
bluebruce
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Uncouth Garb - The BRFCS Store
Everything posted by bluebruce
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Thing is, teams know the 'beat Rovers blueprint'. Once they go 1 up, they're best just shoring up and showing minimal ambition to score again. As everyone except TM knows we are better on the counter. I believe this is the real reason for so many 1 goal defeats instead of 2 or 3 goal defeats. Not Tony's hard luck tales.
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They don't even need to maximise. Rotherham would only need 2 wins from their 4 games in hand to be 5 points behind us. That and a Coventry win from their game in hand and we would indeed be 5 points (and our GD) from the drop zone as you say. With presumably the worst form in the league, this is all getting very worrying...but Tony doesn't seem to think it's a possibility. Sleep-walking into disaster potentially.
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I want whatever works out best overall for the club. And the prospect of TM in charge for next season makes me consider relegation a very real possibility. Maybe even this season if we're not careful. That's why I say I'm not sure I want us to win. If we do I'll celebrate it as always of course, that's what the game's about.
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I have a funny feeling that, despite all logic, we will win this one. Just feels like it's due. I'm not sure I want us to - despite what many say, I feel sure there is a theoretical point at which he will be sacked, and I don't think we are all that far off it. Lose the next three and I'd be surprised if even Venkys keep him in situ. But if we win today I suspect it will take the pressure off his back for another relegation-threatening 5 games or so of dire results. Feels like when he normally pulls a point or three out the bag. In theory though we should get tonked the way we are playing.
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Summer transfer window 2021.
bluebruce replied to chaddyrovers's topic in Blackburn Rovers Fans Messageboard
On the topic of unanswered questions, you didn't reply to one of mine. Ok, the owners have backed TM financially, but if we have a proper ownership and aren't badly managed as a club, why is TM still in charge? The buck stops with the manager, but if the owners won't replace a manager who is severely underperforming and the majority of fans want gone, the buck stops with them instead. -
Summer transfer window 2021.
bluebruce replied to chaddyrovers's topic in Blackburn Rovers Fans Messageboard
I didn't realise talking about Tony Mowbray had that effect on you. -
Summer transfer window 2021.
bluebruce replied to chaddyrovers's topic in Blackburn Rovers Fans Messageboard
Interesting notion- Tony Mowbray wouldn't have bought Tony Mowbray. -
Summer transfer window 2021.
bluebruce replied to chaddyrovers's topic in Blackburn Rovers Fans Messageboard
And you know if a player is doing well by watching them. Yet data on players has become a very prominent tool. In most lines of work, a management hire will usually have to justify themselves at least partially in numbers. Truth is almost anything in existence can be explained in numbers. It's just a case of establishing how. Stats like possession can be used to make Mowbray look good - but only if you ignore all the other stats that make him look bad, like this terrible run we are on, an almost inevitable decline in league position and points this year, and the stats I posted in the other thread that show his strategy of controlling possession backfires. Empirically. -
Summer transfer window 2021.
bluebruce replied to chaddyrovers's topic in Blackburn Rovers Fans Messageboard
Maybe win percentage relative to win percentage that club had in the year before a manager took over. Like a win percentage improvement stat. Although I'd say points are more important than wins. Difficult with promoted sides, but for those you could take an aggregate of the three promoted teams from the season before (or a 5, 10 year aggregate if you liked) and create an 'expected points' metric to compare it to, sort of in the vein of xg. Then see how the manager performs for points compared to that. Depending how you view these things you could also base it on teams who have finished 1st, 2nd or won the playoffs, to tailor it more, but I think I saw a stat years ago that the team winning the playoffs actually tend to do better than the team finishing 2nd, so that might indicate it isn't too useful. It might be possible to add in other factors too, like net transfer spend relative to performance, or altering the expected points metric, with a bit of tinkering. Tricky though, especially since so many fees are undisclosed which probably makes it a non starter. Maybe player number turnover though, which could indicate how a manager deals with a rebuild. On the whole I agree managers are harder to run data on, but there are things that can be done. Comparing league finish to that predicted by the bookies could be another, although that has an element of subjectivity.