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About RoverCanada

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    Premier League

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  1. RoverCanada

    Premier League Stuff

    The 'advanced stats' bear out what your eyes have witnessed too. The Athletic recently had an article looking at Burnley's 'expected' goals for and against last year versus their actual results (https://theathletic.com/521793/2018/09/13/burnley-is-suddenly-struggling-heres-why/ heads up there's a paywall!) They conceded 39 goals last year, yet their 'expected' goals against (which takes into account the distance and type of shot - it's not a perfect stat, but worthy of consideration) was 52. They scored (only!) 36 goals, yet their expected goals was even lower at under 32. Their actual goal difference of -3 put them 7th in the league, but their 'expected' goal difference would have had them in the 14-16th range. The article also noted their 'luck' in getting ahead last year also allowed them to concentrate on their bread n butter: defending a lead. Expected goals isn't perfectly predictive... but Burnley was certainly the biggest outlier last year. Saying they were 'lucky' oversimplifies it, and perhaps doesn't give Dyche's management enough credit (this is the question Burnley will have to ask themselves if they do look to be on the verge of relegation)... but they were bound for a comedown this year.
  2. RoverCanada

    Rovers v Villa - 15th September 2018

    Sure you can question the wall, but sometimes you just need to admit the beauty of a free kick. Hats off to Hourihane on that one. Lenihan was brilliant in the air today, but anything on the ground seemed to trouble him (had a couple of slips that were almost costly). I don't think you can fault Smallwood's effort today, and he's looked better the past couple games than the first few. But Reed's appearance made it clear Smallwood's days as a regular starter may be numbered. (On the note of him looking lethargic coming back on occasion, I think it's more that his general lack of athleticism gets exposed in a straight line sprint). I do like having Smallwood as midfield option though. Certainly not keen on getting rid of him. Nice work by Bell and Nyambe on the wings. Armstrong had a couple sparks... I'm not sure whether I'm hopeful that he's poised to break out soon or I'm worried that we're witnessing his (historical...) limitations at the Championship level.
  3. RoverCanada

    Support for Gladwin

    I remember being quite surprised at his lazy manner the first couple times he played for us... You've got to wonder if he had that same lethargic style when he starred for Swindon in L1 back in 2015. Perhaps lost his head a bit after his big money move to QPR. Oh well. Probably didn't cost us too much in the end and he was always more of a punt than a player on which we were looking to depend.
  4. RoverCanada


    I wasn't too fond of Nyambe two years ago. I liked his physical potential and a certain amount of slack needs to be given to an 18-19 year-old cutting their teeth at the pro level, but a team tumbling towards relegation isn't the place for a mistake-prone youngster learning the trade. It would have been ideal for him to have spent that year on loan in League 1 or 2, although we weren't exactly teeming with RBs that year... But anyone denying the immense improvement he's shown over the past year or so is out to lunch. Easily a Championship-calibre footballer now and he's still only 20. One thing that's actually really impressed me lately is his ball skills and dribbling. His passing and crossing still need some work, but surprisingly, to me at least, he's emerged as quite a tricky dribbler along the wing. Not the only player he's made similar comments about...
  5. RoverCanada

    Loan Window

    If we did bid up to £8m for Bereton, that is certainly a sign of Venky's being willing to make an aggressive, risky splurge, but I also think it's clear we've largely tried to go for some potentially under-valued targets. Armstrong has clearly been out of the first-team picture for Newcastle for some time and there are/were question marks about his abilities above League One. Trapp is on a Columbus Crew team that is currently in turmoil. Bauer's contract is running out on a Charlton team that's in financial and ownership disarray and he appears to be agitating for a move out of League One. Chapman and his injury history would fall under this category as well if he has been a legitimate target all along. Rothwell was out-of-contract, and thus cheap and has potential. Davenport obviously blocked at City and eager for first-team football, so he's another cheap, high-potential buy. £4m for Freeman may be somewhere in-between, as that's probably a 'fair' price but QPR is looking shit, they've got a transfer embargo next window, and they're financially handicapped for years to come. All of those strike me as pretty good 'value' targets, its just a shame they haven't come off for whatever reason. Or to put a negative spin on it, it looks like Mowbray and co. thought they had identified some bargains but ultimately under-estimated what the selling clubs had in mind themselves... Also, agreed with some posters that it'd be nice to hear we were looking overseas a bit more beyond Trapp as there must be some bargain signings out there too (but not guaranteed, remember Koita and Petschi!) (£8m is obviously a risky signing for a 19-year-old with a limited track record... yet it should be kept in mind that a 19-year-old having any sort of track record in the Championship is pretty rare. For an in-house example, Nyambe obviously had some growing pains in the Championship as a 19-year-old a couple years ago, but just look how much he's improved over the past year and to start this year) As a side note, while the new riches of the PL are the ultimate cause of football's elevated expenditures tricking down to the Championship, I also can't help but think we were the catalyst in this trend with our Rhodes signing. £8m for a striker with only a League One pedigree (albeit an exceptional one!) was quite the splash at the time... Certainly set the new bar for top Championship strikers.
  6. RoverCanada

    Loan Window

    Obviously wasn't a hit in the Premier League, but he has been an absolute beast for TFC for a few seasons now (with some injury concerns of late). (I know, I know, it's only MLS...) He's also a designated player earning the equivalent of £75,000/week, so one we can safely file away as not happening
  7. RoverCanada

    Loan Window

    Don't forget Rhodes I think we made profits relative to the initial outlay (not in accounting terms, which would be higher profits!) on King, Olsson, Judge (WOOO!!!), Mahoney, possible Steele (haha...), Rochina (if you ignore agent fees.....), and Koita (haha) Anyway, the profits made on Cairney (albeit too low in retrospect in what seemed to be a panic sell), Gestede, and Duffy were pretty sensational, as player trading goes... I don't think that fee has ever been reported/rumoured, but I vaguely recall a poster saying Mowbray said at a conference that it was free + add-ons...
  8. RoverCanada

    Club Revenue Generators

    I draw your attention to the Twitter thread SwissRamble recently posted summarising all the 16-17 Championship financial results, covering in more detail what that BBC article touches on: https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/1026375049580826624 Always a good source! FYI, he recently did similar for League One's 16-17 season too: https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/1026738429260906496, where I'd guess our accounts for 17-18 will look similar to the likes of Millwall, Sheffield United, and Bolton (minus the latter's major loan write-off of course).
  9. RoverCanada

    Thursday deadline.

    I vaguely recall last window that our signings (Downing, Harper, and Hart) weren't announced until at or just after the window ended, yet it was clear from the pictures that the deals had been done much earlier in the day, so I'm guessing Rovers' social media team will keep us in similar suspense this time haha
  10. RoverCanada

    Thursday deadline.

    Yup, definitely. Wages (along with "onerous contracts", as we're well acquainted with!) tend to be the major expense for any club. Though they can also book most of the profits of a transfer this year, while amortising expenditure over multiple years, which is quite important for FFP purposes... I was just getting a little irked by the multitude of "they're spending £8m??? HOW?" posts, whilst that team has also sold a bunch of players... ... Don't know Wil Trapp well, but Columbus have often been a scrappy club that has punched above their weight wage-wise, so poaching their captain could be a decent move if so! He's also captained the USMNT. Sounds like a legit source that we've made a bid if it's coming from Crew's coach, which does make you think what exactly Mowbray has in mind for our midfield!
  11. RoverCanada

    Thursday deadline.

    I was curious about the net spend of Championship clubs so far given a lot of attention is being paid to the big fees being paid out for merely decent Championship players, yet a lot of these same clubs have taken in quite a large share of transfer fees themselves (e.g. Middlesbrough reportedly getting £18m for Traore today), so they're bound to be spending some of that. Link: https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/saison_id/2018 Note transfermarkt will obviously be incomplete, imperfect, and not 100% up-to-date. So they don't have AV getting £30m+ for Grealish just yet, they won't be counting Norwich paying a couple million in Rhodes' loan fee, etc... As always, wages should be a bigger consideration. Nevertheless... Parachute payment recipients for some added context: ***£40m, **£25m, *£14m (I think). Ordered by net income. Swansea*** +£33m Norwich* +£30m Aston Villa* +£14m Middlesbrough** +£13m Bristol City +£10m Sheffield United +£6m QPR +£4m Brentford +£3m PNE +£3m Ipswich +£2m Sheffield Wednesday +1.5m Rotherham £0 Bolton -£200k Millwall -£1m Wigan -£1m Blackburn -£2m Hull** -£2m Birmingham -£2m West Brom*** -£3m Leeds -£4m Derby -£4m Reading -£5m Stoke*** -£7m Nottingham Forest -£23m Forest is the only ridiculous net spender so far this window (and they had a net transfer income of £10m last year). The Championship is generally a selling league, and that's still true this transfer window (to the tune of +£60m net income so far this window)
  12. RoverCanada

    Thursday deadline.

    I think having one of Smallwood or Evans in the midfield is fine, and I'd take Evans over Smallwood, particularly when he's on his game (which can be frustratingly rare), but both of them isn't exactly an inspiring midfield pairing. Hence, I like the sounds of this McGinn link, even if it does sound a bit fanciful... Otherwise, let's hope Rothwell or Davenport turn into a dependable creative midfielder (or maybe even a Whittingham resurgence... fat chance, I know). Given his inconsistency, it'd probably be nice to get Evans' wages off the books, but he's certainly not a sunk cost and more than worthy as a squad player at least for the last year of his contract. Happy to have Smallwood around in at least a depth role too. (And Travis can nip at their heels if he's not loaned out!) Here's hoping we at least manage to loan out Caddis and Gladwin, plus Tomlinson as he's probably too far down the depth chart.
  13. RoverCanada

    Thursday deadline.

    What on earth makes you think we're not capable of spending €25m+ and €75,000/week on Kalinic?
  14. RoverCanada

    Thursday deadline.

    Thought I'd take a quick glance at Derby vs us out of curiosity... (I may have been beaten to the punch! Although Dreams of 1995's numbers appear to be from 15/16. not 16/17) Rovers are probably looking at a base revenue (i.e. before considering player trading) of £15-17m this year. Derby's base revenue is more like £30m+ (for 16/17, they had £8.7m in matchday revenue, £7.9m in broadcast revenue, and £12.4m in commercial revenue). Derby's revenue has grown pretty respectably to, from £15m back in 2013. Suppose Derby's owners are fine with £13m losses on average per year. That puts their spending at £43m in a year (before player trading, which has generally been low for Derby in recent years, but it spiked to a profit of £16m last year - the main reason they appear to be within FFP at the moment - which would theoretically increase that number to £59m). Now, suppose Venky's are only comfortable with.... £3m losses in a year (and this is a number you can debate endlessly - should they incur £13m losses because they're billionaires and they owe it to us after their misdeeds, etc etc., or is that last thing we need heaps of more debt? Is Venky's capable of adding so much more debt?). That puts our spending at £18-20m, which is £25-27m less than Derby's (before player trading...). Venky's could lower that gap to £15-17m if they decide to incur £13m of losses. (You can also exclude some infrastructure, academy, and charitable spend under FFP, so that increases those numbers by another few million depending on the club. It'd probably be a decently high number for Rovers given our category 1 academy) --- Another important consideration - at least for looking a single year's transfer expenditure - is that player trading profits can be booked immediately. Fee received minus a player's amortised book value. Suppose a player is bought for £10m and signs a 4-year contract. The amortisation cost is then £2.5m for each year of the contract, so a player signed today doesn't immediately cost £10m in accounting terms; they're added to the costs over a period of time. Suppose that player is sold at the start of year 4 of the contract for £10m - that's considered a £7.5m profit vs the remaining book value of £2.5m. Taking Derby's recent activity as an example, if they've bought Marriott for £2.5m on a 3-year contract, that's a £0.83m cost for this year and the next two years (Derby's amortisation costs have been steadily rising over the years)... While they bought Vydra for £8m in 2016, signed him to a 4-year contract, thus putting his book value at £4m this year. So, if they've just sold him for £10m, they can book a £6m profit this year. (Derby had player trading profits of £16m in 16/17) I find it odd some are ignoring some of the huge sales some of these Championship clubs are making in this same window. As was posted above, based on the estimates out there, few Championship clubs are actually net spenders so far this window. Something we don't have the luxury, or to put it more positively, we've decidedly not cashed in on the likes of Dack, Lenihan, etc. In sum, you can't look at reported transfer fees in any individual window in a vacuum... Amid all this are wages, of course... which deserve more attention than headline transfer fees.

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