties, suspected heart attack. Actually Coronavirus.

Teen and builder were also tested in hospital, but mild symptoms so allowed to isolate at home to free up beds.

The 3rd (elderly) admitted to hospital after ringing 111, tested at hospital.

Sooner testing kits can be made widely available, the better.

Edited by Mike E

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1 hour ago, 47er said:

I do think there is no element of conspiracy at all. I'm certain of it. Almost always cock-up.

Not like this is all that unexpected is it? You have live reptiles, wolves, monkeys and all the rest of the world's endangered species  in cages in a public meat market. 

Their blood inter-mingles when they are killed because there are little or no hygiene protocols. The virus has built and spread often via bats and from them to wild and domestic animals.

I agree we should all act together now but we should never forgive or forget where and why this happened. We had the warning with SARS and a further one with MERS but have done nothing to ensure it wouldn't happen again.

China is simply too powerful to criticise.

 

Very true. Sadly nothing will change. 

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1 hour ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

Let's see what happens when the dust settles and the blame for allowing the countries vital services to fall into such a sorry state of repair gets apportioned. Churchill got thrown out on his ear because the electorate realised things had to change after the war. Carrying on with more of the same just wasn't going to happen. In my opinion the aftermath of this crisis will bring a similar change of mood in the country. The " Dog Eat Dog " style of modern Conservatism has brought us to this point, it's time it was thrown into the dustbin of history.

I believe if anything this current crisis strengthens the conservative position, the way they've acted so far has been very impressive and bearing any disasters in the coming weeks they'll ride this wave for years to come. 

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4 minutes ago, Mike E said:

My dad's friend got admitted with tight chest, suspected heart attack. Actually Coronavirus.

Teen and builder were also tested in hospital, but mild symptoms so allowed to isolate at home to free up beds.

The 3rd (elderly) admitted to hospital after ringing 111, tested at hospital.

Sooner testing kits can be made widely available, the better.

Cheers . Yes I agree on your final point , let’s make the numbers massive who have it however make it clear that In the majority of those cases it really is a very minor thing and with the serious ones it’s highlighted and sorted , subsequently even if my concerns are correct at least something is done . 
you know I think what fuels my thoughts is over Xmas I had a horrible bug that fits the bill but over here at that point it didn’t have the fancy name and so on

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Probably the only statistics that can believed and on which comparisons can be drawn, is probably the number of deaths. Currently stands in major Europe countries as Italy 4,032, Spain 1,347, France 450, UK 177 and Germany 72.

Considering that the virus originated in China, based upon those figures alone, the UK government is doing a sterling job compared with their European peers. 

I'm not a Boris fan and he generally gets up my nose, but IMO credit where it's due, I believe he and his team are doing a fantastic job in the circumstances.

Funny though how those countries who kiss on each cheek as the normal greeting are top of the pops. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Gav said:

I believe if anything this current crisis strengthens the conservative position, the way they've acted so far has been very impressive and bearing any disasters in the coming weeks they'll ride this wave for years to come. 

I agree, unless a tonne of people die in the next couple of weeks. It could be like when Gordon Brown's Labour government faced the global economic meltdown, and were seen in a positive light when dealing with it. The fact that his right wing, free market handling of the financial sector made us very vulnerable when the house of cards collapsed is forgotten as are the successive governments' lack of action to reform the banks.

In time people will forget the U turns, dithering and all that and probably see Boris as a proper leader.

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14 hours ago, OldEwoodBlue said:

Q. Does anyone know someone who was tested and confirmed positive ?

Q. Does anyone know someone who died ?

Didn't think so.

 

Yes. We have a major supplier in Bergamo.

 

Edited by Hasta

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27 minutes ago, darrenrover said:

 

Funny though how those countries who kiss on each cheek as the normal greeting are top of the pops. 

 

This has probably got some legs....in Italy they are very touchy feely,  families live together and oldies spend much more time with the younger generation compared to here.....I think this is very relevant.  We are happy to be apart from family as a nation which might help with this.

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2 hours ago, Mike E said:

Sorry, I don't ignore stats in favour of suppositions. Especially based on a number plucked from the air because you know an unconfirmed case.

Of the confirmed, closed cases, 11% have died.

I'm not going to pretend the mortality rate is randomly 20x lower than that.

I’m not arguing with the closed cases percentage of 11%, not at all. No one really knows how many actually have the virus but, in reality, there must many, many people up and down the country. This would bring the mortality rate to well below the above percentage. I’m not making light of the situation, just trying to bring a little realism to it.

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20 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

This has probably got some legs....in Italy they are very touchy feely,  families live together and oldies spend much more time with the younger generation compared to here.....I think this is very relevant.  We are happy to be apart from family as a nation which might help with this.

The virus disproportionally affects smokers too. All European nations bar Denmark, I think, have a higher smoking rate than the UK. 

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1 hour ago, Gav said:

I believe if anything this current crisis strengthens the conservative position, the way they've acted so far has been very impressive and bearing any disasters in the coming weeks they'll ride this wave for years to come. 

So if we see a similar situation to what's occuring in Italy, how would that be perceived?

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Well there are minor positives. I've cleared out the cupboard under the bathroom sink and thrown away years of half used bottles of stuff and Kim's been gardening. If it lasts long enough and we stay healthy I might even empty the loft 

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