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philipl

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Everything posted by philipl

  1. LT- Rovers not considering Duff
  2. I don't know what your gripe is. As to what will happen to Man U- they will carry on but thankfully unable to use their current succes to obliterate all opposition because of the Glazers' ownership. As to what will happen to the Glazers- their economic model is not working and they have an extremely tough credit climate to try to make it work. Profits even in this wildly successful season are scarcely paying interest never mind settling debt and they have £150m of hedge fund money that takes the keys to OT off them in May 2010 if they don't pay it off with interest.
  3. This is really amusing as football supporters' memories can so easily be clouded by subsequent events. Go back to when the Glazers were buying into Man U and look at it through that time perspective- Things that have gone in their favour are: - On field performance has been ahead of plan and budget It was by no means assured that Man U would start winning again. Abramovich, Mourinho and Chelsea looked like they were disappearing into a league of one with financial muscle nobody could compete with and the personnel to make it happen. United were one of the rivals-Arsenal were about to complete the Emirates and had a fabulous young team whilst Liverpool were up for sale and could have been bought by an olygarch or Middle Eastern royalty. - Coming through the two year limitation on transfers without damaging the on-field performance Literally every big money signing RFW has made since the Glazers have arrived has been a success. If RFW had not improved his success percentage in the transfer market from what it was before, there would have been no double. - The collective Sky/Setanta deal being more than anticipated At the time the Glazers were buying, the EU were still involved and every EPL club was budgeting on a 10% reduction in media income, not a 30% increase which is what transpired. - The willingness of the Mancs to pay 12% per annum price increases four years running and swallowing the forced buying of seats for Cup matches This is the sad one for ordinary fans. There were always enough prawn sandwiches to replace the decent Man U fans with not enough in their pockets. And to repeat the point I made earlier. All the prize and media money from the double this year is not enough to pay this year's interest bill. The Glazers leveraged their past history to take a huge gamble on Man U using other people's money. And the rest of us all agree- good luck to them because as a plc, Man U would now be so far out of sight it would be breath taking. Imagine what Ferguson would be doing with a £100m+ transfer budget this summer. Of the current generation of owners, Abramovich and Lerner are heroes in that they are genuinely adding to the value and worth of their clubs. Glazers and Hicks/Gillett are zeroes who are doing nothing but destroying value and worth in their clubs.
  4. I am not saying they are random events and I am not saying they are buffoons- you are making those bits up yourself!
  5. Just out of curiosity, were there any sightings of the Glazer clan on Wednesday? If not, has there been any comment?
  6. Players play best (and mangers manage best) when they feel 1) confident, secure 2) Relaxed 3) Focussed 4) Aware of what is expected of them and how to achieve these targets. Blackburn Rovers are an excellent provider of those four things. Spurs, West Ham and Newcastle United are extraordinarily poor at it. Very good point and something to be extremely wary of if Rovers change ownership.
  7. Shame he won't miss any more Newcastle games assuming he's a good boy inside.
  8. That is why I wrote the Glazers and not Man U would be wiped out- I should have said the Glazers' control over Man U would be wiped out. Come on its very obvious what the Glazers have done- they have had the balls to gamble much bigger than any other people were willing to do and had the reputational collateral of having done enough good deals in the past to gamble almost 100% with other people's money. They got the deals away to buy Man U when market conditions were ideal for doing this. There is no way they could pull the same trick this summer. And in part therein lies their problem: Things that have gone in their favour are - On field performance has been ahead of plan and budget - Coming through the two year limitation on transfers without damaging the on-field performance - The collective Sky/Setanta deal being more than anticipated - The willingness of the Mancs to pay 12% per annum price increases four years running and swallowing the forced buying of seats for Cup matches Things that have not gone in their favour are - The famed intercontinental marketing expertise is making very modest headway in terms of building revenues and profits - Failure to get good deals on rolling debt in the first twelve months did not cut interest charges in the way the Glazers hoped - Failure to take an unattractive deal to refinance 18 months ago whereas now the market conditions mean there are simply no deals to be done - As a consequence, debt is increasing and interest charges growing faster than the rate of growth in revenue and earnings before interest depreciation and amortisation - And they are now at the mercy of a Hedge Fund which can put Directors on the Board any time it wants. No doubt it is extracting a high price in terms of management information being supplied in detail and very frequently. The Glazer high wire act continues gratis the Premier League title and the trip to Moscow but it just means if they over-balance in any way, they will fall higher and heavier. Do you know how they are handling the May 2010 deadline by the way? Indebtedness of Man U and Chelsea. Two points worth remembering- Jack Walker also used interest free loans to Rovers which the Trust converted into ordinary shares when the change of accounting rules meant that the club would struggle to maintain its ordinary business if they were not converted. The fact Chelsea have not done that means they must be getting 100% of their ordinary finance from Abramovich and not using banks. - Abramovich has spent a larger sum on luxury yachts and airplanes than some estimates put the Glazer family wealth at.
  9. Imagine facing all that white the morning after the night before..... I was reaching for an aspirin just looking at that picture after a long day on the go.
  10. How do you work that one out Eddie? If there were a 20% reduction in money available all round in the EPL, Rovers would have temporary pain but with the Trust ownership and no unmanageable debts, we'd come through relatively OK. As it is, the Rovers' board always has to plan for us having a poor season- finishing 17th rather than 7th would probably take 15% out of the Rovers' income. The Glazers on the other hand would be wiped out- £40m less per year to service debt which in turn would be unsupported by enterprise value as that would fall by much more than 20% because all the growth assumptions would have gone through the window.
  11. If Hughes goes for him, he's good enough. If not, he's not.
  12. OK look at it this way- In the year Man U recaptured the Premier League title, their overall debt increased by 50% more than Spurs' total turn over. About half that increase in debt came through Man U buying the likes of Hargreaves, Anderson, Nani and Vidic on the never never. And that is the unfair advantage that Platini is talking about sorting out which most certainly would be good for the rest of the Premiership and a reason why I am very nervous about Rovers' ownership going that way. Why do you think Tevez is saying he hopes Man U will buy him in the papers today? Because he is there on loan and the way things are looking, Man U might well never exercise their option to buy him for the simple reason they are not able to.
  13. Platini raises the issue of withdrawing UEFA licenses from indebted clubs again. The table underneath is a year out of date- United's debts had grown by another £115m when the latest accounts were filed at Companies House last week.
  14. According to the BBC: Newcastle are set to beat north-east rivals Middlesbrough for the signature of Galatasaray winger Arda Turan, a deal which could lead to Damien Duff leaving St James' Park I'd rather remember Duffer in the blue and white halves in his prime.
  15. 95% of this board is ABU. The facts are the facts. So Man U win the Premiership and reach the final of the CL. Even if they win the CL the fantastic double they will have achieved will earn them £80m combined from and the EPL and UEFA and be ....... NOT ENOUGH TO PAY THIS YEAR'S INTEREST BILL
  16. As the build-up to the Champions League final begins with Ronaldo giving an ambiguous interview, I couldn't help but reflect how grateful the rest of football should be to the Glazers. The combined cost to Man U of the Glazer intervention is already going north of £250m - interest charges of over £200m in the three years' published accounts to date - transaction costs (the cost of buying Man U) by the Glazers of £42m (admitted publicly) - defence costs by the plc (the costs to Man U of trying not to be bought by the Glazers) of £25m Set against that, the total additional revenue to Man U because of the Glazers is certainly much less than £100m - the amount the AIG sponsorship exceeds the next highest sponsor bidding price (that is assuming the Glazers made that happen) - the rest is made up of ripping off the Manc fans in higher seat prices, MUTV fees and merchandising costs. There are two realities: 1) Apart from ripping off the Manc fans, the Glazers had no magic marketing formula and shown no innovative skills whatsoever in extending the reach of the Manc empire that the plc was not already involved in (even the extension of OT to 76,000 was already in build) whilst other stadium expansion plans have been shelved indefinitely. 2) The world has been spared from the RFW running round with an extra £200m in his pocket which would undoutedly have funded the most formidable football squad ever assembled. For that the rest of football has every reason to be truly thankful that the Glazers have crippled the Mancs. And in true cash terms, MUFC has to spin off another £billion+ in interest and repayments before its balance sheet is restored to the strength it had as a plc.
  17. The LT has reported Matt's hernia operation was a success and he should be in great shape after four weeks' convalescence.
  18. There was a real hoot when Score did its season's end lists. Ray Stubbs chose Kenwynne Jones as his buy of the season and Gavin Peacock pointed out that his choice for flop of the season- Darren Bent- had scored more goals than Kenwynne Jones had. Of course no Rover mentioned there either.
  19. I was being ironic.
  20. What a surprise, not even an honourable mention in the team of the season.
  21. You've answered your own point r6. Olsson good enough, rest sadly are not.
  22. Let's hope he's minded to play a blinder against Villa as he seeks alternative employment.
  23. Berner was bought at the same time as Rovers bought a highly injury-prone left back whose number of appearances at Liverpool from kid to age 25 will be eclipsed by his number of appearances for Rovers in the first week of next season. We bought a player with 19 international caps and numerous UEFA Cup appearances as experienced cover. Exactly what any club with serious top ten and European aspirations should do and always will do in those circumstances. Warnock has proved a big success at Rovers, has kept fit and benefitted from regular starts (similar to Roque up front). But that was by no means certain 18 months ago and so Berner was as essential a signing as the Axe. If both Berner and the Axe are getting close to superfluous now, it is a measure of how the Rovers are developing as a team and a squad. Young players are part of the picture if they get to the EPL level on the training pitch or out on loan- Derbyshire and Olsson are; Neillsen by repute is; Gallagher and Peter very tenuously and the rest are aspirants. We go into the last game of the season with £2.25m and a get out of jail card for UEFA qualification resting on it. No way are youngsters ever going to be bloodied unless they are for sure going to make a positive impact. We tried a youngster against Coventry and for whatever reasons, Rovers produced the worst result since we were promoted back to the Premiership. For all of the arguments to the contrary, Hughes is handling selection to the first team 100% correctly so far as youngsters go. Lucky breaks (combinations of senior squad injuries and suspensions) come along every season- it is about having youngsters with the skill and physical and mental strength to seize the moment when it is presented, not when they might think they are ready. That said, there does seem to be something wrong with the running of the Academy/Reserves set up but it is a different issue from selection to the senior squad or the first team.
  24. oops! Rijkard is out of Barcelona so one of Sparky's old clubs is looking for a Manager. Both Barca and Real Madrid have made unlikelier appointments in the past.
  25. I would be happy if he comes back and happy if he doesn't. Lucas has various big investment plans in Oz for when he finishes playing and the Wham Lucash deal was all part of the plan. He's likely to be offered the same as Ljungberg (GBP3m) to go away from Upton Park but he is sure to still have his eye on the $$$. Lucas' problem is that he has slipped from being the highly rated player he was at ewood and I would be amazed if a Big 4 would be interested now. However, there are enough clubs with deep pockets for wage bills around for someone to snap him up before Rovers would be a realistic option so the Lucash worriers needn't get bothered about it. Could be a natural fit for the barcodes depending on who or what is running the show up there.
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