tldr: a fucking boring essay from that Canadian numbers nerd While there are some... passionate/angry posters I generally scroll past and maybe don't see much point in debating on some matters, it's not hard to at least understand why they're so pissed off. I admittedly get caught up debating shades of grey, seeing some merit to our alleged model. etc, but the overall failure of Venky's ownership is a black-and-white issue. For ~5-6 years, Venky's have funded a median-ish Championship wage bill (still less than half of parachute club wages!), which has kept us clear of relegation and on the edge of the playoffs a couple times. With our turnover, before player trading, that basically translates to an annual £20m operating loss. I won't say 'respected'... but that does need to be 'acknowledged'. Having owners that can stomach such losses separates us from Barnsley, Burton, Rotherham, Wigan, Wycombe, etc. (and Luton 🙂) in an ultimately unfair division. However, this year's cashflow SNAFU highlights our fatally flawed ownership. What good is a rich, 'benevolent' owner if they can barely transfer the cash needed to fund those losses? Whatever the model, suddenly needing to cut our budget by 15% / risking transfers due to sudden cashflow issues ties the hands of any seemingly competent director (GB), alienates talented managers (JDT), and bewilders clubs / agents we deal with. Even if Venky's have done their best to pull financial / legal strings to keep funds flowing this year (23-24 accounts will be interesting reading), it all highlights the risks of having pseudo-oligarch-like owners... Wharton's sale was sadly inevitable, which needs some acceptance. However, while there are risks to not cashing in with a decent offer on the table (see Dack), it's hard not to link selling now to this year's cashflow issues. Some of that may be bad luck (delayed Raya sell-on), but it's ridiculous if we've made that sale maybe a year early - with him signed to a long-term contract, happy to stay, possibly forgoeing an extra £5m as he develops, and meaning the contribution to our FFP window runs out in 25-26 rather than 26-27+ - because of cashflow issues due to our owner's legal issues. It's also simply fucking sad that we only got 1.5 years to watch a homegrown prodigal talent. Now, one way or another, we probably need average net sales of £5m per year if we want to maintain a median wage bill under FFP (as an aside, the sheer scale of the Brentford model needs to be acknowledged: their average player trading profit was £23m between 2016-21, capped by +£44m in their promotion year with the Watkins+Benhrama sales). Add in Raya sell-on, Kaminski, Phillips, I roughly calculate we have ~£12m of wages/fees to play with over the next couple years, but who knows what will happen if Venky's suddenly can only fund, say, £5-10m losses instead of £15-20m (with cuts to our wage bill having knock-on effects). At least GB has been proactive on contracts (getting that through Venky's heads is probably his greatest contribution; part of why I doubt our wage bill has dropped as much as some suspect), so we haven't quite sold the family silver. - Sheffield Utd supporting mate says Fleck's pretty washed, but also thought he can probably still do a job in the Championship. For the sake of getting this year over the line, with McFadz, I think there is some sense in bringing in a couple experienced heads without committing to an Ayala-like deal, but something to revisit in the summer. - Bit of a shame O'Riordan's signing has been so overshadowed, as that looks like a smart pick-up. - Good that Vale and Bloxham got loans, but disappointing that we couldn't sort loans for Gilsenan, Batty, Markanday, and/or Leonard. - McGuire's an interesting one as it's quite rare for an MLS draftee to excel like that. Possible we've caught him on a major upswing, but reason to be cautious. Loan-to-buy option lowers the risk (and amazing we've essentially funded that by shipping out Ennis) and maybe he will excel and we'll be happy to take up the option for £5m+ (sneer at MLS if you like, but it should be noted that (successful) £5-10m+ MLS sales aren't out of the norm these days), but if we apparently had to cancel a £3-4m deal to arrange that, it again highlights Venky's schizo funding.

I'd note some caution as Bradley was probably 2 years past his retirement date 🙂, amid TFC being a general basketcase last year... Certainly an interesting one. Rare to see an NCAA product explode like he did at the MLS level, let alone at higher levels. Orlando fans seem quite fond of him.

Some of the hate Gallagher gets is... bizarre. He's a flawed player, but c'mon.* *I bravely say so after a game where he played well. Siggy's got some concerning attributes, but he does have that 'moment of quality' potential that too many of our attackers lack... JDT's overall record against L1/L2 clubs in the Cups: 6-0-0, 27 GF (4.5/game) 7 GA (1.2/game). It has its flaws, but his attacking style certainly tears up lesser competition...

Yeah, I also thought that was an interesting aside from Waggott. Does highlight that even if Venky's have generally provided a... 'generous' amount of funding over the years, some of our sclerotic decision-making seems to link to that funding being incredibly inflexible (even before this year's cashflow SNAFUs). Seems we get a fixed budget every year, and I guess like any subsidiary within a business empire of sorts, we have to fight tooth and nail for flexibility on top of that, causing painful delays, even with an unprojected cash inflow like a cup run. This Athletic article about Mowbray's slow-motion departure (undoubtedly fed by friends of his) highlighted how Suhail happily downplayed his experience in football matters (and the article claims Mowbray ultimately got along with and respected the role of Suhail) but then inevitably gets over-involved negotiations. Even 'simple' deals drag on forever; see Moran's loan deal or the O'Riordan signing. We obviously need to wring everything we can out of our pounds, but not to the point of paralyzing the club. It should be noted that while the cup runs definitely helped our finances last year (going by the VLL accounts, we're probably looking at our best turnover since the PL), it will have also caused other costs to go up (I look forward to many fans' surprise that our wage bill was actually grew last year when our official accounts come out in ~April!)

https://theathletic.com/5224892/2024/01/25/crystal-palace-adam-wharton-transfer-blackburn/ (paywalled) associated article, but it doesn't say much beyond the tweet other than Wharton's highly rated, etc. Whatever is a 'fair' price for Wharton today, I just don't see the case for selling him now. 1) Suppose we 'could' get £20m for Wharton now. Maybe a fair enough price, but you can easily imagine that increasing to an Alex Scott-ish £25m after a strong 2nd half. As good as Wharton is and will be, he's definitely had his blemishes in the first half and we can expect him to keep improving. 2) I totally understand the handwringing about our recent form, but (and I may regret saying this 🙂) I don't think there's a huge relegation risk given our 9 point cushion (let's not forget there are some rank teams in the division this year...). I think we are due for some degree of regression after an awful run. Maybe it would allow us to spend a few million to rebalance the squad for the rest of the season, but I'd lean toward that being short-sighted. 3) With this year's budget issues, this is a consolidation year of sorts... In FFP terms, getting £20-25m next year (or later) would set us up financially for 2024-25 through to 2026-27. A panic sell this year would see that runway run out in 2025-26. Getting the Raya money this coming summer helps in that regard too... (Obviously another question of the extent that money would actually be spent on transfers, maintaining a median-ish wage bill in this divison, etc. I will shy away from suggesting a warchest is afoot haha... At the very least, FFP would absolutely not be an excuse for a few years!) Other variables: - Venky's-related cashflow issues... if we're selling, and potentially foregoing an extra £5m in the future, simply to get some cash into the club today... well, that's as clear as it gets that our ownership is not fit for purpose given the financial 'demands' of this division. - If Wharton's head is suddenly turned by PL money, etc., frankly, there's a limit to how much you can block players from such opportunities as a middling Championship club. An unfortunate reality, but given his new contract, affinity for Rovers, etc., that risk is relatively low in this case.

I thought Lenihan only finally thrived when part of that back 3 with van Hecke and Wharton/Ayale. Gave him the freedom to break up plays in midfield, with the other 2 covering. Generally think you need to grade all CBs on a curve as to whether they're part of a back 2 or back 3!

"Criticism of Gallagher on this forum is way overblown"

Interesting that JDT brought up loaning out Batty: https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/sport/24035012.blackburn-rovers-boss-chrisene-deal-batty-plans/ Would make sense after loaning in Chrisene. Definitely needs some steady gametime after apparently more injury issues. I only count 7 starts so far this year with the u21s (across PL2/PLC/PLIC) + starting the Carabao game against Walsall. Only turning 19 in April, so still time and not a 'failure' that he's not a depth option. LT article on Chrisene: https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/sport/24036008.aston-villa-prospect-ben-chrisene-blackburn-rovers-loan/ At least looks pretty strong for a 19 yo going by the photos within and Villa fans suggest he's physically ready for the pros. Coming back from an MCL tear, but maybe benefitted from plenty of gym time. Kilmarnock fans raved about his spell there before he got hurt.

I'd note major caution about any of those sites apparently listing every player's wages. They're no better than ballpark guesses about confidential salaries. Same with FM. That's not unique to us. For example, the same site has PNE's basic wages at £12.2m, but their latest accounts have total staff costs at £23.9m. (Funny how pro salaries are so public in North American sports in contrast!) As KentExile noted, they'll be missing a lot of other bonuses, etc. Even if our basic wages may have fallen last year, it's worth noting that VLL's accounts up to March 2023 actually saw wages and salaries rise from £24.8m to £25.8m, likely due to a couple extended cup runs and a relatively successful season (total headcount also increased from 209 to 219). Likewise, VLL reported turnover of £19.9m, which would be our best result since parachute payments ended. Rovers' actual accounts for 22/23 should come out in April. However, it's this past summer where we may see significant cuts emerge... the 23/24 should prove interesting reading in 1.5 years' time...

Is Batty injured again? He hasn't featured for the u21s since 1 Dec. Also reportedly had a minor injury in the summer... Disappointing he hasn't stepped up to be proper depth at LB yet, but he's only 18. Injuries seem to be holding him back. He's only made 8 appearances across all competitions this season according to soccerway and only 17 last season. Other fullback options: Cirino's injured, haven't heard much hype around Haddow, Gent's on loan (starting to make consistent starts at Motherwell, which is good to see), maybe Duru as he's popped up on the bench recently and will turn 19 soon. Anyway, I can see the case for bringing in Chrisene as (cheap...) temporary FB depth. Apparently did quite well on loan at Kilmarnock before getting injured last year.

- I think something along these lines was mentioned earlier, but The Athletic is reporting that we've had two loan bids rejected for Orlando City striker Duncan McGuire, and are expected to be make a third loan bid (amid interest from FC Nantes, FC Utrecht, and RWD Molenbeek): https://theathletic.com/5177729/2024/01/04/mls-january-transfer-window/ (might be paywalled). 15 goals over 37 appearances in his rookie MLS season. - On O'Riordan's incoming, worth noting he's cup-tied for the FA Cup. May relate to the debate on holding on to Hill for one more weekend. Doubt we'd want to risk Hyam and presumably S. Wharton won't be ready. Perhaps time for Gamble... Such a shame that Barnes got hit with another long-term injury. - It's spread across L1/L2/Scottish Championship, but notable that O'Riordan's actually accumulated a decent amount of pro experience for his age: 76 league/cup appearances (+ a bit of non-league!)

The point is it's a silly way to rate/write off any GK coach.

By my count (which depends given some teams have multiple coaches and if you want to count coaches who did play as a youth...), about 20-30% of PL GK coaches have zero experience as a professional GK. Just saying. #BenBensonFanClub

- Jackson mentioned that Broughton claims we expect about £5m for Raya in the summer, FWIW (ducks) (https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/sport/24014940.blackburn-agree-transfer-fee-ahead-transfer-window/). Have to assume whatever (nominal) clause have been easily met. Would bring the overall Raya sale to ~£9m, which frankly isn't too shabby (ducks again). - I don't see Bournemouth recalling Hill. Presumably they're happy with his gametime and they've been on a great run of late. Hill's last few games would presumably give them pause about him being a short-term solution... Had a glance at their forum and they seem generally happy with depth and are primarily worried about strikers. (edit: perhaps I'm 100% wrong haha...) - Shame about Buckley's loan/injury. 5 starts + 8 subs for a woeful Sheffield Wed isn't great and seemed to get mixed reviews from their fans, but not exactly put in a position to succeed. However, given he had apparently been surpassed by Garrett in preseason and Garrett's only gotten 2 league starts + 9 subs (+4 cup starts), doubtful he'd have gotten any more gametime here. (Anyone else getting Davenport vibes from Garrett? Has shown flashes as a sub and against inferior Cup opposition, but seems overwhelmed with full starts. Still young and has something to him, so certainly not giving up on him yet!).

Reminded me of a map that was put together a few years back of the cheapest pint at each tube station's nearest pub. Turns out it was updated in 2022: https://storekit.com/advice/storekit-london-tube-map-cheapest-pints-closest-pub-2022 A useful resource if the cheapest pint possible is your sole pub criteria haha £6+ becoming the norm for macro lagers pints... Serves me right for choosing to live in London anyway 🙂

Tronstad fast becoming my favourite Rover...

Funnily enough, despite a long post about Wharton, it completely went by me that he was one of the players Morton was being selected ahead of hahaha... I was too caught up thinking how Buckley failed in the role and the likes of Travis obviously aren't suited for it. Fair point and definitely a controversial one. All I can say is we have to give JDT some benefit of the doubt there given his quotes above about Wharton needing to learn to become a professional footballer and his regular comments on his defensive work.

Some quotes from JDT: https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/sport/23980872.tomasson-gives-wharton-verdict-new-blackburn-deal/ Fair summary. “I saw immediately the potential in Adam when I came here,” Tomasson told RoversTV. “I gave him minutes immediately and then I took him out of the team because I thought he needed to learn about being a professional football player. “I saw the quality on the ball. He can do things that nobody sees before, he can play passes under pressure, he can play one-touch and he has great vision. “I think he’s stepping up to another level from the start of this season. On the ball, he’s Champions League level, I’ve said that many times. I’ve played there and coached enough at Champions League level and I should know that. "I think he’s learning a lot off the ball and is improving a lot. He’s still a young boy who needs to learn a lot but he’s improving really well. “He’s a good boy and someone who the Academy have worked with, so it’s great for the community to have one of the local boys signing a new deal and playing the way he is. “He also has weaknesses that we’re working on and he’s improving all the time. You can always work on becoming better. There’s still plenty to come.” --- He obviously has work to do defensively, but I don't think it's fair to say he's useless. He's definitely made some very key interceptions and well-timed tackles here and there (see all of that Blackpool game last year!). Just a work in progress, and having the likes of Tronstad alongside him to clean up is looking promising. His effort level can sometimes look wanting but I think some of that is simply because of his somewhat 'gangly' running style... As suggested above re: Rice as a comparable, my suspicion is they want to develop him into a deep-lying playmaker/6, where transfer fees have skyrocketed. See this (paywalled) Athletic article comparing the likes of Caicedo, Rice, Lavia, Fernandez...: https://theathletic.com/4787143/2023/08/20/caicedo-rice-lavia-transfer-fees/ Would be interesting to see how Wharton's numbers compare for the some of metrics cited within: passes completed, turnover rate, passes into final third, touches, passes under pressure, progressive passes, interceptions and 'true' tackle win rate... definitely will be part of what PL scouts will be tracking. I think part of why Morton was generally an automatic pick last year was he our only midfielder who could semi-reliably take the ball on the half-turn in our third and JDT wants Wharton to take on that role this year. I still have some hope for Buckley, but he clearly failed to take on that role last year.

Enjoyed watching the full replay this morning (missed it last night while having ACL surgery yesterday, ack! Convalescence begins!) (and full screen worked fine using Chrome on a Mac for me...) The likes of Szmodics/Brittain/Moran/Dolan have really taken to JDT's insistence on one-touch passing. There have been some beautiful build ups!

I weirdly recall Samuel being a lone bright spot during our shaky start to the L1 season. Looks like my memory is correct: https://www.soccerbase.com/players/player.sd?player_id=65490&season_id=150 4 goals in 6 games (include 1 goal in 2 EFL Cup games). He then went pretty quiet (and I think the lore is that Mowbray had to crack Dack and Graham's heads together after their "less than committed..." start to the season before things took off) He played more than I remembered that year: 41 appearances total, mostly relegated to a sub role as the likes of Armstrong, Graham, and Antonsson surpassed him.

Our reported 'intermediary' fees have been on the lower end of the Championship the past few years (£697k for Feb 2022-Jan 2023, which ranks us only 20th in the Championship), so I'd suspect that amount relates to accumulated/unpaid agent fees/commissions, as apparently rumoured, rather than anything new given our limited transfers of late. Extrapolating that salary and wages figure for Oct-Dec 2023 suggests our wage bill is down to £15.3m, but shouldn't take that extrapolation too seriously given it won't include various bonuses that accumulate over the year, signing on fees, etc. General assumption was that our wage bill had fallen a lot last year, but the VLL accounts suggest it actually rose to £25.8m in 2022-23 (vs £24.8m in 2021-22; note the Blackburn Roves accounts have staff costs at £24.4m), possibly due to bonuses related to our relative success on the pitch, a couple deep-ish cup runs, etc.

Burns has had an interesting trajectory since leaving in the summer... Greek 2nd division Panachaiki (no appearances) to Northern Premier League Divison One (Level 8) Bootle (think I saw he got a couple goals in a few games there) to NW Counties Premier Division (Level 9) Bury... If you feel like watching highlights of Northern Premier League Marine getting pumped 5-1 in the FA Cup First Round by League 2 Harrogate Town - by my simplistic analysis, we could then be expected to beat Marine 13-1 - with our Felix Goddard in net: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/67279025 Uh, caught out a little bit on that 2nd goal... An odd loan, but I'd guess he's just there for game days to shout at / be shouted at by overweight 35+ CBs, while still training with Benson and Co. Marine did actually manage a few decent chances...

hell yeah #BenBensonFanClub

Fixed that for you...

Haha... Having said that, I won't begrudge him too much for that one...