If (IF) we do fail against Coventry, then we’ll be cheering on Hull vs Ipswich at 8pm for various reasons:

- Likely means Leicester have the league wrapped up before our match and they may rotate / not try as hard

- Hull still competing with Norwich for 6th meaning they’ll be going for a result vs Plymouth and also Norwich have to get a result vs Birmingham.

- Added bonus that Ipswich will still likely pip Leeds even if they do lose to Hull 

6 minutes ago, Waggy76 said:

They may not win but QPR, are on a different planet to Rovers in an attacking sense ...

Funnily enough they didn't sell their best players !

 

Sort of feels like they’ve gone the opposite way to us in terms of manager too 

Ainsworth into Cifuentes

vs

JDT into Eustace

Whilst QPR are down there with us (albeit I think 50 points is enough regardless), I can’t help but want them to win tonight to see the Leeds collapse. 

Who the fook is Fraser Read and why is some inexperienced kid holding such a role at our club. 

As for crowd funding our own stadium improvements…….”never refuse a cheque”

Venkys Out and strip the rest of the hierarchy clean too. 

Wharton out for the whole next season. So add another CB to the list of needs. 

So I make that a GK, LB, RB, CB, CM, Winger, ST - looks like we need to fill every single position on what I imagine will be a negative budget.

Man it's depressing going back reading the first few pages of this thread. 

There was some real optimism at the club that hasn't been around since Hughes' days I'd say. Wharton signed a new contract, everyone was on board with JDT, we had other youngsters like Phillips, Carter and Leonard. 

There's also some funny stuff like the 'gaming until 2am', 'walked out of training as someone put a hard tackle on him', 'personally threatened Broughton'. I think there was plenty of moaning about him being at the Etihad for a match one evening too when injured

2 hours ago, TheRevAshton said:

In all fairness, Birmingham (and the signings Eustace made) were doing really well under him, things only went to shit when Eustace was sacked and Rooney was appointed.

Fully agree regarding Ollie Burke though - he's shit.

I think the 'Eustace was doing really well at Birmingham' is a bit of a false narrative. I read a bit from their fans recently to see thoughts on it, and most claimed it was the fact that he was replaced with Rooney that was shocker in it all.

I think it's quoted a lot that they were on the edge or in the playoffs when they fired him, but they were 2 points from 16th or something too, it was just a really condensed league table.

EDIT: just to add to the above, he clearly did a decent job there, kept them up then had them looking relatively safe, just what I read from some Birmingham fans was that it might not be viewed that way if the appointment was correct rather than Rooney.

Trying to claim his signings were in any way good is pretty laughable from Chaddy, but we know he's in cloud cookoo land and thinks we'll spend loads of money on top quality players like he has for every transfer window since forever.

15 minutes ago, chaddyrovers said:

Stop replying then Davul to my posts 

Did you even read what you put you plonker?

We’ve just moved from 7/4 (underdogs) to 11/8 (favourites) on the back of that Coventry defeat (36% chance of winning to 42% chance). 

Hopefully Mercer is backing Cov so we can all breath a sigh of relief 

Also means there is lots for West Brom to be competing for vs Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, and hopefully also Norwich vs Birmingham on the final day 

Hull have gone favourites after the Coventry team news. 
Good for us if Coventry lose they’re out of the race and perhaps are less motivated vs us. Also keeps Hull in the race who play Plymouth on the final day and means Norwich have something to play for vs Birmingham

Does probably mean they’ll be full strength again when they play us on Saturday though 

A draw on Saturday alongside WBA beating Wednesday would be enough to guarantee safety, as Wednesday and one of Hudds/Brum wouldn't surpass us on 50 points.

Likewise if we draw and Huddersfield win, we're also safe, regardless of Wednesday result as neither Huddersfield or Birmingham would surpass us on 50 points

Finally, a victory would also confirm safety, providing any of Wednesday and Birmingham fail to win, or Plymouth lose

So essentially if we can pick up 1 point, it'll be enough if EITHER Sheffield Wednesday OR Birmingham lose (both are underdogs).

The statistical chance of any of the above permutations happening is around 43% i.e. it's about 11/8 in betting terms that Rovers will be safe going into the Leicester match. Not sure if that eases anybody at all, but it's odds on that we'll be going to Leicester biting our nails.

Bolton have sold an additional 1k extra tickets vs last season in the early bird phase. Priced at £249.

We continue on the journey to a closed Riverside under Swag.

It's astonishing that man gets no criticism outside of this messageboard considering it's the same shocking output every year. We are always the last out of every Lancashire club to get them on sale. 

My guess would be Hedges and JRC if they could stay fit and stay at the club.

Markanday and Telalovic aren't even at league 1 level.

4 minutes ago, tugayislegend said:

Good mathematics working that out. However if we factor in at this stage of season teams fighting for their lives will pull off freak results, I would guesstimate we have a 40 - 60% chance of being relegated if we don't pick up any points.

I did factor that into my pricing of the final matches to be fair, felt I was generous to our rivals e.g. Plymouth favourites vs Hull, Wednesday favourites away at Sunderland, all things that wouldn't be the case if played on any other match-week. So the 23% if we get no more points does take all that into account.

For this weekend coming up we already have prices released so that's simple. If I go more aggressive/generous for our rivals on the final weekend I still can only get it to 30% chance (that's with Wednesday, Plymouth, Birmingham all going off shorter than 11/8 favourites which is unlikely.

Just now, arbitro said:

It's an interesting take on it but in my view and my most recent knowledge of law then Pears would have been penalised for deliberately handling the pass to him irrespective of his swipe and touch of the ball. For the life in me I wouldn't consider that a new phase of play. I don't know for sure but I couldn't see the referee consoling him by saying he could have used his hands and prevented the goal. That would have made Pears feel even worse in my opinion.

Out of curiosity, what do you think the ref was saying to him afterwards? It seemed a bit strange he ran over to him and they had an arm round each other. (appreciate that's a very open question)

1 minute ago, bluebruce said:

Funnily enough, without checking any of the odds of the required or doing any actual maths, I'm in the match thread after Sunday saying I think we have about a 20% chance of going down with no more points (told my mum the other day I reckoned it was 20-30%). My instinct and your method seem roughly aligned.

I think looking at with our pessimistic Rovers head on we’d always think it’s more likely. Will be the same for all fans of clubs down there. 

48 minutes ago, AllRoverAsia said:

Eustace's managerial record puts him in the Jim Iley bracket.

It will be argued that he's only managed a small number of games.

So did Jim, and he was then rightly booted.

There's no point in doing it now, the darlings would cry but over the summer get shut of this never will be.

Yeah, Ince only had 21 games in charge for us, but it was obviously the correct decision to pot him.

15 minutes ago, lraC said:

I think that's why the bookmakers have us at 10/1.

It shows how far we have fallen though, hoping we can pick up a point at home to Coventry in our final home game and take it to 8 with no home wins for the new manager.

It is bound to be at the forefront of his thoughts then, so 5 at the back again this week at home.

Yeah. I've just worked out the permutations (albeit prices are subjective on the last game of the season as we don't know who has anything to play for) to show what % chance we'd get relegated if we get 1 more point to take us to 50.

If we get 1 more point, it requires all the below to occur to relegate us (as Huddersfield and Rotherham will be unable to surpass us):

Plymouth 2+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD (53% chance of 2 or more points)

Birmingham 4+ Points (50 points better GD) so either WW, WD, DW (24% chance of 4 or more points)

Wednesday 4+ Points (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW (30% chance of 4 or more points)

QPR 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (72% chance of 1 or more point)

Stoke 1+ Point (51 points) so either WW, WD, DW, WL, LW, DD, DL, LD (79% chance of 1 or more point)

All of the above happening I made 45/1 as the true price, so around 2% chance of relegation if we pick up 1 more point

If interested, I also worked out the above with Rovers getting 0 more points and I made that scenario 10/3 for us to be relegated i.e. if we get 0 more points then there is a 23% chance we'll be relegated. 

9 minutes ago, Wheelton Blue said:

Leicester will probably need at least a point from us to assure their promotion spot, so I'm writing that off.

Let's say we get a point from Coventry.  For us to then go down, Plymouth would 2 points, Wednesday 4 points (due to GD), and Birmingham 4 points.

All very possible.

I think if we beat Cov, we're safe. But I very much doubt that we will. 

If we get 1 point it would also require Stoke and QPR picking up 1 point from their final two (QPR play Leeds and Coventry) as we all have the same GD.

Individually, all possible or likely, however, for all of those things to happen it becomes quite a big probability.

My guess is Birmingham and Wednesday both get to 50 points (Wednesday losing to WBA). 

We likely need 1 point to scrape it on GD, though Plymouth could easily lose both of theirs too.

13 points from 14 games now under Eustace (average 43 points across the season and 2nd bottom).

2 points taken from 4 matches against Millwall, Plymouth, Wednesday and Birmingham (3 at home).

He will have been our manager for 1/3 of a season, and it's highly likely that he'll only amass 13 points and 2 victories in that space of time across 16 games!

Reading the above and looking at fixtures, I think we're sort of cheering on Hull for the rest of the season (as our useless lot can't be relied on getting another point).

Hull play Coventry next, beating them would wipe Cov out of playoffs and maybe mean they're less interested against us.

Hull play Plymouth last, we want them motivated to beat them away from home.

Hull are chasing a spot from either West Brom or Norwich who play Sheffield Wednesday and Birmingham respectively, we want them still needing wins for a playoff spot.

So this weekend, outside of the obvious, it would also be nice if Swansea beat Norwich (to keep Norwich interested vs Birmingham) and Hull beat Ipswich (to keep Hull interested vs Plymouth)