17 minutes ago, JoeH said:

 

So you always see those "super computer" predictions, thought we'd make one of our own. Worked with a few people to produce a "super computer" for our next 6 fixtures. It does just seem to bear out what most of us would predict anyway, but I think it's interesting anyway! 

If correct, we'd walk away with 10pts from those 6 games. A points to games ratio that would see us comfortably in the Top 6 if replicated til the end of the season. 

Fulham prediction makes for intimidating reading, but there's enough there to give us hope. Millwall are terrible away from home, they like a 0-0 and for Rovers that games definitely going to be about if we can open the scoring in the first half. QPR down as a draw, with a slight swing towards Rovers as the home team. The back to back Bristol City & Derby County home games are going to be where the season could be won and lost. A huge chance statistically to pick up 6 points. 

Anyway, take from this what you will. It's not gospel, it's far less complicated & detailed than the "super computers" you see used by the big media outlets, but it's worth sharing nonetheless.

	Head2Head (5 Games) - 10%	Form - 25%	Home PPG at Home vs Away PPG Away - 35%	Previous Result 21/22 - 20%	xG Differential - 10%		Outcome
Millwall (H)	Blackburn	Millwall	2.36 | 0.92	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.57		Blackburn	70%	3
Sheff Utd (A)	Sheff Utd	Sheff Utd	1.66 | 1.31	Blackburn	(+) 0.90 | (-) 0.24		Sheff Utd	60%	0
QPR (H)	Blackburn	QPR	2.36 | 1.64	QPR	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.31		Draw	90%	1
Fulham (A)	Fulham	Fulham	2.35 | 1.31	Fulham	(+) 1.54 | (-) 0.24		Fulham	99%	0
Bristol City (H)	Blackburn	Blackburn	2.36 | 0.87	Draw	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.70		Blackburn	80%	3
Derby County (H)	Derby County	Equal	2.36 | 0.75	Blackburn	(+) 0.39 | (-) 0.50		Blackburn	55%	3

PPG: Points Per Game
xG Differential: A team expected goals vs their expected goals against across the season (at home or away depending on fixture)
Form: Form taken on PPG over 6 fixtures

Nice work! 

1 hour ago, Crimpshrine said:

Two teams lacking confidence on show last night. Momentum from earlier in the season has deserted us.

Promotion is often won behind the scenes and off the pitch in January and Bournemouth blew us out of the water in that respect. Lack of ambition, interest and action from Venky's. 

We need to hang on to a playoff place and hope we get our mojo back at the right time ( see 1992 )

 

Surely a lack of ambition would have been cashing in? Rothwell?

Damned if you do, damned if you dont.

The death spiral is in full flow. TM only himself to blame.

(‘Wicked Vape’ too)

I just feel utterly deflated and disappointed. The position we got ourselves in was brilliant. Since has been anything but and it feels like our own doing.

I can’t see this side finishing in the top 6. We’ve lost the fundamentals and what got us into that position:

- dynamic counter attack. Not basing our ‘game’ on possession.

- clean sheets based on disciplined defence and defenders knowing their exact role

 - Brereton has dried up. Probably fatigue, maybe been found out

- TM not being able to think and tinker

The crap January window didn’t help. More of a concern is the gamble the club made in not cashing in. We will now lose 3 key players for nothing this summer and no doubt replace with lesser.

This was the season to go up and unfortunately TM has blown it. He’s undone all of his good work in getting us there.

We simply do not look like scoring. 

Brereton has been a shadow of a player since he got the 20th. He’s nackered. 

Ayala needs to come back in, some leadership. 

This isn’t good enough. Please take Buckley off.
 

Looking at the table now isn’t as nice as it was - QPR and Bournemouth two games in hand, us out of form.
 

Mowbray needs to stop overthinking it and go back to what got us into the position before January. Top 2 is a bit of a pipe dream now but from here it would be shocking if we don’t make the playoffs as a minimum. 

Tony Mowbray with time to think and options is dangerous 

For anyone who hasn't listened to TM's latest interview on 'Rovers Player', he all but confirms the out of contract players will be leaving the club at the end of the season.

For all intents and purposes the club/the owners are putting all of our chips on going up. 

People will have different views, but I see this as a statement of intent. I don't buy the argument the owners wont stump up cash for new contracts. If that was the case why did they reject £4.5m for a player out of contract in 4 months.

Like it or not, FFP means we simply cant go above an existing wage structure and with modern football the way it is that is our reality. See Derby for the alternative.

Unless of course you get parachute payments. We, or more accurately he who must be named, wasted ours.

We better enjoy the ride and keep our fingers crossed!!!

Another couple of million onto his price tag. What a story, couldn’t be happier for him.

Hopefully he brings back some form for the rest of our games.

Johnson is a total passenger

I will eat humble pie and never criticise Travis again…….

I would love to know what state Zeefuik is in if he’s deemed to not be fitter than JRC.

This is woeful stuff. Need to put a midfielder on, Gally off and Buckley back where he should be.

The midfield is non existent

Excellent fighting win despite a poor performance.

Defence was rock solid.

Does anyone else think Travis is incredibly limited? Really stands out in a strong technical team. Not sure he’s all that, have the ball away so many times today.

3 hours ago, joey_big_nose said:

In regards to needing midfielders, I can see with Markanday coming in and Dack coming back that Buckley will be freed up to play in midfield. I think he's going to be a real player at centre mid - can tackle, pass, find space, run with the ball, good engine. Wouldn't be suprised if that's his normal role by end of season rotating with Rothwell and Travis.

Great post and what optimism. Exciting times to be a Rovers fan. Dack coming back I’d forgotten about - not sure where he fits but it’s a nice problem to have

Markanday would be a bit of a coup - very highly rated.

A lot of conjecture and misinformation on this window and what is going on, naturally. In reality none of us know what is happening but if recent history is anything to go by the club tend to surprise us with transfers and do the work behind closed doors.

The reality is we can’t go and spend millions. It’s that simple despite calls to and an assertion there is a lack of ambition. If we do, we risk the club and FFP. Like it or not that is the position we are in until we generate more revenue (how we do that and is Waggott the guy to do it is a different conversation).

13 hours ago, Sparks Rover said:

Was he in our academy?

oops. wrong thread your honor!

Chris Wood going to Newcastle for 20 MILLION QUID.

The games gone. Also assume this puts the rumours we were interested to bed…………

Our squad isn’t big enough for the league and the cup - today shows that clearly. 
 

Move on and hopefully we don’t have to play Wigan again for a long time.

Just now, J*B said:

Getting beat is the best thing that can happen to us. We don’t have a big enough squad to compete across numerous competitions. 

The following all have question marks against their names for me as things stand…

1) Pears

2) Edun

3) Dolan 

Couldn’t agree more 

Dear oh dear, some wild overreactions on here.

Actually think it’s a positive, focus on the league. It’s not our strongest XI and was probably the worst possible draw. We know Wigan don’t play football.

Moving on!

Maja looking more and more appealing now….

Nyambe not in the squad today, like like he is off. We move on.

Shows our lack of options if Buckley is playing there

Paying for not taking one of the chances first 30 mins. 
 

Whatever happened to Stergiakis?!