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45 minutes ago, 47er said:

I compile my opinions from all the stuff I read daily and I read a lot. If you think I'm going to waste hours looking back for articles and referencing them for you to tell me, without reading them, that it's a difficult job and the Government's done fine you must have rocks in your head!

I've given my opinion, if you don't like it, I don't give a shit.

Only a few days ago, at his press conference, Johnson said we could pack this virus away within 3 months!!

That was rubbish then and its rubbish now. So why did he say it? He couldn't possibly have believed it. Show me the expert who agrees with that!

Liar or fool?

I think BoJo a complete idiot, but I do think getting the virus under control in 12 weeks is possible given sufficient testing.

1) Strict lockdown for 3-6 weeks to radically reduce infection rate.
2) Build up in paralell vast testing resources
3) Apply overwhelming testing at key pressure points - airports, ports, gp surgeries, hospitals, key worker employers. Enforced isolation for anyone who test positive.
4) Establish randomised testing of  population sample to track re-emergence. Enforced isolation for anyone who tests positive.
5) Release lockdown slowly.
6) Monitor results at pressure points and randomised sample. As soon as any case emerges blanket test the shit out of everyone even slightly related
6) In case of significant re-emergence re-establish lockdown.

The hope is you could get to a point with a fully functioning economy despite not having a vaccine like South Korea 

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The Tory Minister in charge of procurement is getting a roasting  from Emily Maitlis on " Newsnight ". A study in evasion. Just a nodding dog which was ok before the crisis but now he's got to actually do something he's lost. If he's running the show no wonder we have problems. If this was a shooting war he would have been removed from his post tonight.

Edited by Tyrone Shoelaces

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1 hour ago, 47er said:

I compile my opinions from all the stuff I read daily and I read a lot. If you think I'm going to waste hours looking back for articles and referencing them for you to tell me, without reading them, that it's a difficult job and the Government's done fine you must have rocks in your head!

I've given my opinion, if you don't like it, I don't give a shit.

Only a few days ago, at his press conference, Johnson said we could pack this virus away within 3 months!!

That was rubbish then and its rubbish now. So why did he say it? He couldn't possibly have believed it. Show me the expert who agrees with that!

Liar or fool?

Or both.

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Jeremy Hunt is all over Covid19 crisis as a member of the governments health select committee. But it’s only a few years ago he was responsible for bringing the NHS to its knees with his one man war against junior doctors/7 day a week NHS. 


More front than Blackpool that one and a bad jumper on Peston. 

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1 hour ago, 47er said:

Only a few days ago, at his press conference, Johnson said we could pack this virus away within 3 months!!

That was rubbish then and its rubbish now. So why did he say it? He couldn't possibly have believed it. Show me the expert who agrees with that!

Liar or fool?

The PM said that 6 days ago.

Wuhan relaxed restrictions in that time period, why do you believe the same won’t apply here?

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2 minutes ago, Gav said:

Jeremy Hunt is all over Covid19 crisis as a member of the governments health select committee. But it’s only a few years ago he was responsible for bringing the NHS to its knees with his one man war against junior doctors/7 day a week NHS. 


More front than Blackpool that one and a bad jumper on Peston. 

Hunt's still sore after losing to Johnson and being thrown on to the backbenches. Nasty bit of work though. NHS in its current underfunded state is partly down to him

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16 minutes ago, Gav said:

The PM said that 6 days ago.

Wuhan relaxed restrictions in that time period, why do you believe the same won’t apply here?

See my post on viral testing. We are not Wuhan, we are not ireland!

We are behind the game.

16 minutes ago, jim mk2 said:

Hunt's still sore after losing to Johnson and being thrown on to the backbenches. Nasty bit of work though. NHS in its current underfunded state is partly down to him

No argument there.

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37 minutes ago, Sparks Rover said:

That minister on newsnight is an utter tool....Zahawi.......useless

Maitlis asked him very simple questions that only needed really simple answers, but he swerved, evaded and tried endlessly to change the question. You could see Emily getting more and more frustrated with him. 

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41 minutes ago, joey_big_nose said:

I think BoJo a complete idiot, but I do think getting the virus under control in 12 weeks is possible given sufficient testing.

To keep up with ireland on a per capita basis we would have to up our viral testing from 35000 a week by a factor of 15.

From 35000 to 525000 a week!!! You confident about that?

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1 hour ago, 47er said:

Silas---just heard an interview with  Antony Costello a former scientist from WHO on the World Tonight that Ireland is doing 100000 Coronavirus tests a week and Britain is doing 35000!

Ireland's population is 4.1 million. Given the difference in population, should be the other way round and then some eh?

Furthermore, the British Government said 10 days ago that it was going to ramp up mass testing but 10 days later its still doing the same amount. He described the Government's approach as "really, really slow".

He stated that Jeremy Hunt had asked the government in parliament today why the viral testing programme was not expanding. Costello described the government as "struggling to answer".

You will recall that Hunt is a Conservative MP and a former Secretary for Health. His concerns are also reported in the Telegraph and the Daily Mail. 

Perhaps you'd care to respond? Interview freely available on BBC Radio iPlayer.

 

You've only given half the story though as per.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52035604 - Irish Govts Pledges

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51943612 - UK Govt Pledges

Ireland aren't "doing" 100,000 tests a week, they plan too. Similarly, we plan to do 175,000 tests a week. 

I see you also completely missed out the plan to deliver millions of home testing kits within days or weeks: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

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52 minutes ago, 47er said:

To keep up with ireland on a per capita basis we would have to up our viral testing from 35000 a week by a factor of 15.

From 35000 to 525000 a week!!! You confident about that?

I don't think the number of tests per head of population Ireland is going for is required to get the situation under control. But I don't really know to be honest. A virologist could say.

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1 hour ago, jim mk2 said:

Why no one should step into Wetherspoon again  (congratulations to those who have never entered in the first place)

Tim Martin, chairman of pub chain Wetherspoon, has said he will not pay employees beyond this Friday unless the government offers a firm date for payments to employers through its coronavirus job retention scheme.

https://www.ft.com/content/3c69066e-6ebd-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

As a reminder, Martin is an arch-Brexitee who regularly bashed the EU for over-regulating workers' rights. So now we know why - in order to throw his own employees under a bus at the first sign of trouble 

In my humble view Wetherspoon and Sports Direct and their owners have no place in our society. They are the ugly face of capitalism, they hold their employees in contempt and I hope people remember what they have done when this pandemic is over.

 

I think you're directing your ire at the wrong person there jim. Surely the Government are in the wrong here, they've made this extremely grand and on the face of it incredibly generous offer to pay 80% of people's wages to bribe them into staying off work and accepting a lockdown but when you get down to the nitty gritty and ask about when people are actually going to receive their money, the answers are somewhat less forthcoming.

Where I work the boss has lodged a claim on behalf of the employees on the desk through the Federation of Small Businesses who have told him that it could be 6 months before he sees any money such is the volume of cases.

What's the point in that? Businesses will still be facing exactly the same cashflow issues as before. It may be that some very large businesses could afford to carry the loss until its sorted but why should they have to? They weren't the ones who made this promise.

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1 hour ago, Dreams of 1995 said:

You've only given half the story though as per.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52035604 - Irish Govts Pledges

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51943612 - UK Govt Pledges

Ireland aren't "doing" 100,000 tests a week, they plan too. Similarly, we plan to do 175,000 tests a week. 

I see you also completely missed out the plan to deliver millions of home testing kits within days or weeks: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days

I gave the only story I heard. Listen to it yourself. So I resent the implication that I withheld anything.

Ireland is 15+ times smaller than UK by the way

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2 hours ago, 47er said:

You think its all been the best a British government could do, I differ.

I can quite confidently say nothing even remotely resembling this statement has ever come from me. 

You see, that's the issue here. Some people are so one sided in their thinking that if they get called out on something, their go-to stance is "that must be cos they support the other side". 

If a climate change activist has a theory that I believe is untrue, and I oppose it, does that make me pro climate change? No, not at all. So why should it be different here.

Now, where you may have come up with your assumption is 2 fold:

Firstly, I don't believe this pandemic should be politicised at all, and have made that very clear. I have posted several well written articles from all around the World as back up to show the reasons why myself, and many others, feel that's the wrong way to go about things during these terrible times. 

Secondly, I believe my objection to people sticking the boot into Boris is seen as me being a supporter of him. I am not. But, again, I have clearly explained the reasons why this situation is so much bigger than one man. I'm guessing these Cobra meetings have around 15 to 20 people in, if not more. Medical experts, scientists, security officials, military chiefs, emergency services leaders etc etc.

They all come up with these plans "together", so people trying to pin the blame for anything on one man doesn't sit well with me and makes me question their agenda. 

 

And to the "two vital weeks wasted", that I waited some 5 days and half a dozen posts till I finally had to comment. It wasn't 2 weeks, it was 4 days.

And you know the 4 days that bother me most?  From last Monday to Friday. On that Monday the Government did their U turn and said stopping the spread was the aim. So why not shut everything down then? Why wait till Friday? And then wait again till no one listened to them, and having to double down on it on the following Monday. 

They appear to be way more relevant to me. But have had minimal mention in some 10/15 pages of posts. I can only assume because some were too busy basking in the glory of: "Nah, nah, we've caught them out, they got it wrong, we need to hammer this angle hard." 

Conclusion

And to the other posts calling me out to respond to your critique of a variety of Government actions, and assess their level of efficiency. I'm not a Government apologist, I have no interest in defending their every move. 

Firstly,  because that's not my bag.

More importantly,  because we are still so early in this process, that any comments at this stage are all pure conjecture. In around a month or so we'll all know what went wrong, what went right, what could have been done better etc. 

And I'll be more than happy to stick it to the relevant people who may have failed in their job roles when that day comes.

Until then, I'll keep a calm head, try and protect me and mine, see what I can do to help others around me - work colleagues, neighbours, friends - and wait to see how this all pans out. 

What I won't be doing is pointing accusatory fingers at all and sundry and blaming them for stuff that hasn't even happened yet. 

Because at the end of the day there's two things I can absolutely guarantee you:

A) Nobody wanted this to happen. It is a horrible thing that is being thrust upon all of us.

B )Everyone is doing the best they can to control it and save lives. Their "best" may not turn out to be enough, but that's a whole different chat.

 

And if there's people out there that disagree with A and B, I'd suggest you have either become a symptom of this disease yourself, or you were broken before it ever existed. 

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Silas, I've been a lifelong Conservative voter,  and I had high hopes for Boris after he managed to finally extricate us from the clutches of Europe but for different reasons to most who think he hasn't been stringent enough I am absolutely appalled with the way he has caved in to media pressure and at the moment I'm of the mind I'll never vote for anyone again - they're all as bad as one another.

With the important proviso that the old and infirm were kept completely out of the way I think he had two ways of dealing with this both of which would involve similar loss of life in the final analysis.

a) Get it over with as quickly as possible by letting those in 'normal" health who wanted to carry on as normal and let natural immunity take its course. or 

b) String it out indefinitely by going into lockdown and taking the risk of further mass infection on re-emergence followed by further lockdown and incalculable loss to many people's livelihoods and the economy.

He could have bucked the trend, achieved greatness and chosen a). Instead he buckled and chose the option everyone else is trying b). Just because one Government tried it and the rest followed suit doesn't mean they are right.

Incidentally, are we still allowing flights in from Countries with high rates of infection? What's the point in everyone being under virtual house arrest and doing their best to stop the infection spreading with that going on?

And another thing, what a bloody cheek putting everyone on lockdown on the pretext it's too dangerous to carry on as normal then realising that the hastily introduced and ill conceived policy didn't leave the elderly and vulnerable adequately catered for and coming back cap in hand to ask for volunteers. Not sufficiently dangerous enough that 250k more people can't come out of lockdown then? Thankfully the bulldog spirit of the British Public shone through in that instance.

In the shorter term it's going to be a very long and imo entirely avoidable slog which many older people won't survive anyway due to the isolation and stress caused by being locked away and in the longer term there'll be incalculable damage to the economy. Again entirely avoidable in my view.

Rant over. Crisis sadly not. 

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7 hours ago, Gav said:

The PM said that 6 days ago.

Wuhan relaxed restrictions in that time period, why do you believe the same won’t apply here?

Bollocks,

Wuhan under total lock down until 8 April.

Hubei Province had the slightest lifting of restrictions yesterday.

If you go to anywhere in China, the current relaxed restrictions are stricter than you currently have in the UK.

These things are relative. 

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Nick Kristof places Covid 19 in context:

Person with flu circulating freely = 386 people infected, 1 or 2 in hospital

Person with Covid 19 circulating freely = 99,000 people infected, 20,000 in hospital

And I will add 1,000 to 8,000 dead

 

 

Trump keeps comparing Covid-19 to the seasonal flu, so I highlight three essential differences: Covid-19 is at least 50 percent more infectious, requires hospitalization at least 5 times as often and results in death 10 times more often.

Think of it this way. A single person with the flu will lead to 386 people with the flu over two months, and a handful will require hospitalization. But a single person with Covid-19 will result in 99,000 Covid-19 infections in the same period, and up to 20,000 will require hospitalization.

In any case, please visit the column and play with the model of the virus. I worked on this with my colleague Stuart A. Thompson, who is the Einstein of visual journalism, and with two epidemiologists at the University of Toronto, David N. Fisman and Ashleigh Tuite.

Trump keeps comparing Covid-19 to the seasonal flu, so I highlight three essential differences: Covid-19 is at least 50 percent more infectious, requires hospitalization at least 5 times as often and results in death 10 times more often.

Think of it this way. A single person with the flu will lead to 386 people with the flu over two months, and a handful will require hospitalization. But a single person with Covid-19 will result in 99,000 Covid-19 infections in the same period, and up to 20,000 will require hospitalization.

image.png

 

Edited by philipl

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5 hours ago, Silas said:

I can quite confidently say nothing even remotely resembling this statement has ever come from me. 

Of course it hasn't! I never said it had. I'm concluding its your attitude from your posts.

You gone to a lot of time and trouble to present yourself as a reasonable, even-handed chap but you're not. I can't remember you finding fault with anything the government has done in respect of this virus. Even some Conservative members have expressed concern and alarm at short-comings they've identified but I guess they are just politicising the issue eh?

How about----- sending this virus packing within 3 months? Stupid, irresponsible, a lie?

How about shortages in the most basic medical equipment for those on the front-line eg begging schools to donate stuff from the chem labs?

Series of stories in the Guardian today from NHS who are scared stiff but soldiering on anyway eg Midwife, Greater London----"we have been told to use surgical masks and a plastic apron. A couple of days ago we still had plastic goggles from s DIY store......We have also run out of the virus testing kits. They have known this was coming for months, clearly there has been no preparation."

Its not "politicising" the virus to draw attention to these and other issues, its actually unpatriotic not to.

I have praised the government for its financial measures, though we await the details on help for the army of self-employed (so-called).

Those working at the coal face strongly fear that the NHS is going to be over-whelmed in the next days and weeks and will not be able to cope.

 Your final sentence shows your real character and I won't be reading any more of your posts.

Ironically, you're a Mod and I'm not allowed to put you on ignore like I used to.

 

 

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5 hours ago, RevidgeBlue said:

Silas, I've been a lifelong Conservative voter,  and I had high hopes for Boris after he managed to finally extricate us from the clutches of Europe but for different reasons to most who think he hasn't been stringent enough I am absolutely appalled with the way he has caved in to media pressure and at the moment I'm of the mind I'll never vote for anyone again - they're all as bad as one another.

With the important proviso that the old and infirm were kept completely out of the way I think he had two ways of dealing with this both of which would involve similar loss of life in the final analysis.

a) Get it over with as quickly as possible by letting those in 'normal" health who wanted to carry on as normal and let natural immunity take its course. or 

b) String it out indefinitely by going into lockdown and taking the risk of further mass infection on re-emergence followed by further lockdown and incalculable loss to many people's livelihoods and the economy.

He could have bucked the trend, achieved greatness and chosen a). Instead he buckled and chose the option everyone else is trying b). Just because one Government tried it and the rest followed suit doesn't mean they are right.

Incidentally, are we still allowing flights in from Countries with high rates of infection? What's the point in everyone being under virtual house arrest and doing their best to stop the infection spreading with that going on?

And another thing, what a bloody cheek putting everyone on lockdown on the pretext it's too dangerous to carry on as normal then realising that the hastily introduced and ill conceived policy didn't leave the elderly and vulnerable adequately catered for and coming back cap in hand to ask for volunteers. Not sufficiently dangerous enough that 250k more people can't come out of lockdown then? Thankfully the bulldog spirit of the British Public shone through in that instance.

In the shorter term it's going to be a very long and imo entirely avoidable slog which many older people won't survive anyway due to the isolation and stress caused by being locked away and in the longer term there'll be incalculable damage to the economy. Again entirely avoidable in my view.

Rant over. Crisis sadly not. 

Except there have been cases involving young people with no underlying health conditions have been dying.....

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Just now, K-Hod said:

Except people that were young and with no underlying health conditions have been dying.....

And a ton of young people who haven't died have still been off work very sick. It is having a huge effect. 

 

From my knowledge- mainly limited to my wife's work - the response hasn't been good enough. NHS staff have been given very limited supplies of "protective" gear, and frankly I am amazed at the boldness and balls NHS staff have to keep doing their job. To say they are under protected is a heck of an understatement. Yet they keep going in. 

Having decent levels of good equipment really should have been something the government should have managed. There's a whole host of other naive/poor decisions imo but stuff like this seems basic. Right tools for the job seems elementary to me. 

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