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joey_big_nose

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joey_big_nose last won the day on September 9 2018

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About joey_big_nose

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    World Cup

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    London

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  1. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    Trumps handling of this crisis will end his career I think. It's a monumental calamity, and he is on record multiple times calling it a hoax and taking no action. The outbreak in the US is likely to put Europe in the shade, and Trump still seems to be prioritising the economy over public health. Not a huge deal now for his supporters but when they start dying in the next 4-6 weeks that will change. He's done. For all of Boris faults he has always talked about the outbreak seriously, and sensibly aligned himself with the medical advisors. So he's, if you excuse the terrible pun, innoculated himself sufficiently.
  2. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    Damning really
  3. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    Agree with everything you say. What I didn't really appreciate until reading a BBC article today is that risk of fatality does seem to increase with increased exposure which must be terrifying for medical staff.
  4. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    For loads of people you can have it and get virtually zero symptoms but you can still spread it. It's why it's so dangerous.
  5. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    I don't think the number of tests per head of population Ireland is going for is required to get the situation under control. But I don't really know to be honest. A virologist could say.
  6. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    I think BoJo a complete idiot, but I do think getting the virus under control in 12 weeks is possible given sufficient testing. 1) Strict lockdown for 3-6 weeks to radically reduce infection rate. 2) Build up in paralell vast testing resources 3) Apply overwhelming testing at key pressure points - airports, ports, gp surgeries, hospitals, key worker employers. Enforced isolation for anyone who test positive. 4) Establish randomised testing of population sample to track re-emergence. Enforced isolation for anyone who tests positive. 5) Release lockdown slowly. 6) Monitor results at pressure points and randomised sample. As soon as any case emerges blanket test the shit out of everyone even slightly related 6) In case of significant re-emergence re-establish lockdown. The hope is you could get to a point with a fully functioning economy despite not having a vaccine like South Korea
  7. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    I'm not trying to be patronising here, but your missing the key point that South Korea is a much much smaller country than the US so has performed many many more tests per head of the population. I'm a bit confused about what issue you have with my point? https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-tests-country?country=AUS+AUT+BRA+BEL+COL+FRA+FIN+DEU+PAK+RUS+NOR+VNM+USA+GBR+KOR
  8. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    The simple active infection positivity test has been available since early Jan and is what South Korea have deployed so well to control the outbreak. That's the one I am referring to in terms of mistakes made. Western governments should have manufactured millions of those tests. I know there are other tests, including antibody tests, which have come later. But they are not relevant to stopping the initial outbreak.
  9. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    America is in a really bad position. No central leadership, a fractured health system, and the most unfit population in the world. It's looking grim
  10. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    We should have prioritised getting them made. As soon as the test was worked out in early Jan it's just a case of money to get the tests built. We could have had millions in play by now. Just a simple f*** up really. I expect a huge overhaul in global testing to be the key lesson from all of this. A network of test factories across the globe and major testing equipment installed at airports etc.
  11. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    Yup that was the balls up and it's probably cost 4-5k lives. Overwhelming testing would have allowed us to contain it. Also could have let us keep the economy open like South Korea.
  12. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    Well I would say mass testing is always going to be a good idea. I can't think of a scenario where that isn't the case. So not doing that was, imo, a real balls up.
  13. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    I guess the key point is other countries had the same or less information and reacted differently. We're too early on the curve to see the impact of the governments decisions but it will be pretty plain in a couple of months. The main thing that's clear is all Western governments really really dropped the ball on testing, the UK government particularly so.
  14. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    I'd say there's two arguments for the current action. 1) I believe politician and economists etc have risk reviewed it and decided it is worth the it. What is key is thatservices and restrictions can be turned on and off like a tap, so there would be the option of just starting the economy up again if the economic devastation is too much. 2) the process we are going through now is one that we need in our locker as shutting down the economy is going to be potentially necessary again for future pandemics or climate events. To shirk it would just kick the can down the road until something worse comes along.
  15. joey_big_nose

    Coronavirus

    There's been literally hundreds of thousands of high skilled politicians, healthcare workers, civil servants, economists working on this around the world - from the leader of WHO through to Donald Trump. And your view is only you have the sensible view?
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