Even under the most pessimistic assumptions about our League One revenues, it's hard to imagine why we'd suddenly be heading to another transfer embargo if it's based on the max £39m losses over 3 years rule.

I think we're pretty sure FFP isn't applicable to League One, so our losses this year shouldn't matter? Let's suppose they do. Assuming the most pessimistic numbers, our turnover this year was £2.5m matchday, £3m broadcast revenue, and £3m commercial: £8.5m. (I forget exactly, but I think it's mentioned in our accounts that £3.5m of our £5m commercial income is from Venky's, so I'd guess our commercial income can't have fallen that much). Let's assume Mowbray wasn't including staff wages in his £8.5m quote, so add £2m to that. High operating expenses of £11m. Net £1.5m spend on transfer fees: works out to a ~£15m loss at most. (Certainly gargantuan losses for League One!)

16/17 accounts had us at a loss of £3.8m, 15/16 a loss of £1.5m. So, shakily assuming our League One losses matter and being very pessimistic about our League One revenues, that's £20m of losses over three years. Well within the £39m limit...

A few ways I could hazily imagine we're on our way to another transfer embargo:

1) Our losses before player trading in 15/16 and 16/17 were £15.5m and £13.6m. If FFP, for whatever reason, doesn't count transfer profits (I don't know the details), our underlying losses in the last three years have been more like £40-45m

2) Venky's have still had to regularly pump money into the club via share capital - perhaps some violation has arisen because of that? (No idea)

3) There's some way we've breached League One's rules. But it's well-established owner injections can be counted as turnover under the wage-to-turnover 60% restriction and there are other possible exemptions, so I can't imagine it's that...

So I'd have to agree with other posters that this could only make sense if it was in a specific context of say "we can't spend £10m on transfer fees and £30m on wages next year or we'd be heading to a transfer embargo"...

15 hours ago, Oldgregg86 said:

Anyone thinking we can sign the likes of Alex song are in for a very disappointing summer

Haha, very much agreed on Alex Song...

However, as a slight counterpoint, it's worth remembering that there is a bit of relative 'prestige' to the Championship. I just took a quick look and the average revenue per club is roughly similar to the top leagues in Japan, Mexico, and the Netherlands. (Our own revenue will be more like an average top division Danish or Portuguese side...) It's not a blot on the resume like League One could be considered by some players.

Now, we're not going to be one of the high-rollers looking to steamroll the league into the Premier League like a Newcastle, Aston Villa, etc. and we'll have to spend wisely (signing potentially over-the-hill former stars on pricey contracts is thus probably a terrible idea), but there is a bit more room for, let's call it 'fanciful imagination' when discussing potential player targets compared to last summer!

17 minutes ago, JHRover said:

There's a story in the Guardian today about Burton Albion and their potential survival in the Championship against all the odds. That story reports that their annual wage bill is around £8 million and their average crowds are around 4,700.

Earlier this week Mowbray mentioned in one interview that our wage bill is around £8.5 million with some clubs upwards of £40 million.

If those figures are accurate then it is both pleasing and worrying. Pleasing because it tells me that the big earners are gone and we're at a low base level now, but it is also worrying because we've reached a stage where we're in the same ball park as Burton Albion in terms of the money we're paying out on players despite their crowds being less than half of ours and we will have to increase it back up substantially if we're going to compete.

I don't really understand how with an annual wage bill of just a bit more than Burton's that our losses can be so much greater, particularly as our club revenues ought to be drastically higher (maybe not this season but certainly when at the same level).

Our turnover will likely be about £15-£18m in the Championship versus maybe £10-£11m in League One. Burton only had revenue of £11m in the Championship last year.

Mowbray might be excluding staff wages, which would add £1-£2m (I'm still quite surprised we're that low after £22m last year, but I guess League One was the final kick in reorienting our wage structure!).

Also, our 'other expenses' tend to be fairly high, which is to be expected with our larger stadium, better training facilities, etc. (and maybe we're just inefficiently run too!) I think they were only something like £6.5m last year but that was a one-off exception and they've been more like £10m/year. Burton other expenses were only £2.3m last year.

It'll be interesting to see how much we've actually lost this year... if turnover is £10m, wages £8.5-£10m, other expenses £8m, player trading netting out to -£1m... that suggests we've lost £7.5-£9m this year.

I see Venky's having three 'choices', which is dependent on the losses they're willing to absorb/how they're able to weather the debt:

1) "Go for it" and incur a wage bill of £20m+. This would mean a wages-to-turnover ratio of ~110%-140%. This would put us in the top third of wages-to-turnover ratios in the Championship, but only roughly a median wage bill. (I doubt this will happen, and it's probably not all that prudent...)

2) "Reasonably competitive expenditure", incurring a wage bill of £14-£16m. This would be in line with the likes of Wigan, Ipswich, Brentford, PNE,  maybe Millwall. So a wages-to-turnover ratio of 80%-105%, which is roughly median for the Championship, and wages that would be in the bottom third. (I think the most likely course)

3) "Scrape a profit": wage bill of £10m at most, which would be in line with Rotherham and Burton in both wage level and wages-to-turnover, and thus bottom of the Championship expenditure. We'd maybe break even or have a modest £1m proft. (There's been minimal indication of this occurring, but we are ultimately subject to Venky's whims...)

I suppose there could be a "splurge and gamble on PL" option, where we spend like crazy and pray for promotion before our losses cripple us again or we get hit by FFP again (which is a fairly common Championship strategy...), but I doubt that'll happen (nor should it really...).

All of the above would be altered by some player sales too, say Lenihan or, heaven forbid, Dack...

1 hour ago, alcd said:

With gate receipts/commercial income of only £7m and TV money of £5m that implies a trading loss of more than £10m. Venkys won't have that.

Commercial income should be about £7.5-£8m (non-parachute payment clubs get £7.6m by default), gates will probably be about £3.5m, commercial £5m. Hence I think our baseline turnover will be about £16m (£18m optimistically). £15m wage + £8m other expenses, that's a £7m loss, or £12m loss at £20m wages. Those are 'reasonable/typical' losses for a Championship club. I'd certainly guess we're looking at a £15m wage bill rather than £20m, but just a guess. The latter would more likely be needed if we have a reasonably serious promotion push in mind.

It's hard to predict what kind of losses Venky's will 'allow'... they incurred £30m+ losses for a couple years, then seemingly needed to shut the taps off once parachute payments ran out. It probably depends on how they're able to hand the debt, which is anyone's guess, plus FFP considerations.

Interesting to hear Mowbray quote our current wage bill at £8.5m! Maybe he's not including backroom staff, etc., but that's much lower than the lower estimate I've bandied around of £12m! Also quite a drop from £22m last year.

I'd guess we'll aim for a £15-£20m wage bill next year, so that gives us a fair bit more flexibility than I had thought.

2 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

You've never worked in a school then ?

I thought your snark was a bit much for a reasonable maths error, but I suppose my snark was uncalled for too.

So never mind me. Apologies.

34 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

400 to 4000 is a 1000% increase ? Not when I went to school.

I didn't know arithmetic was a generational thing.

25 minutes ago, Tom said:

Surely you’d offer Graham a contract ahead of Conway?

Graham's got an option for next year, so I'm assuming they'll pick that up if they can't figure out a contract extension. And I'd be hesitant to give him more than one more year anyway given fitness concerns.

(but, yes, definitely keep Graham around for next year!)

9 hours ago, Tom said:

This is very refreshing to hear, if the players out of contract want to stay and they aren’t in Mowbrays first team plans it sounds like they’ll have to accept a fair chunk less

 

https://audioboom.com/posts/6831172-hopeful-and-confident-rovers-boss-tony-mowbray-on-the-futures-of-his-out-of-contract-players

Interesting to hear him mention Connor Mahoney's tribunal is still to come up... probably won't amount to much, but perhaps nice to hear that's money coming in going forward rather than money already spent.

Conway's the only out of contract player who should be considered for a new deal but only if he's up for fairly low wages and a backup winger role. He may be at a point in his career where he can accept that and seems like a good locker room presence. He's not standing in the way of any youngsters as we're pretty light on the wings, but may depend on Mowbray's summer transfer plans. Wouldn't be a huge loss if he departs in the end.

Hope we're able to ship off Gladwin, Whittingham, and maybe Caddis to free up some wages, but may be easier said than done.

I certainly don't disagree that we need to be a well-run, efficient club to be somewhat financially stable (although most Championship clubs lose a ton of money, turning back to the parachute payments havers vs have nots...) and successful in the Championship, but thought I'd add some numbers and context to the discussion. The Championship's financial landscape has/will change a lot with the increase in parachute payments.

The focus should be on wage expenditure, not just transfer fees. While we're probably paying absurd wages by League 1 standards this year (the accounts up to March 2017 had our wage bill at £22.6m, so maybe we're down to £15m-ish in League 1? Hard to say...), that's still a pittance in the Championship.

For reference, the always great SwissRamble is going through PL and Championship 16-17 accounts as they come in. This chart shows the wage bills for 16-17 that have been reported so far: https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/977106429168545792 After some inflation this year,  the typical 'competitive' wage bill (with exceptions that have already been pointed out!) is probably ~£35m (about the same as our wage bill the first couple years after relegation), but then the likes of Aston Villa, Norwich, and Newcastle can handle wage bills of £50-60m+.

(You can also see Cardiff isn't necessarily the best example of a 'low-spending' club when in 16-17 they had a wage bill of £29m to go along with £29m in revenue and incurred a loss of £21m. I suspect their finances aren't much better for 17-18 as they've had a net transfer spend of ~£10m, plus/minus loan fees)

On a related note, the difference in revenues is getting staggering too: https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/977106343139119104 We may hit ~£25m revenue back in the Championship, but parachute payment clubs now have revenues of £75m+.

It's obviously not impossible for a lower-spending team to have some success in the Championship, and posters have already highlighted the right role models for us (Preston, Bristol City, maybe Millwall this year), and revenues of course don't decide everything with notable examples, but I suspect the Championship may slowly drift to have vs have nots with the increasing dominance of parachute payment revenues (think of it like Champions League revenue...) It won't be as '"easy" as when we were last in it. I think our parachute payments were something like £10-12m/year when we went down, versus £41m/year today.

I think Venky's have 'proven' they're willing to keep up a £15m+ wage bill in League 1, and probably incur £10m+ losses doing so, but are they willing to pay a £30m+ wage bill in the Championship and possibly incur £20m+ losses again (plus FFP considerations...)? Hard to say. (Hence I agree with the posters in this thread that we need to see the successful low-spending clubs like Preston or Bristol City as role models)

17 hours ago, bazza said:

The two CMs for me would be Travis and Lenihan in place of Smallwood and Bennett.

Ah, yes, the Smallwood-Bennett pairing that was not long ago the cure to all of our midfield problems... we hardly knew ye.

Huh, looks like we got ~£1m for Marshall then.

Interesting that our net spend has actually only been £300k since March 2017.

So, roughly, we got £500k for Steele, spent £750k on Dack, leaving £50k for Samuel, Gladwin, Hart, and Leutwiler? I could see the latter three being frees, but Samuel was probably more than £50k... And we may owe up to £1.75m on top of that; likely promotion-related clauses.

Perhaps the compensation for Mahoney has been agreed and received. I recall Samuel's fee being estimated at £250-£500k at the time, so perhaps we got £200k-£450k in compensation for Mahoney? 

Loans may tilt things a bit too if fees are involved.

2 hours ago, JHRover said:

Even the likes of Cardiff and Bristol City going for automatic promotion I would be surprised if they were spending even close to what we are on salaries.

Took a look out of curiosity.

Bristol City spent £17.9m in 16/17 on wages and salaries (on £14.3m in turnover...), and that team struggled. Looks like they had a net transfer spend of £7m+ this past transfer window, so that's likely to have risen. Good on them for their early form, but hardly an example of prudent finances. And not to call them out, as this is the norm in the Championship.

Cardiff's 16/17 accounts aren't out yet, but they were spending £25.4m on wages in 15/16 (down from £30.8m the year before). Somewhat similar trajectory as us financially as their parachute payments are running out/have run out too. Turnover was £37.6m in 14/15, £31.4m in 15/16. A wage-to-turnover ratio less than 100% is impressive by Championship standards (chart below, which actually has Cardiff at 101%, so might be a mix-up), but they lost £10m that year. 

Would certainly be interesting to know what Rovers are spending on wages now. A little cash was splashed in the summer, but it was a relatively small amount compared to what teams are having to spend in the Championship these days.

I thought to check a couple comparisons: Wolves in 13-14 and Wigan in 15-16. Both similar to Rovers in being teams that had somewhat recently been in the Premier League, so were "used" to higher wages, and then tumbled to League 1. Both also ended up getting automatic promotion, partly due to being willing to spend a little bit in League 1 (amidst many outgoings too) - Wolves had ~£3m of incomings; Wigan £1m+.

Wolves' wage costs dropped from £31.1m to £20.5m. Wigan saw their wage costs drop from £26m to £11.9m.

It'd purely be speculation as to the relegation clauses Rovers' players had, but those two examples suggest we're spending more like £10m-£14m this year. Certainly still exorbitant by League 1 standards, but I'd again suggest we may be on 'stabler' financial footing in League 1 compared to our years in the Championship.

26 minutes ago, OJRovers said:

The cash flow for the year to 31 Mar 17 included over £10million of cash received from player sales (Duffy, Marshall, etc). This covered most of the £16million operating cash loss.

Assuming the wages go down a bit this season, but revenue plummets even more, with cash spent on Dack etc the operating loss is likely to be the same, so £16 million(ish) cash to find. They’ve already put it a few million in share capital, but massive gap remains.

I did some guesstimates earlier in the year and suspect we're on track to lose more like £5m-£7m this year (before player trading) versus last year's £18m loss (before player trading). Still not great, and huge losses by League 1 standards, but I suspect Venky's isn't as troubled by such losses compared to the £30m+ losses of yesteryear... Obviously still not a sustainable business, but few football clubs really are.

The likes of Dack, Smallwood, Whittingham, etc. cost a fair bit by League 1 standards, but they probably still represent a decline in average wages relative to the Championship. Relegation clauses and Lowe, Akpan, Guthrie, Henley, etc. leaving should drop our wages a fair bit. Net transfer spend was probably under a £1m after Steele's sale.

As you said, largely same old, same old, but, somewhat perversely, I'd contend League 1 isn't the gargantuan money loser that Championship football has become. Dropping from the Championship to League 1 isn't as dramatic as the end of parachute payments.

The accounts have the same assurance that Venky's has sufficient funds to cover the next 12 months "regardless of whether [the Bank of India financing facility] is renewed at March 2018", etc, etc. No significant change in the overall predicament, as far as I can see at least.

Turnover down £5.7m; wages and operating expenses down £6.5m = a reduced net operating loss, hurray!...

edit: re: non-Venky's debt, overdraft is still at 2.65% + LIBOR, while the 'other loan' of £1.8m that we were paying 8.6% on was paid off in April. Doesn't look like any additional loans were needed, unlike when that £400k at 14% loan was needed in 15/16 (and paid off back in June 2016). These accounts won't have anything on any active loans we've taken on after that.

In a scenario where we get promoted and Chapman plays a strong part in that, and he's happy at the club, it's not hard to imagine us trying to make him a permanent signing next year. Consider it an extended audition. Loans are always going to be a lower risk than a permanent signing, just with lower potential long-term pay-off. Imagine if Chapman was playing like ****. We'd be pretty relieved he'd be heading back to Middlesbrough as soon as January. Same for Antonsson before he managed a few goals.

Even if he doesn't stick around, if Chapman turns out to be the marginal factor in pushing us on to promotion, that's a loan well taken.

Now, if we don't get promoted, Chapman goes back to Middlesbrough despite excelling here, and his playing time thus only served to stand in the way of players we're hoping to develop long-term, yes, obviously that's a worse case scenario. But it's a bit much to treat that as the reality today.

42 minutes ago, JAL said:

If Nyambe is the best right back then it just goes to show the shocking lack of standards at Rovers when he's putting in performances likes he's playing with a flea in his ear.

More fool those buying the ticket to praise this kind of performer !

For this board's sake, it's probably about time that you definitively said whether you're a fan of Nyambe or not.

2 hours ago, Earlydoors said:

What's happened to Corry Evans?

I always thought he was a tidy midfield battler who allowed the team to play.

Is he injured ?

Would be disappointed if he's fallen out with TM as he seemed a solid pro

It was reported a few weeks ago that he's been shut down for the year. He's had a groin problem for a couple years now and those don't heal easily. They can feel fine for weeks in training but then give way again as soon you try to push it in a game. Despite the above suggestion, he didn't make it into the latest NI squad due to his injury.

It's a shame as I agree and think he's our best midfielder. He and Guthrie had a brief midfield pairing earlier in the year, maybe around Nov-Dec?, and I thought it was the best midfield we had all year, but then injuries of course ended that... both are decent midfielders on their day. The sad thing is players of their quality are only really slumming it with us because of their injury woes. Same story with Mulgrew.

Just now, 1arC said:

I have seen the odd conference game on BT sport this year and the standard is pretty good. Like you say, playing against men, will certainly toughen him up. I have asked my pal to keep me update on how Matty Platt gets on, for the remainder of the season. Hopefully being part, of a successful side will help, as Barrow have a fair chance of a play off spot.

Connor Thomson is also on loan at Barrow.

Checking now, for whatever reason Thomson wasn't in the lineup for Barrow last night (they were short a man on the bench, so maybe he's hurt?), but had started a game a couple weeks ago, otherwise sitting on the bench.

Looks like it was Platt's first start. Oddly came on as a sub in the 46th minute the game before, though was then subbed off in the 67th minute... Maybe hurt, though he managed the full 90 minutes last night.

Checking on our other loanee, Wharton, he started in Cambridge's game on Saturday after sitting a few after being subbed at the half in his previous start, which was a bit worrying. I certainly have hopes for the lad, but I didn't quite get the enthusiasm for throwing him to the wolves this year. Notwithstanding our defensive struggles under Coyle and him scrambing a goal in the League Cup, but a 19 year old who had reportedly had some injuries and I remember reading he had some tough games for the u23s this year too, so some time in League 2 should do him well.

Just for references sake, glancing at Mowbray's time at Coventry (purely looking at the record, no idea about context actual context, which I gather was generally less than ideal, etc.):

Joined in March 2015 with Coventry in 20th place. Went 5-4-5 the rest of the year (a pace that would've put them T11th over the course of the year), and they finished 17th.

2015-16, Coventry had a very strong first half, being in 1st place as late as the end of November with a record of 11-6-3. However, they had a pretty miserable run-in, going 8-6-12 to finish the year in 11th.

2016-17, pretty awful with Mowbray resigning after starting the year 0-6-4 and dead last. May not entirely have been his fault given the apparent turmoil at Coventry, and while Coventry had a brief respite after he left, they've since had 7- and 5-game losing streaks, and are 9 points from safety (though they now have Yakubu who will surely save them).

Just now, DE. said:

In comparison, Coyle's overall win % is 39.32%. Overalls arguably aren't a great stat to use though, as Lambert is only 38.9% (Rev will like that), and Bowyer is 35.63%.

Always struck me as a bit odd that draws are often effectively ignored in evaluating manager's this way (I get it, who enjoys settling for draws and they don't exactly get you cups/promoted/etc). 40% tends to strike me as pretty 'typical' number for a managers that manage to stick around football, albeit not with the same team...

Just now, JAL said:

Look forward to seeing Stefan Mols to see these improvements in him as for Thomson he looks stronger than Connor Mahoney from that Burnley under 23 video.

You may want to double check his passport...

Cham and Green seem to have disappeared as of late

I watched Cham play at stockport in November and was ther best player by a mile. Not seen him since.

Speak of the devil. Cham back to National League North with Hednesford Town on a month-long loan. http://www.rovers.co.uk/news/article/modou-cham-hednesford-town-2988509.aspx

Apparently been set back by a calf injury.