It clearly is fit for purpose as it has been adopted by the professionals in the industry who see value in it. As for using it on podcasts - it does provide a proxy for “balance of play”, which previously was the domain of stats such as %possession, % territory, corners, shots on target & so on. It is but one metric that indicates performance. In business, the headline stat is Sales…but there are loads of others that the sales director, the finance director and the CEO will be looking at to inform future decision-making. Football uses xG similarly.

Well…yes…which was kind of my point, albeit seemingly ambiguously made…

#RegressionToTheMean League position not xG

xG can only be calculated after the game so not sure how that entices betting TBH 🤔

xG is a statistical model so it’s based around probability based upon large & representative sample sizes & within those samples you would expect to see a normal distribution curve - in other words, in *this* position x% of players shooting will score. You can therefore objectively measure the probability of a chance being converted in certain circumstances - providing your sample size is of statistical significance, which is now the case in the modern game. Consequently, you are therefore absolutely correct to say that the fad of in-game aggregation of chances for that game only is flawed because the game unfolded in a certain way dependent upon the outcome of that chance. What it does though is represent the relative pressure & opportunities each side created. The xG of each individual chance is backed up by the database. I can recall in days of yore saying things like “we had 10 corners to their 1 yet lost 1-0…” - that was the 70’s equivalent of xG I guess 😉. However - over the course of a season, you can identify whether or not a team is out performing xG & from that deduce the extent to which you are riding your luck or may be due some. This also tells you whether your strikers are any good of course…😳 Over time, it tends to even itself out - my fear right now is that we are bucking the odds and at some point a correction will occur. #RegressionToTheMean

WARNING ANALOGY ALERT I liken xG to a dashboard that tells you how the car is driving. I get roughly say, 40-45mpg on a motorway run out of my car. On my way over the Pennines to Ewood, my mpg builds slowly as I leave the city & hit the M1. Then as I get to Leeds it tumbles until I’m over the hills past Huddersfield where it climbs again majestically as I glide down to Oldham. My trip computer MPG isn’t bollocks…it indicates that at certain points I’m performing better than expected and other times worse. My decision on when to fill up is influenced by how quickly I’m using my fuel up, historical experience of the journey and range left. I am fully aware that when I’m gliding down from Huddersfield to Oldham and clocking 70mpg that it isn’t going to last and at some point, I will regress to the mean of 40-45mpg. Similarly, I fully anticipate Rovers to regress to the mean if these xG trends continue. It’s just that our sample size isn’t big enough yet… Now diarise this post for the end of May 😉

Next up for Rovers is a trip down the length of the M62 to what ever the KC is called now...perhaps it's Boothferry Park ? Who knows ? As long as Hull don't call it off at 2:55pm then we should be in for an interesting afternoon in the home of Mick Ronson, Maureen Lipman Tom Courtenay and Lucy Beaumont. A chance for some quality fish & chips and hopefully wrapped in three points. Over to you folks...

Injury-plagued

Have a read & add your comments in the thread…👍🏻 https://www.brfcs.com/magazine/articles/rovers...are-we-any-good/308

The highs are higher…the lows are lower ?

I've been editing these old videos for a couple of years now...never seen this before !!! Anyhow...revel in Simon Garner's left peg notwithstanding...

His contract is up in the summer, he’s on large wages, the manager doesn’t fancy him. If we get any fee for him it will be a master stroke. I’ll always have a soft spot for him, if for no other reason than my now legendary verdict at Shrewsbury away that “he’s an elegant solution to a problem we don’t have…” 🤦‍♂️ finally vindicated after just five short years…😜 His departure, whenever it is, won’t cause me too much heartache, we’ve gotten used to life without him. BBD on the other hand…

https://www.brfcs.com/magazine/articles/500-words-after-sunderland/306

Be better if we were 12 points clear of ‘em !

First draw of the season…😉

This 👆🏻👏🏻👏🏻

He was always struggling after the yellow. He constantly checked himself when going for challenges & his effectiveness was impacted as a result. It will be interesting to see if he becomes one of those players whose reputation improves by not being in the team on Tuesday 😉

Let’s put it like this…how much do we think Phillips/Wharton are worth ? He’s every bit as good as them…and some…though I have high hopes that might be different in 3/4 years…

That was the problem…

Not a chance. 🤷‍♂️

Realistically we ain’t got enough money to tempt them…sadly.

https://www.brfcs.com/magazine/football/match/880892/middlesbrough-blackburn?tab=voting

https://www.brfcs.com/magazine/articles/they-played-for-both-rovers-and-boro/57