It'll be my first Ewood Park game 🙂 (Glad I changed my original plan to go last weekend!)

Please do continue, if you can bear it 🙂

Buckley obviously needs to finish those, but I also thought it was an exceptional toetip save from Samba (and it was also a desperate block from their defender on Brereton's follow-up chance, which was really close too). Maybe I need to watch it again, but agggh. Cook surprised me as I lazily assumed he was a fading former PL defender who Bournemouth had just binned off, but he made some vital plays at the back for them. Not as old as I thought too at 30... Zeefuik has the potential to be a fan favourite as it's clear he puts in maximum effort, but I am starting to worry about his technical ability... I suppose he's auditioning for the RB/RWB spot after all, so we'll see...

Soccerway seems to be the best source for getting lower league/cup appearances (and bench) data. They also collect u23/academy stats: https://uk.soccerway.com/players/jack-vale/460620/ Appears those FA Cup/FA Trophy goals were during the 'qualifying' rounds, so maybe don't show up elsewhere. Yeah, I won't be counting on McBride... His PL2 scoring rate halved from 0.71/90 to 0.34/90 as Burns seemingly surpassed him. I suspect whatever L1/L2 interest faded accordingly. Got a start for his first Queen's Park game at least (and it's a step up from his Scottish League 2 loan a few years ago 🙂), but agreed it's a bad sign. I imagine we'll still take up the option, depending how the loan goes. Re: lower-level loans, it's case-by-case, but I suspect it's more youngsters (and their agents) pushing for starts but getting 'found out' in men's football rather than a sudden loss in confidence dooming their development. Maybe you hold out for L1/L2 loans, but then they risk getting stuck on the bench (as we've seen with Vale, Magloire, Fisher) Sam Burns looks like a good example of impressing during a brief lower league loan to help secure him starting football at a L2 side. Dan Pike is maybe a questionable loan this year, but I think he also had some poorly timed injuries (and he's now getting starts every week at least). It's different for GKers, but I imagine Hilton's getting some great experience starting every game for Hamilton, even if it's only the Scottish Championship. I guess it depends on your opinion of Johnson/Nyambe as makeshift CBs, but I'm not as concerned as about our CB depth, particularly if taking into account allocating an apparently tight budget. I'm quite happy with Carter getting another L1 loan, where he's getting starts and apparently impressing so far (looked good when I caught 20min of a Portsmouth game last week), following in Wharton's footsteps. We kept him around when needed to start the year (10 apps ain't too shabby), but he hadn't even made the bench since early Nov.

Magloire was a curious one considering his apparent physical gifts, but you're right about that Blackpool game. I vividly remember Mowbray's body language on the sideline, desperately shouting instructions and probably thinking this is the last time he gives Magloire a chance. I don't think he even made our bench since. Seems he's had mixed/poor reviews during his three previous loan spells too, but you can see that a number of managers have thought they could harness his speed somehow! Appears to be a bit player for his Northampton loan so far. 1 start, 1 sub, twice stayed on the bench. Out of contract this summer, so I imagine he'll be gone on a free.

He also scored in the FA Cup (against giants Pontefract Collieries) and had a goal in the FA Trophy too (against giants Bradford Park Avenue). So, 3 goals across 14 appearances total, plus a few assists. His third hattrick of the season, counting his 3 against Bulgaria's u21s back in September 🙂 It doesn't sound like his Halifax loan was a 'failure', their fans seemed to like him okay, but you'd also hope/expect he'd be a bit more dominant at the level. Although, as you say, he was often thrown out wide, plus still lingering injury issues. Getting game time for our loans in the lower leagues isn't always a given... Won't be counting on him just yet. But we're likely fine throwing him on the bench if attacking numbers get stretched again. I have a vivid memory of Vale cracking the crossbar in his one sub appearance a couple years ago... hope he can get it together. I presume we were comfortable loaning out one of McBride or Vale (in addition to Burns heading out), while the other would get u23 starts plus emergency striker option... Vale's still under contract through 2023, while we have an option on McBride. Brennan with a goal last night too. He seemed to be knocking at the door a couple years ago and then fell off...

Aside from parachute payments, you also shouldn't overlook that Bournemouth have made some major sales since relegation. Even after their recent splurge, glancing at transfermarkt, they're at net sales of £15+m this year (largely the Danjuma sale) and made £84m net sales last year (Ake, Wilson, Ramsdale, Arter...). Puts our maybe £10+m profit on Armstrong into perspective... They've also seen a number of their longtime PL squad head out the door (Cook, Fraser, Begovic, Boruc, Daniels, Francis, Surman), so their wage bill may not be as bloated with leftover PL contracts as some relegated clubs. Their accounts for this season and last should prove an interesting read (for me at least 🙂) Perhaps countering that is they have also built up a sizeable debt load due to heavy losses in their final PL years, albeit apparently with a 'benevolent' owner like us... So, certainly an interesting one to watch if they don't go up this season or next given their longer-term financial picture won't be so bright. Hence, their willingness to spend now while their revenue/transfer income is high isn't surprising (nor irrational!), and probably still well within FFP in the near-term.

Two things that irrationally bother me: 1) Nathan Jones' constant preening 2) Cornick's stupid hair I think he was saying Cornick hit him in the balls?

I hadn't clocked on to Chapman running into the max two clubs per year FIFA rule given his brief sub appearances here + the Burton loan. I think there's an exception if he can be sold to a league with an overlapping season (MLS or the Nordics?)... but doubtful any such interest could arise (and I vaguely recall Chapman worrying about homesickness during his Shrewsbury loan...) So, it's likely either stick around here for the rest of the year, perhaps making the bench if we're light on attackers (like the Middlesbrough game, but speaks volumes that TM would rather have Garrett on the bench and have Chapman play for the u23s when he should be midseason fit...), or Burton takes him back again (maybe still covering some wage, but doubtful...), but doesn't sound like he impressed there at all. Maybe the latter could still arise as Burton appear to be desperate for attacking help... Anyway, always an odd one, and as I've suggested earlier I think he stuck around due to our qualifying offer essentially tying him to us one more year due to Bosman rules. Shame it hasn't worked out, but I can't take too much issue with taking a cheap-ish punt on players like him (and I doubt he's been 'disruptive' in the dressing room considering his lack of stature).

They're a curious one. Had some major (£92m) losses in their last couple years in the PL, debt up to £128m in their 19-20 accounts, small stadium inherently limits their turnover going forward, and they also didn't seem to do a good job commercially exploiting a decent run in the PL (only £11m of commercial revenue in 19-20, pretty much bottom of the PL). They could be on the path to sub-£15m turnover soon (i.e., even below us!) Their wage started to bloat in their last few PL years, yet was still only 'mid-table' for the PL. Where its at now will depend on relegation clauses, of course... Their transfer costs also rose a lot the past few years. However, they made some huge sales last year: £40m for Ake, £18m for Ramsdale, £20m for Wilson, plus various others (transfermarkt estimates net incomings of £84m last year). Despite a few incomings this year, they're likely still at net sales of £20m this year due to Danjuma and Surridge. They've also seen a lot of their old PL squad leave, so I suspect that wage bill has fallen pretty fast. They also got hefty (~40m) parachute payments this year and last. However, that drops to ~£15m next year (and then is done), so these rumours could reflect a sudden desire to spend now while the parachute is still in place and before they return to being a bit of a 'small' club...

Rough to discover God isn't a Rovers supporter.

RE: Middlesbrough transfers, this year is the first year they've spent a decent chunk since 18/19 (the summer they had £40m+ in sales). They had big losses in 19-20 (and probably 2020-21 too, like everyone else, barring Covid-related exemptions), but their amortisation and wage costs have been dropping a lot too (Assambalonga, Fletcher, Ayala, Pears... 🙂) Probably up against FFP, like many clubs (and reportedly on the verge of a transfer ban), but I don't think they're an obvious case of taking the financial piss... Haha, I appreciate that, but I stress that I just try to put together some semi-educated guesstimates! The actual accounts do sometimes surprise... As I said earlier, it probably depends on the interpretation of the FFP cycles, how much 'profit' we actually made on the training ground, and the amount of FFP exemptions that were granted for Covid. My guess is cheap buys (Markanday), loan-to-buys (Zeefuik), and cheap loans are all we can 'manage' this year within FFP, but the Armstrong/training ground sale do give us some breathing room for future years (while getting us out of an embargo this year). But my calcs are based on quite a few assumptions! (I'm also still surprised the club hasn't gotten more stick for being stuck paying for the Poveda loan! Seems like a negotiating oversight to me (e.g. we did send Cunningham back a few years ago when he blew out his knee). Premier League clubs are going to be stingey in this financial environment.) Yeah, think this is a fair summary. It'll be quite a kick in the gut if we don't get promoted and lose all three of the above, but it is looking like we're forgoing some transfer fees (plus the cost of the rest of their wages) by hanging on to them. I'd maybe quibble with 'concession', as I do think we're still tight with FFP. But I think a couple cheap, but potentially 'quality', loans are the obvious/affordable route, at the very least. PL youngsters are always a wildcard, but we also should have a decent reputation with PL clubs by now, so hopefully loan fees aren't extortionate.

Past it.

- I think it was ultimately just bad timing that we needed someone to fill in at RB when all of JRC, Zeefuik, and Brown apparently weren't up to speed (and Nyambe's two yellows were ridiculous in the first place, but I'm trying not to dwell on officiating too much...). Totally understand the frustration with JRC's lack of fitness, and his performance against Hull, but I think some are sleeping on him a bit given he's been out so long. He's got talent, but hopefully that game was also a wake up call for him. - I certainly wouldn't start him at RB/RWB, keep him as the right-sided CB, but one thing I've liked about the back 3 is it has allowed Lenihan a lot more freedom to venture forward in an overlapping CB-esque fashion. He hasn't looked out of place supporting attacks down the wing. He can also challenge attackers high up knowing van Hecke and Wharton are hanging back as cover. Lenihan's generally quite good cutting off attacks, but his weakest moments can be exacerbated in a back 4 when he's too rash in the challenge, either picking up a yellow or exposing a lone CB behind him. - Similarly, I wasn't so bothered about Dolan being the 'RWB' against Wigan (which was similarly bad timing on who we had available). I don't recall that looking too poor defensively (partly because Wigan were shit going forward) as Lenihan was giving him lots of support up and down the wing. More that Dolan just had an awful game trying to create anything on offence (and van Hecke struggled to fill Lenihan's role after he went off). - Assuming Nyambe sticks around, I think we should ultimately be fine at RB with Zeefuik's arrival, maybe Brown impresses, and hopefully JRC gradually gets back up to speed.

Haha, there does seem to be a few posters who confidently dismiss Travis in every game thread ("as everyone on BRFCS knows, Travis is not good enough..."), and everyone else just politely ignores them.

Quick loans scouring: - Burns got his first start for Scunthorpe yesterday, getting subbed after 58 min. Also had a sub appearance before that. Can't find any real comment from Scunthorpe fans yet... but good to see him getting game time. - Carter was the on the bench for Portsmouth yesterday, so he got over there pretty quick. Hope he gets some starts soon (from what I can gather, he'll certainly get a shot there). - Joe Hilton still the regular starter at Hamilton. Maybe not the highest level, but good to see him rack up a decent number of starts (now at 12 league starts + 7 cup starts) - Dan Pike started for AFC Fylde in their first game since his loan was renewed. Seems Joe Nolan is getting regular starts for his loan with Curzon Ashton in NLN. Woking haven't played in a while, but Annesley has been getting pretty regular minutes there too (5 starts, 3 subs + 1 cup start). - Can't really figure out if Brandon Lonsdale is getting game time with Macclesfield FC in the NWCL, and I regret the few minutes I spent trying to check on that.

Yup. We were hardly at our best today, but Cardiff didn't deserve shit.

Well, I'm half-relieved that I'm not the only one who seemingly can't even login to my Rovers account...

Honestly hard to say and it's open to interpretation! With the Armstrong/training ground sales, we should be well within a 3-year FFP cycle this year (and with some headroom going forward), but the issue is we likely breached the 3-year FFP cycle last year. My guess is the EFL gave us a pass on that due to staying within a 4-year FFP cycle including this year (due to Covid), leaving us technically transfer embargo free. So, you're probably right that we can spend now as the EFL isn't approving our transactions one-by-one, but they will likely slap us with a transfer embargo real quick afterwards (you could think that we're 'conditionally' transfer embargo free... which I suppose is the case for every club!). And the EFL will likely be wondering 'wtf' haha The 3-year FFP cycles does create some perverse incentives... There's always the view that gambling is worth it because clubs that have gotten promoted and breached FFP in the past have gotten away with slap on the wrist fines. However, I'd also caution that the EFL is slowly starting to finally show some 'bite' in its latest FFP sanctions if we don't get promoted (if you look at the detail of Reading's sanctions, they're going to have financial handcuffs for years). I wouldn't fault either interpretation! As discussed below, our training ground sale could be a few more million 'profitable' than I've guessed, which would give us some more wiggle room this season. I wouldn't be surprised if we could afford a £2-3m transfer fee (but not multiple such fees), but we obviously don't want to show our hand... True, but in terms of profit and loss, it'll depend on how much amortisation was left on the training ground. Suppose it cost £15m to build it 10 years ago with 20-year straight line depreciation, then that's £7.5m of amortisation left to go, so we'd only be able to book a 'profit' of 16.6-7.5=£9.1, (Any capital investments in the interim further complicate that calculation! So, I wasn't surprised it took a while to clear with the EFL) Someone more familiar may be able to put a guess together (I don't know the figures myself!) But how much we did 'profit' from that sale is obviously a key variable! I just tried to be conservative and based it on Reading's similar sale: they sold theirs for £13m when it had an account value of £5m, so £8m profit. --- Anyway, let's not derail this thread too much debating a bunch of numbers nobody can actually know 🙂

Just thought I'd again post my FFP estimates as a reminder of where we may or may not stand. Obviously it's ultimately a guessing game and up for interpretation, but perhaps to focus minds for those interested in semi-plausible numbers. Plenty of assumptions to be shot at, and future sales are obviously an unknown, but the key ones are: - £10m profit booked on Armstrong for 2021-22 and £8m profit booked on the training ground sale (conservative, but based on a similar sale by Reading) for 2020-21 - I've guessed that the 'new' wage budget is down to £23m, which roughly aligns with £13m/year "FFP-losses" (after assuming £4m/year of FFP cost exemptions) My suspicion is, after the Armstrong/training ground sales, we will just sneak under a 4-year FFP cycle this year (4 years due to Covid, plus ~£3m of other Covid-related exemptions; definitely blew past FFP for 2018-19 to 2020-21). This meant the EFL left us technically free of any transfer restrictions (as have been imposed on Reading, for example), but we're probably still pretty restricted on what we can actually spend this year. However, my guesstimates also suggest we have about £6m 'free' to spend over the next 3-years due to the Armstrong/training ground sales. That could make sense of trying for loans-to-buy this year, as is/was allegedly the case for the likes of Maja and Zeefuik (while <£1m purchases like Edun and maybe now Markanday don't move the needle too much). Maybe can't afford/aren't allowed a big-ish purchase this year, but we have wiggle room to do so going forward. Anyway, speculate away. Hope it helps. Work permits always have unpredictable elements, but I don't think the post-Brexit restrictions are an issue for Zeefuik. He clears if you plug his minutes played into any GBE points calculator. The points system is definitely a new issue for recruiting from 'lesser' European leagues, or for recruiting Europeans before they get significant minutes, but not for a semi-regular Bundesliga player, which is considered a 'Band 1' league (he also would have easily qualified based on his regular Eredivisie minutes in previous years, which is 'Band 2'). I also don't see how Kaminski wouldn't qualify. The Belgian league is also Band 2, plus he had played a bunch of Europa Leage minutes. Maybe that's referring to a decade ago when he was a young second stringer, but not once he was an established starter.

Have to agree with this... . I think some of the impression is due to relief that THB looked 'decent' in comparison to Branthwaite, who was good for a few games and then suddenly had a couple very wobbly games. (I think both will turn out to be decent PL defenders in the long-run). We were 4-5-8 in games he started (he was also a sub in two losses, but I won't fault him for those), which is borderline relegation form, and we averaged 1.3 goals against in those games. We averaged 1.1 goals against otherwise... That record was of course more due him joining a team that was fraying at the time. He was fine, but hardly a catalyst that 'saved us from relegation' or whatever way some may spin it. I wouldn't have minded him back on loan as we did need CB cover and he is at least an okay Championship defender. Quite happy to have brought in van Hecke instead.

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/sport/19836599.blackburn-rovers-benefit-swansea-city-move-andy-fisher/ We've got a sell-on attached to Fisher. Swansea reportedly paying £400k. So, we'll be getting maybe £80-100k of that. Break out of the bubbly.

Eh, this forum probably needed a good vent haha... Shame that Carter or Davenport couldn't get some gametime. I'm guessing they were the Covid players? It kinda worked okay in the first half as Lenihan was often overlapping and providing defensive support on the right. I think part of why the back 3 has been working well for us is Lenihan has been thriving with the increased flexibility it gives him. But then Lenihan went off and van Hecke was a bit more awkward in support on the right. And it was simply a poor game from Dolan. Probably more an indication of how far off JRC still is that he didn't even get subbed on... Shame Chapman's cup tied as maybe would've been one last opportunity for him to impress. Don't mind it for the sake of giving Nyambe a rest. And would've gotten away with it in the end if it wasn't for Pears' horrorshow...

Some varied thoughts: - I'm surprised that us apparently not being able to unilaterally cancel Poveda's loan hasn't gotten much attention on here given he's probably a pricey loan. Frankly, sounds like a blind spot in our negotiation (we've sent back injured loan players before...) Maybe could have assumed PL clubs wouldn't be so bothered about taking back wages in the past, but they're also under financial pressures these days. Picking up Sommerville instead as a 'make weight' could be a sensible compromise. - Whatever the speculation about our wage 'structure' and what we can afford vs what players can get elsewhere, I think it's important to keep in mind that even if our wage bill is ~£25m, which pushes our wage/turnover to nearly 200%, that is still below the Championship average (~£35m) and is half that of parachute clubs (some of which will be tied up in 'legacy' PL contracts, but they definitely still have plenty to spend). That's simply a function of our bottom-tier turnover. Supposing £15k/week is our 'cap', that's a good Championship salary (and high relative to other 2nd tiers), but there's certainly Championship clubs still willing/able to pay £20k+/week (as demoralising as it would be to see players leave for a Championship club; hard to begrudge players for a PL move). Hell, we were paying Rhodes £40k/week back in our parachute payment days... The big uncertainty for the out-of-contract players is if such contracts are still readily on offer given pandemic-related financial pressures. - Nyambe... it's clear his agents have been angling for a bigger move for a while now, whether that be a random laudatory article in The Athletic, a quiet kid suddenly having a pretty active Instagram page, strained negotiations last year, etc. Starting an academy in Namibia won't be cheap either. We've had our debates about whether he could be a PL player someday and he's had his times out of the squad (if still generally a regular starter). Certainly has the basic physical qualities, and you can see an agent's thinking, but still a work in progress. I'll be disappointed if he goes, but, whatever wage allegedly on offer, selling him this month (for a cut rate...) and replacing him with a (potentially promising?) player like Zeefuik would be a sensible last resort, if a sad conclusion. However, it also makes sense to simply run down his contract (and the others) for the sake of keeping the squad together for our (unexpected) promotion run. Maybe return for one last offer if we get promoted (or Nyambe/his agent finds offers elsewhere aren't as high as he hopes) - I love Rothwell, but I also think TM's past criticisms haven't been off base. Capable of amazing play, but can still go missing for stretches and his defensive positioning can be wanting (although he certainly has been putting in more effort this year). He's finally putting it all together this year, so I'm not surprised it's been a tricky negotiation. The Rangers link worried me as, whatever you think of Scottish football, they've got twice our wage bill. Similar if a parachute club like Bournemouth is sniffing... He's thriving in our midfield 3 setup and obviously can't complain about game time anymore, so I would assume he's at least pretty happy at the moment. - Lenihan threatening to leave surprised me. Not sure what to make of that... hope he stays as I've always thought he's a solid Championship CB, if not quite PL quality, but he's been excellent this year. Maybe he's worried this is his last shot at PL football (Sheffield U were sniffing at one point, but I don't think there have been any rumours since?) and/or is tired of being overlooked in the Ireland national setup (where has some relatively tough competition). I suspect/hope he'll eventually sign.

Checked a points calculator against either his minutes played in 2020-21 or this year and looks like he qualifies. Playing Bundesliga football is a big factor making him eligible (although not too hard to cross the hurdle playing Eredivisie football either).