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About only2garners

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    Champions League

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  1. only2garners


    I think you're being a bit premature there Paul. Yes, there is a distinct possibility of a Tory majority but it's far from a given yet, still 4 weeks away from the election. Were this to have been a "normal" election the vagaries of our electoral system would mean that the Tories would need a significant lead in the polls in order to gain an overall majority, maybe even up to 10%. Of course, this won't be an ordinary election and is thus extremely difficult to predict. No one yet knows how much tactical voting will happen on the Remain side or how fragile Labour leave votes are. It looks very likely that the Tories are going to lose seats in Scotland and in and around London. Given that they start some way short of a majority they are going to have to pick up a lot of seats in the rest of England to bridge that gap to a majority. Clearly Corbyn is an electoral liability for Labour and Johnson still has this bizarre jolly chap image which hasn't budged much despite him appearing not very popular when he hits Northern streets. The Brexit party is a busted flush now but it might have a marginal affect in some tight Conservative/Labour marginal seats - I suspect just a handful. What I think can be confidently predicted is that stuff will happen to one party or another or maybe all of them and how those events affect voters will in the end be key. I also suspect that the fact that we are still in grave danger of a No Deal Brexit might concentrate a few voters' minds.
  2. only2garners


    Bairstow is in the test squad - he was added last week as cover for Joe Denly, who has an injury.
  3. only2garners

    Championship season 2019-20

    I don’t see an issue with managing the next two NI games given that they are next week. It would be the potential play-off game in March I would be concerned about.
  4. only2garners


    If by that comment you are suggesting that Greg Coar is related to Rob Coar then you are completely wrong. As others have said on this thread Greg is from a long standing Rovers supporting family and is one of the good guys, as in truth are the majority of staff at Ewood.
  5. only2garners


    Any fool can change an agreement if they are happy to take a worse deal than the previous one, which this is.
  6. only2garners


    It’s hard to see how opposition parties could have got a deal with Brussels chaddy. And May has already got one deal with them - how is that working out? And he has already illegally prorogued Parliament for 5 weeks and has twice stopped Parliament from debating his withdrawal agreement- he is at least as much, probably more to blame for failing to get a deal agreed than other parties.
  7. only2garners


    Don't assume an election is a done deal - all sorts of things could happen yet. It appears that the Government are trying some sort of unusual procedure meaning only Ministers can propose amendments to the bill - if that's true that will cause all sorts of manoeuvring by Opposition parties, probably supported by the Speaker and maybe wreck the bill.
  8. only2garners


    I agreed to swap my vote with someone in Oxford West & Abingdon. She agreed to vote Lib Dem there and I agreed to vote Labour in South Ribble. It clearly didn't work in South Ribble - it was always going to be a long shot. But it helped in Oxford West & Abingdon where Layla Moran won for the Lib Dems with a majority of 816. South Ribble will probably still stay Conservative but Seema Kennedy just last week announced that she won't sit at the next election, so currently they don't even have a candidate and the Labour candidate Kim Snape has been working hard in the patch for a couple of years now.
  9. only2garners


    Chaddy - I think Philip is rather laying it on a bit thick with his predictions but his basic point is sound. No one should be taking these opinion poll seat predictions with any seriousness right now. Given our dysfunctional electoral system and the current situation where voting intentions are extremely difficult to predict, any seat projections should come with a serious health warning. Here's some of what we don't know: - What effect the Tories' move to attract Labour voters in leave constituencies will have in a general election What the Brexit Party will do - stand against the Tories across the country or come to some sort of electoral pact? How seriously Tory votes will collapse in their previous heartlands, many of which are strongly Remain constituencies What affect an election in December will have on turnout because of weather, dark nights and possible voter anger at being asked to vote again What will happen in Northern Ireland - will the DUP lose seats? If so, where will they go? What effect tactical voting will have on constituencies? I'm pretty certain I will be voting tactically in South Ribble What will happen in the Tory seats where MPs who have been kicked out of the party and are not retiring - will they get re-elected or will splitting the Tory vote lead to another oarty winning? Finally, "events dear boy, events" - we don't know who will make blunders and what effect they will have, but we all know someone will One thing we can be pretty certain of is that the Tory vote will almost certainly collapse in Scotland - they have 13 seats and will lose at least 10 of them. Coupled with seats they will lose in the South they are going to have to pick up large numbers elsewhere even to stand still.
  10. only2garners


    The last 50 polls have shown a lead for Remain over Leave according to the Financial Times. And the public is currently starting to blame Johnson and the Tories for the failure of the latest withdrawal agreement.
  11. only2garners


    I doubt that question could be answered, as so many of the votes have not been simply about leave or remain but about various deals on offer. Chaddy - you keep saying that we have had a referendum and we should just get on with enacting it. We had a general election in 2015 that elected a Government for a 5 year term, but yet we have already had another and now it seems likely that will have another. Why can we seemingly have an election at a whim but can only ever have one referendum?
  12. only2garners


    It seems to me that the Lib Dems and the SNP have decided that the Tories' plan to have an election in December will be blocked by Labour and that this gives them an opportunity to show they are being proactive by asking for an election but knowing it won't happen. Labour will then be seen as the one party blocking an election. I presume they are also working on the assumption or hope of a hung Parliament as well.
  13. only2garners


    The problem with promising a carrot to the far right wing nutters to get them onside is that it is likely to lead to some of the rebels who were kicked out of the party for vetoing no deal will probably abstain or vote against if they think there is the slightest possibility of a no deal happening, even if it is in 4 years. It's impossible to placate both wings of the Tory party at once. And that might affect some of the Labour waverers as well.
  14. only2garners


    Bear in mind that it's not all about Saturday's vote. If the deal passes then there will need to be primary legislation passed in the next couple of weeks. From what I understand the opposition parties are not currently planning to attach a confirmatory referendum on Saturday as they can do that next week if need be.
  15. only2garners


    It’s very hard to see how the Government can get this bizarre deal through Parliament. It goes straight through the DUP’s red lines. They can’t accept a deal which relies on control of the future relationship lying with Stormont - either it never gets back together and the status quo will apply or it gets back together and the DUP loses control over the vote, which may very well move Northern Ireland nearer uniting with the south. Most of the 21 Ex Tories will probably fall into line but it’s hard to see many of the wavering Labour members voting for the deal - no doubt some will and Ronnie Campbell has just said he will on Newsnight - but for most it is worse on worker and environmental protection and coupled with a three line Labour whip most will likely vote against.

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