rog of the rovers
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Posts posted by rog of the rovers
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Some subplots to file under ''Well I didn't see that coming.''
Bradley Dack winner for Sunderland against Sheffield Wednesday
Tyler Morton/Ryan Giles winner for Hull against Plymouth
Inspired performance from Grant Hanley and/or Danny Batth keeps Blues at bay
and dare I even think it....
Ashley Barnes or Shane Duffy winner for Norwich against Birmingham.
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Leicester winning the title tonight also helps IMHO.
100 points would still be achievable for them, but they got 102 points in 2013/14, so even two wins doesn't clinch any records for them.
The most successful Championship team (last 30 years) was Reading at 106 points so not a chance on breaking that record either.
A win tonight for them, title wrapped up and a jovial, laissez faire, party atmosphere on Saturday where they're lifting the trophy come what may, would be the best case scenario for us.
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If my maths are correct (see GCSE level- Raise 3 to the Power of 4 or 3^4 ) there are 81 different combinations of possibilities for Rovers, Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth and Birmingham.
Only 2/81 would see Rovers relegated.
1. Rovers loss, Sheffield Wednesday win, Plymouth win and Birmingham win
2. Rovers loss, Sheffield Wednesday draw, Plymouth win and Birmingham win
Any other combination sees us safe to fight on in the Championship next season.
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Thinking about season tickets for next season and the tough sell to the fans that 2024/25 will bring (no matter which division) got me thinking about Rovers' poor home record this campaign.
I also felt as though we've not scored too many at the Blackburn End this season, so looked into it further and we've scored 13 goals in front of our end! And only four Blackburn End goals in the 10 home games in 2024.
Rovers (League) Goals in front of the Blackburn End in 2023/24
1. 19/8/23 - Hull City - Gallagher goal to give Rovers the lead (lost 1-2)
2. 21/10/23 - Cardiff City - Rankin-Costello goal to give Rovers the lead (won 1-0)
3. 10/11/23 - Preston North End - Szmodics equalizer (lost 1-2)
4,5,6,7. 29/11/23 - Birmingham - Szmodics double, Hill and Leonard (won 4-2)
8. 12/12/23 - Bristol City - Scott Wharton header to give Rovers two goal lead (won 2-1)
9. 23/12/23 - Watford - Adam Wharton goal to give Rovers the lead (lost 1-2)
10. 1/1/24 - Rotherham - Szmodics goal to give Rovers the lead (drew 2-2)
11. 3/2/24 - QPR - Gallagher goal to make it 1-2 (lost 1-2)
12. 24/2/24 - Norwich - Hyam goal to equalise (drew 1-1)
13. 5/3/24 - Millwall - Szmodics goal to equalise (drew 1-1)
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Rovers win (52pts)
Survive if:
Birmingham don’t win or Sheffield Wednesday don’t win or Plymouth don’t win
Rovers draw (50pts)
Survive if:
Huddersfield win
Huddersfield draw and Sheffield Wednesday lose.
Rovers lose (49pts)
Goes to last day.
Best case scenario is a Huddersfield v Birmingham draw. Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth to lose.
Worst case scenario is Birmingham City, Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth victories. Would leave Rovers in the bottom three going to Leicester.
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A win tomorrow guarantees safety.
A point tomorrow means
Huddersfield could only catch us with two wins and a 13 goal swing.
Sheffield Wednesday would also need to win both remaining games to catch us.
A loss moves the need for points on to Coventry (h)
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That performance is on Eustace for me, tactics very confused at the end.
Won’t face many poorer sides than that Millwall team tonight.
Tronstad, Hedges and most importantly Pears need to be fit for Saturday. Huge game again and dare I say it…MUST WIN!
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Everything crossed for tonight's game, definitely a must not lose. A win would be huge and potentially propel us forward towards the weekend and Plymouth.
I think as always the first goal is huge, if we can get it, it should calm the players and the crowd. I do feel as though we're due some luck too. Not had a penalty in the league since August 👀maybe tonight is the night?
Ayari and Chrisene to come in for Moran and Pickering for me, wouldn't be surprised to see Markanday get a start too, but whoever can get the job done is good for me!
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13 hours ago, Ricky said:
I took the 16/1 on Bet365 just before JDT went.
I must admit I did exactly the same. £25 at 16/1, though I also admit that I cashed out last night at £53.03 because even having such an idea was making me feel uneasy.
I'm sure I could have cashed out for more in a few weeks, or even won the bet at £425.00 but it felt wrong, glad I did it, come on Rovers!!!
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What a night to be a Rover!
Almost better going out as we did than to get spanked away at City in the next round, or fluff a chance of Wembley against someone like Coventry at home.
So many standout performances, Pears, Scott, Sammie. Substitutes all contributed, special mentions to the much maligned Markanday, Sigurdsson and Ayari. Even Billy getting his Rovers bow in what could be the start of a cult hero run in blue and white.
That team for the last hour was without Hedges, JRC, Gallagher, Tronstad, Buckley, Dolan and Pickering, yet peformed admirably.
I can only echo whats been said and hope that this is the catalyst for an upward trajectory in the league for the rest of the campaign. Eustace certainly won a few over last night and the overall style was good. Long may it continue.
Just in finishing.....Back to back shockers from the referees, both against Norwich and Newcastle, always rated Jared Gillett too! Did we get any 50/50 decisions? The free kick right on the edge in stoppage time was more of a free kick than the Norwich goal on Saturday! The stats of fouls for and against make incredible reading. How Schar and Bruno G. avoided bookings in the game is beyond me, really poor from the officials.
That said it was only a minor blemish on what was a really enjoyable night for Rovers.
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My biggest gripe with Eustace at the moment is the term.
''Sweat Blood''
Hematidrosis FC
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Finally got round to reading this last night. Went cover to cover in one sitting! Possibly my favourite 4000 Holes of all time. Well done Scott and all involved! @4000Holes
Well worth a couple of quid and your time.
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Eustace's job from now until May is to keep us in the league. The pragmatic approach, whilst hard to watch at times, is actually exactly what we needed.
In JDT's last 12 Championship games we conceded 2.41 goals per game!
Eustace has seen us concede 4 goals against in the last 4 games
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EDIT
https://www.brfcs.com/magazine/articles/jdt-the-highs-and-lows/495
Trying to think of JDT's legacy as Rovers manager.
Top 5 Moments
1. Leicester City (a) FA Cup 5th Round 22/23 - 2-1 Victory
Inspired performance from a side missing Brereton Diaz and Dack, the birth of the Sammie Szmodics era. Hung on bravely in the end, but for 70 minutes, the Rovers dominated a Premier League team on their own patch.
2. West Ham United (a) League Cup 3rd Round 22/23 - 2-2 (10-9 on pens) Victory
The first of our two giant killings last season, Rovers' first visit to the London Stadium resulting in a morale boosting victory heading into the East Lancashire Derby (more on that later) with a memorable night in East London. Vale and Brereton Diaz the goalscorers before Rovers successfully converted all 10 penalties in the shootout!
3. Millwall (a) Championship Finale 22/23 - 4-3 Victory
The last game of last season, as Rovers missed out on a playoff place on goal difference, but an inspired comeback (a rarity in the JDT era) culminating in a fitting finale for BBD as Rovers spoiled the party at The Den
4. Harrogate Town (a) League Cup 2nd Round 23/24 - 8-0 Victory
A record breaking victory for Rovers who avoided the banana skin at The EnviroVent Stadium with seven different goalscorers, including academy products James Edmondson, Tom Bloxham and Zak Gilsenan.
5. Norwich City (a) Championship 23/24 - 3-1 Victory
Rovers finest performance of this season as Dolan and Szmodics goals saw Rovers dominate the Canaries. Carrow Road a happy hunting ground for JDT as he emerged victorious on all three trips to Norfolk
Bottom 5 Moments
1. Burnley (a) Championship 22/23 - 0-3 Defeat
1st v 3rd on the eve of the World Cup break, with just three points separating the two great rivals. Clinton Mola, Jake Garett, neither Whartons, 1 shot on target, well you know the rest.... This only just beats out number 2, but the fortunes of both swung massively on this game, with Rovers never getting near the Clarets again that season.
2. Sheffield United (a) FA Cup 6th Round 22/23 - 2-3 Defeat
Rovers 2-1 up and 9 minutes away from their first ever appearance at 'New Wembley'. Brittain and Scott Wharton on for Joe Rankin-Costello and Ryan Hedges in the 80th minute to try and see out the game, a minute later Oli McBurnie fired the Blades level, before a 90+1 minute screamer from Tommy Doyle sent Paul Heckingbottom's men to the famous arch to face Manchester City.
3. Preston North End (h) Championship 22/23 - 1-4 Defeat
The match after the Burnley debacle, albeit four weeks later due to the Qatar World Cup. Rovers toiled in the snow and were dispatched convincingly by local rivals for the second game running. Ched Evans' double before Ben Whiteman made it four after just 65 minutes. England would go on to lose 2-1 to France in the evening to compound a miserable sporting Saturday.
4. Gagged in the Presser, QPR (h) Championship 23/24 - 1-2 Defeat, Post Match Press Conference
Bringing things right up to date. Last weekend's chain of events which led into the weeks departure (although still not confirmed). JDT denied the chance to speak to the press before the QPR match an obvious sign that the point of no return had been reached. The performance that followed was equally alarming. QPR deserved winners on the day, before an explosive post game interview sealed Tomasson's fate.
5. Coventry City (h) 1-1 Draw/Preston (a) 1-1 Draw
Rovers playoff bid last season derailed by two late goals, in two games, just four days apart. A questionable hand ball from Coventry keeper Ben Wilson was followed by the most bizarre series of events a Deepdale. Ryan Hedges' chip will live long in the memory, for the wrong reasons. Just moments later a punt from the North End keeper was missed by Scott Wharton and the ensuing cross was inexplicably turned into his own net by Dom Hyam, he probably couldn't do it again if he tried! 4 points dropped, and with it, Rovers playoff hopes for another year.
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I thought Birmingham were terrific at Ewood when we played them in the league last season. Kaminski had his best game in a Rovers shirt as we won 2-1, but they were fantastic.
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Rather ironic that Saturdays defeat by QPR (if that is JDTs last game as Rovers manager) leaves him with exactly the same points per game total as Tony Mowbray.
Mowbray managed Rovers 199 times in the Championship [W72 D55 L72]
36.2% Win Percentage
1.36 Points per game
Tomasson managed Rovers 75 times in the Championship [W30 D12 L33]
40% Win Percentage
1.36 Points per game
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I have massive respect for anyone who gives up their time to try and help the football club. These people are volunteers and having met and worked with @Mike Graham @Miller11 and co. with the 'Fans Takeover Day' I know they are good people who have decent access to those in charge at Ewood.
Whether the people at Ewood actually have a clear mandate from Pune is an entirely different question, but I know the Trust has the right contacts and cache to start knocking on the right doors at Ewood, and I'm sure they're doing so.
This is a huge opportunity for the trust to double/triple memberships and thus power. Can they take it?
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16/1 on Bet365, after yesterday it feels generous?
Rotherham and Sheffield Wednesday are cut adrift so you’d think it’s one more from Plymouth/Millwall/Swansea/Rovers/Birmingham/Stoke/Huddersfield/QPR
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I’ve always been a huge JDT and remain a fan of him as a person, what he achieved last season and this season until December has been more than commendable.
I also buy all the issues off the pitch, the loss of talented players and the general circus of Venkys ownership of which were all very much looking forward to ending.
However, the naivety of tactics, the insistence on playing his brand of football and the general malaise of performances have been alarming for a couple of months now. I always feel in football that if you give players an inch they’ll take a mile. The manager has obviously fallen out with some of the stronger personalities (see Travis) and I’m beginning to wonder whether he’s the right man for the battle?
Give me a scrappy 1-0 at this stage or even a 0-0. The defence has been awful all season and shows absolutely no sign of improvement 30+ games in.
A fine manager, a decent person. But right man for the job? I’m starting to think not?!
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Songs for a Deadline Day under Venkys playlist?
Just came on the radio, feels appropriate on a morning like this 🤣 perhaps a tad dramatic, but prophetic.
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If we didn’t want to spend the money then fine, but don’t put the poor lad on a trans Atlantic flight just to pull the rug out from under him mid air!
Shocking form from Rovers. Ashamed to be an associated with the Rovers if this is true!
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I was kinda hoping that for probably the last time in my life Rovers had signed someone older than me. Checks Wikipedia and I'm three days older than McFadzean 😪
Officially older than all the players now!
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I'm very much of the opinion that everyone is for sale at the right price.
It would however take a 'ridculous' bid for Dolan for me to sell right now. I'm talking beyond expectation bid. What did Morgan Rogers go for yesterday? £7/8m?
I'd want at least £5m for Dolan at this point. If he doesn't want to sign in summer then you'd probably be forced to take less, but as of now. No deal.
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McFadzean also used to playing in a 3.
I'd imagine we're switching to a 3-5-2
Pears
Hyam - McFadzean - Scott/O'Riordan
Rankin-Costello - Tronstad
Dolan - Szmodics - Sigurdsson
Gallagher
A team thats hopefully good enough to get the 18+ points needed to not be relegated.
We are going down (the pessimism thread)
in Blackburn Rovers Fans Messageboard
Posted
@superniko with some stellar forum work.
Checked the odds on
Leicester win, Plymouth win, Birmingham win and Sheffield Wednesday to draw or win (Covering both permutations that send us down)
The odds have shifted on Bet365 slightly, now out at 19.8/1 from 18/1
If you do think we'll go down, then thats better odds than the 12/1 on us to be relegated in the 'Outright' betting