8 minutes ago, superniko said:

I did factor that into my pricing of the final matches to be fair, felt I was generous to our rivals e.g. Plymouth favourites vs Hull, Wednesday favourites away at Sunderland, all things that wouldn't be the case if played on any other match-week. So the 23% if we get no more points does take all that into account.

For this weekend coming up we already have prices released so that's simple. If I go more aggressive/generous for our rivals on the final weekend I still can only get it to 30% chance (that's with Wednesday, Plymouth, Birmingham all going off shorter than 11/8 favourites which is unlikely.

Nice !

Didn't realise you had done that.

I feel less pessimistic now then after reading that.

4 hours ago, superniko said:

Yeah. I've just worked out the permutations (albeit prices are subjective on the last game of the season as we don't know who has anything to play for) to show what % chance we'd get relegated if we get 1 more point to take us to 50.

If we get 1 more point, it requires all the below to occur to relegate us (as Huddersfield and Rotherham will be unable to surpass us):

Plymouth 2+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD (53% chance of 2 or more points)

Birmingham 4+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW (24% chance of 4 or more points)

Wednesday 4+ Points (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW (30% chance of 4 or more points)

QPR 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (72% chance of 1 or more point)

Stoke 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (79% chance of 1 or more point)

All of the above happening I made 45/1 as the true price, so around 2% chance of relegation if we pick up 1 more point

 

If interested, I also worked out the above with Rovers getting 0 more points and I made that scenario 10/3 for us to be relegated i.e. if we get 0 more points then there is a 23% chance we'll be relegated. 

Good mathematics working that out. However if we factor in at this stage of season teams fighting for their lives will pull off freak results, I would guesstimate we have a 40 - 60% chance of being relegated if we don't pick up any points.

10 minutes ago, tomphil said:

Absolutely knew this would happen turning up 'must not lose' attitude.

Exactly, we have turned up with a passive attitude, thinking we don't need to win.

16 hours ago, JHRover said:

Fleck was a desperation stage gamble that ticked all the boxes for all the parties

Sheff Utd got shut and off their books and squad early.

Fleck got a shot at earning a longer deal here or impressing suffiently to attract interest from elsewhere.

Rovers got a quick fix at favourable cost to address a problem of their own making.

Unfortunately for us the risk was all on Rovers, because someone with his recent fitness record was always at risk of issues and so it has proven. 

But when you operate like this club has operated you get what you deserve. We wouldn't have needed Fleck if we hadn't taken the unprecedented step of loaning our captain (excellent fitness record) out in the first few days of the window

But when you are more interested in cutting costs than winning games these are the sort of decisions you get. We are now going to probably lose Championship status and all that goes with it as a result of such short-sightedness

 

Please forward to our CEO

38 minutes ago, rob_of_the_rovers said:

What's to stop some other team buying him instead if he does well enough?

We will have first dibs

30 minutes ago, islander200 said:

I'm not trying to do that obviously Broughton will have the final say but it will be be Kimberly finding the shortlist of players that come within budget and then onto Broughton and JDT to decide who to pursue 

I'm not saying Broughton is doing brilliant and there has been some poor signings but there is no team in the league challenging for the playoffs with the budget that he has and no strikers banging them in that cost anywhere near as little as Telalovic 

But imo when 1 million + has been spent then the buys haven't been bad and 2+ excellent in Szmodic and lesser extent Hyam but a very solid signing. 

Wahlstedt very poor so far 

And Telalovic is a work in progress but he cost peanuts 

Agree with your comments.

However its not like we spent 7 million on someone like Ellis Simms who has only managed to score 3 goals.

Why have we conceded the most goals in the league? I can't remember the last time we kept a clean sheet.

JDT has got the team playing good football at times, BUT the number of goals conceded is frightening! 

The backline hasn't changed much since last year, except for Leo coming in.

Has our bad form coincided with Leo starting? If it is we need to loan in a GK urgently in this window.

If not JDT MUST figure out what is wrong and sort it out urgently!!

46 minutes ago, Clive 62 said:

We’re being run as an academy club. First team results are less important than player development, promotion has never been the aim under this lot. It’s all about finding young promising players and making them better. No point having a player like Travis on the bench, might as well have him playing somewhere else so he’s in the shop window. Seems highly suspicious to me that we’ve suddenly got a raft of players fit mid January especially Gallagher just when we get a bid in for him. JDT had a look of someone yesterday  who is having his team ripped out from under him. Think getting rid of him would be pointless, they’ll only appoint someone to play the exact same way. Remember the quote from Mowbray, “I’m not a results based coach, I’m a development coach.” Think this is why they’ve taken the coach away from recruitment, JDT is powerless to prevent player sales. 
Who is setting the agenda tho, this is the question, who benefits from all the player trading, all along the academy funding has been the one constant throughout Venky’s tenure. Can’t get money for a new pitch, stadium maintenance or a young centre half though. I don’t buy that this is the best way to progress the club, sell a player + re invest like Brentford, not what’s happening +  I don’t buy the Indian authorities investigation meaning we have to cut the the budget in half either. JDT, Waggott, + GB have all been hired to fit in with the plan.

This might all be complete tosh, I’m not ITK, just a fan for over 50 years who’s sick of it + just wants his club back 😢

Venky’s out.

Strongly agree with your thoughts. Waggott said before start of season the aim is just to stay in the league! 

Would love to know if the defenders practice jumping, hustling, heading balls out, defending set pieces in training?

Or is it just passing on the ground, one touch, two touch etc?

No more kids please. If we're adding to the squad Experienced players only!

Ipswich Town sitting pretty in 2nd place. Ask yourself the question why would they want Travis?

Experience, Experience, Championship Experience!!

We can have all the best youth academy talents/loanees from the premier league, but without a few seasoned/experienced players playing in the first team (Sam Morsy has been brilliant for Ipswich and they added Travis to HELP their young team) our team can play the prettiest football, but won't be going anywhere near the playoffs!

The experience of Mulgrew, Graham and Elliott Bennett (wasn't best player in team) were instrumental in getting us promoted from league 1 under Mowbray. 

Football is a game of fine margins. Experienced players can really help see out games late on.

Criminal playing Dolan up front, would have been better giving Telelovic a Start.

He has missed quite a few easy chances in previous games when playing Left Forward

1 hour ago, ruggles1995 said:

we pass, and we pass, and pass, and we almost gift a goal away, and we pass, and we pass and pass, and we almost gift a goal away, we pass and we pass and we pass and we almost cross the ball BUT we pass, and we pass and we pass, and we almost gift a goal, and we pass and we pass and we almost cross the ball but we pass it out of play. then we pass then we pass, then we give the ball away and we concede. And we pass and we pass............................

 

we are so damn predictable it hurts. No teams need to do anything special. We literally only play the width of the 18 yard box, we only play through the lines, we have to go through the middle of there back line to try and score. We refuse to cross, we refuse to go long, we pass as if keep ball wins games, it bloomin hurts. Yes it looks good, yes we can keep the ball well, but you have an end goal = SCORE A GOAL! its like we will only shoot or put the ball in the box unless weve made some sort of sexy pass and move to get in the box. The last few mins in stoppage time i think we put 2 crosses in and itcaused chaos. Even with 30 seconds left in stoppage time we just passed the ball around the centre circle. 

 

sometimes just mix the blooming game plan up! the one goal kick that went long in the 2nd half hill won the header we got in the box had a shot blocked and won a corner. ONCE! just ONCE.  

 

JDT alll i ask for is to mix the game plan up to stop making us predictable. Use the width of the pitch thanks not just the width of the 18, there's a whole lot of grass out there. 

 

rant done,
Miserable Fan

Absolutely spot on! Mix the game up! Garrets goal against Cardiff came from a long ball

Noticed Coventry taking quite a few shots from outside the box and their goal resulted from reboundvof crossbar. Contrast that with us trying to pass our way into goals!

Apart from the Hill effort can anybody remember any shots from outside the area?

30 minutes ago, rovers11 said:

Blackburn are the best team we’ve played this season by some distance IMO. We’ve had to work very hard for this lead. #safc #rovers

We'll see this type of quote a lot this season. Opposition fans and managers will be very complimentary about us... yet many will beat us comfortably. I don't like us being the nice side that everyone likes to watch but are really easy to score and create chances against. Every time we've lost the ball in the final third in the last few games, the opposition has a free run at our defence, who are left horribly exposed. Our two best managers in the past 20 years - Hughes and Allardyce - both started by making us solid and hard to beat, and then adding the magic from there. 

The new signings have had zero impact so far which is also a problem. We're relying on the likes of Dolan and Markanday to make a difference, both are miles off it. Telalovic looked miles off the required level when he came on against Boro too, he couldn't even run. But hopefully he'll come good.

On the positive side, I do think a front line of Siggy, Ennis, Szmodics, and Moran is top 6 potential. Can we get them all on the same pitch on a regular basis? 

 

Its absolute madness to play so open expansive football especially when we dont have a proven striker.

Untill Sigurdsson and Ennis come into the starting line up and get a run of games i feel we should be bit more cautious about the style in which we play, including keeping Travis back for protection. 

Playing this open will get us relegated. We have to be able to keep clean sheets to pick up points, we are conceding far too many goals and dont seem to have a defensive SHAPE when the opposition team has the ball

1 minute ago, alcd said:

Denied late on by the woodwork at Sheffield and again today. That said the second half performance was poor and Luton were in easy control. Brereton has been useless since the World Cup break. 

Correct Brereton has been useless. I'd go as far and say we have been playing with 10 men in the last 10 games or so as Brereton has been absolutely !

2 minutes ago, superniko said:

See 91 minutes. Hyam is the liability playing JDT ‘football’

So frustrating!!!!

Why is Thomas not getting a game anymore? Has raw pace and crossing ability 

Thomas and hedges have done more in 5 mins than brereton and dolan for the whole game!

How many times has brereton given the ball away??

Just now, Miker said:

Need to make changes ASAP here. Dreadful.

Yes he needs to now.

Thomas on for directness and crossing 

The trio of Dolan, Smodicz and Gallagher are probably as hard working as any other forward lineup, completely suited to play high intensity pressing from the front. I know its not possible to play that way every game but would love to see the high pressing from front occasionally!