On 21/08/2020 at 18:12, Admiral Nelsen said:

Four Four Two agree that we've got a tough start!

 

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/championship-fixtures-released-efl-first-10-games-toughest-hardest-easiest-opening-matches

 

 

To avoid people going overboard about our prospects this season (what's that, "too late" I hear you say?!), it's probably worth reminding ourselves about now of the first page of this thread. Most of us agreed we had a tricky start to the season fixtures wise, and that was not just the view of Rovers fans but also externally as evidenced by Admiral Nelsen's research above.

And that was before we were aware of how decimated the squad would be due to injuries & covid...

So I say let's stay calm, there's much water to flow under the bridge yet. 

?

Haha, one of my better typo's!

"Strokers" are fox in the box types, like Andy Cole, Gary Lineker,  Robbie Fowler, Jordan Rhodes who score 20 goals a season consistently, but rarely touch the ball outside of the 18 yard box.

We don't have anyone like that amongst the first team squad; instead we have "forwards" who can score many different types of goals but don't hog the penalty area (Armstrong) or who score less goals but create for others & influence offensive play either from a deeper position (Dack, Brereton) or from a wide position (Elliot, Dolan, Brereton, Armstrong again). We also have Gallagher, who by rights probably ought to be the closest thing we have to a striker in a central role but he isn't played there (probably my biggest gripe with Mowbray) probably because that's where Armstrong has proved most effective since we ditched the Graham / Dack combination.

The problem with strikers is that unless they score they're seen by many as a but of a luxury, or as lazy & selfish & don't contribute to the team effort. Rhodes being the clear example; he's hammered by many on here for his all round game yet his scoring record was excellent.

Strikers tend not to fit a 433 as the system requires too much interchangability (is that a Dowieism?!) between the front 3. So we're reliant on the goals being spread relatively evenly across the front 3, the problem being at the moment it's only Armstrong who is getting them currently. If he can score another 10 this season (doable) & BB, Elliot, Dack & Gallagher score 35 between them (hopeful), with midfielders & defenders chipping in another 20-25 (doable) we'll not do too bad this season if we can tighten up defensively.

So yes, we have forwards, not strikers. That's my main point!

Tomorrow will be a tough game no doubt, especially without Armstrong added to all the other missing first teamers. A quick look on Boro's website suggests they have 3 or 4 unavailable from their squad, which is far more preferable to our 10 or 11.

In that context, a draw would be a good result. But we are still absolutely capable of a win against them despite that, and I find the pessimism on here - not just for this game but for the the season - quite unhealthy & dare I say worse than sitting next to my dad in the Riverside!!

Whilst that may be true simongarnerisgod and there are certainly weaknesses to work on, not many teams will be as ruthless in taking advantage of them as Watford, Bournemouth,  Swansea etc. Nor will they be as able to repel us offensively.

I just think there's more to be positive about than not in the current situation, whilst accepting there's room for improvement.

31 minutes ago, USABlue said:

Closest thing we have to a beast is our Trav and he's out for a while.

Well according to the club website, his rehab is going better than expected, so hopefully that's promising. We absolutely mustn't rush him back though.

For reasons beyond TM's control we're without Kaminski, Ayala, Douglas, Travis, Johnson, Rothwell & Dack. I reckon 100% of us would choose at least 5 of those 7 players in our first 11.

On top of that, we have support players such as Bell & Bennett unavailable. We've barely had a fit left back available in 2020.

These aren't excuses, they're reasons. I doubt other clubs have had such significant absences to cope with, and against that background obtaining consistency & momentum is nigh on impossible. Yes despite that, we're competing in games even against the toughest opposition in this division, but just not getting crucial things right or the rub of the green; every defensive mistake is being punished. I don't think Kaminski or Pears could've done much about 90% of the goals we've conceded.

Furthermore, we've had some of the toughest games too; away at Watford, Bournemouth, Swansea, home to Cardiff - all pre season top 6 favourites. We've lost to 4 of the the current top 6, including the runaway league leaders. Our next game is against another of them, in Boro. 

On the flip side, we've hammered our other opponents; there are far more opponents of that calibre in this division than your Watfords, Bournemouths & Swanseas. I'd be more worried if we weren't competing in games, or if we'd been losing to the likes of middling clubs like QPR, Brum, Millwall etc. But we're not, so I can still see the positives going forwards.

Mowbray isn't immune from criticism in my eyes. Gallagher isn't being played effectively, Davenport should be given a chance ahead of Evans, especially if Trybull is in a middle 3. Some substitutions appear strange. But to my mind these are consequences that flow from the initial adversity of unavailable players, and every manager at every club suffers fan criticism for such things, such is their lot.

I know I'll get labelled a happy clapper for this, that's fine. I prefer to think however that I am being even-handed and offering context to the recent run of bad results. It's not black and white, however many might paint it to be. And there's still a long, long way to go this season. 

Chin up everyone! 

I didn't watch the match and have only seen brief highlights on YouTube. The stats suggest it was a pretty even game, though I know they can be misleading.

I bet Mowbray is tearing his hair out at what is going on. I don't agree with the Gally out wide thing & nor do I think Evans deserves the starts he's been given, but those issues aside he has been massively unfortunate. 

We're competing in every game, but players are either making stupid individual errors defensively (eg. Douglas, JRC & Lenihan v Reading), suffering huge misfortune (eg. Lenihan slipping when he went to challenge Ayew yesterday), or making the wrong choices up front & not making their keeper work enough.

We've got a good squad overall, most of us agree that, but he's not been properly able to utilise it due to illness & injury, which is beyond his control. I'm not saying he ought to have forever, he should be accountable, but the signs are there that this can be a successful season if we just persevere in finding some consistency at both ends of the pitch. There's still plenty of time to go, if we weren't competing I'd feel differently but we are, we just need consistency & momentum.

I remember in L1 feeling similarly, we stuck at it then & found that consistency. I think we can do that here, though I could be wrong of course...

Updates on here from anyone able to watch would be much appreciated ?

It certainly was a dampener on enthusiasm last night. Totally gutted at the naivety shown defensively. All their goals came from glaring individual errors (Douglas for the 1st, Lenihan & JRC for the 2nd & 3rd, & Lenihan for the 4th).  We will not achieve any success whilst being so generous to the opposition, especially ones so clinical as Reading (and before them Watford & Bournemouth; some of the finishing we have faced has been top notch).

Whilst I have some sympathy with the view TM can't set up a defence, those players named (especially Douglas & Lenihan, being as experienced as they are) need to take a long hard look at themselves. They just should not be making those types of errors so frequently.

The real disappointment is that having conceded so early in daft circumstances, we got immediately back on level terms (to our credit) but then committed defensive suicide again. 

I don't know if it's a positive or not, but the games come thick & fast this season, so there's no time for the squad to dwell. Maybe we're better away when pressure is off & we can do one over Swansea to put this debacle immediately behind us. Fingers crossed it's just one of those days, but it does seem to be becoming a bit too regular a feeling.

Credit where it's due, Reading were very good. Absolutely clinical & confident on the ball. They must be cockahoop with their start, but it's still early days yet, plenty if time for them to fall back down to earth. But I'd rather be sat where they are than where we are just at this moment...

I'm speechless. Keystone cops defending from Douglas, JRC & Lenihan in particular. 

Of course!! ?

A classic "must score first" scenario this one. If we don't it could be a long night,; they've beaten Cardiff & Watford in their run to 1st place so cant be taken lightly. Despite the suggestion they've been lucky, there must be more to it than that; their performance here last season & their 2nd goal on Sat show there's no shortage of ability there, and we know what Joao can do if motivated.

That said, I believe we have enough to give them defensive nightmares. It's imperative that we get off to a strong start, front foot from the off, high press, incisive penetrating balls forward through the lines, let BB & Elliot run at 'em and draw the fouls for Holtby & Douglas set pieces. We have many more options than we used to and must utilise them from the first whistle. 

Personnel-wise I would keep it as close to the Cov starting 11. Hope Kaminski is ok as I know little about Pears (not a criticism, just better the devil you know). If Ayala is deemed fit I would leave him on the bench for now as Lenihan & Williams did nothing wrong & play well together.

Both Derby & Coventry have -8 goal differences; our 4 goal wins at their home grounds (kind of, in Cov's case) inflicted half of them. Wycombe have a -13 goal difference, of which we accounted for 5 at Ewood.

Each of them has played 7 games, so in their other games Derby & Cov average approx -0.6 per game, Wycombe Approx -1.3. So yes, other teams have beaten them and they may be near the bottom of the division now, but our wins are a key reason why and no-one else has beaten any of them anywhere near as emphatically.

Does that make us flat track bullies? Maybe if looked at in isolation, but then if you add in that we played away at Watford & Bournemouth and gave them their toughest games, albeit leaving without a point, then I think that points to something of more substance.

Time will tell of course; bring on Reading I say!

As often, we're losing the balance of this debate. IMO we're not real challengers for top 2 in this division nor can we expect to be top 6, as we still have too many faults in crucial aspects of the gam at both ends of the pitch.

But that said we're not way off either; out of 7 games, I think we've put in 5 good overall performances, 1 average one and 1 poor one. That has to bode well as whilst it's points that win prizes, good performances are more likely to bring points than average and poor ones. 

If we can just find some consistency at the back (i.e. avoid silly mistakes or 3 goal deficits) and be more clinical in front of goal, then we can be properly excited I think; but they are quite big issues to solve, hopefully the way the new lads played yesterday makes that more likely.

Maybe Watford did have 2 or 3 more gears to go up to, but isn't it a fact that we stopped them from being able to find those gears through the way we played? I don't know for sure as I only saw the last 40 mins due to ifollow issues, but the stats (besides the main one) back that theory up.

If you add that theory to the view of Watford's manager that we were the best team they've played, and Bournemouth's managers similar views as referred to on Quest last night, then it gains further credence. After all, they're not going to say those things publicly just to stroke our ego are they? 

Yes we need to be more clinical at both ends of the pitch (even yesterday we missed a hatful of chances before getting a 2nd; had they equalised it would have been much tougher) but to refer to us as having played poorly at Watford is way over critical IMO.

4 hours ago, AllRoverAsia said:

Have Reading opted for a fast build?

A bit unsporting 

Very funny!

I'm guessing (hoping) that their assault on the summit is built on far less solid foundations than ours, but I guess we'll see. After all, weren't Charlton flying this time last season before dropping like a stone into L1?

Like that team, some good ambition there, let's just hope the back 5 work well together & get support defensively from the midfield 3; the signs with Trybull are good...

I think we all know this is the defining season for Mowbray.

If he gets top 6, whether or not we get promoted, he will definitely be kept on unless he chooses to leave, and deservedly so.

If we miss out on the top 6, then I think it will be time to try something different, especially if here is little or no improvement on last season's performance.

So far this season, there are strong signs of progress in terms of style of play, but also still some of the same weaknesses. The key here is that we have strong players yet to come into the fold, who should improve our options & bring with them a winning mentality.

We've had 6 league games, which have seen 4 strong performances overall, but only brought 2 wins. Thankfully 2 if those were away at probably the strongest teams in the division.  I'm pretty sure we've enough about us to win those types of games against weaker opposition.

The Cardiff & Forest games were disappointing, no doubt.  But I can see Douglas, Trybull & Harvey (and in a month or so, Dack) being the difference in those games and thus helping unlock 2 banks of 4.

There's cause to be hopeful I think. Nothing is won or lost after 6 games in any season, least of a this one.

Decent line up I'd say, glad Holtby us back, hopefully he splits up the Johnson / Evans partnership & they each link well with him. Some decent pace up front, solid (of late) back 4.

We've another game on Sat, sure we'll see Douglas & Trybull then. Good options. 

COYB

8 hours ago, Silas said:

21st October 2014: My wife was rushed into hospital for an emergency C-section due to a potentially dangerous placental abrasion. After a crazy few hours, I was dumped in a room with a newborn baby girl in my arms while the medics stitched her up. Dazed and confused, I sat there wondering how I was gonna look after this wrinkly alien, and then a thought popped in my head - We're playing tonight!

Cradling the alien in one arm like a rugby ball, I shifted in my seat and fished into my pocket for my phone. It's HT, 0-0 against Birmingham. A midwife came in to check on things, scowled at me pissing about on my phone, and promptly left in silent disapproval.  

Within minutes, everything started going our way. Ben Marshall scored, Brum had a player sent off, and we went on to win the game 1-0 (by which time my wife had been wheeled in like a drugged up zombie from the epidural). 

I looked down at my newborn and thought - You're a good luck charm you! 

Bear in mind we'd kept 2 clean sheets in 14 before that day. And it was 9 matches following before we kept another. 

 

Since then we've had 2 more matches on 21st October, 0-0 Derby 2015, 3-0 Portsmouth 2017. So the overall record for my good luck charm reads played 3 matches, Rovers 4 goals, opponents 0. Which is fairly impressive considering the teams defensive abilities over that period. 

If the run continues, hopefully we win tomorrow, and we win to nil. The last time we beat Watford away? Which was to nil too (0-1). Feb 2001, the season we got promoted to the Premier League. 

Summary: Win tomorrow and I will be hopeful of us getting promoted. Win to nil tomorrow and I will be 100% convinced we're getting promoted. Lose tomorrow and my daughter is immediately getting booted out the house as she will no longer be of any use to me........

Superb stuff!

To pin any kind of blame on Kaminski for that goal would be extremely harsh. He was completely wrong footed by the deflection which took it in by the post; had he saved it,it would have been akin to Gordon Banks' v Brazil!

Just for a bit of context, whilst accepting that Rovers didn't play especially well today, below are the stats from Forest v Bristol, Lamouche's last match.

I don't think that their performance today was that far removed from their performance last time out. I suspect they're in a false position and will be up there or thereabouts come May. So let's not be too despondent, we'll have better days.

I thought we deserved a draw today, certainly not a cruel defeat in that manner, but then we were the authors of our own downfall too.

Sigh.