[Archived] Relegation Watch

[Billy Castell]

I think we are effectively safe if we beat Stoke. Newcastle have to do so much to turn themselves around, as have Boro, that I think unless they have a mental run of 4 unbeaten games, including a couple of wins, their confidence will be shattered. Those two teams seem to be sleepwalking to relegation whoever is manager. They're like one of those deers that are dying after being bitten by a Komodo Dragon-they are still walking about but the bacteria has set in and they'll soon be down. With luck all the teams out of the relegation zone will pick up at least a point and make the gap between safety and relegation that bit bigger.

[thenodrog]

Allardyce has turned us into a very difficult team to beat. Since he's been here, we've only lost 3 league games. However we've been unable to shake ourselves clear of the drop zone because of (a) the chaos wreaked on our league position during the Ince debacle and (b ) too many draws not being enough to overcome that obstacle. Now we're 5 points clear of Newcastle and our fate rests very much in our own hands. If we play as soundly as we have for most of Sam's tenure, then I really don't see us collapsing to the extent required to go down.

Injuries to big players now being the critical issue.

[philipl]

Injuries to big players now being the critical issue.

Two injuries knocking out players at the back would be a serious issue.

Otherwise, it won't be pretty but we would muddle through to safety without MGP, Grella, Roberts, RSC, Emerton and Reid for the remaining seven games.

[gumboots]

Injuries to big players now being the critical issue.

Has Samba got an injury then?

[jodrell]

One thing at the weekend that surprised me is Suderlands fee-fall. just looked at there fixtures and they have a though run in. I Hope they pip The barcodes on the last day

[MCMC1875]

Just done the BBC Sport predictor.......

......Rovers finished 12th on 44 points.

Down.... West Brom, Boro, Newcastle.

FINGERS CROSSED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last 4 results spot on, the rest..............

.......lose 3 away games, draw at Stoke and win 3 home wins.

COME ON YOU BLUES!!!

[RibbleValleyRover]

Had a go at the predictor myself and has us finishing on 45 points in 13th place. The three that went down were West Brom, Newcastle and Boro.

[John]

Personally feeling much more relaxed about things, even though in the back of my mind with our current injury situation, we could struggle to pick up points in the next few games.

Looking at the next 2 fixtures, things could become a bit tighter, as we have difficult away fixtures to Liverpool and Stoke. Some have suggested that the Stoke game should be 3 points, but they are very strong at home.

[SoccerHQ]

7 points will do it so a point at Stoke and two home wins out of the Wigan/Pomey and West Brom games. I think you'll get more than that in any case.

One problem is you seem to be running out of attacking options with Roberts out for a few weeks and MGP also out. With Dunn and RSC also injury prone, then that leaves Benni to score the goals so not much there especially as you have two pysically demanding away games coming up.

Is Sam planning on playing Diouf upfront or just going 4-5-1 and hoping for the best?

[Tom]

For what its worth (which is nothing) I did the predictor thingy and had us going down on goal difference on 39 points, Newcastle were up somewhere around 14th.

I was overly negative but I fear we don't have enough to win games at present.

Newcastles run in isn't as bad as I remembered however if they lose at Stoke I think things may start taking shape.

However I think if we lose and Toon win as I expect then the picture starts looking a bit more worrying.

[DE.]

Where are Newcastle's wins coming from in your predictor?

[EwoodGlory]

Newcastle are missing Enrique (their only left-back) and Stephen Taylor for the Stoke game, meaning Coloccini will have to continue at Centre back and he is looking terrible at the moment (football wise, not just the hair)

Only defenders they have fit

Beye

Bassong (back from injury)

Coloccini

Edgar

Wouldn't fancy them against Fuller and Beattie.

Lovenkrands is also out, and he looks their only decent wide player.

Don't see them winning.

[4ever&ever]

I agree that 5 or 6 points should be enough for us to stay up.

So 2 wins or 1 win and 3 draws.

Newcastle would have to win at least 3 games to catch us. I say go to Stoke for the win but I'd be happy with a draw there as it is a very tough tie and without Roberts or Pedersen then our attacking options are limited.

Maybe a draw away at City or Wigan and then a win against West Brom, Portsmouth should be enough although a win against Wigan and we just need a draw from the other 2 games.

[Tom]

Where are Newcastle's wins coming from in your predictor?

To be honest I had Newcastle winning all but 2 just to see how it would look down there if they pull out of it. I really tried to do it on a worst case scenario and even then we only were behing Sunderland on GD.

I just don't want to be counting any chickens yet, as you can see my cup is half empty

[DE.]

Considering they've only won 6 all season, i'd be stunned if they picked up anymore than 2 wins out of their run in. They do not look like winning, and haven't looked like it all season. Shearer alone won't change that, as he'd need to bring an entire new squad with him.

They must beat Stoke saturday if they are to realistically stay up. Anything less than a win and I can't see them surviving.

[John]

Interesting Gareth Southgate interview with Martin Samuel below. Also has Steve Gibson talking about Boro's finances.

Gareth Southgate, one of football's nice guys, faces up to his demons as the drop looms

[thenodrog]

Interesting Gareth Southgate interview with Martin Samuel below. Also has Steve Gibson talking about Boro's finances.

Gareth Southgate, one of football's nice guys, faces up to his demons as the drop looms

Can't afford sympathy for anyone in our position but after us staying up I'd be happy to see Boro do likewise. I think I'd enjoy sinking a few pints with both Southgate and Gibson. Nice guys in comparison to their equivalents at the likes of Newcastle, City, Lpool and Spurs etc.

[dave birch]

Anyone else think that that photo of Gibson has a remarkable resemblance to Mr Bean?

[DE.]

His chairman, Steve Gibson, is [a nice guy] too. Asked to pick a club to survive the relegation scrap, most neutrals would identify Middlesbrough for this reason.

I don't think so, if anything it's a reason I'd identify them FOR relegation. Sometimes it doesn't pay to be nice. It would have been "nice" if we'd let Ince stay on and continue his job, given him more time as he continually requested, but it wouldn't have been the right decision.

When millions upon millions of pounds are involved, nice isn't good enough.

[dingles staying down 4ever]

He makes an interesting point about his team having six player which has cost over £5million. Just goes to show how well Rovers have done just to survive in this league with so little spent on players.

[thenodrog]

I don't think so, if anything it's a reason I'd identify them FOR relegation. Sometimes it doesn't pay to be nice. It would have been "nice" if we'd let Ince stay on and continue his job, given him more time as he continually requested, but it wouldn't have been the right decision.

When millions upon millions of pounds are involved, nice isn't good enough.

Correct. I don't think ANYBODY would EVER associate the old RFW with the word 'nice'.

[John]

Last night, they had a long discussion on relegation matters on the Setanta football show. Naturally most of the chat revolved around Newcastle and the Shearer appointment. They kept pointing out that one relegation-threatened team usually goes on a run at this time of year, referring to Fulham last year and West Ham recently. Their view is that Newcastle with the 'new manager affect' plus winnable home games, could be that team. Newcastle home fixtures below:

Newcastle v Portsmouth

Newcastle v Middlesbrough

Newcastle v Fulham

Neil Warnock's view was that we have too many good players to go down.

[1864roverite]

So that would mean, and we accept that they wont gain an away point, that Rovers would require 4 points to send NUFC spinning out of the league or at least avoid the trap door.

I think Sunderland and Newcastle have the biggest fears of the drop, followed by Pompy, Rovers and Hull.

a big day today.

However, imagine this. What a pity WBA havent won more games as to see Boro, Sundernad and the barcodes sinking would be simply magnificent for the North East

[Tom]

I think people may start panicking tonight as things will probably be down to 2 points, the key is to not panic though our fate is still in our hands with our home games

[Anti-Dingle-Brigade]

It was pretty obvious it was going to get tight again with the easy games around us today and us playing Liverpool.