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[Archived] Credit Crunch To Hit Football?

Hughesy

By Hughesy
in Football Messageboard Archive

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DingleBaiter Premier League

DingleBaiter

Posted
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Philip, you like this sort of stuff - who exactly is Eddie Davies, major shareholder at Bolton? They used to have some element of Warburtons family behind them didn't they? This guy I'm presuming has overtaken them now? Their new 'training ground' - opened on Sat officially with a 2-0 defeat by our U-18s, is named after him.

Even before all this spate of bank malarkey, some of the Prem clubs were running scared. As if it's not enough to see how little liquidity they have, 3 out of the 20 had already approached 3rd parties for help restructuring their debt - rather than sell off equity/find new owners.

What folk conveniently overlook with Rovers 'failing' to replace Bentley is that it wasn't down to not having the finances - it was down to not finding the right replacement for the right price, just for the sake of it. Pennant particularly was there to be had - but what a risky shout, especially commercially, let alone football-wise. I'm confident we'll plump for Kightley, let's just hope Wolves's promotion push flops again.

The scary/amusing thing with the crunch is how it can affect any club - in fact, this time it's arguably the 'bigger' clubs that are most at risk, certainly history stands for nothing. Liverpool only look safe till July - although the recent bank changes could prove a fillip for them, dependent how much of the Government's tough talk is just spin. West Ham have had teetering on 3 fronts. Everton's ground, board, financial problems. Spurs potential relegation. Man United - AIG. Newcastle - anything. Arsenal look rosiest, given Wenger's avoidance to spend on transfers, the ringfencing of the Emirates money, 40,000 season ticket holders on a waiting list, and the 'old' money behind them as well as potential ownership challenges.

The more I look round, the more I'm glad I support a little backwater club.

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Billy Castell Champions League

Billy Castell

Posted
Posted

I do believe if we can just hold on and keep the falling gates at bay, we'll be in a good position to flourish. Hopefully we can find money outside fans at the gate to pep us up a bit. It'll be tight for the likes of Coventry, us, or whoever, but if we can keep the bank balance smiling whilst doing OK in the Premiership we'll do well in a few years time.

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Frisky Jim Premier League

Frisky Jim

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First of all they would need to settle the thick end of a billion pounds debt the Glazers have run up.

I wouldn't be surprised if somebody on an ego trip did that.

Latest rumour is that United can't afford Tevez and that's why he isn't getting games.

As for Liverpool, would any prospective buyer be expected to fund the new stadium as well as clearing Liverpool's debts?

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neekoy Champions League

neekoy

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Someone will bail out these 'big' clubs. Shame, as I'd like to see them fold, as I'm a nasty person.

Couldn't agree more. You are not nasty, you have just witnessed the slow demise of the game you love and want those to be punished severly. Cool

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CrazyIvan Champions League

CrazyIvan

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There's a lot of schadenfreude in the way we're all watching the big clubs with money problems. I, for one, wouldn't want to see them disappear for ever but struggling would be nice. 70,000 fans at a club that might have to sell to balance the books? How much for Cristiano, Real? Interesting times ahead...

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thenodrog World Cup

thenodrog

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Posted

Just a point but football is like life. To those with nowt the credit crunch simply does not exist. It's only sh1t for those who have lots to lose. If MU fold and are flushed down the can it won't matter to a bunch of mates in the Combination playing at Plessy fields will it?

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philipl World Cup

philipl

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If Liverpool do not find a buyer PDQ, the repurcussions look immediate and horrible for the scousers. The £250m which needs to be returned to RBS and Wachovia on 25 January would probably be raised by a combination of player sales and a new bank facility of less than £100m with a different bank.

Liverpool really are in a bind in that the repayment of the loan falls in an open transfer window so they have no excuse for not handing over the lolly. If they don't one could see the banks going for immediate administration to force the transfer sales.

Liverpool have spent all their profits buying a lot of duds as well as the occasional gem like Torres. There is no tradition of revenue generation which would enable a buyer to recoup the £350m (assuming it gets sold for £1 plus debts of which £250M is immediately repayable) through operations. To make Liverpool seriously profitable the new Anfield has to be built which means a total outlay of £650m on repaid debts and bricks and mortar. Chuck in another £150m for transfer net expenditure in the meantime and you are looking at relying on uncertain net profits of say £50m per annum starting at the earliest four years from now.

As an investment proposition, Gillett and Hicks have completely screwed Liverpool.

If DIC were doing their sums on Liverpool with a view to potentially making a return, I doubt they will come back if their motives are largely business ones. Liverpool have got to hope that the DIC guy really is a Liverpool fan and is willing to breath deeply as he gambles the Makhtoums' money on his toy with some scary looking risks and no prospect of the deal looking good for at least four years during which there are four seasons in which they have got to qualify for the CL every year and the UEFA CL broadcasts and Sky/Setanta deals have to continue at least at the current huge numbers.

If DIC don't turn up, Liverpool are then looking for a soccer nut with £800m cash spare who doesn't mind paying scally kids £25 every other week to "look after" his car. They are about six weeks too late for finding those sorts of chaps- they have all seen their wealth at least halve since August.

Not looking good for the red scousers.

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philipl World Cup

philipl

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Liverpool could be lucky with the Sheff U situation and unclear ownership making West Ham probably an impossible deal to do quickly and find DIC running out of options to pursue.

But even paying £1 for LFC in its current state is over-paying on any objective basis in this credit crunch climate.

A rational buyer would want to push at least £100m of the debts onto somebody else but nobody is going to do that.

Hicks and Gillett have successfully shifted 100% of their cost of ownership onto LFC wrapped around the new Anfield so having put nothing in to buy it, they are hardly going to put anything in to sell it.

The banks know their money is due to be repaid during an open transfer window. Selling Torres and Gerard in January would yield at least £100m net in total. Spurs would be ecstatic to swap Robbie Keane for the £19m and there are probably another five LFC players in the £15m bracket even in a firesale. Bingo £200m could be raised from asset sales is the way the banks will look at it and they couldn't give a damn about unhappy LFC supporters withdrawing their business- Wachovia and RBS need to shrink their operations anyway as part of their rescue plans. So the banks won't take a hair cut and at best might be willing to roll over £50m of the debt if there were an asset sale.

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