Bethnal

I seem to remember the wording in the previous adjournment was “final hearing” on 20th August. No idea what the consequences are of that being adjourned again, but why would that be the wording if there wasn’t a hard stop? FWIW, I hope the “hard stop” is the Venky joyride hitting a proverbial oak tree at 90mph. I think we get bought out of administration pretty quickly (although “out of the frying pan into the fire” comes to mind) but it’s a long road back.

This stuff is the pre-amble. Missing wage payments is usually the harbinger of administration or sale, so I imagine we should all be keeping our ears open for word of that, but frankly embarrassing that payment terms are being missed. Imagine being this fucking bad at running a business and having the cheek to take home your £25k/month as CEO.

Extremely interested to see how Langstaff does. Crazy goal rate but a huge step up.

I’ve quietly thought this was the exact case, based on what we’d heard, but it is especially confusing when local media and the club themselves are saying something different. Being objective, anything less than about a 75% chance of winning a case is probably too high of a risk to justify placing funds in a bond, anyway, but my understanding has always been that they essentially have not been able to and are - get ready for an old favourite - “saving face” in some fashion, by ensuring nobody knows that they are currently unable to directly fund the club themselves. The club is funding itself, by selling the silver and cutting costs and they’re continuing to pretend that it’s by their grace we are funded.

Watched that Parker press conference and the guy looked tired, jaded even. If I’m being honest, this is a guy who believes he’s at a level below where he believes he should be and his record basically says that’s not true. I think American private equity money and a bit-part England international is the kind of clash of egos that could lead to implosion. They won’t hold onto him for long, but I foresee an atrocious 3 months, a new manager and a race to recover playoffs. 50/50 they go up through the playoffs this year.

I mean, read the post again, I’m pointing out that it needs a Rovers fan with deep pockets to be comfortable spending as much of their own money as this club would need. At the end, I mention venture/PE investors. If they thought there’s enough in it to potentially turn a profit on a subsequent sale/exit, they’ll take a look at it. If venture/PE think they can spend £200m on something and eventually achieve a £2bn sale, they’ll very strongly consider it and you could make a case that football is on a constant upward trajectory to the point that this becomes a no-brainer (I don’t personally believe that). Brighton is probably (according to Forbes) worth £500m, Crystal Palace £650m and West Ham £800m. All currently having a much better existence but a big part of the difference is our owners and their stewardship of the club has been orders of magnitude worse than those clubs’. The probability of their management being beneficial enough as to achieve that exit is not as important a driver as you’d think in their considerations, they have capital from LPs that they have to deploy and they all believe they are excellent at their jobs. I don’t believe any of the above is likely to happen any time soon, but it’s worth saying that the world of finance at that level has a sufficiently batshit baseline risk tolerance to do it, so there are a lot of accountants out there who wouldn’t be doing much at all to advise you against it.

If I were a Rovers fan with deep enough pockets to sustain a period (4 years or so) of losses, on top of a lot of infrastructural/organisational capex, I’d be keeping my powder dry to the point of the club being in administration. Why give the owners a penny back of their investment when they’ve completely mismanaged it into that position? Why let them slip a non-disclosure/non-disparagement clause in there? You pick it up for buttons and use any cash earmarked for the sale itself investing in the club, while hopefully exposing/leaking exactly how mismanaged it was for all that time, instantly earning goodwill/buy-in from the fans. FWIW, if I were of the profile above, I’d also quietly make my way into the club via sponsorship, ingratiate myself to the executives and start to grease the wheels for a smoother eventual process. No idea how deep their pockets are, but in this day and age you’d be raising finance for a deal, anyway, from LPs or institutions. Even still, their brand footprint is basically non-existent, by the looks of it, in an already niche market (you’re looking at glorified TikTok shop people in this space) so unless they’re doing white label for much bigger or a lot of other brands, I don’t see where the capital is coming from, excepting borrowing/venture/PE

Is this the one who said all the fans will be buying NFT’s?

McBurnie has been released by Sheff Utd and while my optimism has been ground down over the years of shit transfer windows, that would be a hell of a signing in our current position.

Sincerely believe it’s the former. The guy came from relatively modest beginnings and achieved enormous success entirely off his own back, but you don’t build that kind of thing without a lot of heavy lifting from those around you. Key appointments for the initial success and infrastructure for legacy. You only have to look at Balaji’s litany of failed entertainment investments (and the fact that the parent group continues funding them) to understand the reason behind the company’s success. It’s not the sprogs. I haven’t done the full research on the family’s complete range of financial interests, but the VH Group parent company only does £400m/year top line and that just doesn’t look like enough to siphon from to run a football club to the tune of £20m/year. It’s been mentioned that most of their actual net worth is in land and property in Pune. When you consider that, you can even more clearly see who actually had the brains. Like many children of successful/wealthy people, they are very likely to be morons. Typically, there’s a lot of idiocy, insecurity, indecisiveness, arrogance or a mix of all four, but it’s extraordinarily rare to see the children of the successful/wealthy go out and improve their lot through genuine brilliance.

That’s a particularly telling statement, Mike. In what way is it not representative of the fanbase? And as a couple of follow-ups; what’s the ambition of that statement? Where do you think that kind of approach is going to get you/the trust you currently chair?

This is an entirely fair point, but there’s a lot more to sell than just the ownership. We’ve got history and positive community outreach. The brand association is a tough obstacle, but if you can position it in a way that there’s obvious commercial benefit, it’s possible. Sponsorship isn’t charity, there are huge potential upsides. We did donate the sponsorship to Prince’s Trust one year (from an aesthetic standpoint, that was an excellent sponsor), but as above, the point of the commercial department is coming up with the narrative that sells to consumers and partners alike. It’s been clear for a while that there’s no talent in that department, my observation is purely that actual talent in there would make things happen. CEO in a company is usually “Salesperson-in-Chief,” and while I imagine football oversight is also a part of the remit, it should be the first point of reference when assessing performance. It appears we only have a “Costcutter-in-Chief.”

Well, it’s right up there with the worst do commercial decisions not to have sussed this out and pitched for big stuff. Booths (E. H. Booth & Co.) did 20x the revenue of WR, with a bigger total bottom line than WR. With a growing reputation of “Waitrose of the North,” national distribution through Amazon Fresh and the opportunity to club in thousands of Rovers supporters at the ground, nationally and internationally, it’s a fairly easy sell to try and get someone like them on board for a significantly better fee. I’ve made this point before, they’d be an excellent sponsor and they’re just one of many within 30 miles of the stadium.

Well, I guess that’s Waggott’s wage covered. I suspect there was more cash out there for anyone with a bit of ambition. Thinking about it today, I considered that the Totally Wicked deal ending caught them out a bit as they began finalising the kit planning, leaving them little scope to go further afield. I’m at least happy it’s not some horrific betting or crypto firm, but just thinking about the firms in Lancashire alone that could have been pitched for it. Aiming as low as we do only hurts the chances of securing a good sponsor in the future.

Equally certain that Watson Ramsbottom are a good and competent firm of solicitors, but it does just go to show the total lack of imagination down at Ewood and I’ve been banging that drum for ages. I believe (having looked into sponsoring a non-league team ourselves this year) it’s common courtesy to offer a higher level of sponsorship to existing sponsors before seeking new sponsors, so that’s worth considering. Even still, League Two Barrow AFC have unveiled The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador (region in Canada) as new front-of-shirt sponsors. I saw a figure of £171k (oddly specific) written somewhere. I look at that, as well as recent filings at Companies House for WR and wonder how far above that are WR paying? £300k? Looking at a best-case, total marketing spend for a business like theirs would be around 10% of revenue (absolute maximum, really) of which, their biggest individual spend shouldn’t be more than 25%. Their total revenue in most recent filing is £12m, leading to £300k. Barrow were in the fifth tier 7 years ago and while they are clearly ambitious and upwardly mobile, what the fuck are commercial playing at not seeking the largest possible sum for the most prominent sponsorship opportunity?

Nailed-on relegation. Gestede was essentially interning last year, but he’ll have witnessed the backstabbing that Waggott is capable of and not bother pushing for anything. John Park - with respect to a man with as long and pedigreed of a career as he has; last year with a bigger budget than he will likely get here, his efforts brought about a squad that got relegated (although that Miyashi looks handy). Suspect he’s not exactly the hire you make if you’re thinking long-term, but it’s clear this administration aren’t doing that.

Same. He’s probably a good few years away from having everything at his disposal, but he’s got a lot of the natural physical attributes to suggest he will go to the top and displayed a lot of the “intangibles” at times. Obviously a kid still and being a centre back is as much about nous as anything else. Went too big, too quick, though. I suspect he gets another championship loan, then a lower premier league loan then moves permanently to a club “below” Spurs in the Sky Sports Pecking Order. A good career ahead for him, but feel his dickhead agent has put him on the back foot by forcing the move, as he’s likely to do again this summer with Ty Dolan.

I think the Kompany situation is bonkers, out of this world stuff, Burnley to Bayern is a ridiculous leap, but I weirdly think he’ll do alright there. He was playing champagne football with alehouse players, in essence and I reckon he’ll get backed heavily. Even still, Russell Martin in charge of a professional football club is like putting David Brent in charge of Salesforce or something. The definition of all mouth no trousers. He’s achieved basically nothing in management, aside from that one pretty goal that MK Dons scored. He got plucked from them after a 13th place finish in League One, was utter garbage at Swansea and has now fumbled automatic promotion playing the Championship on easy mode. I actually want them to get promoted, as I reckon he’ll beat the Derby lowest points total record if left in charge the full season. Reckon they lose their opening 5 games in the league above.

This kit prediction is not one you would pull out of thin air, so if it gets that right, I might give it a bit of weight.

As fans, transfers are probably what cause the most excitement/consternation, but a DoF isn’t solely judged on them, so he’s right to put his record down in a public forum, because I believe it stacks up. Equally, as fans, we’re entitled to our opinions and I know some disagree with mine. After a point, we’re all working with the same information, so it’s fully subjective. Interesting, though, that a club employee had their say in the comments below his post (see image attached). There’s something in this that strikes a bit of fear into me, when combined with the retained list announced today (John Fleck earning probably £450k for 17 mins of football simply cannot justify an extension). I believe we’re much worse off with Waggott and Pasha tasked with the day-to-day footballing operations. Absolutely nobody fighting for a budget, trying to build a long-term strategy on the pitch/in the academy or nurturing the footballing side. Waggott has had all the time in the world to develop the commercial strategy (his main remit) over the past two seasons and it’s now somehow worse. Nobody should be celebrating this sacking, really, at the very least because of what it means: Waggott telling the owners that a DoF isn’t necessary/didn’t work and handing out contracts to The Boys. We’re not far from him trying to flog Brockhall again.

I understand that WATR are basically a fan consultancy group on fan-related matters (match day experience, consumer experience, etc) but as the only forum with a direct link to the club and one that should represent fans, I think it needs a radical shakeup. Regularly see the chair posting in support of the administration and photos of himself in the hospitality. Never comfortable with seeing that kind of thing when the club is at such a low ebb. WATR needs to be doing a lot better than it’s managed over the last few years or those in senior positions need to step aside.

Agreed, needs £10m+ for mid-table, on the face of it. We might get lucky with some historically under-performing players stepping up, but I currently struggle to believe that. Would be very Rovers for Sigurdsson (with a year left on his deal) to have a mega season next season.

Devastated for him. Such an unlucky period with injuries.

I think McGuire could do a job here, as I’ve posted earlier. I think it’s telling that he’s as forthcoming about the experience and it’s notable to be stating publicly that you would need a lot of convincing to complete the deal. I am confident the higher ups will be demanding alternatives with a lower outlay, lower wages etc. I do not think he’ll be a Rovers player come 1st September, which is a shame. Im going to give Waggott two months to appoint a DoF and make interim transfer moves. If he doesn’t impress to a level that I currently think is beyond his capabilities (and I expect he won’t) then I’m going to be in his inbox every week outlining criticisms and asking when he plans to resign/what the circumstances have to be before he resigns.

I’ve taken - as a few Rovers fans probably have - an interest in McGuire, keeping up to speed on games he’s played in. He is scoring from the bench and starts. MLS has come a long way and while it’s definitely not top five European league standard, I don’t think it’s totally dissimilar to Eredivisie or Portuguese league. Doesn’t really have the stand-out clubs like those two leagues have (Porto, Benfica, Ajax, Feyenoord, although LAFC have the feel of those clubs), but the general standard is similar, albeit slightly less technical. After the world class players on a victory lap, there’s a tranche of players that are of a good standard. The thing that tracks nicely to the Championship is that it appears to be a physically demanding league, in the main. Generally, his forward play is of a traditional number 9. Intelligent runs, good finishing, good positional awareness. He has the desirable trait of finding himself in the right place at the right time and for things to be consistently coming off for him. Not overly quick, though. He’s a gamble, no doubt, but either we gamble on someone like him, with a good amount of statistical data behind that, a more experienced pro from a league below or a kid on loan from the big boys. We’re not going to drop the £7-10m that a proven goalscorer probably costs in this league. In comparison to what we’ve got - I don’t think Semir scores goals in MLS, I don’t think Gally scores very many at all in MLS, I think Harry Leonard eventually scores a fair few in MLS, but Duncan McGuire is currently scoring more than any of them would (in my opinion) over there. EDIT: to expand on the above, here’s a really quick clip of his play and it’s a good one because the angle is wide and you see his movement clearly: https://youtu.be/rNUEaS-wMqo He challenges for the first ball up top, although gets beaten quite easily in the air. When the interception happens, though, he’s immediately up to speed, spots the gap in the middle and gambles on the ball either making its way directly to him or via a cutback from the flank. Whether it’s learned or instinctive, it’s well-employed and if we’re all agreed that we need a number 9 like that, I think this is a goal that shows he’s in that mould.