bluebruce

Calculating whether complex alien life should or shouldn't exist generally uses something called the Drake Equation. It depends on things like how many stars there are, how many planets are around an average star, how many of those planets could support the conditions for life, how likely life is to emerge when the potential conditions are there, how likely it is to evolve into complex life, and if we're talking about contact with aliens, how likely complex life is to become intelligent life and survive long enough to develop interstellar travel. We know very little about...pretty much all of those. We don't even have an exact count of stars in the Milky Way, and are probably a long way from even that. But the more we know the more we can narrow it down, and we are finding many stars have planets in large numbers, we're not a freak in that sense. Anyway Bazza your two scientists seem to differ from the majority of the scientific community who care about this. Most conclude it's inevitable there is life, and a large study a few years back determined there were likely to be something like 50-60 alien civilisations in the Milky Way at a given time. Most think other life exists in our galaxy, and it existing in one of the other potentially trillions of galaxies becomes almost inevitable with most data you could input to the Drake Equation. You can actually have a play with the Drake Equation yourself, here is one version but you can find others with different factors to input: https://foothillastrosims.github.io/Drake-equation/ Remember on this one you're putting the percentage that applies to the factor above, so when you pick a percent for 'Fraction with habitable planets', you've already eliminated the stars that have no planets in the one above, so it's the percent of stars with a habitable planet from amongst the stars that have any planets at all, rather than the percent of stars that have habitable planets altogether. Hope that makes sense...so on mine just now I decided half the stars which can support life have at least one planet, then decided 1% of THOSE have a planet which is habitable. I just entered: 250 billion stars (the default on this, and a feasible number), 50%, 50%, 3%, 20%, 10%, 2%, 0.1%. Quite small percentages, and I got 'there are 750 high-tech civilisations in our galaxy right now'. Although I'm probably being very generous with that last figure (what percent are still around) due to the massive age of the Milky Way, and probably under-estimating my first percent (how many stars have planets). The question of 'Why, if advanced alien life exists in our galaxy, we haven't met it' is called the Fermi Paradox, and has a ton of valid explanations, of which I reckon a bunch are genuine factors. We probably wouldn't ever meet life from another galaxy btw, as apart from our own satellite galaxies, they're VERY VERY far off. Even Star Trek technology (many times the speed of light) wouldn't be good enough.

That's exactly why it would be odd for Brighton to loan him out again. I expect they'll either keep him around, giving him a new deal if they're impressed, give him a new deal now then loan him out, or sell him.

Don't want any more 40% sell ons thanks. I'd only go for that on a player I didn't think we would actually end up re-selling for much, or if it was shaving a huge amount off the fee. Rather pay 5 mill and drop the sell-on to 15% than pay 4m and 40%.

🤣 It's more that it's a fairly niche thing really. More people should know about it all though really. Logical fallacies are basically types of arguments that are appealing on the surface but don't really prove anything (or deflect from the main point). Good stuff to know to avoid people getting away with talking cockwaffle at you. I see them on a daily basis here (and elsewhere). Waggott probably used some with you, fairly sure I remember noticing some. Just googled a beginner's guide to it for you, you (and others) might find it enlightening: https://fallacyinlogic.com/logical-fallacy-definition-and-examples/ (Not read this one myself but I'm sure it will get it across 😛 )

Yep. It's essentially a form of ad hominem, as well as appeal to authority, both of which are well known logical fallacies used to distract from not having a convincing counter argument. It makes for very poor quality debate, and indeed is often used on here as an attempt to shut down debate entirely.

It was mentioned more than a day or two back I'd say, probably about 4 or 5, then a day or two back it was said it had fallen through. There might have been a hiccup, perhaps that he couldn't start right away and then we decided it was fine. Who (on here) knows?

So far, they've only done it with strikers.

I don't understand why you prefer experience in the national set up to club, especially when he's now working in club football? It means he has never had to care about what a player costs, has had a very limited subset of players he has scouted, hasn't worked within the different architecture of a club setup, players he finds for country can just not be picked again instead of burdening a club financially if they turn out to not be good enough... International football is also less intensive due to the limited fixtures, although this probably doesn't apply to the scouting setup who will likely be watching the players anyway at club level. I do feel like it might still be a little more relaxed and less pressure though, but I could easily be wrong there. Staying with one employer for 20 years isn't an advantage unless you're that employer either, as it means he hasn't faced new challenges and gained a wider range of experiences. Frankly, Park had a far better CV, though I do suspect he may have been heading slightly over the hill. (Again before anyone jumps on, I'm not saying it's the wrong move, just pointing some things out)

True, although it crossed the cynical part of my mind that it might be a bit of a new boys club, as it were. As in, Broughton recognising someone else who is taking a bit of a step into a slightly unfamiliar role. Perhaps just seeing something of himself in him, or (says the cynic) someone who doesn't have the prior reputation in club football to challenge him too much. Again, probably just the cynic chirping up a bit too loudly.

Yes, I just quoted you saying it.

Thanks. That's a positive. Obviously JDT isn't a complete stranger to English football either, just to managing here.

It was mentioned hours ago in the transfer thread, I think I was the first to bring it up. But it does deserve its own thread. Like I said in there, I think we are running a little bit of a risk of senior personnel who are doing something for the first time. DoF that hasn't been one before, manager that has 3 years of management experience but hasn't managed in England before, and now a Head of Recruitment who has only worked the rather different national recruitment scene. None of that is to say any of them won't be perfect for the roles they're in, just it's a bit of a risk having our three most important football non-playing staff be taking a step to something out of their previous history. (There's the Assistant too of course, I don't know his history but I don't think he has worked in England?) May all prove to be strokes of genius though. Sounds like he has a good knowledge of the game.

Maybe they have? Or maybe they have an option.

Didn't say there was harm, just that it was a bit odd to me since it doesn't ring true. A similar class statement but more accurate would be along the lines of: 'We would like to thank the Welsh FA for their fantastic professionalism throughout this process and for allowing Guy to take on a new challenge after his many years of dedicated service.' A very very minor issue of course, it just struck me as odd. Didn't expect so many people to feel the need to disagree on it tbh.

Carter needs to be playing more frequently than he did before we sent him on loan last season, or he's unlikely to develop (obviously he needs to impress enough in his games to keep his place though). Ayala's injury issues and 3 CBs would probably mean he had enough chances to shine. Sticking him at RB wouldn't be the worst against better attacking sides though when we need to be more cautious, you'd think he will be better defensively than Brittain and less likely to roam up and get caught out.

Ahh ok that's fairly savvy then. It's still a 10 million quid commitment plus whatever signing on fee he has, so I'm not sure it would pay for himself a whole 10 times over. Once you're already in the Prem, is the difference between one more season there and instant relegation really a whole 100 mill? Guess it might be, sure I read the parachute payments increase if you were up there for longer.

Yep, 200k a week is a whole, decent first XI in the Championship (which they must have forgotten they are probably favourites to return to) at just over 18k p/w per player. It's a damn sight more than our first XI will be on.

True, I really wouldn't want us to only loan a CB this summer though, think it's essential we get at least one in permanently, especially whilst there is money. Might be the only chance to spend a decent amount on a CB we ever get!!

Don't worry, I won't hold you to that...I'm sure others will though haha! Is that because Swag said 10 mill was left over from Armstrong in Jan that was barely touched? 800k for Markanday and Hedges would put it to 9.2, and didn't he say some of it would now be absorbed into the FFP shortfall? So personally I'd expect no more than 8 of that to be available at best (probably optimistic tbh given how much we like to swallow up unspent transfer funds). Or...we are spending some of the Brereton money in advance. Probably keep a mill or so of that free for loan fees like you say

What, as well as a CB in the 3 million ish range like we've been looking at?

Not how football usually works though.

True, although his main pre-existing knowledge will be of players with eligibility for Wales. Which I think he said was 3 or 5 percent of the players in England. Hopefully he has identified some gems from amongst those, but any he has are likely in one of the Wales squads already. He will have seen other players during scouting too, but he won't have focused on those so much. But you're right, anyone he really rates he will probably tell us right away, and will have time for a bit of communication with the club's recruitment team, so it shouldn't have a huge impact him starting late.

Only time will tell, but Wharton hasn't played at the San Siro for 90 mins in the CL. Or in fact played any senior games at all, despite being at Championship BRFC where it should be easier to get games than at Premiership and Champions League Liverpool. So for now I'd think Morton is further along in his development. He might be here for the holding role anyway, making his competition more Travis and Garrett than A. Wharton.

What I will say for Gus is I read (some of) the article someone posted of an interview with him, and he sounded like he knows his stuff and has a football brain. Hopefully that means he adapts well to club recruitment.

Odd comment from GB: "We wish to thank Dave Adams and the Board of the Welsh FA for allowing Gus to join us so promptly.” But he isn't joining us promptly? He's joining next month. It sounds like he is leaving at the end of his contract and therefore we have nothing to thank the Welsh FA for? Edit - Or could be a notice period as 1864 says above. Although that still doesn't sound like we need to thank the Welsh FA for any particular promptness.