37 minutes ago, bluebruce said:

'Won't somebody please think of the XG?!?'

No. I'm a fan of stats and data, but I think XG is the most useless one around (well, after possession). Imagine saying 'Yeh you're in 4th and we're 16th, but what about the XG?' I mean come on. If it was so important, we wouldn't be 4th would we? There was an argument to point to our low XG earlier in the season, when league position can be a bit deceptive, but for crying out loud it's March!

We're where we are because we've been one of the better sides in the league over the course of 35 games. You're where you are because you haven't. We're positive because we're on the back of two excellent performances and a 5-game winning streak that includes a Premiership scalp. We're talking about the playoffs because we are in the playoff spots!

You're in quite good form too, and you have home advantage. So if you do edge a win, or we do, or it's a draw, none of those outcomes should be a surprise to anyone. Either team winning by more than one would be a bit surprising, this should be a tight game that could go either way. My feathers aren't ruffled btw, I just thought it was rather silly to talk about XG given the greater context, or to be puzzled why we might be in a positive mindset. Sheff United fans were puzzled by our positivity too, then we beat them. With respect, they're a lot better than you are. But as I said, this will be a tough game, and you've probably as much chance at the 3 points as we do. All depends which Rovers and which Stoke turn up on the day, as usual in this league.

Well I don’t wish to hijack the thread too much but I’d be a little concerned about next season if I were you, unless JDT can improve your processes of course, which he may well do. xG is the most reliable (long-term) predictor of outcomes there is and at the moment you’re a massive anomaly. A full season is still a small sample.

But there are plenty other factors, things can change fast (maybe already are) and I wish you the best, I’d like to see you back in the Prem and hope you make it. And I’m not for a second suggesting any of this will have any particular bearing on tonight’s match. I’m used to us being shite - I’m happy we seem to be finally, incrementally, improving but if form is anything to go by we're nailed on for a loss to nil tonight 🙄

4 minutes ago, Sweaty Gussets said:

You seem to either score 3+ goals or none. I'm hoping you're due the latter tonight!

We are! 😁

33 minutes ago, J*B said:

I’m going to start selling magic beans to XG believers. 

Here’s a beanstalk for you to climb if you dare 😜

3 minutes ago, superniko said:

We're not over-performing to chance creation, (our G and xG FOR are pretty similar), we're over-performing to xGA i.e. not conceding as many as some stats would suggest.

However, we're a different team over the last 2 months to that prior, we're playing much better football, have a more balanced and settled 11 and certain players are really stepping up (some of which wouldn't make the squad 6 months ago).

Whilst, we rightly go into this as underdogs (can we do it on a snowy night in Stoke?), nobody on here would be surprised with 3 points, which should pretty much cement us for the playoffs with 10 games to go and 61 points.

 

Right, I wasn’t sure about that.. thanks for the clarification.

Neil really improved our rolling xGD stats and we’re just starting to see some reflection of that in results. I feel somewhat optimistic, which makes a real change after the last six years or so.

Two teams in reasonably good form then, hopefully a decent game.

Good day Blackburn Roverers, long time no post. 
 

Thought I’d have a scan of your board ahead of the game and, without wishing to dive in ruffling feathers off the bat, I was rather taken aback at the positivity, given your team’s stats this season.. seeing people talking about the playoffs and “Stoke are 16th for a reason” etc… is there not a bit of an xG-shaped elephant in the room here? You’re doing well but over-performing on your chance creation to an extent that I think could be described as a freak occurrence - is it a concern…? maybe I’m missing something.

Aaanyway that said, as to the game we’re awful at home and generally seem to win one then lose one, so you’ve every right to expect a win. One thing I’d say is that if you come to attack we might stand a chance. The teams that routinely beat us at home tend to set up with a “low block”, as our manager likes to say, and nick the odd goal on the break. 
 

Maybe it’ll be a good game if you come looking for the win. We’ve actually started to create chances and score some goals in 2023, which is a novel development. No need to worry about Gayle mind, his technique has completely deserted him in his old age.

Our sub goalie is also a worry. Big blow to lose Sarkic so soon, he’d improved us a lot.

Safe travels to those going, mind how you go if it’s icy and enjoy the evening.

F knows how we managed to hold on to that and wtf we were doing with our subs I dunno, you were walking through us all half but we didn't put anyone on to get in the way. Looked like BBD should have had a pen too. Very fortunate on a number of counts. 

7 minutes ago, BankEnd Rover said:

I wouldn’t be too worried. We haven’t looked like scoring in 3 games. You look solid to be honest.

We look a different team from under O'Neill, thank god. HT changes for you, here we go...

Alright Rovers. Meant to drop in before this game but we’ve had a bit of a busy week 😬

I wouldn’t worry too much yet, as much as we look rejuvenated, a good half usually means we’re ripe to concede soon. 

2 minutes ago, AllRoverAsia said:

Talk sense not fucking garbage

Let me know when you have a copy of the rulebook in front of you and I'll direct you to the relevant section 😉

1 minute ago, jim mk2 said:

 

If it was a Stoke handball you'd be saying the opposite

This is a club in mourning. Please go away.

 

I really wouldn't mate, I'm a stickler for the rules. Not trying to rub anything in, believe me I know how you feel

Just now, bluebruce said:

Watch players' arms when they move on the pitch. When they have the ball, when they don't. Arms constantly go up, it's part of balancing the body. Zero intent, zero penalty.

That's not what the rule is. If the arm is in an "unnatural position" as defined by being outstretched from the silhouette of the body, it's classed as intentional handball no matter where the ball is struck from. It's why defenders defend crosses with their arms behind their backs. Awful decision from the ref.

1 minute ago, Exiled_Rover said:

How? Ball blasted at him from 2 yards away.

Doesn't make any difference. Arm outstretched well away from his body, stonewall penalty.

Looked like a penno that

6 minutes ago, Silas said:

🤷‍♂️ Your commentator. Said "..he's finally starting to win me over."

Always liked him as a player. 

Case of mistaken identity somewhere I think, or just a flustered choice of words. He's been flawless. 

edit [cue massive clanger from him to gift you a goal...]

15 minutes ago, Silas said:

Commentators on your channel saying similar. They can't believe their eyes.

Said they'd never seen Stoke do dinky little balls in the channels and round corners.

Also stunned that players that have been crap for ages suddenly look World class (Maja, Jaglielka).

It's almost like there's some factor that's making your team so good today. 🤔

Answers on a postcard to Tony. 

Point of order, Jagielka has been outstanding ever since he arrived

3 minutes ago, booth said:

Just think, if you had a Tony Mowbray team to play every week you could be champions of England.

Up for a manager swap? Might be a giggle

49 minutes ago, PotterLog said:

Eyup Rovers. Almost forgot we were playing today until just now.

Crucial game for you, absolutely fuck all in it for us as our wet pump of a season trickles to a soggy end. So I'll go for a comfortable 0-2 to us 😉

Turns out we're bloody brilliant! Dunno how we're not top of this league, we'll piss it next season E-I-E-I-E-I-O..... etc etc

Just now, Exiled_Rover said:

We're second bottom of the form table since Christmas - we managed to lose to the team that's bottom of said form table (and bottom of the actual table) on Friday.

Our crucial games ended over a month ago. 

Two bald men fighting over a comb then

Eyup Rovers. Almost forgot we were playing today until just now.

Crucial game for you, absolutely fuck all in it for us as our wet pump of a season trickles to a soggy end. So I'll go for a comfortable 0-2 to us 😉

20 minutes ago, Miller11 said:

If we had adequate attacking options you’d be right, but considering we don’t, plus what’s at stake and how few games are remaining, we’d be mad not to start him.

In that case I can understand the logic of the risk but you might well end up with an hour of a leggy ineffective player rather than 25 minutes of someone who can afford to be a bit more explosive and influence the game. Tricky one

You’d be mad to start him on Saturday. You can’t come back from two months of no football and immediately perform to your best level in two games in five days, on different sides of the world, with a 14-hour flight sandwiched in the middle. It was the wrong decision to start him last night, smacked of desperation.

Give him 25 mins from the bench on Sat.

2 hours ago, ben_the_beast said:

It's a complete joke. I could understand him making the bench. But if he wasn't fit enough to be in the squad a few days ago he's certainly not fit enough to be starting tonight. Chile have acted disgustingly. They should do one. 

And they kept him on for 80 minutes 😂

Well. He’s starting

On 26/03/2022 at 09:54, simongarnerisgod said:

they left him behind in chile,i doubt he`ll play in the uruguay game as he`s definately not fit

Hello all. All the talk coming from the camp is that they're hopeful he'll play to tonight. Recovery going well, Brazil was a bit too early but he's trained really well, etc etc. The gaffer has even said they'll "wait until the very last minute" in the hope of including him. If I had to bet I'd say he'll get on the pitch at some point.