Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

106 Excellent

About Rover-the-Top

  • Rank
    Premier League

Recent Profile Visitors

2,277 profile views
  1. Brexit Thread

    I'm sorry, I'll be more specific - you can't add 15% on to the cost of importing from France to make a British bid more competitive whilst we are in the EU. That would be a tariff. Of course you don't have to accept the lowest price, but there seems to be more in the detail beyond the headlines anyway. Non-story beyond the political points scoring.
  2. Brexit Thread

    But that's not possible whilst we're in the EU?
  3. Brexit Thread

    It's another story that shows up the ignorance on both sides. Firstly, the colour of the passport is, within the grand scheme of things, one of the more bonkers things to get worked up about. Brexiters concerned about which country they're made in really need to get a grip of themselves - if an overseas company can produce what we need at better value, then that's good for the UK even if it's bad for an individual UK company. But then Remainers looking to score points from it seem to have forgotten it's an outcome from still being part of the EU - prior to the referendum, this sort of situation would be put forward as a reason to leave. I don't know how long De La Rue would be producing the passports for if there wasn't a change, but presumably if Gemalto are able to outbid them it would happen even if we were staying? So apart from providing some chucklesome irony, there's really not a lot in it.
  4. Brexit Thread

    Hardly an equal comparison is it? We're not asking for a diagnosis on the health of the economy now. It's like asking your doctor what your health will be over the next 15 years. They may be able to point to existing conditions you have and how your current lifestyle could affect you, give you a worse case scenario. But they'll be as good as your neighbour at predicting when you'll catch a cold or if you'll be hit by a bus. And that is in essence why the pre-vote assessment has turned out to be wrong. You remainers are free to base your opinions on whatever the hell you like, but nobody is an "expert" at predicting the future. It's rather incredible that I actually have to point that out.
  5. Brexit Thread

    There's no such thing as independent assessments on such a polarising issue. You can't be an economist and not have an opinion on the theories driving the EU. It's like asking for an independent view on whether to believe in god or not. It's why I wouldn't bother putting faith in forecasts falling in favour of either side, they're all going to be biased in how they've treated the data, it's impossible not to be. It's not a case of making wrong assumptions, it's just that they have to make assumptions to fill the gaps. Those assumptions will be shaped by opinion. Inevitably, some other variable that's not been considered will break the model and the forecast will go wrong. You can see that with the pre-referendum forecast. You'll eventually see it with the latest efforts, certainly over the longer term. But no doubt whatever happens, remain voters will always believe things would be even better if the result had gone the other way.
  6. Brexit Thread

    Because they make the same assumptions, basically. There are also Leaver economists whose views are equally rejected by remainers. Yet both sides will be working to valid theories. Predicting the future will always involve an element of guesswork, particularly the further ahead you try to go.
  7. Brexit Thread

    You were suggesting there must be a report to contradict the gloomy forecasts, I was merely using actual recent history to show that's nonsense. I'm amazed you can explain away the difference blaming other factors without recognising what that means for all forecasts. It proves my point.
  8. Brexit Thread

    Why? That's a rather illogical conclusion. It would be an even more pointless exercise if they produced multiple forecasts covering all bases. But then if you'd have asked me to produce a government report from the time of the referendum showing small but consistent growth for the next 18 months, I wouldn't have been able to do it. All I'd be able to get was the following, predicting immediate recession and rising unemployment following the vote: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf With hindsight, we can say it's badly wrong. And therein should lie the lesson about using forecasts as facts.
  9. John Williams

    Football's an odd business.
  10. Pyeongchang olympics

    The British girl crashing in the speed skating yesterday reminded me of the story of Steven Bradbury - either the best or worst gold medal win depending on how you look at it.
  11. Brexit Thread

    So who do we make the cheque out to? Despite the heightened interest in the economic health of the UK over the last 18 months, it seems remainers like yourself still haven't twigged that treating over-prudent doomsday forecasts as fact is self-defeating over time, as reality diverges from the predictions. The alternative that you're comparing to will always remain theory, so the only certainty is that no one will feel better or worse off whatever happens. Is the big font an attempt to draw attention away from the fact that even one of the more ardent remainers on here just pointed out you're spouting ridiculous propaganda?
  12. Brexit Thread

    Fair play, Jim.
  13. Brexit Thread

    I can't decide whether you're intentionally trying to mislead people or if you're so far out of your depth you don't know when to give up bluffing? As the BBC's Andrew Neil succinctly pointed out in the quote, your point is factually incorrect, and it's comparing apples to oranges anyway. Repeating the lie doesn't change anything...
  14. Brexit Thread

    Best email BMG to tell them that their analysis of their own poll is wrong then...