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RoverCanada

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About RoverCanada

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    Premier League

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  1. RoverCanada

    Championship 2018-19

    https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/1059376131340677120 Swiss Ramble with an (as always) digestible Twitter thread on the Bristol City 17/18 financial results. Their 16/17 and 17/18 results illustrate the need for occasional big sales in this league (Kodjia in 16/17, Reid and Bryan this year) without parachute payments, even if you're trying to keep wages somewhat sensible (and despite relatively impressive revenue growth too!). And you ultimately need an owner able to cover £100m+ losses over the long-term if promotion to the PL doesn't happen... Bit depressing to think with their financial results (and merely okay results since their return to the Championship) Bristol City are something for us to aspire to ... managed to improve their revenue to £27m, crowds to 20k+, an owner willing to make some significant investments, etc. (Although I suppose we'd be starting from a heavily-indebted situation...)
  2. RoverCanada

    Championship 2018-19

    Yeah, definitely grouping together a mishmash of signings in my post. Meant more transfers that happened around the early years of Venky's' tenure, incoming and outgoing.
  3. RoverCanada

    Championship 2018-19

    It's interesting/funny/depressing how so many of the castoffs from that era flourished after leaving. Kalinic and Nzonzi, of course. Dann had a couple excellent years with Crystal Palace. Modeste had a few starring years in the Bundesliga after his bizarre loan here. Petrovic managed to resurrect himself in Turkey, but seems to have struggled since moving to Sporting CP. Seems he's fallen off a bit now, but Nick Blackman had a nice run with Reading that led to a £3m transfer to Derby. Random one, but Jamie Maclaren's managed to fashion himself a career after never breaking through the youth ranks here. Goodwillie's been quite productive in Scottish League Two and the Scottish court system haha... That random man of the match performance by Ribeiro cracks me up in retrospect too... Not quite a 'castoff', but good on Hoilett for his comeback with Cardiff (and for finally serving for Canada too!) edit: slightly later than the above, but Bryan Dabo is another one who has managed okay for himself after his bizarre 0 appearance loan here...
  4. RoverCanada

    Championship 2018-19

    Indeed. 1 goal in 20 appearances since he chose to leave. Birmingham's offence has been unstoppable this year. (It was a nice strike. Congrats to him on his first ever professional goal...)
  5. RoverCanada

    Academy & U'21's

    Davenport, Travis, and Downing among those suiting up for the u23s vs Blackpool in the Lancashire Senior FA Cup (currently 3-0 on two goals from Grayson, one a pen earned by Mols, and Buckley, going by Rovers Twitter) Something I noticed earlier and Sharpe pointed out (https://twitter.com/richsharpe89/status/1055053890280919040) looking at today's Blackpool roster, the amount of Rovers connections currently at Blackpool is pretty crazy. Blackpool's roster today includes former Rovers Chris Taylor and John O'Sullivan, plus Ben Heneghan, who is now on loan at Blackpool from Sheffield United, who we were linked with before he chose Sheffield United and we had to fall back on Downing (that worked out nicely for us!) Yet further to those three, Blackpool also has Nathan Delfouneso, Jay Spearing, and Liam Feeney on their current roster. I suppose it's not all that surprising (nor anything necessarily nefarious going on) given Bowyer was the manager and now it's McPhillips, and there's bound to be players drawn to playing in the Northwest to some extent, northwest-based agents, etc... but thought it was a bit funny to see six recent Rovers connections on one roster! Perhaps just a sign that we liked signing cheap players as much as the Oystons do haha... Blackpool's managing along at mid-table in League One, which is probably where most of those players roughly belong anyway.
  6. RoverCanada

    Attendances

    Cheers, guys. Yes, definitely wanted to stress I was looking at it purely from a revenue perspective! I was curious about the 4.5% vs 8.8% drop tonygreenbank quotes from the Times. While a notable drop, my first thought was that's pretty small fry from a revenue perspective. To summarise, when our matchday revenue is probably only around £5m, and our overall revenue is probably around £17-18m this year, a ~10% or so boost in our revenue is hard to turn down relative to seeing a 5-10% drop in attendance for 8-10 games a year, particularly as a relatively poorer club in this division. I was using tonygreenbank's numbers from above. Perhaps it's part of the recent increase in central distribution payments rather than a specific revenue item? I'm not familiar with the deal at all, so I used those numbers by trust. Yes, going forward it could certainly get worse. Although from my numbers, the attendance would have to get a lot worse for it not to make sense relative to the extra £1.7m in coming years. Again, only looking at revenue... Something to worry about if midweek attendances start regularly falling to, say, 7-8,000, even if the finances still make sense on paper, compared to drawing 13,000 instead of 14,000 today. Yep, always fair points. It's particularly the case for Premier League clubs where 70-80% of their revenue comes from broadcast revenue now (or even the parachute-payment receiving clubs now too). I suppose some are terrified at the prospect of relegation and losing that broadcast cash cow some day, but anything that makes it harder for attending fans or that reduces the crowd atmosphere for the sake of an extra £1-2m is ridiculous. (Having said that, we currently do not have that comfort, so I have some sympathy for our management's own efforts to raise revenue...)
  7. RoverCanada

    Attendances

    Just looking at this purely from a Rovers' revenue point of view, if we are getting £1.2m extra a year out of the deal (£88m/72), rising to £1.7m... I count 8 Rovers home games outside of 3pm on Saturdays. 10 if you include holiday games. Suppose we usually average home attendances of 15,000 for 3pm Saturdays (optimistic I know, but let's suppose high away travel like the Leeds game). 9,000 of which are season ticket holders, 6,000 walk-up/away travel. Assume £24/ticket (excluding discounts, but let's say concessions make up the difference...). So, £144,000 revenue per game from walk-up/away ticket sales. If such midweek/non-3pm games had an attendance drop of 4.5% last year, then that revenue drops to £137,500 per game. Or, £1.1M over 8 games, £1.38M over 10 games. If midweek attendances are now down 8.8% for midweek games due to Sky red button, the walk-up/away ticket revenue from those games is down to £131,328 per game. Or, £1.05M over 8 games, £1.31M over 10 games. So that's £50,000/£70,000 (maybe a bit higher if you add concession losses from slightly less season ticketholders showing up) of lost revenue attributable to Sky red button versus £1.2M of additional revenue. So, looking purely from a revenue perspective, and if those 4.5% vs 8.8% figures are correct, it looks like no-brainer, no? Happy to be corrected on any of the above as it's a very quick-n-dirty calculation done out of curiosity
  8. RoverCanada

    Bolton vs Rovers

    We certainly didn't look 'great' out there from about the 20th minute onward, but I thought we largely held Bolton from any particularly great scoring chances. It was a bit frustrating to watch us try and park the bus for so long, but I honestly didn't feel all that nervous watching. In the end, it's hard not to be pleased with a 1-0 away win. One big positive for me was Rodwell. He wasn't exceptional and the game had started to go by him when he was rightly substituted, but he showed some real quality with the ball. I wouldn't bet on it just yet, but there's a chance he could turn into a really shrewd pick up. I'd be interested to see a Evans-Rothwell pairing going forward.
  9. RoverCanada

    Premier League Stuff

    The 'advanced stats' bear out what your eyes have witnessed too. The Athletic recently had an article looking at Burnley's 'expected' goals for and against last year versus their actual results (https://theathletic.com/521793/2018/09/13/burnley-is-suddenly-struggling-heres-why/ heads up there's a paywall!) They conceded 39 goals last year, yet their 'expected' goals against (which takes into account the distance and type of shot - it's not a perfect stat, but worthy of consideration) was 52. They scored (only!) 36 goals, yet their expected goals was even lower at under 32. Their actual goal difference of -3 put them 7th in the league, but their 'expected' goal difference would have had them in the 14-16th range. The article also noted their 'luck' in getting ahead last year also allowed them to concentrate on their bread n butter: defending a lead. Expected goals isn't perfectly predictive... but Burnley was certainly the biggest outlier last year. Saying they were 'lucky' oversimplifies it, and perhaps doesn't give Dyche's management enough credit (this is the question Burnley will have to ask themselves if they do look to be on the verge of relegation)... but they were bound for a comedown this year.
  10. RoverCanada

    Rovers v Villa - 15th September 2018

    Sure you can question the wall, but sometimes you just need to admit the beauty of a free kick. Hats off to Hourihane on that one. Lenihan was brilliant in the air today, but anything on the ground seemed to trouble him (had a couple of slips that were almost costly). I don't think you can fault Smallwood's effort today, and he's looked better the past couple games than the first few. But Reed's appearance made it clear Smallwood's days as a regular starter may be numbered. (On the note of him looking lethargic coming back on occasion, I think it's more that his general lack of athleticism gets exposed in a straight line sprint). I do like having Smallwood as midfield option though. Certainly not keen on getting rid of him. Nice work by Bell and Nyambe on the wings. Armstrong had a couple sparks... I'm not sure whether I'm hopeful that he's poised to break out soon or I'm worried that we're witnessing his (historical...) limitations at the Championship level.
  11. RoverCanada

    Support for Gladwin

    I remember being quite surprised at his lazy manner the first couple times he played for us... You've got to wonder if he had that same lethargic style when he starred for Swindon in L1 back in 2015. Perhaps lost his head a bit after his big money move to QPR. Oh well. Probably didn't cost us too much in the end and he was always more of a punt than a player on which we were looking to depend.
  12. RoverCanada

    THE RYAN NYAMBE APPRECIATION THREAD

    I wasn't too fond of Nyambe two years ago. I liked his physical potential and a certain amount of slack needs to be given to an 18-19 year-old cutting their teeth at the pro level, but a team tumbling towards relegation isn't the place for a mistake-prone youngster learning the trade. It would have been ideal for him to have spent that year on loan in League 1 or 2, although we weren't exactly teeming with RBs that year... But anyone denying the immense improvement he's shown over the past year or so is out to lunch. Easily a Championship-calibre footballer now and he's still only 20. One thing that's actually really impressed me lately is his ball skills and dribbling. His passing and crossing still need some work, but surprisingly, to me at least, he's emerged as quite a tricky dribbler along the wing. Not the only player he's made similar comments about...
  13. RoverCanada

    Loan Window

    If we did bid up to £8m for Bereton, that is certainly a sign of Venky's being willing to make an aggressive, risky splurge, but I also think it's clear we've largely tried to go for some potentially under-valued targets. Armstrong has clearly been out of the first-team picture for Newcastle for some time and there are/were question marks about his abilities above League One. Trapp is on a Columbus Crew team that is currently in turmoil. Bauer's contract is running out on a Charlton team that's in financial and ownership disarray and he appears to be agitating for a move out of League One. Chapman and his injury history would fall under this category as well if he has been a legitimate target all along. Rothwell was out-of-contract, and thus cheap and has potential. Davenport obviously blocked at City and eager for first-team football, so he's another cheap, high-potential buy. £4m for Freeman may be somewhere in-between, as that's probably a 'fair' price but QPR is looking shit, they've got a transfer embargo next window, and they're financially handicapped for years to come. All of those strike me as pretty good 'value' targets, its just a shame they haven't come off for whatever reason. Or to put a negative spin on it, it looks like Mowbray and co. thought they had identified some bargains but ultimately under-estimated what the selling clubs had in mind themselves... Also, agreed with some posters that it'd be nice to hear we were looking overseas a bit more beyond Trapp as there must be some bargain signings out there too (but not guaranteed, remember Koita and Petschi!) (£8m is obviously a risky signing for a 19-year-old with a limited track record... yet it should be kept in mind that a 19-year-old having any sort of track record in the Championship is pretty rare. For an in-house example, Nyambe obviously had some growing pains in the Championship as a 19-year-old a couple years ago, but just look how much he's improved over the past year and to start this year) As a side note, while the new riches of the PL are the ultimate cause of football's elevated expenditures tricking down to the Championship, I also can't help but think we were the catalyst in this trend with our Rhodes signing. £8m for a striker with only a League One pedigree (albeit an exceptional one!) was quite the splash at the time... Certainly set the new bar for top Championship strikers.
  14. RoverCanada

    Loan Window

    Obviously wasn't a hit in the Premier League, but he has been an absolute beast for TFC for a few seasons now (with some injury concerns of late). (I know, I know, it's only MLS...) He's also a designated player earning the equivalent of £75,000/week, so one we can safely file away as not happening
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