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5 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

Also excess deaths turned negative for a period of time so the Virus is having a positive effect? 

I'm not an epidemiologist! However I'd assume that if people had restrictions on their movements and their contacts because of Coronavirus, this would shield them from other infections as well?

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2 minutes ago, 47er said:

Yea I get your point but I'm not sure why they would want to inflate? Surely they would want to deflate numbers to assume more success in combatting the disease?

 

The filtering down of disaster capitalism I’d expect .  The chance to hand lucrative contacts out to pals for various things , keep it seeming worse than it is for as long as possible . Everything  starts and ends with money 

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Just now, Inglorious basturk said:

The filtering down of disaster capitalism I’d expect .  The chance to hand lucrative contacts out to pals for various things , keep it seeming worse than it is for as long as possible . Everything  starts and ends with money 

Tories need this virus like a hole in the head. Your theories are confected to my mind.

Certainly, handing out contracts to mates is part of their way of dealing with it but its not what they wanted.

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1 minute ago, Inglorious basturk said:

The filtering down of disaster capitalism I’d expect .  The chance to hand lucrative contacts out to pals for various things , keep it seeming worse than it is for as long as possible . Everything  starts and ends with money 

There is absolutely no doubt that there are a lot of companies with very close links to the Tory Party, donors and the people who pay to dine with Johnson etc, that are doing really well out of this crisis. Just like plenty of people did well financially out of WW 2

" Private Eye " calls them out regularly.

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6 minutes ago, 47er said:

As we enter the flu season the numbers o deaths will go up but the number of excess deaths, by definition, will not be affected.

That's why it should be the yardstick.

But excess deaths is usually used to measure the impact of flu each winter. Bad flu season = more deaths above the average, good flu season = fewer deaths than the average.

Surely as we enter december its going to be hard to differentiate between the two and covid deaths could be either over stated or under stated. 

 

As I type I've just seen a headline pop up saying the oxford vaccine works perfectly and triggers immune response so off I pop to read that. 

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2 minutes ago, 47er said:

Tories need this virus like a hole in the head. Your theories are confected to my mind.

Certainly, handing out contracts to mates is part of their way of dealing with it but its not what they wanted.

They're certainly making the best of out a bad job financially. Lot's of companies are doing really well out of the lucrative contracts that have been handed out willy nilly.

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No! We've had flu seasons forever, therefore we can work out the average over a very long time period.

Its not perfect but its the best we'll get. Certainly if we have  a massively bad flu season the figures will be skewed to some extent. However this method will also take into account those who die from flu because their defences have been weakened by Coronavirus  !( I'll leave the differentials to the experts)

They too are victims of Corona.

I don't get why you wish to downplay this pandemic, but you have since Day 1 so on we go!

I'll leave it there, exhaustion will make me more susceptible! :)

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1 minute ago, 47er said:

No! We've had flu seasons forever, therefore we can work out the average over a very long time period.

Its not perfect but its the best we'll get. Certainly if we have  a massively bad flu season the figures will be skewed to some extent. However this method will also take into account those who die from flu because their defences have been weakened by Coronavirus  !( I'll leave the differentials to the experts)

They too are victims of Corona.

I don't get why you wish to downplay this pandemic, but you have since Day 1 so on we go!

I'll leave it there, exhaustion will make me more susceptible! :)

I'm hoping all the security measures we're taking to combat the virus will have a beneficial effect on whatever strain of flu comes along this winter.

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33 minutes ago, 47er said:

No! We've had flu seasons forever, therefore we can work out the average over a very long time period.

Its not perfect but its the best we'll get. Certainly if we have  a massively bad flu season the figures will be skewed to some extent. However this method will also take into account those who die from flu because their defences have been weakened by Coronavirus  !( I'll leave the differentials to the experts)

They too are victims of Corona.

I don't get why you wish to downplay this pandemic, but you have since Day 1 so on we go!

I'll leave it there, exhaustion will make me more susceptible! :)

Oh I don’t know , because it became obvious it wasn’t as bad as expected and has just become a money maker from ppe to track and trace . The way it has been dealt with is now Having such a significant affect on things like the economy and mental health . People are being frightened by it constantly when there is no need . 

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5 minutes ago, Inglorious basturk said:

it wasn’t as bad as expected and has just become a money maker

So thousands haven't died?????

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Its frightened me into having a flu jab, which I've always resisted so far, so if you don't hear from me for a while itll be because I'm suffering from concussion from banging my head if I pass out when I have it this afternoon.

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2 hours ago, oldjamfan1 said:

Looks like its cancelled on my street anyway......

Pumpkin.jpg

They were on about not allowing kids to go trick or treating. To be fair, I was never allowed as a kid. My Mum said it was ‘glorified begging’....

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1 minute ago, 47er said:

So thousands haven't died?????

I haven’t said that , I do think the death numbers are a huge can of worms but even ignoring that my issue is the totally out of proportion attitude to it now . It peaked in mid April .  Because of the disaster capitalism dripping down it’s going to be the case that people suffer more economically , or their mental health etc etc . 
you live in fear of something that has only effected 0.05 percent of the worlds population, an illness that 99.8 percent of people recover fully from fine . That’s your look out . I won’t and I haven’t . 
Especially when these rules aren’t for everyone , just the paupers . Rules I won’t follow any more 

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6 minutes ago, gumboots said:

Its frightened me into having a flu jab, which I've always resisted so far, so if you don't hear from me for a while itll be because I'm suffering from concussion from banging my head if I pass out when I have it this afternoon.

Fear  doctrine 

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1 hour ago, 47er said:

Yea I get your point but I'm not sure why they would want to inflate? Surely they would want to deflate numbers to assume more success in combatting the disease? 

 

They already have deflated the numbers by changing the criteria for reporting and wiping 5K off the figures overnight

 

Edited by Jimbo

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3 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

They already have deflated the numbers by changing the criteria and wiping 5K off the figures overnight

 

The fact that they did that isn’t a positive it was an admission that they were tagging it to every cadaver going .... it still remains that you can recover from Covid on day 14 , get hit by a bus on day 27 and Covid is on your cert. 

 

it’s astonishing that some people go through life without even questioning things , but that’s your choice , enjoy the misery 

 

oh as I’ve said really the deaths haven’t significantly moved in months and months , we are supposed to focus on cases now don’t you know that ,?  That’s the flavour of the month 

Edited by Inglorious basturk

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10 minutes ago, Inglorious basturk said:

Fear  doctrine 

Not really. I may already have had Covid. I just should have the flu jab because I'm old but normally I dont because I'm a coward who is petrified of needles. This year I thought, in the interests of protecting others as much as anything, I'd get one. I probably won't do it again until I'm very old as I havent had flu since the 50s

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3 minutes ago, gumboots said:

Not really. I may already have had Covid. I just should have the flu jab because I'm old but normally I dont because I'm a coward who is petrified of needles. This year I thought, in the interests of protecting others as much as anything, I'd get one. I probably won't do it again until I'm very old as I havent had flu since the 50s

I dunno , I think another thing that has been going on is getting inside people’s heads , wash your hands so you aren’t a murderer etc perhaps you have rationalised it but I suspect it’s not something you would have even entertained 

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1 hour ago, 47er said:

No! We've had flu seasons forever, therefore we can work out the average over a very long time period.

Its not perfect but its the best we'll get. Certainly if we have  a massively bad flu season the figures will be skewed to some extent. However this method will also take into account those who die from flu because their defences have been weakened by Coronavirus  !( I'll leave the differentials to the experts)

They too are victims of Corona.

I don't get why you wish to downplay this pandemic, but you have since Day 1 so on we go!

I'll leave it there, exhaustion will make me more susceptible! :)

Ok so let's switch this round so it backs up your point of view. Excess deaths could also understate the effects of covid. For example (purely hypothetical but perfectly plausible), this year there will be record numbers of people getting a flu jab therefore less people will get the flu and die than would in a normal year. Then add in covid deaths and it could bring us up to the 5 year average. In this case the excess deaths would be in line with the 5 year average however in the background, covid deaths are still ripping through thousands. 

 

As for downplaying it, not so much, more questioning of the one size fits all blanket approach. Yes thousands have died, a good portion of those in care homes which were hung out to dry, maybe if more attention was given to actually putting a ring round care homes than demonising people for sitting on a park bench or daring to have a BBQ then those deaths could have been avoided. 

Edited by RoverDom

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13 minutes ago, RoverDom said:

Ok so let's switch this round so it backs up your point of view. Excess deaths could also understate the effects of covid. For example (purely hypothetical but perfectly plausible), this year there will be record numbers of people getting a flu jab therefore less people will get the flu and die than would in a normal year. Then add in covid deaths and it could bring us up to the 5 year average. In this case the excess deaths would be in line with the 5 year average however in the background, covid deaths are still ripping through thousands. 

 

As for downplaying it, not so much, more questioning of the one size fits all blanket approach. Yes thousands have died, a good portion of those in care homes which were hung out to dry, maybe if more attention was given to actually putting a ring round care homes than demonising people for sitting on a park bench or daring to have a BBQ then those deaths could have been avoided. 

Good post .  It’s all a bit late for me , what’s the point in these draconian measures when the deaths are relatively insignificant, most people now are totally symptomless 

it’s just not proportionate . Then add to the mix the issues costs and corruption with ppe , serco Harding etc 

people also get their backs up being treated with such contempt . Cummingsgate 

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1 hour ago, gumboots said:

Not really. I may already have had Covid. I just should have the flu jab because I'm old but normally I dont because I'm a coward who is petrified of needles. This year I thought, in the interests of protecting others as much as anything, I'd get one. I probably won't do it again until I'm very old as I havent had flu since the 50s

I'm sure you'll be fine, just a  small sharp scratch as they say.

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1 hour ago, gumboots said:

Its frightened me into having a flu jab, which I've always resisted so far, so if you don't hear from me for a while itll be because I'm suffering from concussion from banging my head if I pass out when I have it this afternoon.

Well done Gumboots.

Wife was like you. Didn’t want it, said it gave her the flu, but we had ours together a couple of weeks ago with no problems at all. Hopefully you’ll be the same.

Just need Jim to be sensible now and go for his.

Edited by den

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