roversfan99

Same old story today, played v a big side, the usual platitudes, we apparently "deserved more," we "played our part" and we "were unlucky." Its not a coincidence that we keep coming out on the wrong side every time we play anyone half decent.

Some people may be sucked in to the hard luck, woe is me narrative offered by many, blame injuries, blame referees, blame fine margins as if they will spin in our favour, blame deflections, blame rotten luck. Others will be wowed by the different style of play to the point that they refuse to accept (at times in patronising fashion) to accept that we are in the same place as we have been in the past. @superniko showed us the facts, we havent improved. 24, 26 and 25 points at this stage of the season, improvement my arse. 

Tangible and intangible improvements have been made this season. Kaminski is an obvious upgrade on Walton and Elliott is a brilliant talent who has made a massive impact. Ayala seemed a shrewd addition as did Douglas to our leaky defence. And intagible ones too, Armstrong only started scoring so regularly half way through last season, Brereton seemed to turn into a different player, the likes of Johnson, Holtby and Rothwell were apparently going to be "new players." It is the case with Mowbray that in the Championship, no matter how improved the ingredients are, the end product always results in mid table mediocrity.

On todays performance, Holtby and Rothwell are the perfect summary of 2020/21 Rovers, ineffective more often than not with fleeting glimpses. Johnson was very good and for me has started to display some consistency and out of the 3 is the one that now can be least accused of flattering to deceive, he would be the one to maintain his place over the other 2 when Travis and Dack return. Elliott was absolutely excellent, Gallagher and Armstrong very quiet, we are so reliant on the latter.

Defensively, we always return to the comfort blanket that is Derrick Williams, a defender who has proven not to be of the level we need. Douglas put in some good balls but was all over the place yet we have to persist because the alternative is terrible. Kaminski aside from some wayward kicking kept the score down and Nyambe was good. The subs were very much made for the sake of it I think, Downing got involved, the other 2 looked out of their depth.

38 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

He would have 8 goals if not for the Coventry (4-0), Derby(4-0) and Wycombe (5-0) games. To be fair though he was responsible for 1 of the reds in those games, which he is good at. So of those 8 goals, how many penos?

He has scored in 4 other tighter games we won. They are the goals that matter. We won't automatically get promoted if he finishes top scorer. 

His decision making needs to improve in the tight games and he needs to start looking to see if teammates are in better positions. Not just referring to the last night. He is getting a name for being very greedy. Every game we seem to have so many attempts. That's all fine when he does score, but he goes 2-3 games not scoring and we will have problems. 

I would be interested to see his shots taken per goal stats. I don't buy he is solely repsonsible for creating these chances, because he has never really done that consistently. The team are manufacturing chance after chance for him. His shooting from range has been woeful this season compared to last. If it was on par with last season, he could have 25 goals now. 

 He is improving ,but it's as if when one aspect improves, another regresses. He isn't immune to scrutiny just because he is top scorer. 

Anyway, he's our main man up there til Dack comes back, so hopefully he is back to his sharpest tomorrow, both mentally and physically 

 

I dont doubt that he is not above scrutiny and he deserved criticism for his performance on Wednesday night.

There have been plenty of praise for lesser threats such as Brereton and rightly so but had we not got a striker as good as anyone in the division on our hands, then the likes of Brereton, Gallagher etc chipping in with 2 and 3 would be attracting criticism, as it is as long as Armstrong keeps scoring such supporting roles are manageable. When we took Armstrong out v Boro we lookee toothless.

We have been blessed with some top level Championship attackers in some otherwise shite teams in the last 10 years and sometimes I think they can be underappreciated. The likes of Dack and Rhodes have also had criticism in the past at times when they were the primary source of goals. When you have a forward scoring at a rate of a goal every other game or indeed with Armstrong almost 1 a game it is easy to take it for granted.

The reason that goalscorers always score is because they know where to be. You never hear people saying that we dont create enough for Armstrong, for Dack, back in a poor team for Rhodes because they know where the ball will fall, where to move, how to sniff out chances. When a non goalscorer starts there, take Gallagher last season you hear regular questioning of the supply which may carry some weight but ultimately the main difference is that lesser forwards dont sniff out chances in the same way. I dont mean create chances for themselves by beating a couple of players or belting one in from 25 yards.

3 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

He misses some amount of chances, so a more clinical striker could score more, I agree. 

We are creating chances for him though,many chances. Elliott, Brereton and Rothwell inclination is to pass to him. Even Nyambe has assisted a few. 

He's having a great season, but he is lucky that he is the focal point of a team that is tailored to setting him up and playing to his strengths.

Let's not forget too that he has scored 5 goals against 10 men when we won well. 

It's certainly not Shearer levels of carrying a team. 

He is the focal point but it is very naive to think that someone especially realistic to us could come in and score at an equal or even better rate. As I mentioned it is not as simple as having chances created for him, he aids that by anticipating chances via his movement.

He is the top scorer in the league which is very impressive and we would be half the attacking force without him.

Our stats with and without Lenihan do a story, although for 2 years he has been the only defender we have had who leads and heads stuff away regularly, maybe Ayala can be a second.

Williams is not a defender I think youd want in the trenches with you.

7 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

I agree no one is paying that much, I disagree we couldn't replace him with a few quid. 

£10 million would go a long way if we looked at the European market. 

Even before the other night, I think this team are doing more for Armstrong than he does for the team. We are set up to create chances, which is why he is scoring so many. Last season he made many of his own goals, but I don't see that happening as much(if at all) this year. If he does start doing that again, well then 30 million might be realistic! 

I wouldn't sell him this season anyway(unless we were offered 30 million). We won't be, but that would be too much to turn down. 

 

I totally disagree that the team is doing more for him than he is as a team. He anticipates chances like any goalscorer as much as we create for him, it isnt as simple as replacing the striker and said striker getting an equal number of chances. It isnt only 25 yard screamers where a striker has made his own goal, his movement makes goals. His goal record in 2020 is brilliant. You never hear people saying that a team isnt creating chances for a goalscorer because he will find chances regardless. 

30m seems pie in the sky and I cant see any team paying that when he only has 1 year on his contract after this. However it will be nigh on impossible to replace the goal output that he provides, it will not be as easy as another striker coming in and picking up where he left off. Goalscorers create chances themselves with their movement.

4 minutes ago, Gav said:

Paul is spot on.

You saw sideways and back last night, I saw attacking, one touch quality football, especially in the 1st half.

If we carry on in the same vein we’ll be  playoff contenders, with a budget that pales into insignificance compared to Norwich, Brentford.......

My umbridge is with the assumption that things will just click in regards to results (ultimately results are what is matter) and if we carry on in the same vein surely that will mean continuing to lose to the better sides, beating the lower sides and never developing the consistency to get into never mind stay in the top 6.

Im not having that the play offs would represent an achievement against all the odds or feeding the inferiority complex, Brentford continiously sell players at a profit for a start and I suspect havent spent close to the net outlay that we have. Top 6 is the target as repeatedly and publically stated by the manager and play offs, it would be a very good achievement if we can pull it off but not against all odds as some sort of miracle. Below the top 3 relegated sides none of the other sides above us or around us warrant the David and Goliath narrative.

Its just totally unnecessary to put anyone who is less trusting that carrying as we are will suddenly lead to top 6 level results as not knowing anything about football. I take on board that there are aspects to our play to be excited about compared to previous years and I share those but until results bear them out to at least strongly suggest that we can hit our target then they are superficial, aesthetic and minor ones. There is reason for hope but not to the point of mere assumption that carrying on as we are will make us serious play off contenders. And its not a lack of understanding of the game to doubt that.

22 minutes ago, Gav said:

 

Far to many people on this thread have backed themselves into a corner, it started back in the promotion season when 90% wanted him gone in October, we ended up getting promoted, clueless majority.

Some of the football in 1st half last night was the best football I’ve seen us play in years. One touch, quick, decisive, tremendous at times, a level above in fact. 

If posters can’t see the progress we’ve made this season you don’t understand the game.

Mowbray has us going places, if we can keep the squad injury free we’ve a chance of making the playoffs, a tremendous achievement on a crap budget.

I think most understand the game enough to understand a league table. Style of play is subjective and for some of that "brilliant" play in yesterdays first half (much of it was backwards and sideways) it created little in the way of meaningful chances.

Until that place is the top 6 as targetted then the questions will always be there and valid. Its not as if we are flying and people are refusing to credit the manager because they previously wanted him out. Crap budget is untrue but a whole new argument, the target is top 6 and we keep falling short. If we ever break into it and people still criticise and moan then you have a point.

The "dont know football" and "dont understand the game" rhetoric is Paul Mani's favourite and is patronising in place of anything more constructive.

One of the main problems would be that outside of those 3 injury prone CBs, Nyambe and Douglas, we have no cover so we would likely not be able to play it for long.

1 hour ago, islander200 said:

Who has said we will every game when Dack and Travis are back?

Are you suggesting those two players wouldn't improve most championship sides including us?

We are 5 points off having played some really tough away games.Seems like half the board are just waiting for an opportunity to moan.We are doing ok nobody can argue that.

We shouldnt be viewing these tough away games with such an inferiority complex if we genuinely think we are aiming to be a top 6 side.

The last sentence is something that can be argued depending on expectation. The target is top 6 and we are 5 points away, therefore is that ok? Certainly not to the point where people cannot argue otherwise.

Its this continious notion that we are x points away (often accompanied with excuses y and z) as it that is about to change any time soon. 

I dont get why anyone expects not to see moaning and frustration when we lose a game. Especially when it is another chance spurned to break into the top 6 and another failure to overcome anyone half decent.

18 minutes ago, TheRoversReturn said:

Your first sentence makes a lot of sense as it certainly wasn't solely his fault but the second is irrelevant. We're talking about his performance against Bristol City, not previously. He has "Credit in the bank" of course...but what's that got to do with discussing his performance in this one game?

Armstrong being greedy is fine, he's our main striking outlet. But today he just wasted possession time and again with next to no chance of scoring, while his teammates had sprinted up to support the attack.

I totally agreed that he was incredibly poor, no doubting that.

4 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

The glass ceiling is an imaginary construct that has been labelled on here. We were unlucky last night. I wouldn't say we looked like the players were aware of a glass ceiling. Holtby was poor and Rothwell only showed flashes. Douglas wasteful from set pieces. Armstrong, we have discussed. 

I believe we will come good this season and have a real rattle at staying in the play off places 

I dont necessarily think it is a psychological barrier, I am just not sure that between the manager and the players that we have enough to ever become genuine contenders for the play offs unless something changes. Its not imaginary, its just a way of basically saying that we never take that step and get into the top 6, our highest peak is "one result away."

Holtby and Rothwell perhaps sum us up more than anyone. On their day a match for most midfielders in the division, but their day is not nearly often enough.

We often seem competitive against bigger teams yet always end up on the wrong side of the result. A point comes when luck isnt the deciding factor for that.

28 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Ayala has been good. Much better than Mulgrew defensively. Trybull better than Evans as well. Kaminski is class. 

Douglas isn't playing great, but that's football-it's not an exact science how quickly players play into form  

Ayala was an exciting signing but I dont think he has "been good," he has been mainly injured, and looked really rusty up until an impressive backs to the wall display at Brentford and then he was solid yesterday but not great for the all important goal. Mulgrew is not a suitable benchmark for the standard of a Championship defender.

Trybull has again been disappointing. Kaminski undoubtedly a very shrewd addition.

26 minutes ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

He isn't immune to criticism. This team are creating bag loads of chances for him. Last night was a disgrace. Some of the shots he took on you wouldn't see the best players in the world doing it once or twice a game, let alone how many times he did. His teammates are fuming I would say. Put himself before the team BIG STYLE, so I would certainly level blame at him. His goals coring record prior to that, or as you call it "credit in the bank" is irrelevant. He was more to blame for us not scoring last night than anyone else. First goal and we win that game and break through your "glass ceiling".

We used to beat the top teams and perform badly against teams we should beat.  That to me was raising our game for certain games, but not for others. Now we seem capable of dispatching teams lower down the league and there are fine margins between all the teams in contention for the play-offs. We came out the wrong side last night, but plenty to be positive about. 

Of course, he played crap last night and I agree with that. He wasnt solely to blame for defeat but he fell well, well below the brilliant standards he has set. He is on 14 goals, our second highest is 3 so he is critical to our chances.

The problem with the glass ceiling is that we NEVER break through it, ever. We always fall short, fine margins are mentioned but sadly I cannot see any logic in expecting us suddenly to fall on the right side of those fine margins. It is always ifs and buts, reasons and excuses, and forlorn hopes that we are on the cusp of a run long enough to break into the top 6.

The performing v big teams and not v smaller ones was a bit of a myth. For the last 2 seasons up we rarely beat the big teams, we did have a couple of noticeable and embarrassing losses v relegation fodder but we tended to pick up much of our points v mid table/lower mid table teams.

To be fair, that pedigree for Douglas is made up of a spell at Wolves 4 years ago when he played as a wing back, so in a different position. For Leeds he rarely played so he wasnt a regular left back for either promotion winning side, and is now 31 having spent much of his recent career injured, so there are certainly question marks.

That being said, Bell is proven to be well short so there isnt much alternative.

3 hours ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

It's not simple anymore. We have players like Johnson, Ayala and Lenihan who I would describe as having those characteristics. Travis to come back in too.

The reason we lost last night was Armstrongs complete over indulgence. I hope he put his hand up after the game or the rest of the team had a chat with him. It's not good enough. I have never seen anything like it. You wouldn't see Ronaldo do it. 

It was a tight away game, we narrowly lost. Not a time for over reaction. 

Its incredibly unfair to blame Armstrong solely for the defeat. He played poorly but he is the top scorer in the league, he has more credit in the bank considering how prolific he has been this season and in 2020.

Its not a reaction to a solitary loss, its the reaction to a loss that is very much a further example of 2 massive problems that we have, we cannot seem to get results v the better teams, and we can never seem to break through that glass ceiling and get into the top 6.

3 hours ago, chaddyrovers said:

Sky shown some attacking stats which shown Rovers rank 1st in total goals in Championship, 2nd in total shots, 1st in shots on target, 2nd in touches in opposition box per game and 2nd in possession won in final 3rd. 

For Me, Nyambe and Ayala should have defended that cross much better than we did. But attacking wise we were the better side. Another day, Arnstrong scores a hat trick and we win 3 or 4 nil..

Its not a particularly good sign that we have scored the most goals yet are only 10th. Not the hallmarks of an efficient side.

3 or 4 nil? I dont really remember any chances where I was shocked that we didnt score, most of our chances were speculative at best.

Just now, neophox said:

Is Derrick our answer at left back ahead of Bell and Douglas? Can't..

Neither is the answer. Douglas the lesser of two evils and maybe Bell's stock is going up without him playing. When he does again people may remember his incompetence.

6 minutes ago, Paul Mellelieu said:

What a load of cry-babies.

 

We could have won this game, but we played a good side who have a far more settled team than us and they nicked it near the end.

 

What other fans slag off the league's top scorer?  

Far more settled team? They have their first choice 2 CMS, their main 2 CBs, their main attacking midfielder and both full backs out.

Could have would have should have. We didnt, again when a top 6 place was available and v a decent side. If you come onto the forum after that happens surely you expect frustration?

3 minutes ago, S8 & Blue said:

Brentford, Bristol and Norwich - two of which away.

Its a good week on the back of a good run.

Sky falling in again after 1 loss in 8?

Big if that we beat Norwich but even so, it would be an average week. We need to stop viewing games v teams around us with an inferiority complex.

1 minute ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

Very tight margins though. Very little in tonight's game. Harsh to not draw, but that's how it goes sometimes

Thats how it goes all the time if we either can get into the top 6 or play a decent side. If it was once or twice then maybe.

A case of de ja vu, a predictable and inevitable defeat when we can get into the top 6 and v a top half side. I dont even think it is us "bottling it" we just dont have the consistent ability to pick up points at a top 6 level.

I dont see how anyones minds can focus on the positives when the blow is repeated again and again. It goes against logic to expect anything to change. We keep "unluckily" being edged out by the better teams. When it keeps happening you start to suspect it isnt coincedence.

For all the talk about deserving to lose or not deserving, we didnt create much in the way of serious chances and theres not many if any chances where I think we were really unlucky, most of the chances were speculative at best.

The subs were totally bizarre at the end, taking off Gallagher when we started to go more direct. Felt like he felt obliged to make them.

Just now, J*B said:

I’ve just looked on the Bristol Twitter - they’re all saying it’s a strong team and are delighted with it?

Presumably given the players they have remaining then. They have Da Silva, Baker, Mawson and Sessegnon all out at the back, Williams and Walsh are key midfielders out, Weimann is out and Paterson (their best attacking midfielder) is out.

Decent team, hopefully Armstrong is central and Elliott right and he doesnt try to overcomplicate it with false 9 nonsense.

https://www.rovers.co.uk/teams/first-team/midfielder/joe-rothwell2/

I didnt realise and unsure if it has been mentioned but on Rothwell we do have the option of an extra year. I dont think that he will have loads of interest from vultures circling anyway but I suppose there is a bit less comparative urgency with him compared to Nyambe and Holtby.

1 hour ago, Blue blood said:

Some interesting discussion, which I feel is somewhat tainted by the fact that Venkys are to managerial recruitment what Nero was to good taste! 

FWIW my thoughts are - no way is TM a great manager. Good is stretching it. His plusses are a promotion with us, some exceptional signings - Dack, Armstrong, Kaminski - and having us looking up the table rather than downwards. Gradual improvement in terms of finishes is also is a plus, ad if the pace is frustrating (which I find it is) the consolation is at least we are heading in the right direction. Also not being an incompetent turd is a big plus from the chap too. Although the fact this qualifies as a positive quality shows how low Venkys has set the bar.

His negatives have included several horrific runs, and some good but not great attempts, for example getting relegated - it was a bold effort but not quite enought, getting promoted second when he could have been champions. Add in that he is slow to learn from mistakes, some horrible winless runs, and he hasn't spent big money well on occasions and you see a picture of a far from great manager. Too many mistakes and negatives to be a great manager. 

Factor in his time outside of Ewood and it paints a similar picture - decent job at Boro, did well at West Brom but that was 10 years ago, and horrific stints at Celtic and Coventry. Again, not the record of a great manager. Where's the tropheys? Where's the teams punching above their weight? It's a decent track record no doubt about it but it's hardly great. 

I think when constrasted with other managers internally and externally it highlights it all the more. If there's arguments TM has underperformed with Rovers at times, then what Bowyer did was nothing short of treasonous with his squad. Rhodes, Gestede, Duffy, Hanley, Baptiste, Olsson, Marshall, Cairney, Robinson, King is the backbone of a championship winning squad and we scarcely touched playoffs. Comparatively TM is getting much more Rovers than any other manager under Venkys has.

The flip side is when you compare him to the likes of Warnock. More promotions, more recent promotions, teams doing better in a quicker amount of time, and more teams punching above their weight. Imo one of Warnock's greatest achievements was getting Rotherham to comfortable safety. When you compare the two, it cannot be said objectively that TM is better on any assessment criteria of success - in fact clearly the opposite.

So whilst I'm grateful we don't have a clown in charge, to me TM is just a decent manager. Unfortunately under the loons that's as good as it gets.     

The thing with Bowyers' squad is probably due to a mixture of financial restrictions (especially compared to Mowbray) some bizarre signings and some strange loyalty to poor players he inherited was very much either really good or dreadful. Rhodes and Gestede were the best strikeforce in the League undoubtedly and in Conway and Marshall when both were fit we had 2 really effective wingers. Hanley and Duffy grew into an effective partnership at CB too. But we had some totally incompetent players in the starting 11, he couldnt look past Lowe and Williamson in the centre of midfield which meant that we probably had a bottom 3 standard central midfield. At full back we often had Spurr who was at best ok, and RB was a bit of a problem position, Baptiste was out of position and uncomfortable there and Henley/Kane werent up to it, and then in goal, Bowyer had Robinson post blood clot when he could barely move, and then had some real trouble replacing him with Kean, Eastwood and Steele all below par. So I think even in our best side whilst having maybe 5 or 6 players right at the top end of the league in terms of quality, there were at least 3 who were probably not up to the standard of the Championship full stop. Of course you need more than 11 which is when a further problem arose, we had the likes of Chris Taylor, Varney, Chris Brown etc who were all miles short of Championship standard.

He definitely did underachieve though with the squad he built.

1 hour ago, DE. said:

TM and Bowyer are more or less on equal standing for me at the moment. I don't really blame TM for our relegation, and I very much doubt we would have been relegated had he been in charge the entire season. Almost all of the blame goes to Venky's and Coyle for that. The squad was not so bad it was doomed to go down, TM proved that when he got here. We were moulded into relegation candidates by a terrible manager who should have been nowhere near the club.

Bowyer probably had more wiggle room in terms of wage budget, whilst TM has had more to play with in terms of transfer budget. I'm not sure how those would balance out if compared, but I get the feeling they wouldn't be too far apart. 

To leapfrog Bowyer, TM needs to do what Bowyer could not and at the very least get us into the playoffs. Whether we were ultimately promoted or not, a playoff finish would be empirical evidence showcasing a clear progression from Bowyer's time here.

 

Im not convinced that Bowyer had an advantage in regards to wages to be honest, I dont recall many high earners signing under him and indeed we had quite a few high earners with big egos dented his chances of a clean rebuild. Mowbray has been able to sign Gallagher, Holtby, Johnson, Ayala etc, all senior players who will be on very competitive wages im sure.

I think the main advantage that Mowbray has in regards to judging over Bowyer (aside from the promotion although a direct comparison is impossible as Bowyer kept us up initially) is that whilst both hit a glass ceiling, we saw Bowyer then stagnate away from that, although he was under the difficulties of an embargo and a mass sale. Mowbray has an asterix next to his name because we dont know what will come next, and whether we will achieve a top 6 placing before any potential stagnation.

1 hour ago, Bigdoggsteel said:

A lot of which he has manufactured himself by how he has integrated younger payers into the squad. I suppose both managers played the hands they were dealt at the time and did so pretty well so far. I think Mowbray edges it based off the fact Bowyer had Rhodes and Gestede. His budget was tight I will admit, but Mowbray found the likes of Dack and Rothwell.  Both managers are well up the list in the Venkys era.

We are at the stage now where a win or two can put us right up there, it's psychological. Hopefully we break through 

Bowyer inherited Rhodes and a couple of decent defenders but he signed Gestede for a nominal fee which was akin to Mowbray signing Dack/Armstrong. Rothwell for me has yet to fully announce himself with end product to be a signing to warrant loads of praise, the likes of Conway, Cairney and Marshall were far more productive.

I do wonder how much is psychological and how much is down to quality both on behalf of the players and managers to never be able to consistently get the points required to push into the top 6. Hopefully whatever it is, it is a glass ceiling that will soon smash.

Would agree that even though you are reliant on luck and circumstance to an extent in what you inherit (the youth teams in Bowyers era where not as healthy as they are now) you do have to nurture the youngsters and Mowbray has done that. Lenihan had already established himself by then but is still very important, Nyambe has definitely progressed although you could question his non selection at times and also his contractual situation, Raya is a big question mark considering how he was sold for cheap but he was given a couple of seasons as number 1 and neither Rankin Costello nor Buckley have yet done enough to establish themselves. They are all plusses but the main one that you can not question is Travis who suddenly became absolutely key.

In thr Venkys era aside from Big Sam of course they are the only 2 managers with any credibility for sure. Between Kean, Coyle, Berg, Appleton and Lambert there isnt a good manager between them.

1 hour ago, JBiz said:

Bowyer got a team (in first and second stint) with Rhodes in the team, at the time this was akin to getting a team with the best goal scorer in the league.

Tony Mowbray signed possibly 2020/21s top scorer in 2018 for 1.5/3m, and whilst thats only one example, its a similar story across the squad, as Dream’s points out - development thats worth recognition.

Armstrong and Dack were fantastic signings but Mowbray has had loads more money to spend compared to Bowyer. As mentioned Bowyer also signed a 20 goal a season striker for a minimal fee in Gestede, and whilst he did inherit Rhodes but he was very much the exception in a squad full of ageing/no mark and useless rubbish, many of whom were on big contracts and with seemingly poisonous. So whilst Mowbray didnt inherit a great striker like Rhodes, the overall squad was leaner, it wasnt saddled with egotistical high earning liabilities and was easier to inherit. That is my main point really.

Bowyer took us to 8th/9th (Mowbrays limit so far himself) and then with an embargo things began to somewhat understandably unravel and it became clear that he had missed his chance.