Last season, some time around December 2019 I think (though I can't find it), I posted the data showing that when we had the bigger share of the possession, we actually came away with less points. I suggested this showed our real potency was as a counter-attacking side and that when we tried to control games it didn't work. Since then, we have actively transitioned to base our whole game around keeping possession. The manager has actively talked about this, and recently has talked about how all the best teams and those which go up are possession teams. With this in mind, I thought it was time to parse over the data again and see whether he is right, that controlling possession helps us, or if my instinctive observation is correct that it is actually hampering results. Possession data was taken from Google (type Blackburn Rovers in Google, then click matches, then select any given match to see stats). I appreciate the data might show differently via other sources, but this was the simplest way for me to put it together. It's for this season only, and does NOT include the two cup games (defeat to Newcastle when we had 65% possession and defeat to Doncaster with us on 68% possession), as I'm looking for points per game, but if these were included it would only look worse. I've done points per game to 3 decimal places, rounding up if the 4th decimal was a 5 or above. I'll post a full breakdown of opponents, possession and points in another post here after, if anyone wants to cross-check the data I used, pick out interesting outcomes, etc. When we have 51% possession or more Games: 27 Points: 29 Points per game (PPG): 1.074 When we have 50% or less (note - all were 49 or lower) Games: 7 Points: 14 PPG: 2 This is an admittedly small sample for less than 50%, as we have frequently controlled possession (which in itself given our league position shows that possession doesn't equal points). However, in just 7 games we took nearly half the points we took in 27 games. Nearly a third of our total points in just 7 games. Nearly double the points per game. It's also worth noting that in our only defeat in those 7 we still had 49% possession, the higher end of this bracket, nearly an even split. One of those 7 games where we only got a point involved us losing a man to a red card. Meanwhile, the 27 games where we had more possession included 6 red cards for the opposition, none for us. 12 points out of those 29 points were gained in the 6 games where we played against 10 men. When we haven't been able to get a man sent off, we have taken 17 points from 21 games when controlling possession. Which is 0.81 points per game (which by the way if extrapolated would be just over 37 points from a season). Alright, but what about degrees of possession? After all, there's not much in it between us having 51% or 49%. So I broke it down into roughly 10% sections for the main sample size of 51% or over. When we have 50-59% possession Games: 11 Points: 11 PPG: 1 When we have 60-69% possession Games: 13 Points: 11 PPG: 0.846 When we have 70% or more possession Games: 3 Points: 7 PPG: 2.333 OK, so some better news for possession fans here, in a way. Although when we have 60+ we actually do worse than 50+, which once more affirms the more possession we have the worse we do, when we absolutely DOMINATE possession at 70 upwards, we come away with a terrific return. A few problems there though. 1) 6 of those points came in the 2 games where the opposition had someone sent off. The other game was just a draw. 2) It's a very, very small sample this time. 3) You can't go in with a gameplan of 70% possession every week, it won't happen. I'd say the data pretty heavily confirms, along with our eyes and our league position using this style, that basing our play on keeping possession rather than going for the throat doesn't work for us. I'm not saying possession games can't be successful, they absolutely can. I'm saying it doesn't work for us, with this team, under this manager. I feel we are more dangerous on the counter attack, as well as more susceptible against a counter attack. Last season's data told a similar story when I gathered it, and although I didn't finish last season's, anecdotally I'd say it appeared to be a continuation of the same pattern, as I did keep an eye on it. I think this has been going on long enough now that the coaching team need to be reconsidering their approach. With all the data analysis staff and facilities these days, this persistent failure of our possession game has surely come to their attention by now. If I've made an error with any of the data here, feel free to correct me.

I'm picking a side...the sidelines. Don't rate Buckley at this time, and Whiteman clearly isn't coming here any time so couldn't give a hairy shit about him.

It's enthralling watching Team Buckley debate Team Whiteman all year. /endsarcasm

Armstrong does squander shots instead of passing at times. But of those, about half are ones that no other player in the team would carve out for themselves as consistently in the first place. Yes he needs to get smarter with the ball and stop trying to constantly score worldies (primarily cos it isn't working this season, with zero goals from outside the box I believe, whereas second half of last season he was rattling those in with impunity). But he is not the problem, nor even close to it.

I mean...yeh, technically 😆

Burnley u23s. Who as we know, play a division lower than us. I'm suspecting it's more a case of making their youth team more competitive in the hope of reaching top tier to attract proper youngsters. Like how we brought in Lyons and White at fairly advanced ages for youth players. I never felt like either was expected to break into the first team. I'd even say Lyons has exceeded expectations, but he doesn't seem to be remotely considered for our first team.

Aye. Time will tell if Mols is a Tomlinson or a King, or something inbetween, we will just have to wait and see now. I'm still not too worried though. The Spanish side may have a stupid manager, but their 4th tier is a lot weaker than our 4th tier. If he is as good as we would need him to be, now being 22, I don't feel it would matter how bad their manager was. It was a shame to hear how little impact he made there, as he did seem a cracking prospect at one time. Agree our use of young players, both in terms of the first team and the loans we manage to get them, isn't where it should be despite some successful break through to the first team.

Once or twice, but I'll take your answer as you don't know why he hasn't been able to get into a poor Spanish side once men's football came along, at an age when he should really be kicking on. And yes, I'm aware he was rated by those who had seen him regularly. I'm also aware numerous other highly rated youth players have vanished into obscurity because men's football is different gravy. Even to use one sort of making his way in senior football, there was more noise about Buckley and I'm yet to be impressed.

Why couldn't he regularly get a game at a poor level in Spain?

I wouldn't worry too much. I don't think somebody at his age who couldn't trouble the Spanish 4th tier (was it?) is going to be playing in the Prem. They'll be looking to sign him to cheaply boost their u23 team for a bit.

Yes I know he played in a league game for their u23s. U23s is not what I meant by a competitive pro game. Maybe the loan outside a window isn't possible (although it's a youth loan- that's the terminology that was used when we borrowed DM Wright-Phillips), but a trial, I'm virtually certain that's allowed and enables you to play youth games. But not first team games. We are only going in circles here though. I'd be surprised if Mols is gone with no announcement though.

You certainly can in the youth teams on FM (but not in competitive pro games). It's not real life I know, but they're rarely wrong with those kinds of details.

Not necessarily, and in fact we probably haven't. The LT article implied he is under contract as they said he is expected to leave in the summer. If we plan to release it makes sense to let them trial him, with the other kids who might have a future here doing well in the league. Hopefully we can let him leave with a sell on, or just loan him out for the rest of the season to save a bit of wage. Pretty sure youth loans are allowed outside the full window - didn't Wright-Phillips join us that way?

Scored 5 goals. Was a crap Prem player but as shown when he went to Ipswich and scored 9 in 20, probably alright at our current level. Which shows up how bad some of our current lot must be relative to the old days...

What? He said we will have our recruitment sorted in...five years?

We aren't playing quality balls over the top for him. We are playing tippy tappy in the middle all game. If you don't think Armstrong has devastating pace for this level there really isn't a discussion to be had. Teams aren't worried about the second top scorer in the league is a cracker though, I'll give you that. (And yes we know he is no real threat in the air, everyone will agree on that one except TM I'd say)

Sorry, you don't think Armstrong has the pace to consistently get in behind?

It might come to that if he is still here when the fans return...

Can't see it. Most games he looks like he can barely even stand, and some games he doesn't.

Jesus christ. THB is the worst of the two. Hasn't shown anything yet.

Joao is undoubtedly a better player than Gally or BB, but I can't help but wonder whether he would have scored for us either if bought instead...after all, the track record with the players he bought instead suggests LJ would have been played on the fecking wing.

If it was actually state of the art, and on a bigger plot of land, yes. We all doubt the first, and the second we already know about.

The alternative to playing Pike at RB isn't to play Travis there. Neither of those things will happen. Nyambe will play RB unless rested. He won't play CB. One of the two CBs we have loaned will, and Nyambe will play in his best position. I'm expecting Branthwaite to line up beside Lenihan. Apart from the comedy show (Preston was it?) Branthwaite has mostly looked solid with the more experienced head of Lenihan beside him. With THB they both looked like what they were, children. Lenihan has he odd rush of blood game, like the comedy show I mentioned, but when he keeps his cool they have worked alright together. THB just looks crap so far.

Solid result away, with no Pike or McBride due to first team 'involvement'.

Nonsense. If anybody knows about what's in-bread it's that Burnley lot.