Sam, i would probably play MotS. I did that last season when I had a game against the top team (I was third). It was my last chance to get to first.
See how the 4th is doing. If his team moral is down, maybe you can take advantage of that.
I usually play it calmly (jogar com calma in portuguese).
I won 0-9 and i saw the results of good team stamina. I scored 4 goals in the last 10 minutes.